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 If you have a question, send it to askba@baseballamerica.com. Please include your full name and hometown if you'd like your letter to be considered for use in an upcoming column. Also, please understand that we can't respond to every question. By Jim Callis Oct. 31, 2003 Sorry about the two weeks between Ask BAs, but I was recovering from Draft Report Cards and laryngitis. (It's a challenge to do interviews when you can't speak.) Now I'm healthy and have cleared some time from my Prospect Handbook schedule to answer your questions. Let's get to them.
Anthony Peruchietti Dearborn Heights, Mich. DeJesus, and it's not even close. He should be playing regularly even if the Royals hang onto Beltran, because Raul Ibanez, Michael Tucker and Rondell White are all free agents. DeJesus, who hit .308/.414/.472 between Double-A and Triple-A at age 23 this year, would be a nice fit atop the Kansas City order. He has more on-base ability than anyone in the Royals lineup except for Beltran and Mike Sweeney. DeJesus doesn't have outstanding tools, but he makes the most of what he has and owns sharp instincts. He runs well and gets good jumps on the bases and in center field. The biggest question about DeJesus is his ability to stay healthy. He hurt his elbow in his final college game at Rutgers in 2000, signed as a fourth-round pick and couldn't make his pro debut until 2002. He missed roughly half the 2003 season with arm and shoulder injuries. I'm not a huge fan of either Gomez or Gettis. Gomez has better physical skills than DeJesus but little knowledge of how to use them. He batted .270/.308/.408 in Triple-A at age 22 and has had only one productive year in his four in full-season ball. Gettis has an interesting background (University of Minnesota quarterback recruit, signed his baseball contract in a bowling alley) and he's athletic, but it took him three years to get out of low Class A and two more to escape high Class A. He did hit .302/.377/.473 in Double-A at age 23, but I'd want to see him do it again in Triple-A this year before I'd hand him a big league job.
Jeff Roberts Sacramento The Dodgers decided to ease up and play it safe with those three valuable young arms. Hanrahan worked 158 innings at age 21 this year (three more than his previous career high), Jackson 170 at 20 (65 more) and Miller 142 at 18 (104 more, though remember this was his first full season). Hanrahan faded in Triple-A in August, Jackson got extra innings in the major leagues in September and Miller has a minor sore shoulder at the end of the year. Taking all of that into account, the Dodgers decided that rest was more valuable than experience. I agree.
Mitchell Cohen East Brunswick, N.J. The Yankees' top prospect is catcher Dioner Navarro—unless George Steinbrenner trades him before you read this—who had a fine season in the shadow of Joe Mauer. Navarro is a fine all-around backstop, but my guess is he'll rank in the bottom third when we come out with our Top 100 Prospects list next spring. The Yankees system has slipped mightily in recent years. We called it the best in the game entering the 2000 season, but it dipped to 17th coming into this year. Even that ranking was propped up by the signings of Jose Contreras and Hideki Matsui, who fit our definition of prospects but were truthfully big league-ready players who weren't developed by the Yankees. We spend hours working on our organization rankings, and we haven't begun that process yet, so it's too early to say New York has the worst collection of minor league talent. But I do think they'll drop another 10 or so spots when we evaluate all the teams. As the Yankees' big league payroll has soared well past $150 million, they've gone conservative in the draft and used several prospects in trades. Outside of Navarro, the Yankees don't have any standout talent in the upper levels. And the most impressive numbers put up by many of their high-ceiling prospects are their young ages, rather than their on-field production. But as long as they spend their nearly unlimited resources fairly wisely on the big league club, they should be able to avoid a collapse like the 1965 Yankees experienced. Oct. 17, 2003 My World Series forecast of Red Sox over Cubs looked good until both got five outs away. But can we please end the talk about curses? When it came down to it, neither team executed nor was managed particularly brilliantly. The Marlins are underappreciated, but after Josh Beckett I don't know if they have the starters to beat the Yankees. I'll pick New York to win the World Series in seven games.
