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 If you have a question, send it to askba@baseballamerica.com. Please include your full name and hometown if you'd like your letter to be considered for use in an upcoming column. Also, please understand that we can't respond to every question. By Jim Callis Sept. 30, 2003 Like anyone else who writes about baseball, I'm compelled to offer my postseason predictions. Here goes (and I picked these before the games started today): Division Series
Championship Series
World Series
After writing that, I took a quick glance at ESPN.com's expert predictions and realized that my picks are a perfect match for Jim Caple's. Jim is a talented and witty writer, not to mention a former BA correspondent, so I could have done much worse. Now that the regular season has ended and we've already begun prospect season (meaning my life becomes dominated by minor league Top 20 Prospects lists, Draft Report Cards and the 2004 Prospect Handbook), Ask BA will switch to a once-a-week format. We'll load up on questions today as we continue to explain the rationale behind our Top 20 picks.
Tom Bellman Cincinnati Correspondent Bill Ballew handled the PL for us and had this to say: Paduch definitely received consideration and was among the near-misses for the list. He was Billings' most consistent pitcher this year before throwing the no-hitter to win the Pioneer League championship for the Mustangs. The Reds like his aggressiveness and his willingness to pitch inside, especially for a pitcher in his first pro season. His fastball isn't overpowering, residing in the 88-90 mph range and topping out at 91-92, which had a small effect on his ranking. He works both sides of the plate, though his slider is a work in progress and his changeup is an average pitch in terms of depth. Paduch was drafted out of college (Concordia, Ill.), making him one of the older pitchers in the PL. Add everything together and he's a guy with definite potential, but his ceiling is simply not as high as other guys' in the Top 20.
Scott Stewart Carlsbad, Calif. Let's go to associate editor Will Kimmey, who put together our NWL rankings: Vericker, 22, was one of the last players to get pushed off the Top 20 list, with the reason being his one-dimensional game. Like teammate Jesse Floyd, who ranked among the league's better pitchers statistically, Vericker was signed as a nondrafted college senior. He spent four years at Point Loma Nazarene, an NAIA school in San Diego, leaving as the school's all-time leader in homers (34), runs (151), hits (233) and walks (147). The 6-foot-3, 205-pounder kept hitting at Salem-Keizer, tying club records with 19 doubles and 15 homers, which also led the NWL. Vericker showed good knowledge of the strike zone and solid power to all fields, but his manager, Joe Strain, did say that S-K's park was friendly to lefthanded hitters, which benefited the slugger. Other managers pointed out a few holes in Vericker's swing, but the biggest drawback was his lack of a position. A below-average defender in the outfield and at first base, he served as DH for nearly half the games he played. He's not very athletic and doesn't run well, though the former college closer does have the arm to play right field. "Basically, you just have to keep him at DH until he stops hitting," one manager said. Certainly his bat will have to carry him, but it might not go that far with a National League club. Long-term, Vericker might end up a solid minor league power hitter who bounces around different organizations and peaks in Triple-A.
Richard Lyons Mesa, Ariz. This one's for me, as I covered the MWL. One thing to keep in mind is that it's much more difficult to crack the Top 20 in a 14-team league than it is in other, smaller circuits. Rosario just missed the list and compares favorably to pitchers Jon Connolly (No. 19) and Colt Griffin (No. 20). Rosario is just 19, can reach the high 90s with his fastball and at times shows a tough slider. But I left him off because scouts didn't like the lack of movement on his fastball or the inconsistency of his slider, and they were very skeptical of his listed age. Also, for a guy with his stuff, it's a bit of a red flag when he averages just 6.7 strikeouts per nine innings. He has a high ceiling if his birthdate is correct, but still has a ways to go. Nippert and Doyle both pitched well, but at age 22 and coming from Division I college programs, they had much more experience than most of their opponents. Nippert continues to look like a 15th-round steal from the 2002 draft. He averages 93 mph with his fastball and flashes a hard curveball, though his changeup is still rudimentary. He missed eight weeks after having a benign tumor removed from his back. Doyle is more polished than Rosario and Nippert, especially with his changeup and curveball, and he's lefthanded. But he nibbled too much and didn't overmatch MWL hitters at all with just 5.6 strikeouts per nine innings.
Elliot Legow Youngstown, Ohio National writer Josh Boyd is on his honeymoon, so we can't get his reasoning behind his SAL list. But intern Chris Kline can explain what happened in the CL: Cooper's numbers were very impressive in both leagues this season and he is a serious prospect, but he failed to crack either Top 20 for two reasons. The sheer volume and quality of prospects in the 16-team SAL limited his chances on that list. In the CL, he just didn't get a lot of support. He was promoted at midseason, then fouled a ball off his right knee in early August, causing him to miss a few games and limiting him to DH for much of the remainder of the season. Cooper is certainly among the elite power prospects in the Indians organization. The lefthanded hitter has improved his knowledge of the strike zone and is beginning to spray the ball to all fields. He belted 17 doubles at Kinston, 14 of which were hit to left field or left-center. He still needs to improve his approach, and at times his swing can get ugly. He also has improved defensively, working with former big leaguer Lou Frazier, though his weak arm limits Cooper to left field.
