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 If you have a question, send it to askba@baseballamerica.com. Please include your full name and hometown if you'd like your letter to be considered for use in an upcoming column. We regret that we can't respond to every question. By Jim Callis September 28, 2001 As expected, we have plenty of league Top 20 Prospects-related questions. Today I'll deal with some from the Midwest and South Atlantic leagues, and I'll try to provide some answers from other circuits next week. All the Class A, short-season and Rookie leagues have been posted, with Double-A to follow on Monday and Triple-A to come on Tuesday.
Wilbur Miller Silver Spring, Md. I was a bit disappointed that only Sean Burnett among Pirates prospects at Hickory made the South Atlantic League Top 20. I am thinking specifically of Chris Young, Jason Sharber and Nate McLouth. I thought Sharber and McLouth were especially impressive considering that they're both only 19. Do you know if these guys got any mention or if they're thought of highly despite being excluded from the top group? Joel R. Charny Washington, D.C. Wow, Pirates fans really think alike. I'm sure both Wilbur and Joel are wondering why Craig Wilson isn't playing every day at first base in Pittsburgh, too. All three of these guys are 2000 draft picks who signed 2001 contracts. Young (third round), Sharber (fifth) and McLouth (25th) all got bonuses well above the averages for their rounds, and all had nice debuts this year. Young went 5-3, 4.12 with 72 strikeouts in 74 innings; Sharber went 2-2, 1.99 with 57 whiffs in 45 innings; and McLouth batted .285-12-54 with 21 steals in 96 games between center and right field. They're solid prospects but just didn't crack the Top 20, and Sharber didn't have enough innings to qualify. The Sally League has 16 teams, which means there are lots of players vying for spots and for managers to keep track of. Young is probably the best of the group because he's a 6-foot-11 righthander with a feel for pitching, and he could be very special if his velocity reaches the mid-90s as expected. McLouth is one of the more underrated hitters in the minors.
Dave King Flagstaff, Ariz. I know that Luis Montanez had a disappointing season with Lansing. He went from the No. 1 prospect in the Arizona League last year to missing the Top 20 for the Midwest League this year. Just how far has he fallen? How does he project? Surely it is too soon to call him a bust, but should Cubs fans be worried? Craig Bartholomaus Kansas City, Mo. I was surprised not to see Luis Montanez on the Midwest League's Top 20 Prospects list. Admittedly, he had an average year at best, but after hitting .180 to begin the season, he finished at .255, hitting .300 in the final month. He committed far fewer errors than David Espinosa and the same number as Miguel Cabrera. Furthermore, he did display the power BA projected he would, garnering 44 extra-base hits. And finally, though there were knocks on his speed, he managed to steal 20 bases in 27 attempts, far surpassing Cabrera and Espinosa. Personally, I think he'll rebound at Daytona, just like Expos shortstop Brandon Phillips did after his subpar year in low Class A. Any thoughts? Vic Sahajpal Ann Arbor, Michigan Let's deal with Montanez first, because he's obviously on the minds of Cubs fans. Similar to the SAL, the MWL has 14 teams and lots of competition for those 20 spots. Just because a guy doesn't make it doesn't mean he's not a prospect or a bust. Granted, I'm sure the Cubs hoped that the No. 3 overall pick from a year ago would be regarded as one of the best 20 guys in the MWL, especially after his strong pro debut. Montanez would have fit in the 21-30 range if we went that deep, but no higher. Managers and scouts clearly preferred Cabrera and Espinosa to Montanez. Statistically, both of those guys had better batting averages, on-base percentages, slugging percentages and strikeout-walk ratios than Montanez did. Montanez' overall approach at the plate worried several observers, though he did tone down his propensity to swing at pitches over his head or in the dirt as the season progressed. He does have some pull power but needs to learn to use the entire field. Defensively, he lacks the quickness typical of a shortstop, and while people liked his arms and hands, it's not a certainty that he'll be able to remain at the position. Playing full-season ball at age 19 is a challenge, and Montanez did show improvement late in the year. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he bounced back with a much stronger season in 2002, similar to what Phillips did this season. Dubois was making his pro debut because he broke his foot shortly after signing last year and never got on the field. His power and arm are his two best tools, and he did hit .296-24-92 (albeit with a 120-46 strikeout-walk ratio). Other Lugnuts hitters who got mentioned a little were first baseman Blair Barbier (.314-16-77, though he was old for the MWL at 23) and outfielder Ray Sadler (.341-10-50, 18 steals). Overall, the managers and scouts were more impressed with Lansing's pitchers than its hitters. Krawiec (7-11, 4.58, 170 strikeouts in 153 innings) would have been in that 21-30 group. He has plus stuff but surprisingly struggled. Others arms who drew notice were Wilton Chavez (2-6, 4.02, 60 strikeouts in 47 innings), Jon Leicester (9-10, 5.29, 109 strikeouts in 153 innings) and Roberto Miniel (6-7, 4.25, 140 strikeouts in 136 innings).
