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 If you have a question, send it to askba@baseballamerica.com. Please include your full name and hometown if you'd like your letter to be considered for use in an upcoming column. Also, please understand that we can't respond to every question. By Jim Callis March 26, 2003 We're just four days away from Opening Day, so it's time for my fearless 2003 predictions. AL East: Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles, Devil Rays.
AL Central: White Sox, Twins, Indians, Royals, Tigers.
AL West: Athletics, Mariners, Angels, Rangers.
NL East: Phillies, Braves, Marlins, Mets, Expos.
NL Central: Astros, Cardinals, Cubs, Reds, Pirates, Brewers.
NL West: Diamondbacks, Giants, Dodgers, Padres, Rockies.
Ben Delbanco New York Am I out of my mind, or did the Yankees just swindle Mark Phillips from the Padres? That was a horrible trade for San Diego. Phillips may be a No. 1 starter some day. Yankees GM Brian Cashman deserves a raise! Mike Marinaro Tampa Now that the Padres have (unfortunately) traded Mark Phillips to the Evil Empire, where does he slot on the Yankees Top 30? Is he No. 3 behind the two foreign imports? Also, I've heard rumors from people around spring training that Padres GM Kevin Towers is ecstatic about the deal, saying that Phillips had fallen well back on their pitching depth chart. It was also reported that Towers claims he intentionally overhyped Phillips and the Yankees bought into it. What do you make of this, having ranked Phillips the No. 1 Padres pitching prospect? How common is this type of thing with organizations? Eitan Altman San Francisco I talked to Josh Boyd, who did our Yankees list, and he'd put Phillips at No. 5 behind Jose Contreras and Hideki Matsui, neither of whom will spend a day in the minors, and outfielders Bronson Sardinha and Juan Rivera. Those who follow these matters closely will note that Josh has flipped the order on Sardinha and Rivera from the 2003 Prospect Handbook. Josh also points out that the Top 5 next year should have a drastically different look, as Contreras and Matsui won't qualify; lefty Brandon Claussen should be back from Tommy John surgery; and righthander Chien-Ming Wang, infielder Robinson Cano, outfielder Rudy Guillen and shortstop Ferdin Tejada will have made great strides. Like many trades these days, this one was just as much about money as talent. From the Padres' perspective, exchanging Bubba Trammell for Rondell White clears $4.75 million from next year's budget, money they hope to use to make a pitch for potential free agents such as Vladimir Guerrero, Japan's Kazuo Matsui and Miguel Tejada. To get that payroll flexibility, they were willing to part with Phillips. From the Yankees' side, they have a bottomless pit of money and took on $2.5 million in salary over the next two years in order to add a guy who will open the season as their best pitching prospect in their system. I find it very hard to believe that Towers is going around bragging about overhyping Phillips and taking the Yankees. Any GM who intentionally misleads his colleagues would find it very hard to make trades in the future, especially if he popped off about it. Secondly, the Yankees would have their own reports on Phillips. It's not like they've never seen him pitch and relied on Towers to find out how good he was. I ranked Phillips No. 3 on our San Diego Top 30. Let me emphasize that it's Baseball America's Top 30, not a list that the Padres give to us. I talked to several San Diego sources while working on the project, but I also spoke with several people in other organizations. The Padres didn't overhype Phillips to me. And if a team tries to do that on a guy, it becomes apparent when we crosscheck our information. I put Phillips at No. 3 because he has a low-90s fastball that reaches 97 mph, plus a sharp curveball and a clean arm action. He held his own at age 20 in a hitter's park in high Class A last year. I think what happened is that the Padres have been frustrated that Phillips hasn't developed more quickly, and that's why they were willing to part with him. His control has been inconsistent, but he did post a 37-9 strikeout-walk ratio in his final 32 innings last year. If he really has turned the corner, San Diego will regret the trade. He'll probably go to Double-A to start this season.