Paul Colbert Bandon, Ore. It's assistant editor Alan Matthews' turn, as he compiled the FSL Top 20: I asked about both players and received negative responses almost across the board. Only one manager said Granderson deserved consideration for the list. He thought he was a player similar to Vero Beach outfielder Franklin Gutierrez, but with less projectable tools. Outside of his ability to control the strike zone and lay off pitchers' pitches, Kelly's name wasn't mentioned in either Top 20 calls or Best Tools calls. That leads me to believe that he'll be exposed as he climbs through the minors, likely next year at Double-A Erie, by pitchers with better command in and out of the zone. Even Lakeland manager Gary Green said that shortstop Anderson Hernandez had the best chance at a successful major league career of the players on his roster this year.
Dave Alan San Francisco I'm not sure why Dave is copping an attitude, but I'll answer his question so I can make a point here. Correia allowed nine hits, three walks and three runs in 5 2/3 innings to the worst offense in baseball, and that's shutting the Dodgers down? Well, that's not the point I'm trying to make. Where Dave is even further off base is in his assumption that the EL Top 20 will be lucky to produce just 10 big leaguers. That's just absurd. The first year we started going 20 deep on the league rankings was 2000. Nineteen of the 20 guys on our EL list that season have played in the majors, including C.C. Sabathia, Joel Pineiro and Brad Wilkerson. From the 2001 list, the top 19 prospects reached the bigs. Even last year's Top 20 already has graduated 14 players to the majors, with others such as Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Youkilis sure to follow in the near future. In other words, Correia and Lowry have yet to cement the fact that they'll have more of a big league career than half of the current Top 20. And now news editor J.J. Cooper will explain why they didn't crack his Top 20: Correia was a lot closer to making the list than Lowry. He ranks with Akron shortstop Hector Luna, Bowie second baseman Mike Fontenot and Akron righthander Kazuhito Tadano as guys who just missed the list. Correia has a good fastball (91-93 mph) and slider, but his changeup needs some work. He wasn't really dominant in Double-A and no one I talked to really raved about him. He's showing better stuff in the majors than he did in Double-A. In hindsight, considering his major league success, could he have gone on the back end of the Top 20? Sure, but no one I talked to thought of him as more than a No. 3 or 4 starter, and few actually mentioned him. Lowry wouldn't have made a Top 30. Very few managers talked about him and the scouts I spoke to didn't even bring him up when I asked about other guys whom they saw as having good chances at major league careers. Besides the close misses I already mentioned, Binghamton righthander Bob Keppel and second baseman Victor Diaz, and even Akron third baseman Corey Smith got a lot more support. I think the guys in the EL saw Lowry get torched too much to be impressed by his solid stuff. He showed a nice arm but was very hittable (4.72 ERA, .285 opponent average).
Peter Toms Ottawa I think Cuba and the United States are the favorites to grab the two qualifying spots, and our international expert, national writer John Manuel, concurs. But anything can happen in a single-elimination format where eight of 12 teams advance to the playoff round. The two teams that make the Olympics will have to win quarterfinal and semifinal games, where one bad outing by a team's pitcher or a hot start by the opposition's can produce an upset. At the last Olympic qualifier (the 1999 Pan American Games), Canada was the only undefeated team in round-robin play and lost 3-2 to Cuba in the semifinals. They'll be a legitimate contender in Panama again this year, with the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Nicaragua, Puerto Rico and Venezuela also in the running. Aruba, Bahamas, Brazil and Panama look like also-rans. Unlike Team USA, which will whittle its roster from 31 to 24 players after playing some exhibition games in the Arizona Fall League, Canada is choosing its squad without any tryout process per se. Team Canada has announced 22 of its players so far (big league organization in parentheses), and likely will add another pitcher and catcher: Lefthanders (2): Phil Devey (Dodgers), Mike Kusiewicz (Athletics). Righthanders (7): Jason Dickson (Somerset/Atlantic League), Brett Gray (Reds), Shawn Hill (Expos), Mike Johnson (Giants), Chris Mears (Tigers), Mike Meyers (Cubs), John Ogiltree (Blue Jays). Catchers (1): Pete LaForest (Devil Rays) Infielders (7): Todd Betts (Yakult/Japan), Stubby Clapp (Braves), Hyung Cho (Mariners), Matt Logan (Blue Jays), Justin Morneau (Twins), Kevin Nicholson (Pirates), Scott Thorman (Braves). Outfielders (5): Rob Butler (Toronto/Intercounty Baseball League), Rob Ducey (retired), Jeff Guiel (Angels), Ryan Radmanovich (Somerset/Atlantic League), Jeremy Ware (Expos). Morneau is the most talented player on the team, which includes six Pan Am veterans in Betts, Clapp, Mears, Meyers, Radmanovich and Ware. Several of the best young Canadian pitchers—including Erik Bedard (Orioles), Jeff Francis (Rockies), Adam Loewen (Orioles) and Vince Perkins (Blue Jays)—weren't made available to the team because their organizations felt they had pitched enough innings in 2003. Sept. 24, 2003 While watching the Angels push the Mariners to the brink of elimination yesterday, I heard the Anaheim announcers talk about how there was little doubt their club would bounce back in 2004. But I think the Angels are more likely to play closer to their 2003 performance (75-84) than to their 2002 World Series championship level. Yes, Anaheim has had some tough injuries this year. But that's not unusual. Last season, the Angels got career years from a number of players and caught fire in the postseason. Give them Troy Glaus and the overrated Darin Erstad for all of 2003, and they still would have found reaching .500 a challenge. They've got one star player in their lineup and rotation, and Garret Anderson alone isn't going to lead them back to the playoffs. This is going to be the lone Ask BA this week, because I'm headed to national writer Josh Boyd's wedding this weekend. But first, let's get to your questions about our league Top 20 Prospects lists. And keep them coming.