Lou Schuler Allentown, Pa. They're prospects, but MWL observers were lukewarm on all three and none came particularly close to making the Top 20. Gall was 23, and low Class A wasn't a test for him after he spent four years at Stanford. Duncan struggled in the league last year, so that worked against him. Morris can run but didn't convince anyone that his other tools would be enough to get him to the major leagues.
Paul Smith Los Alamitos, Calif. I did write that, with the qualifier "at least in full-season ball", and I still stand by it. Sapakoff said Buck just missed making the SAL Top 20, but there's no question in my mind that I'd take Buck over Hill. Buck is 16 months younger than Hill. Buck hit .275-22-73 with an .828 OPS, while Hill batted .302-8-79 with a .764 OPS. Buck threw out 37 percent of basestealers, while Hill nabbed 33 percent. Hill is a prospect, but Buck is better. And after looking at a few more names, I still stand by my original comment. September 26, 2001 Welcome to the latest, belated edition of Ask BA. The fall and winter workload at the magazine is heavier than it is during the spring and summer, and instead of writing a new installment as scheduled on Tuesday, I was editing the Top 20 Prospects reports for each minor league. They'll be in our issue that goes to print Thursday, and subscribers already can access some of them elsewhere on our website. I'm sure the Ask BA mailbag will start filling up with related questions, and we'll lead off today with one. In any case, I apologize for giving you Ask BA a day late, but also warn you that this might happen occasionally as we move from baseball season to prospect season.
Garrett Guest West Lafayette, Ind. I'll start by explaining how we rate prospects. It's a combination of a player's ceiling and the likelihood he has of reaching that ceiling. A guy can be a tremendous athlete, but if he lacks baseball skills he's not really a prospect. For pitchers, you almost can replace "ceiling" with "stuff" and "the likelihood he has of reaching that ceiling" with "command". Just looking at the numbers, Pignatiello had the fourth-best ERA and top strikeout rate in Boise's rotation, which also included No. 4 prospect Angel Guzman and No. 6 prospect Dontrelle Willis. Yes, Pignatiello had a nice season, but it wasn't much different than the rest of his teammates. And ranking prospects is about more than just reading statistics. The reason Pignatiello didn't make it is that his stuff isn't anything special at this point. He is a prospect and the Cubs like him, but he's more of a Kirk Reuter type who can throw a variety of pitches for strikes. In the lower minors, it's easier to get strikeouts with command than with power, and that changes as a pitcher moves up the ladder.
Jim Wilson Bethel Park, Pa. Lefthander Wilson Guzman is the pitcher Jim is asking about, and he ranked No. 22 in the Pirates organization when we put together our Prospect Handbook. He went 14-7, 2.97 with 135 strikeouts in 179 innings between high Class A Lynchburg and Altoona. His stuff didn't really stand out, as he lacks a true out pitch and was more deceptive than anything. It was his Guzman's full season as a starter, and it may have taken a toll on him. He hurt his shoulder early in winter ball while pitching in his native Dominican Republic, didn't make any progress by spring training and had season-ending shoulder surgery.