David Ambler Kingston, N.J. Good news for Mets fans. They own the No. 3 pick in the 2004 draft, and because it falls in the top half of the first round, it's protected from free-agent compensation. No matter whom New York might sign as a free agent, it won't give up that choice. And as the only large-revenue team among the first seven clubs selecting, the Mets likely will be the preferred destination for top talent. Here's how the first round looks now, before any adjustments are made for free-agent compensation. It's the National League's turn to pick first, so the Padres will kick things off next June. After that, the leagues alternate in reverse order of 2003 finish. If two teams had the same record this season, the 2002 records are used as a tiebreaker (with the lower-finishing team picking first): 1. Padres 11. Pirates 21. Phillies 2. Tigers 12. Angels 22. Mariners 3. Mets 13. Expos 23. Astros 4. Devil Rays 14. Royals 24. Red Sox 5. Brewers 15. Diamondbacks 25. Cubs 6. Indians 16. Blue Jays 26. Athletics 7. Reds 17. Dodgers 27. Marlins 8. Orioles 18. White Sox 28. Yankees 9. Rockies 19. Cardinals 29. Giants 10. Rangers 20. Twins 30. Braves
James Kinlaw Chesapeake, Va. For the time being, the answer is yes. When the owners and players narrowly averted a strike by reaching a new Basic Agreement on 2002, compensation appeared to be dead. The union wanted to eliminate it to create a more open market for free agents. The owners agreed, and in return were given more leverage to use against future first-round picks. Rather than getting a supplemental pick in the next draft when it failed to sign a first-rounder, a team would get to choose immediately after the corresponding pick in that next draft. For example, if a club failed to land the No. 3 pick, it would have chosen fourth overall the following year. But when it came time to put the changes in writing, the owners and players couldn't agree on what they had agreed upon, so the status quo was preserved. A joint committee of officials from both sides was formed to study possible draft changes, which also include extending the draft to cover the entire globe rather than just the United States, Puerto Rico and Canada; shortening the draft to between 20 and 38 rounds from the current 50; and allowing teams to trade draft picks. Nothing has been resolved to this point.
Bill Springer Long Island, N.Y. Once again, we'll refer our SL Top 20 questions to national writer John Manuel, who covered that league for us: More the depth of the Southern League, but he came close to making it. The question with Diaz, as I'm sure Bill knows, is his glove. If Diaz keeps his weight in check, the best-case scenario for him is becoming a Carlos Baerga type of player, a second baseman with offensive upside. Diaz has some power and a knack for making consistent contact. But Baerga's body went bad in a hurry, and scouts and managers have the same fears for Diaz, who doesn't have the power to move to first base. Oct. 8, 2003 I only went 2-for-4 with my Division Series predictions, but my original World Series forecast (Red Sox over Cubs) is still possible, so I'm sticking with it. Before we get to another installment of league Top 20 Prospects questions, can someone explain to me why the Cubs and Marlins didn't play a day game at Wrigley Field today rather than having both Championship Series games at the same time?
Jordan Bodendein Madison, Wis. To qualify for our Top 20 lists, a player needs one plate appearance or one-third of an inning pitched per scheduled team game. Relievers can make it with 20 appearances in full-season leagues or 10 in short-season leagues. With 115 innings, Martinez was eligible. National writer John Manuel compiled our SL Top 20, so we'll let him explain why Martinez couldn't make the cut: Martinez got support, but he didn't make the list for the same reason a lot of other players fell short: There were 20 players who had higher ceilings and were better prospects. Martinez is what he is, a fastball/changeup lefty with a fringy breaking ball. It was his second trip through the SL, and while he pitched well, he had a pretty high walk rate. He has a chance to be a fourth or fifth starter, but not much more unless he suddenly learns to spin a breaking ball.
Bill Mattison Birmingham The White Sox' first-round pick in 2001, Ring went to the Mets and from the SL to the EL as the principal prospect in the July 1 trade for Roberto Alomar. Ring had just 18 appearances and 22 innings in the EL, so he wasn't eligible there. We'll return to John Manuel for the SL explanation, and note that when we ranked the overall talent on each list, the SL was one of just two leagues to get five stars: Ring did get mentioned but generally was considered a step below another lefty reliever in the league, Mobile's Rusty Tucker. Tucker might have made the Top 20 if not for his Tommy John surgery in August and the league's depth. Ring's aggressiveness and mound demeanor won raves from the managers, but his stuff is just good (89-93 mph fastball, solid slider) rather than truly above-average like Tucker's (mid-90s fastball, breaking ball that ranges from below-average to very good, depending on his command). Also, Ring's weight has been a problem dating back to his days at San Diego State. He's on Team USA's preliminary roster for the Olympic qualifying team and pitched for the national team in 2001 as a collegian.
Chris Bleak Salt Lake City, Utah Aardsma wasn't eligible for the Cal League list because he had just 18 appearances and 18 innings. Otherwise he would have had a chance to make it because he put up nice numbers in the stat books (28 strikeouts versus 21 baserunners) and on the radar gun (93-97 mph). His slider was just OK and not the quality pitch it was when he dominated the Cape Cod League in the summer of 2002. Working in relief, he didn't show a changeup.
Josh Drennen Los Angeles Correspondent Michael Levesque, who put together our NY-P Top 20, reports that Baldiris got no support after being sent down to bolster Brooklyn's playoff chances. National writer Josh Boyd, who authored the SAL Top 20, said there were some managers on his beat who liked Baldiris. They praised his instincts and focus, and liked his offensive approach. He uses the middle of the field and occasionally turns on pitches and shows pop. Defensively, he moves well to both sides and shows an average arm at third base. Ultimately, he just wasn't good enough to crack our other five-star Top 20. He has some promise but showing more power than six homers and 36 extra-base hits in 133 games will be key. Incidentally, if you check our Sally League wrapup, you'll see that Baldiris made the official SAL postseason all-star team. |
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