Neil Skaggs Normal, Ill. I was surprised to see Kingsport righthander Yusmiero Petit left off the Appalachian League Top 20. I saw a pretty good scouting report on him, and he put up phenomenal numbers for Kingsport (3-3, 2.32, 65-8 strikeout-walk ratio in 62 innings, .219 opponent average). In addition, if his listed age is to be believed, he was the youngest player on Kingsport at 18. Why was he left off? Did it have anything to do with his only being 6 feet tall? Jesse Alson-Milkman Brooklyn I was surprised to see Burlington lefty Aaron Laffey and righty Nick Pesco left off the Appy Top 20 list. Both of them had sick stats, especially Laffey as a high school draftee. I know the lead said that Laffey just missed the list, but where would Laffey and Pesco have fallen if you guys had listed more than 20 Appy prospects? Why did they fall short of what it took to make the top 20? Dennis Nosco St. Louis Bill Ballew is one of our more versatile correspondents. He wrote the Appy Top 20, and we'll let him tackle all three questions at once: The Appalachian League featured more balance than at any point in recent memory. As a result, no fewer than 10 players who would have made the Top 20 in past years were left off, simply because of the lack of room. At the same time, there weren't many prospects who stood above the crowd. When there are numerous players with similar perceived ceilings, we tend to favor the guys who 1) received the most mentions from opposing managers, and 2) received the highest acclaim from their managers when compared with their teammates. In a Rookie league, draft position, age and projectability have to be weighed more than in more advanced leagues, simply because there isn't as much history on these guys. Haerther was one of the top players to not make the list. He was Johnson City's best hitter and batted third in the lineup. He's a young hitter with above-average bat speed and the potential to hit for power at higher levels. His hands work well and his average foot speed is deceiving. The biggest drawback at this point for Haerther is his defense. He moved from third base to left field and had some difficulties, though he displayed plus arm strength. As a 20-year-old who's still searching for a defensive home and won't be able to play a premium position, Haerther lost out to guys such as Barton, who played most of the season as a 17-year-old, was drafted in the first round, hits for power and average, and plays behind the plate. Petit is another guy who easily could have made the list. He showed good command at a young age, and went on to have success at short-season Brooklyn after pitching at Kingsport. His arm strength is good but not great, and his somewhat soft body concerned some managers regarding its long-term projectability. That said, Petit could be on the verge of jumping on the Mets' fast track. Laffey and Pesco got overshadowed by teammates Adam Miller and Rafael Perez. Pesco was considered the third-best pitching prospect on the Burlington club, while Laffey ranked fourth. Pesco's shortcoming is a lack of overall command. He constantly pitches from behind in the count and throws many more pitches than he should. On the positive side, his fastball resides in the 89-91 mph range, and he has a good changeup and average slider. He's also an excellent fielder, with Burlington manager Rouglas Odor saying Pesco looks like a shortstop on the mound. Laffey barely qualified for the list with 34 innings. He got off to a rough start before finding his groove. He throws in the high 80s, but relies too often on a changeup that he'll throw at any time in the count. His curveball is decent and getting better. When matched up against the prospect competition in the league, he fell just short.