Brian Borsch Portland, Ore. Before I answer, I have to trot out my disclaimer that comparing young players to major league superstars is a delicate business. Rodriguez very well could end his career as the greatest shortstop in baseball history, displacing Honus Wagner—who right now has a good case for being the second-best player ever, behind Babe Ruth. In one sense, it's fair to compare them because of their draft status. Both were selected as high school shortstops, Rodriguez No. 1 in 1993 and Upton No. 2 last year. At the same stages of their careers, they were both pure hitters and standout defenders. Upton is quicker than Rodriguez, though Rodriguez had and still has good speed. The biggest difference, and it's a huge one, is the pop in their bats. Both were 6-foot-3 when they signed, but Rodriguez weighed 20 pounds more (190 vs. 170) and had much more power. At the time, the Mariners were trying to be conservative when they projected Rodriguez becoming at least a 25-homer hitter. Obviously, he has more than doubled that expectation. By contrast, Upton's biggest need is to get stronger and it would be ridiculous to predict that he'll develop into close to the slugger that Rodriguez has become. That's no knock on Upton. It's just telling it like it is. The comparison that scouts like to use for Upton is Derek Jeter. Upton is more of a sleek athlete like Jeter than an offensive force like Rodriguez. Just remember that Upton is 18 and he'll need some time to even approach Jeter's status. Jeter progressed gradually through the minors and was 22 when he was the American League rookie of the year in 1996.
Joe Ptak Brecksville, Ohio Joe runs the Cleveland Indians Report, thus his interest in Tadano. Tadano signed for less than $100,000, while Arakawa got a bonus in the low six figures. It's too early to say who's the better prospect, as neither has overpowering stuff nor has proven himself in the U.S. minors. For now, they register faintly on the prospect radar. As usual, Friend of Ask BA Gary Garland (of BaseballGuru.com fame) had Japanese scouting reports for us. Tadano, 22, starred at Rikkyo University but was bypassed in the Japanese draft because he had past elbow and shoulder injuries. Just 5-foot-11 and 165 pounds, he has a 90-92 mph fastball. He also throws a slider, curveball, changeup and splitter. He's more polished and deceptive than overpowering. Tadano resembles Hideo Nomo when he brings his hands way over his head at the beginning of his delivery, though he doesn't use Nomo's exaggerated body turn. He'll start the season in the high Class A Kinston bullpen. Arakawa, 24, had starred at Takaoka University before signing with Toyota's team in a Japanese industrial league in 2000. Injuries limited him before he was released last October, and he came to the United States in January to try out for major league clubs. He was offered a contract by the independent Northern League's Elmira Pioneers, who are co-owned by Nomo, Hideki Irabu and Mac Suzuki, before he signed with Colorado. Reports out of Japan pegged Arakawa's fastball at 85-86 mph, but he sat at 91 mph in a morning workout for the Rockies. He also throws a curveball and a splitter. Arakawa will spend some time in extended spring training before being assigned to high Class A Visalia or Double-A Tulsa. March 19, 2003 Lots of intriguing box-score numbers from yesterday's Rangers-Giants game, won 16-12 by Texas. Not that spring-training statistics are terribly significant, but it's still interesting to see: Mench lf 5 1 2 4 HR (4) Blalock 2b 3 2 2 2 HR (1) Teixeira 3b-1b 5 1 1 1 HR (5) Ainsworth 2 4 4 4 3 0 Foppert 3 7 5 5 1 1 L (1-1) Thomson 4.1 10 5 5 2 1 That's three pretty fair hitters developed very recently by the Rangers, and they need to find a way to get Kevin Mench, Hank Blalock and Mark Teixeira into their starting lineup on a regular basis. Texas isn't going to win the American League West this year, so what does it matter if those guys have a few growing pains? No one I talked to who saw Blalock in the Pacific Coast League last year thought he could really play second base, so I would make him the third baseman, let Teixeira share first base and DH with Rafael Palmeiro and keep Mench in left field. Travis Hafner really had no place to play, at least not until Palmeiro retires, though I still think the Rangers gave him away much too cheaply. There aren't going to be too many days when both Kurt Ainsworth and Jesse Foppert get shelled like this. I put more faith in a pitcher's track record than in his spring-training performance—barring injury or a sudden loss of stuff or control—so these lines don't bother me terribly. Ainsworth has nothing left to prove in Triple-A, so I'd put him in the Giants rotation and give Foppert a month to tear up the PCL, after which I'd find room for him as well. I could see those two combining for 20-25 victories in the majors this year if they get the opportunity to pitch. On a more veteran front, I bet John Thomson is Texas' best starter this season. When he finally escaped from Coors Field, he didn't pitch very well for the Mets, but his talent has been hidden by the high altitude in Colorado. His free-agent signing should work out a lot better (and a lot cheaper) for the Rangers than Chan Ho Park's has. Three readers emailed me to tell me I laid the rhetoric on a little thick in the last Ask BA, when I questioned whether the First Amendment didn't apply to David Wells because he was with the Yankees. Of course, as we all know, the First Amendment protects the free-speech rights of all Americans. But as the readers pointed out, the Yankees, as a private institution, are allowed to punish employees for conduct detrimental to their organization. Point taken, though I still think that if the Yankees are going to fine Wells every time he does something stupid, he's going to wind up owing them money by the end of the season.