Once Wilson Betemit is ready for the majors, how do you see him, Rafael Furcal and Marcus Giles fitting into Atlanta as starters? Almost everyone says Betemit will move to third base, but Giles has third-base power numbers. Any chance that Giles will go to third, with Betemit at short and Furcal at second? What's the most likely scenario? Who are the top first-base prospects in the minors, based on potential alone? When all is said and done several years from now, how would you rank Nick Johnson, Carlos Pena, Casey Kotchman, Adrian Gonzalez, Justin Morneau and anyone else I might have forgotten? Thanks. Wade Holland Wallins Creek, Ky. For now, Giles is the biggest power hitter among the three Braves middle infielders. But Betemit is supposed to develop significant pop and may rival Giles before he's done, so he'll fit the third-base profile in the future. I'm not sure Giles has the arm for the hot corner, and I don't think Atlanta will move him there anyway. Furcal isn't going to third base, so that leaves Betemit. As for the first basemen, I'd throw Hee Seop Choi, Jack Cust and Xavier Nady into the mix as well. Cust played the outfield this season, but he's really a first baseman. All these guys are fairly similar in terms of hitting for average and plate discipline, so what's going to separate them is their power. I'd take Pena, who also has proved the most at the highest level (Triple-A) to this point. Morneau might be the sleeper in the group. I rated Gonzalez ahead of him in our Midwest League Top 20, but Morneau does have more pop at this point. September 21, 2001 I really enjoyed chatting with everyone today. It's always fun and I always wish I had more time to answer more questions. You guys always have interesting opinions, and hopefully I put the whole Ed Rogers issue to rest for a while. Let's answer a few more questions in today's installment of Ask BA, which unfortunately got delayed a bit because of the chat this afternoon.
Chicago—Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Juan Cruz. Houston—Roy Oswalt, Wade Miller, Tim Redding. St. Louis—Matt Morris, Bud Smith, Rick Ankiel (assuming he makes a full recovery). Geoff King Northbrook, Ill. Hey, don't forget about the most established group of young starters of them all: Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito in Oakland. I do agree, though, that the NL Central crop as a whole outstrips any other division. Though he threw strikes in the Rookie-level Appalachian League, I still have grave doubts about Ankiel. Even if he does make a full recovery, I'd probably rank the Cardinals' trio behind the other two. I like Bud Smith and it's hard to argue with his initial results in St. Louis, but his pure stuff is the worst of the nine guys you listed. I guess it would be safer to take the three Astros over their Cubs counterparts, because Oswalt and Miller have had extended success in the majors. Among the Chicago pitchers, that's only true for Wood. But I like the upside on Prior and Cruz a lot, so I'd take the three Cubs.
Michael Cross Decatur, Ill. If Prior had pitched in the AFL, it would have given the Cubs a little better idea as to where they should start him next year and what his ETA at Wrigley Field might be. But because they didn't start serious negotiations until August and offered only a 2002 contract, the Priors decided that Mark would be better off working on finalizing his business degree at the University of Southern California. He won't receive a dime from the Cubs until next year. He would have been willing to sign quicker (and possibly helped the team this season) had Chicago made an effort earlier, so I can't blame him for the decision. He's young enough, too, where it also could be argued that saving the AFL innings might be helpful for him in the long run. I think Prior will make his debut in Double-A, with high Class A also a possibility. He works extremely hard on his own, so the layoff shouldn't hurt him.
Junior Birthfield Ardmore, Pa. If Major League Baseball contracts teams, the 40-man roster players on those teams almost certainly would be allocated to the remaining clubs in both leagues via some kind of dispersal draft. The minor league players might be divided up the same way, which would be cheaper than making them free agents. Not to go off on Junior, but there's no way MLB ever will contract. I know, I know, reputable baseball columnists everywhere are saying it's a very real possibility. But it's not. It's just posturing from the owners as they prepare for the next round of Basic Agreement negotiations. Here's why. First, the Expos and Marlins, if those would be the two clubs, aren't just going to go away without being compensated for the value of their franchises. The last two expansion teams paid $130 million to join MLB in 1995, and I'm guessing that any contracted clubs would want at least $200 million each. That means each of the other 28 clubs, many of whom constantly cry poor, would have to pay at least $14 million to make the Expos and Marlins disappear. Think Carl Pohlad is going to do that? Secondly, the union isn't going to take kindly to the elimination of 80 major league roster spots. This is just a bargaining chip for the owners to claim that they'll contract if they don't get other concessions. Third, if baseball ever contracted, it never would be able to expand again in the foreseeable future. The next two expansion teams, whenever they arrive, probably will have to pay fees in the neighborhood of $250 million in present value. So on one hand, MLB teams can give up $14 million each and antagonize the union. On the other, they can one day rake in about $17 million each and not set off another labor war. Bud Selig shouldn't have a difficult time determining the wiser course of action.