Greg Dunn Austin We'll turn this over to Michael Levesque, who authored our NY-P Top 20: Of the three pitchers, Albers received the most support from league managers. He was in a group of four pitchers (with Brooklyn's Brian Bannister, Aberdeen's Brian Finch and Williamsport's Yoann Torrealba) who just missed making the list. Albers has a live arm, low-90s fastball and decent slider. He works both sides of the plate well but managers raised concerns about his soft body and approach on the mound. Hirsh was viewed more as a setup man in the majors. He has a good frame and a smooth arm action, and he runs his fastball into the 92-93 mph range. But all his secondary pitches are below average and his heater is usually straight. DeLeon never came up in any conversations. Back to me . . . I've written the Astros Top 30 list for our Prospect Handbook for the last three years, so I can comment on DeLeon. He has a strong arm, but this is his third year in pro ball and he has yet to reach a full-season league. He repeated the NY-P after an inconsistent season there in 2002, and there have been concerns about his makeup. He could make it back onto the Astros list in the 2004 Prospect Handbook, but I'm not surprised he didn't make the NY-P Top 20, given the circumstances. Sept. 20, 2003 Good for the Expos for not caving into Major League Baseball's veiled blackmail threats. Playing 22 "home games" in San Juan—that's 1,916 miles from Montreal—put them at a significant disadvantage this season, and the players unanimously voted against allowing that to happen again. MLB responded predictably. "Playing all of the games in Montreal will have a negative economic impact and will also have an negative economic impact on the operations of the team, including the makeup of the roster," MLB president Bob DuPuy told The Gazette (Montreal). But did anyone expect MLB to allow the Expos to retain Vladimir Guerrero and Javier Vazquez and Jose Vidro? Anyone that gullible must not have noticed that MLB wouldn't permit Montreal to make a single September callup despite being in wild-card contention. This is just another reminder of why MLB shouldn't own the Expos.
Marshall Lin Vancouver, B.C. I'm not concerned. Mauer has just nine homers in 277 pro games, but he's also a career .330 hitter who has drawn more walks (129) than strikeouts (101) despite always being one of the youngest players in his league. He's still just 20, and power is often the last tool to develop, particularly with gifted lefthanded hitters. If I had to pick, I'd rather have a young player show hitting aptitude before power, because it's easier to teach someone how to drive the ball than to make good, consistent contact. Mauer isn't trying to avoid strikeouts. Right now, he has a pronounced tendency to hit the ball on the ground. According to SportsTicker, in 2003 he hit 1.73 ground balls for every fly ball, a borderline extreme ratio. Mauer just needs to add some loft to his swing, and he's such an advanced hitter that he should be able to do that without ruining his stroke. In fact, his G/F ratio declined from 2.42 in high Class A to 1.33 in Double-A, so he may be starting to make that adjustment. He won't be Mike Piazza, but I project Mauer as a .300-plus hitter with 20 homers annually and Gold Glove defense. That would make him a superstar catcher.
Brian Clevinger Phoenix No worries on this front, either. Mathis was 180 pounds when he was drafted 33rd overall out of high school, which is more than 6-footers Mike Lieberthal (170 pounds) and Jason Kendall (175) weighed when they were prep first-round picks. Scouts had concerns about Lieberthal's and Kendall's lack of size, but they put on 15-20 pounds in the minors and became multiple all-stars. Kendall has been one of baseball's most durable catchers, while Lieberthal has been in and out of the lineup with injuries unrelated to his size. My guess is that Mathis will weigh roughly 195 pounds when he arrives in the major leagues and his size won't hold him back. Physical development also will turn some of his doubles into homers, and he already has hit the ball with more authority than Kendall or Lieberthal did at the same stage of their careers.
Bill Mangione-Smith Los Angeles We've started to post our league Top 20 lists, and we always welcome questions about the process. So keep bringing them on. At the lower levels of player development, performance must be weighed against age and upside. Here's how editor Allan Simpson, who wrote our GCL Top 20, explains Mejia's omission: Mejia can swing the bat and can run a bit, but he has few other redeeming qualities. This was his fourth year in pro ball, and it was a roller-coaster ride. He started the season at low Class A West Michigan, was sent down to extended spring training, played in the GCL, was moved to short-season Oneonta, went back to the GCL and finished the year where he started at West Michigan. It should be noted that he hit only .200 with one homer in 115 at-bats in the Midwest League. He's prone to striking out and is undisciplined at the plate and on the bases. He's 21 (older than any prospect on the GCL Top 20), and one manager said he looked like he was 30. He can't play shortstop—he did it only out of necessity in the GCL—and finding a position for him will be a challenge. Sept. 16, 2003 All 16 minor league championships have been settled, and just two organizations can claim multiple titles. Mariners affiliates captured championships in the Double-A Texas (San Antonio) and high Class A California (Inland Empire) leagues. Braves clubs won playoffs in the low Class A South Atlantic (Rome) and Rookie-level Gulf Coast leagues.