Peter Stevens Wilmington, Del. You'll probably get to see Kansas City's biggest and brightest star of the future to open the season, though righthander Zach Greinke is so advanced that he may not remain in Wilmington past midseason. The No. 6 overall pick in the 2002 draft figures to be joined by righthander Colt Griffin, the hard-throwing but extremely raw 2001 first-round pick, and a double-play combination of Ruben Gotay and Andres Blanco. Here's my all-star team of players who have a good chance to open 2003 in the Carolina League. It's an educated guess, as minor league assignments have yet to be finalized. C—Hector Gimenez, Salem (Astros)
The most loaded position is third base. In addition to Marte, other hot-corner prospects include Lynchburg's Jose Bautista, Frederick's Tripper Johnson and Potomac's Mark Schramek. By my count, there could be 14 former first-round picks on Opening Day rosters. In addition to those already mentioned above (Greinke, Griffin, Guthrie, Honel, Johnson, McBride, Schramek, Thorman, VanBenschoten), there's also lefthanders Dan Meyer (Myrtle Beach), Royce Ring (Winston-Salem) and Richard Stahl (Frederick) plus righties Bobby Bradley (Lynchburg), J.D. Martin (Kinston). And I suspect that righthander Bryan Bullington, the No. 1 overall pick in 2002, will be in Lynchburg at some point despite the Pirates' history of moving pitching prospects patiently.
Matt Kerr Biglerville, Pa. While Bouknight continues to enjoy success, his age and stuff makes it hard to get excited about him as a prospect. He had a fine 2002 season, but at 23 he was a bit old for high Class A. More important, he rarely topped 85 mph and still hasn't shown a true quality pitch. His best offering is a slow curveball that may or may not fool major leaguers, and he has very good command. He already has physically matured, so he's not going to add more velocity and pretty much is as good as he's going to get. Will what he has be good enough to make it to the majors? Perhaps. But Bouknight will have to keep proving himself every step of the way. Double-A should be a good test for him in 2003, and if he continues to fare well he'll have to be taken seriously. He was wildly successful at South Carolina, winning the 2000 Golden Spikes Award (college baseball's Heisman Trophy) as a junior—but that still didn't get him drafted higher than the 21st round that June by Oakland. He returned for his senior season and signed with the Rockies as a 13th-rounder.
Erik Lewis Monmouth, Maine That's not a bad idea at all. The time to do that might be for our midseason update, at which point the draft would help us put the college and high school players in perspective. It also could include underclassmen not eligible for the draft, such as Florida State shortstop Stephen Drew, and possibly even international players. We'll take this under advisement. March 12, 2003 Isn't this America? Doesn't David Wells have the complete right to act like an ass if he wishes? Granted, not even Wells believes the stories he wrote in his autobiography. But I still don't see the justification for his $100,000 fine. It's not like he had to accept that punishment or face a trade, because he has a complete no-trade clause. And I doubt the fine will repair his relationship with Roger Clemens. I heard a sound bite from Yankees GM Brian Cashman on the radio where Cashman said something to the effect that this would teach players they had to be careful about how they behaved as Yankees. What complete garbage. Am I supposed to believe that the Yankees didn't realize Wells was a buffoon when they re-signed him? Or that the First Amendment doesn't apply to those in pinstripes?
Rob Crowner Amherst, Mass. Rob is referring to an online feature we posted yesterday, which contained scouting reports for 30 players that were compiled for the 2003 Prospect Handbook but were left on the cutting-room floor. While there are some intriguing players on the list, such as Indians righthander Jake Dittler and Blue Jays outfielder Jason Dubois, remember that none of these guys made their team's Top 30 because we didn't think they were good enough. Dittler, Dubois and some others would have made Top 30s in other organizations, but there's not a guy on the list who would have ranked in the Top 10. So though The 31st Team makes for some interesting reading, as an organization it would rank 31st.