Bill Hamilton Jacksonville Whenever there's an injury question, the best place to turn is BA injury guru Josh Boyd. So that's what I did. Josh reports that Rauch is doing fine after having arthroscopic shoulder surgery in May. He should be 100 percent by spring training next year. With all the medical advances made in recent years and the numerous examples of guys coming back better than ever from more major operations, I'm confident that Rauch will regain his previous form. It may take some time, but I'm still very high on him. September 18, 2001 As if there wasn't enough terrible news last week, we learned on Friday night that George Bradley had died suddenly in Tampa. A special assistant to White Sox GM Ken Williams, George was never in the spotlight much, though at one point in his career he essentially was in charge of the Yankees. I ran into George quite a bit at various events, and every time he had a smile on his face. Phil Rogers wrote a nice story about George that you can access by clicking here. Phil writes that "George was generous with his time, helping young scouts learn the ropes." George was the same way with young baseball writers as well, patiently answering questions and giving his opinions on prospect after prospect. That's the kind of cooperation that helps make Baseball America what it is. I'll miss him.
Erick Metzger Reynoldsburg, Ohio The major league season originally was going to end on Sept. 30, but now will conclude on Oct. 7 after six days worth of games were postponed in the wake of the attack on the World Trade Center and Pentagon. The Arizona Fall League still will start its season on Oct. 2, as originally planned, and doesn't figure to be affected too much. The AFL may consider shifting some game times so they don't conflict with the rescheduled World Series, but that's the only planned change. There are about a dozen or so active major leaguers on AFL rosters, such as Yankees first baseman Nick Johnson and Devil Rays righthander Jason Standridge. Their teams simply will do without them for a week or so. Each of the AFL's six clubs has a 30-man roster, plus two or three guys on a taxi squad. Those extra players originally were set to be used on Wednesday and Saturdays only, but now they'll see more action in the early season.
Jason Phillips Colorado Springs Great question. Let's start by take a look at each guy's season:
It's clear to me that Rauch had the third-best season among the pitchers. Ankiel succeeded while generally pitching at a higher level than Beckett despite being two years younger, but I have to give Beckett the nod among the pitchers. His numbers are just ridiculous. 15-1, 1.48. Averages of 5.1 hits and 12.8 strikeouts per nine innings. A 5.6 strikeout-walk ratio. Wow. I still like Dunn's season a little bit more, though, because he's going to wind up with close to 50 homers, 130 RBI and 100 walks, and he did it while being a level ahead of Beckett all season. He set a rookie record with 12 home runs in one month—his first full month in the majors. But it's an apples-and-oranges argument, really. John Manuel pointed out yesterday that in today's era, Beckett's season is more of anomaly than Dunn's, the best reason I've heard for giving Beckett the Minor League Player of the Year award. In most years, obviously, Beckett and Dunn would have made it an easy choice.
Now on to a couple of inquiries about guys still in the minors: Hank Blalock, Justin Morneau, Donnie Bridges and Chin-Feng Chen. What are your thoughts on Blalock? Is he going to get a shot at the Rangers' third-base job next year, or will he be in Triple-A? What effect will Mark Teixeira have on him? Will Blalock be moving to second base or the outfield? Morneau seems to be a really great prospect, but being with the Twins is kind of scary. Do you think they even have the capabilities to develop a top-notch guy? Is he exclusively a first baseman now? What are your thoughts on him? What injury did Bridges have? Is he still considered a top prospect? What are your feelings on Chen? He seems to be a good prospect, but spending a second year at Double-A this year doesn't seem like a good thing (even though he did really well). What's his stock as a prospect? Still good or slightly down or what? Jon Kjarsgaard Madison, Wis. I don't usually consider lengthy, five-part questions, but Jon's queries interested me so I'll make an exception. Soriano has gotten more patient over the course of the season and he's just 23, so he should continue to improve. That said, it's hard to say that a guy who strikes out four times as often as he walks and has a hard time keeping his on-base percentage above .300 ever is going to be terribly disciplined. Sammy Sosa is a rare, rare exception. Soriano does have 30-homer power potential, and I can see him reaching that level in a couple of years. He's nothing special at second base and the Yankees have loads of middle-infield prospects, so I suspect he'll eventually settle in left field. He has the chance to become a good player but I don't envision him as a star. My guess on the Rangers is that Mike Lamb will open 2002 