Richard Wambach St. Charles, Ill. What are the reasons for Joe Borchard's struggles this season? He got off to a good start but he put up very disappointing numbers. Does he still have a shot to be the player he was projected to be? Alex Pedicini Cotuit, Mass. Borchard did have a rough second stint at Triple-A Charlotte, as he hit .253/.307/.398. Not exactly what the White Sox had in mind when they handed him a record $5.3 million bonus in 2000. His batting average dropped 19 points from 2002, while his on-base percentage dipped 42 and his slugging percentage decreased by 100. Whether he'll ever be able to tap into his considerable raw power is in doubt for one simple reason: Borchard can't control the strike zone. Pitchers know he'll chase pitches, so they don't throw him strikes. His plate discipline has eroded as he has moved up through the minors: Year G K BB K/BB 2000 27 21 13 1.62 2001 133 158 67 2.36 2002 135 153 56 2.73 2003 130 121 32 3.78 The White Sox traded for Carl Everett to play center field, in part because Borchard wasn't ready. Few scouts see him as a legitimate center fielder anyway, which is a problem because Chicago has Carlos Lee and Magglio Ordonez to man its corners. DH? Not with both Paul Konerko and Frank Thomas around. Though he's a switch-hitter, Borchard also has scuffled against lefthanders since reaching Triple-A. He has hit just .207 with eight homers in 241 at-bats against southpaws with Charlotte. In the majors, he has gone 5-for-25 (.200) with 13 strikeouts against lefties. Despite all this adversity, Borchard hasn't made any noise about jumping to the NFL. Though he was once considered a potential early first-round pick as a quarterback, his transition back to the gridiron might not go as well as Henson's. Borchard started only one game and attempted just 120 passes in two years with the Stanford football team. By comparison, Henson made eight starts and threw 374 passes at Michigan.
Dave Rainer Huntington Beach, Calif. He wasn't a No. 1 overall pick like Delmon Young, but Delwyn (no relation) is making a name for himself. Arguably the best hitter in the fertile California community college crop in 2002, Young signed as a fourth-round pick out of Santa Barbara CC. In two seasons as a pro, he has hit .315/.381/.530 while facing more experienced pitchers. While he could draw a few more walks, he has been a consistent line drive hitter with very good power for a second baseman. Young is very similar to Diaz, and his continued success made dealing Diaz to the Mets for Jeromy Burnitz an easier decision. Like Diaz, Young still hasn't sold scouts that he'll be able to play second base in the majors. He probably has enough bat to move to third base, but Young's offense will stand out more if he can remain at second. He's just not fluid in the field at this point. As part of his Scouting Department series, Josh Boyd recently ranked Young as the ninth-best second-base prospect in baseball. That seems fair, though he'd have moved down another notch had Josh included 2003 draftees (Rickie Weeks). The Dodgers have a burgeoning farm system, so considering that as well as Young's relative inexperience and defensive uncertainty, I'd guess that he'll rank in the 11-15 range when we do our organization Top 30 lists during the offseason.
Nick Lucca Ambler, Pa. Taveras ranked fourth on our Indians Top 30 list in our inaugural Prospect Handbook in 2001, slid to 11th in 2002 and didn't appear in last year's edition. In fact, his stock dropped so far (and Cleveland added so much talent) that we listed Taveras fifth among center fielders on the organization's minor league depth chart. He'll certainly be back in next year's book after hitting .282 with a .381 on-base percentage and 57 steals in 69 attempts at high Class A Kinston as a 21-year-old. Taveras has the speed and patience to be a good leadoff man, and he's an exciting center fielder. Managers rated him the best baserunner, fastest baserunner and best defensive outfielder in the Carolina League. But I still don't see Taveras making much of an impact in the major leagues unless he gets a lot stronger. His .350 slugging percentage this year is Jason Tyneresque. Interestingly, the Indians moved Taveras from the leadoff spot to third in the order in the second half of the season. The move didn't help, as he hit .268 with a feeble .283 slugging percentage in the No. 3 slot. Sept. 13, 2003 The Brewers promoted No. 2 overall pick Rickie Weeks to the majors yesterday, so he'll get a brief taste of the majors before returning to the minors next year. Ryan Wagner has gotten a lot of attention for rocketing to the Reds 46 days after they made him the No. 14 selection in June, but the second player from the 2003 draft to reach the majors has done so with little fanfare. The Expos surprised other teams by taking Chad Cordero with the 20th choice, but he fit two important criteria for a team with an uncertain future. He signed quickly for below-slot money ($1.35 million) and was close to being ready for the majors. Promoted from high Class A on Aug. 30, he has used his command and deception to post a 2.70 ERA and 7-2 strikeout-walk ratio in seven games and 6 2/3 innings. Opponents are batting just .174 against him.