Dave Gregory Atlanta The short answer is that no one "beat out" anyone to make The 31st Team. As we stated at the beginning of the feature, these aren't the next 30-best prospects in the game. These are just reports that we had gathered and ultimately didn't use. In most cases, a winter transaction pushed these players off a list. In others, our writers either sent an extra report in case it would be needed, or we made some late adjustments to a Top 30. Unfortunately for Clanton (Cubs), Davies (Braves), Hessman (Braves) and Miller (Twins), they all play in farm systems that we ranked among the best four in baseball. That's why they aren't in the Prospect Handbook, though they would have made the vast majority of Top 30s. We never compiled formal reports on them, so that's why they're not on The 31st Team.
Tom Golden Philadelphia Most of Pennsylvania's 2003 talent is concentrated in the high schools. After Lubanski, a Kennedy-Kenrick High outfielder, the next five draft picks also could be high schoolers: Shinskie; West Chester East righthander/infielder Billy Muldowney; Kline; Downington righty Billy Konecny; and righty Jon Smolenski, a teammate of Lubanski's. Kline has very nice defensive tools and has posted 1.85-second pop times (from his mitt to the infielder's glove at second base) at showcases. He's quite small, however, at 5-foot-10 and 160 pounds, so his offensive potential is questionable and he'd probably be best served by going to college for three years. (He's committed to North Carolina.) Right now he projects as a sixth- to 10th-rounder, though catchers often get overdrafted because the demand outstrips the supply. Shinksie is very athletic, having accepted a football scholarship to play quarterback at Delaware. He also punted for his high school football team. As a pitcher, he has a low-90s fastball and a very projectable frame (6-foot-4, 190 pounds) going for him. Depending on his performance this spring and his signability, he could go as high as the third round. Russell is Pennsylvania's top college prospect, but he's also an enigma. He's 6-foot-7, 240 pounds and live-armed, but he wasn't drafted as a junior a year ago despite going 1-3, 2.33 with 15 saves (third in NCAA Division I) and 35 strikeouts in 27 innings. He dominated during the summer in the New England Collegiate League, posting a 0.44 ERA, yet no big league club signed him as a nondrafted free agent. Based on this performance this spring, it's very hard to project how high Russell might go in June, or even if he has a chance to succeed as a pro. In four games for Villanova, he has this line: 1 2/3 IP, 1 H, 11 R, 10 ER, 7 BB, 2 SO, 6 HBP, 54.00 ERA. If he didn't get drafted when he was going well, this isn't going to help.
Marc Hulet Kitchener, Ont. I definitely would give Ankiel a try as a hitter, because if he fails, what has been lost? But I also think the Cardinals are handling a very delicate situation as best as they can right now. He has huge upside as a pitcher if he can get straightened out, and however unlikely that might be, it's worth pursuing until it becomes entirely hopeless. Also, if Ankiel wants to continue trying to come back as a pitcher, St. Louis should allow him to do so. If he and the club give up on that possibility, then it would be time to see if he can make it as an outfielder. Ankiel was an all-star DH in the Rookie-level Appalachian League in 2001, hitting .286-10-35 in 105 at-bats. As a pro, including the majors, he has batted .261-13-49 with a .318 on-base percentage and a .491 slugging percentage in 222 at-bats. It's reasonable that he could do better if he focused on hitting, and he's still just 23. My guess is that if and when it's decided he should become a full-time outfielder, he'll go to Class A. But that might be a couple of years away. March 5, 2003 An update on Kevin Youngblood's question from last time (see the February archives here) about Francisco Rodriguez' eligibility for postseason play: I was wrong. I tried unsuccessfully to get in touch with Major League Baseball last week, trying to confirm what turned out to be incorrect information. According to Brian Small, MLB's manager of waivers and major league records, any player in the organization (as opposed to on the 40-man roster) by the Aug. 31 deadline can be used as a fill-in for an injured player. The only other requirement is that a hurt pitcher must be replaced by another pitcher, while a hurt hitter must be replaced by another hitter. Teams take advantage of this giant loophole all the time. A better idea would be to let teams choose only from the pool of players on their 25-man roster and their disabled list as of Aug. 31, rather than letting them skirt the intent of the rule.