as their third baseman, with Blalock starting in Triple-A and Teixeira in Double-A. Blalock is as pure a hitter as anyone in the minors (I put him on par with Sean Burroughs) and yet is generally underhyped. Because Teixeira can play only third or first base and Texas has Carlos Pena at the latter position, Blalock likely will be on the move. From what I've been told, he doesn't have the tools to play second base but could make an acceptable corner outfielder. Morneau is a great prospect. I'm working on the Midwest League Top 20 Prospects list, and managers are fairly split on who's better, Morneau or Adrian Gonzalez. The Twins have had problems developing power hitters, but Michael Cuddyer bounced back nicely this year as did Matt LeCroy and Mike Restovich. Morneau played 116 games in the field this year, all at first base, so his catching days are behind him. Bridges had shoulder problems that didn't require surgery but sidelined him for two months. The Expos did him a disservice by allowing him to pitch 201 innings in 2000 at age 21, not the recommended way to handle an organization's top pitching prospect. Though he never has come close to averaging a strikeout per inning in any of his five pro seasons, Bridges did have 44 whiffs in as many innings after returning in mid-July. He won't rank 26th on our Top 100 Prospects list again next year, but he's still a solid prospect. I'd say Chen's stock was down last year, when he hit .277-6-77 in Double-A, and is now on the rebound after he hit .317-17-50 in a half-season there in 2001. Chen had offseason surgery to remove scar tissue from his right shoulder, so perhaps that explains his disappointing 2000 performance. He's easily the Dodgers' best batting prospect.
Jason Karegeannes Greenfield, Wis. I can't see Krynzel helping the Brewers in the next couple of years. A 2000 first-round pick, he needs time in the minors to refine his skills. Milwaukee jumped the gun by promoting him from the low Class A Midwest League after 35 games this year. Krynzel was hitting .305 at the time, but his on-base (.364) and slugging percentages (.348) weren't much to get excited about. He got off to a slow start in the high Class A California League, then finished strong and ended with .277/.329/.392 numbers. Krynzel is still 19. If I were running the Brewers system, he'd be heading to the Cal League for at least the first half of 2002 and I wouldn't be looking to promote him to the majors until mid-2004 unless he began to improve rapidly. He more than held his own in terms of batting average this year, but he hit an empty .284. He had 32 extra-base hits in 124 games, 150 strikeouts compared to 36 walks, and was caught stealing 22 times in 67 attempts (a break-even success rate). He has lots of potential but shouldn't be rushed. He's not the immediate solution, not that Lou Collier is either. September 14, 2001 Did Bud Selig make the right decision when he decided to postpone the resumption of play until Monday? I think he did. While holding the games wouldn't have been disrespectful and would have provided a needed distraction, most of the comments from the players indicate that they weren't in any frame of mind to play. Also, working out the logistics for security and travel would have been difficult, and having an additional weekend to iron out the details will be beneficial. I also applaud the decision not to truncate the season, which would have had a direct effect on the National League playoff races, as well as Barry Bonds' pursuit of Mark McGwire. I'm looking forward to Monday, though there's no way that baseball will begin to erase the horror of what happened on Tuesday.
Josh Orenstein Manhattan Seo is 24 so I'd bet that the Mets will give him a shot in the majors at some point in 2002. He proved he was fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, going 9-6, 2.77 with a 91-23 strikeout-walk ratio in 133 innings this year. His command is more notable than his stuff, though his command is so good that it's not difficult to envision him having success in the majors. I'd feel better about his chances had he averaged more than 4.8 strikeouts per nine innings in Triple-A. But his heart can't be questioned, especially after he pitched in the high Class A Florida State League playoffs and the Asian Games in 1998 with nearly a complete tear in his elbow. Few hitters in the minors (or majors, for that matter) can rival Stratton's pure power. He has 106 homers in 464 pro games since being the 13th overall pick in the 1996 draft. Stratton, 24, does have a huge problem making contact, however. He fanned 203 times in 2001 and has whiffed 681 times in 1,663 career at-bats. He draws a decent amount of walks, but at this point he looks more like a curiosity than a big league star. The Mets have some other pitching prospects who finished the year in Double-A and Triple-A, such as lefthander Billy Traber; righthanders Nick Maness, Pat Strange and Tyler Walker. New York doesn't have a very deep system, and the death of Brian Cole in a car accident was a huge blow. Thanks for your question, Josh, and please be safe yourself.