Ryan Patton Mechanicsburg, Pa. Whenever I see Mechanicsburg, I immediately think of Shawn Abner, whom I mentioned in my most recent column. Anyway, back to the question . . . The word out of Pittsburgh is that Burnett has only discomfort in his elbow, related to fatigue rather than, say, a torn ligament that would require Tommy John surgery. But GM David Littlefield's comments that Burnett has had similar problems in the past is a bit of a red flag. The Pirates have had to shut down Burnett temporarily before, and at 6-foot-1 and 170 pounds he isn't the strongest pitcher. Burnett has succeeded at every step in the minors and had a fine 14-6, 3.21 Double-A season at age 20, but his lack of dominance leaves his long-term value in doubt. His strong suits are his changeup and command, and he is lefthanded. But he also throws his fastball in the high 80s and his slider isn't an out pitch. Opponents hit .265 against him in 2003 (albeit with just two homers) and he averaged just 4.9 walks per nine innings. It has been trendy for a while to compare southpaws with Burnett's stuff to Tom Glavine. But when Glavine was a 20-year-old in Double-A, he held hitters to a .237 average and fanned 7.1 per nine innings.
Matthew Mougalian Los Angeles You need to read Josh Boyd's excellent The Scouting Department series, because in the latest edition he ranked the top 20 shortstops in the minors and put Crosby ahead of Greene. On my upcoming Pacific Coast League Top 20 Prospects list, I'll have them in the same order. Crosby is the top position player in the Triple-A circuit. Scouts still aren't sold that either Crosby or Greene is a true shortstop because they lack classic range for the position, but both guys get the job done with their instincts, hands and arms. Offensively, Crosby has more pop, a better concept of the strike zone and a touch more speed. Though Crosby entered pro ball a year before Greene, he's actually younger. Both players were 23 this season. As for the catchers, that's a more difficult call because Quiroz (21) is two years older than Navarro (19). I'd give Quiroz a slight edge because he has more power, though Navarro makes better contact and should hit for more average. Both have good arms and move well behind the plate, so they won't have to switch positions.
Justin Riddick Alamo, Tenn. A very intriguing question. I'll answer it in reverse order, factoring in the likelihood that these guys reach their considerable potential. Every possible combination for the top three guys is defensible. 5. Ramirez (seasonal age: 25). What you see is what you get. Ramirez has 20-25 homer power, but he's never going to hit for average or be a plus defender at third base. His .300-34-112 season in 2001 looks like an aberration. 4. Cruz (24). I've always been a huge Cruz supporter, and I still think he has the stuff to be a star. His fastball, slider and changeup all are plus pitches at times, but he just hasn't thrown strikes consistently enough. 3. Choi (24). Concussion or no concussion, Choi has been just as productive as Eric Karros and Randall Simon this season. If the Cubs give him their first-base job and leave him alone, Choi could provide 30 homers and 100 RBIs right away. 2. Patterson (23). Before he tore up his left knee, Patterson was having an all-star caliber year. His .839 on-base plus slugging percentage ranks fourth among National League starting center fielders, and he had a shot at a 30-30 season while playing good defense. I still wonder how good he can become without better plate discipline, however, as his walk rate of 1 per 23 plate appearances would be tied for the second-worst in the NL if he qualified. 1. Zambrano (22). I've never fully believed Zambrano's listed age, and several people in baseball are skeptical as well. What is certain is that he has been just as dominant as Prior down the stretch (7-1, 1.69 since the all-star break). If Zambrano can maintain his improved command to go with his nasty fastball/slider combination, Kerry Wood will be the third-best starter in Chicago's rotation. Sept. 10, 2003 Remember all the early discussion about Jesse Foppert and his mysterious drop in velocity? Foppert and the Giants claimed he never threw as hard as reported in 2002, when scouts repeatedly clocked him in the mid-90s and he topped out at 99 mph. Different radar guns will give different readings on the same pitch, but I was surprised to hear both the pitcher and the club claim that he didn't have that kind of gas. I talked to too many people who saw him throw hard last year to believe that the high-80s to low-90s fastball he showed in 2003 was his typical stuff. Now that we know he needs Tommy John surgery, his drop in velocity makes more sense. In other news, what has worked for one former BA College Player of the Year has inspired another. Brooks Kieschnick's effectiveness as a two-way player has David McCarty wanting to try the same thing next year. The difference is that Kieschnick was the No. 1 pitcher on his University of Texas teams, while McCarty never pitched at Stanford. Since high school, the only record I can find of him taking the mound is two games and two innings at Triple-A Toledo in 1999. McCarty, who is a rare lefthanded thrower/righthanded hitter, estimates that he has an 88-90 mph fastball. He has been working out in the bullpen and may attend instructional league to work on his pitching.
Wilbur Miller Silver Spring, Md. I've never seen a complete definition of the rule either, so I called Major League Baseball. MLB told me that there are three main components to the PTBNL rule:
As for Stewart, he still can be the PTBNL in the Giles trade because he was recalled/not to report on Sept. 5. Don't ask me to explain the intricacies of recall/not to report, but the bottom line is he wasn't placed on San Diego's active roster.