Jason Phillips New Canaan, Conn. That's a very good question. Ankiel was our No. 1 prospect in 2000, but that was after his second full season in pro ball. After he signed in 1998, Ankiel ranked 18th on the first BA Top 100 Prospects list for which he was eligible. Kazmir, by contrast, was No. 11 this year, the first time he was considered. There were other premier southpaws who signed between Ankiel and Kazmir, such as Ryan Anderson and C.C. Sabathia, but they didn't make instant splashes like that. Using the 20-80 scouting scale, with 50 representing major league average, here's a comparison of the future potential of Ankiel in 2000 to Kazmir now:
Ankiel Kazmir
Age 20 19
Team Cards Mets
Height 6-2 6-0
Weight 200 170
Throws Left Left
Fastball Velocity 60 70
Fastball Movement 70 70
Breaking Ball 75 70
Changeup 60 55
Command 65 60
Delivery 65 70
Obviously, Ankiel's command has fallen apart and is nowhere near a 65 now. But at stages in their careers where Kazmir is 1½ years younger and has two full seasons less of pro experience, his potential grades as well as Ankiel's did. Kazmir has more velocity and a slightly better delivery, while Ankiel edged Kazmir with his breaking ball (Ankiel throws a curve, Kazmir a slider), his changeup and his command. It's sad to see what has happened to Ankiel, and I doubt he'll ever do much in the majors again. Kazmir probably will reach the majors as quickly as Ankiel did, which means to look for him in Shea Stadium by the end of 2004.
Robert Poole Jr. Appleton, Wis. We agree to disagree on Choo. I don't think he'll necessarily become a slugger, but I can see him hitting for average and drawing walks while hitting 15-20 homers per year and being a solid baserunner and defender. He could become a Mark Kotsay type of player and he was clearly the best prospect on the Rattlers a year ago. The MWL is usually loaded with prospects, and 2003 will be no exception. I count seven 2002 first-round picks who should be on Opening Day rosters: righthander Chris Gruler (Dayton/Reds), first baseman Prince Fielder (Beloit/Brewers), shortstop Scott Moore (West Michigan/Tigers), outfielder Denard Span (Quad City/Twins), shortstop Sergio Santos (South Bend/Diamondbacks) and righthanders Chadd Blasko and Matt Clanton (both Lansing/Cubs). Three of the top draft-and-follow signees from last year also should be present: lefthander Manny Parra (Beloit) and righties Blake Hawksworth (Peoria/Cardinals) and Humberto Sanchez (West Michigan). In addition to all those guys, shortstop Andres Blanco (Burlington/Royals), lefty Andy Sisco (Lansing), righty Scott Tyler (Quad City) and outfielder Brent Clevlen (West Michigan) all made our Top 10 Prospects lists for their clubs. There's also a number of players who didn't quite make Top 10s but have a lot of upside, such as righthanders Rafael Rodriguez (Cedar Rapids/Angels), Javier Martinez (Fort Wayne/Padres), Jae-Kuk Ryu (Lansing); lefthander Justin Jones (Lansing); and first baseman Dusty Gomon (Quad City). Wisconsin's best prospect likely will be second baseman Ismael Castro, the short-season Northwest League's MVP in 2002. I don't think the Cubs will send center fielder Felix Pie, a rising star, to the MWL in April because he'll be just 18, but he could make it there by the end of the season.
Elliot Legow Youngstown, Ohio Cleveland has the deepest Top 30 list of any team, which made competition for those spots intense. None of the players the Indians lost in the major league Rule 5 draft—shortstop Hector Luna (to the Devil Rays), lefthander Derek Thompson (to the Cubs, who traded him to the Dodgers), infielder Marshall McDougall (to the Rangers) and lefty Matt White (to the Red Sox)—would have made their Top 30 list, though all would have been in 31-40 group had we ranked that many. Interestingly, all four of them did make the Top 30s with their new clubs. McDougall was No. 12 with Texas, Thompson No. 15 with Los Angeles, White No. 20 with Boston and Luna No. 27 with Tampa Bay. There's a very good chance that Cleveland won't get any of these guys back. Thompson had major elbow surgery last week and will be out for the entire year, so the Dodgers can keep him on the disabled list all year and retain him by keeping him on their 25-man roster for 90 consecutive days after he's reinstated in 2004. Rangers assistant GM Grady Fuson drafted McDougall as Oakland's scouting director, so it's easy to see Texas keeping McDougall as a utility guy with some sock. White has a good chance to make the Red Sox as a bullpen lefty, and the Devil Rays are so thin that they should have no problem carrying Luna. |
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