Ken Urben Queens, N.Y. Two obvious guys, assuming there isn't a lockout that would leave them idling, are Rangers third baseman Mark Teixeira and Cubs righthander Mark Prior. As soon as they make their pro debuts in 2002, we should see that Teixeira is one of the best all-around hitters in the minors and that Prior is one of the top pitchers. If Beckett begins next season with the Marlins as expected, Prior could be the best mound prospect in the game before he throws his first professional pitch. If I have to pick guys who have already played in the minors, I'll go out on a limb with Twins first baseman Justin Morneau and Giants righthander Boof Bonser. Another San Francisco righty, Jerome Williams, could improve drastically after a star-crossed 2001. I've ignored more obvious guys like third baseman Hank Blalock (Rangers) and Sean Burroughs (Padres), and righthanders Tim Redding (Astros) and Dennis Tankersley (Padres), because I suspect they'll spent a great deal of time in the majors.
Is Rowand just a fourth outfielder? Is he a significantly better defensive center fielder than Borchard? Is he a quality corner outfielder who will be traded in lieu of trading Carlos Lee or Magglio Ordonez? Ryan West Seattle Rowand is very much in the picture. The 1998 supplemental first-round pick hit .295-16-48 in 329 Triple-A at-bats and .308-4-20 in 107 major league at-bats (thus far) this season at age 23. He's more of a run producer than a basestealer, and he could stand to draw some more walks, but his potential is evident. Rowand projects more as a right fielder, though he's not going to wrest that position away from Ordonez. The White Sox would love for him to win their center-field job for the moment, because Jose Valentin can't cut it defensively and Chris Singleton can't hack it offensively. Borchard got a record $5.3 million to sign, so unless he flops he'll have a place in the long-term lineup. If Borchard can handle center—and the early reports are promising but not definitive—than Rowand could be the odd man out. If Borchard can't, then Rowand could hang on to the center-field job. It's also conceivable that the White Sox, who have several promising young players entering arbitration and/or free agency, could keep both and deal Lee to save on payroll.
Are pitchers who are bound to be relievers more likely to spend time in the low minors as starters to get more innings? Will he be put on the 40-man roster to shield from him from the major league Rule 5 draft? John Hach Kalamazoo, Mich. Thornton was a surprise 1998 first-rounder out of Grand Valley State (Mich.) University and didn't do much to justify that selection in his first three pro seasons. Elbow and triceps problems didn't help him, nor did his lack of command. But he finally figured out how to throw his powerful fastball-slider combination for strikes in 2001, when he went 14-7, 2.52 with 192 strikeouts in 157 innings in the Cal League. Opponents hit just .220 against him. The Mariners have plenty of starters in the majors and plenty of candidates in the minors, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Thornton reach the majors as a reliever. In general, organizations give their best prospects innings as starters in the minors regardless of their projected roles. The Mariners have a deep roster, but they'll almost certainly lose Thornton in the major league Rule 5 draft if they don't protect him. He's a 6-foot-6 lefthander with plus stuff, and it wouldn't be that hard to keep him on a major league roster all season as either a mopup man or lefty specialist. He turns 25 tomorrow, so he could move in a hurry next year even if he stays in the Seattle organization. September 11, 2001 Baseball doesn't seem terribly significant today. Perhaps this column can serve as a brief diversion from the events of this morning.