Mike Marinaro Tampa We always caution that a draft needs four or five years to play itself out, but that never stops us from evaluating them. At this point, I don't see any reason to doubt the consensus before the 2003 draft, which was that this year's crop was very average and stronger in pitchers than position players. That was the consensus and that's still my take on the 2002 draft as well. Considering that there's always more attrition among pitchers than hitters, those drafts may not look quite as strong in a few years as they do now. Both pale in comparison to 2001, which started off with Joe Mauer and Mark Prior. And both are better than 2000, which might produce just one true star among its first-rounders (Rocco Baldelli). Obviously, a draft runs deeper than the first round, but the first round also is a pretty good indicator.
Eric Olson San Diego Megrew isn't 18 but he's 19, so he was young for the Pioneer League. He had a nice year, going 5-3 while ranking second in the league in strikeouts (99 in 77 innings) and eighth in ERA (3.40). Opponents batted just .222 against him. A Rhode Island high school product, Megrew baffled older hitters with a changeup. He's not overpowering, as his high-80s fastball was his third-best pitch at times, behind his changeup and curveball. He has very good command for his age. At 6-foot-6 and 210 pounds there's still plenty of room for projection, so Megrew should add some velocity over the next few years. Megrew will make our Pioneer League Top 20 Prospects list, but you'll have to wait a couple of more weeks before we release all our rankings and scouting reports. Sept. 5, 2003 With little more than three weeks remaining in the regular season, just two of the eight playoff berths are sewn up. I'll look into my crystal ball and predict the postseason future. AL East: Yankees. New York is vulnerable but should win the division unless it gets swept this weekend. AL Central: White Sox. Chicago has a much stronger big three (Buehrle, Colon, Loaiza) than its competitors. AL West: Athletics. Oakland has made its trademark late surge despite a suddenly lackluster offense. AL wild card: Red Sox. The Mariners haven't recovered from a four-game sweep at Boston in late August. NL East: Braves. Though Atlanta has the best record in baseball, none of its pitchers frightens me. NL Central: Astros. Houston is the most balanced NL Central club, but the race shouldn't be this close. NL West: Giants. No front office is as effective and underhyped as San Francisco's. NL wild card: Phillies. This is the toughest of all, because they're combusting and should have pulled away already.
Victor Wang Bloomington, Minn. Based on how they've performed so far, I'd say it's no contest. Willis made the all-star team, he's a more compelling story and he has a fascinating delivery—but Webb has outpitched him. Their W-L records don't reflect that, but all of the other statistics do: W L ERA GS QS QS% H/9 BB/9 K/9 OPS Webb 8 7 2.57 23 19 .83 7.0 3.2 9.1 .596 Willis 11 6 3.32 22 13 .59 8.4 3.2 8.1 .697 The Marlins have a better chance to make the postseason than the Diamondbacks do, but Webb has had a better rookie season than Willis without nearly the acclaim. Writers may have a hard time diverting their attention from the wins and the hype, so Willis could win the award. If I were voting (not that Baseball America writers get a ballot), I'd choose Webb, Willis and Brewers outfielder Scott Podsednik, in that order.
Elliot Legow Youngstown, Ohio Elliot always asks Indians questions, so we know where his heart lies. I'd point out that Matsui does fit the major league definition of "rookie", though I'm not sure he has a lock on the award. While he's eligible for the award and does benefit from the spotlight on New York, I wonder if he'll be held to a higher standard by the writers. A certified Japanese superstar, "Godzilla" arrived in the United States with huge expectations. He filled a hole in the Yankees lineup, but he hasn't been anywhere close to a force. Here's how his numbers this year compare to his prorated Japanese career stats: G AB R HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG Japan 138 498 98 36 97 92 102 .304 .413 .582 2003 138 542 72 15 92 53 76 .284 .348 .437 (Before Joe from the Bronx writes me to point out the Matsui has been "clutch," let me point out that RBIs are a team-dependent stat and Matsui benefits from batting behind on-base machines Jason Giambi and Bernie Williams, and sometimes Jorge Posada.) Matsui hasn't been as productive as fellow AL rookies Gerut, Mark Teixeira or Angel Berroa, and if you appropriately factor in speed and defense, Rocco Baldelli has been as good as Matsui. If I had an AL ballot, my order would be Berroa, Gerut, Teixeira. Cleveland had so many prospects when we were putting together that Top 30 that we were bound to leave off someone deserving, and Gerut is making us look bad. (Though we did mention him as part of The 31st Team, scouting reports left on the Prospect Handbook's cutting-room floor.) I always thought of him as more of a gap power guy, and his career highs in the minors were 11 homers and a .465 slugging percentage. Now he's jumped to 19 homers and a .498 SLG. He'll be 26 in two weeks, so he may not get a whole lot better, but he has established himself as a solid big league outfielder.
James Connelly Harwich, Mass. Alvarez probably won't be a star but he can be a useful big leaguer and can get there very quickly. One of the reasons the Red Sox focused on polished college players from major programs in this year's draft was to improve the very thin upper levels of their system as soon as possible. Lefthanders who know how to pitch can reach the majors very quickly, and he could move through the Boston system as rapidly as Casey Fossum did. That would put Alvarez in Fenway Park in the second half of 2005. Alvarez doesn't throw as hard as Fossum, but he does a fine job of mixing three average to above-average pitches: an 86-88 mph sinker, a curveball and changeup. His curve is his best pitch, and his command and mechanics are very good. A second-team All-America this spring at Long Beach State, Alvarez continued to perform well after signing for $700,000. Operating on tight pitch counts, he didn't allow an earned run in 19 innings over nine starts in the short-season New York-Penn League. Opponents batted just .138, and he fanned 19 while permitting just one unintentional walk. Alvarez still has to prove he can succeed at higher levels without an overpowering pitch, but he's off to a promising start. Sept. 3, 2003 I may have pharyngitis, but I think I'll be able to gut out today's edition of Ask BA. I got a little overly excited about Kwantlen (B.C.) JC's mother lode of talent when I was putting together junior college all-star teams, and I mistakenly listed Corey Koskie as a draft-and-follow. Thanks to Twins scout Howard Norsetter, who signed Koskie straight out of the 1994 draft as a 26th-rounder, for pointing out my mistake. So put Koskie at third base on the juco team of draft signees (goodbye, Shea Hillenbrand). I'll slide Chris Woodward (Mount San Antonio, Calif.) onto the DFE club at the hot corner.
Jim Goulart Assonet, Mass. Jim is part of the team that puts together the excellent Brewerfan.net website. He's their minor league research director, so he should be answering questions like these himself. But I'll bail him out this time. Before the Brewers this year, the last organization with three minor league MVPs was the 1995 Mets with Butch Huskey (International), Jay Payton (Eastern) and Jarrod Patterson (Appalachian). New York also had the pitchers of the year in the IL (Jason Isringhausen) and EL (Paul Wilson). Unfortunately for the Mets, none of those players wound up doing much for them. The Brewers have reason to be optimistic—though surely the Mets were as well. Milwaukee's three MVPs are yet another accomplishment for baseball's most improved organization. BA readers should be very familiar with Hart and Fielder, but they probably don't know as much about Palmisano. There were some scouts who believed that the 20-year-old Palmisano was as attractive as any catcher available in the 2003 draft. A third-round pick from Broward (Fla.) CC, he leads the Rookie-level Pioneer League in hitting (.391), on-base percentage (.458) and slugging (.592). He's very athletic for a catcher and possesses average speed and opposite-field power. He doesn't have an exceptionally strong arm, but his footwork and accuracy allowed him to throw out 32.6 percent of basestealers this summer, the top mark among PL regulars. The only negative in his pro debut came when he broke his left ankle while trying to bust up a double play on Aug. 11, which knocked him out for the season.
Robbie Goldberg Thornhill, Ont. Rosario was electric last year, showing a 92-97 mph fastball, a plus changeup and an occasionally above-average slurve before his elbow gave out. He had his elbow reconstructed last October, and it typically takes 12-18 months for full recovery. Ten months after the operation, the 22-year-old Rosario hasn't had any setbacks and is ahead of schedule. He'll take the mound again in instructional league and should be ready to pitch for a team on Opening Day next year. Rosario can be very, very good. Pitchers are coming back from Tommy John surgery as good as ever, if not better. I'd give Dustin McGowan an edge because he hasn't had health problems, but there isn't another pitcher in the Jays system whose ceiling is as high as Rosario's. I'd suspect he'll start 2004 in high Class A, and he could reach Toronto at some point in 2006. In other Tommy John news in the Blue Jays system, lefthander Chris Leonard should get back on the mound in instructional league as well. The 2001 Cape Cod League pitcher of the year, he probably would have been a first-round pick a year ago had he not had his elbow rebuilt just before the draft. Toronto wisely gambled on him with an eight-round selection.
Chuck Pattison Kansas City, Mo. Murphy was a 2002 fifth-round pick out of Orange Coast (Calif.) JC, where he benefited from the exposure of playing on the same team as Cubs supplemental first-rounder Matt Clanton. I'm currently working on our MWL Top 20, and the managers love the way Murphy plays the game. He has drawn repeated Craig Biggio comparisons, though he's not as fast as Biggio was in his prime. Murphy's best tool is his bat, as he makes consistent hard contact and gets on base. He's an average runner with good instincts on the bases. Though he spent 41 games at shortstop, he profiles much better at second base. He's a solid average defender with a solid average arm. I'm not sure if Chuck is being cynical about Royals prospects or BA's recognition of them, but I don't regret leaving Gotay off last year's list. He doesn't have a plus tool and isn't a good defender. Gotay was nine months younger than Murphy was when they played in the MWL, but Murphy's tools are as good or better than Gotay's across the board. He has a good chance of making the Top 20. |
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