Paul Smith Los Alamitos, Calif. Gentry, 20, was a 13th-round pick in 1999 out of a California high school, and he didn't attract much notice while spending two years in short-season ball. He broke through in a big way in 2001, batting .299-24-103 despite being limited to 98 games at low Class A Michigan by a slight labrum tear in his shoulder. Buck, 21 and a 1998 seventh-rounder out of a Utah high school, had his own coming-out party in the Midwest League last year and followed up by hitting .275-22-73 in 122 games at low Class A Lexington this summer. (He didn't have the opportunity to be promoted to high Class A because the Astros don't have an affiliate at that level.) Gentry (39-45 walk-strikeout ratio) did show more plate discipline than Buck (37-84) this year, and he offers the added benefit of batting lefthanded. However, Buck has a more athletic body and is more polished behind the plate. He gunned down 37 percent of basestealers, while Gentry, who was battling those shoulder problems, threw out just 22 percent. I've been working on our Midwest League Top 20 Prospects list, and the managers loved Gentry's bat and strength. They were mixed about his catching potential, but the consensus was that he could become an average big league defender. Though I haven't done an exhaustive study, Buck might be the best all-around catching prospect in the minor leagues—at least in full-season ball—and he doesn't have a whole lot of competition for that honor. We've heard that Gentry will be the player who goes to the Rockies to complete the Astacio detail, and he fits the profile of what we've heard (a catcher who's injured and not on the 40-man roster). If that proves to be the case, that's a nice pickup for Colorado. Both Buck and Gentry are at least two years away from the majors.
Doug Kripp Hagerstown, Md. With Junior Griffey entrenched in center field for the rest of his career, and Adam Dunn laying a stake in probably left field for hopefully the rest of his career, who is your favorite to win the other corner-outfield spot for the future of the Reds? Living in Dayton, I've had the joy of watching Austin Kearns last year and Wily Mo Pena this year. I would imagine that it's a race between those two for the final spot. Is it possible that one of the above four will force Sean Casey from first? And all this without mentioning Ben Broussard! What is your take on the most likely scenario? Thanks! Matt Owens Dayton, Ohio After reading your comments about Joe Borchard as an up-and-coming slugger, I am interested in your projections for Ben Broussard. Ben led the Southern League in batting average (.320) and slugging percentage (.592), and he was second in on-base percentage (.428) and fifth in home runs (23) despite playing the first month in high Class A. Erick Metzger Reynoldsburg, Ohio I like Ben Broussard a lot, but I wonder if he might have a hard time finding a job in Cincinnati. Broussard was one of the biggest immediate success stories to come out of the 1999 draft, as the McNeese State second-rounder hit .332-24-75 in 78 games and reached Double-A. A wrist injury slowed him down in 2000 but he returned with a vengeance this summer. Overall, he has a very impressive pro resume: .298-66-216 with 197 walks in 295 games. Broussard will turn 25 later this month and he doesn't have much left to prove in the minors. But he's not much of an outfielder and played almost exclusively at first base this year. Unless Sean Casey becomes too expensive for the Reds' tastes, I don't see Broussard getting a chance to play regularly in Cincinnati. Even if Broussard doesn't factor into the mix, the Reds still have plenty of candidates to be their third outfielder for the long term. The incumbent, Dmitri Young, isn't that bad himself, but he seems likely to be traded in an offseason cost-cutting move. Beyond him are Ruben Mateo (age 23) in Triple-A, Kearns (21) and Jackson Melian (21) in Double-A and Pena (19) in low Class A. Kearns didn't have his best year, hitting .268-6-36 in 59 games and missing three months with a wrist injury, but he has power to all fields and a good eye at the plate. He's my choice. Pena's tools are considerable, and Midwest League managers say he'll be special if he stops swinging at everything, but he'll be hampered by a major league contract that means he has to be in Cincinnati to start 2003 or exposed to waivers.
Pat Nierle Portland, Maine According to BA draft guru Allan Simpson, the best bet is that Pittsburgh will take a pitcher who won't tower over the opposition. Rutgers righthander Bobby Brownlie is the top college prospect at this point, while Cypress Falls High (Houston) lefthander Scott Kazmir is the class of the high schoolers. Brownlie, who dominated in the Cape Cod League and with Team USA the last two summers, is 6-foot-1. Kazmir, who shined at the recent Area Code Games, is 6 feet. But their lack of height doesn't matter, as both have live arms, plus curveballs and fine commands. Other candidates include college righthanders Brian Bullington (Ball State) and Anthony Reyes (Southern California), high school righthander Jason Neigborgall (Riverside/Durham, N.C.) and high school shortstop B.J. Upton (Greenbrier Christian Academy/Chesapeake, Va.). Two Canadian lefthanders, Jeff Francis (University of British Columbia) and Adam Loewen (Fraser Valley Christian High/Surrey, B.C.), should be the highest picks ever from their nation and could factor early in the draft.
Rob Maddock Brookings, S.D. Age and experience both matter a great deal. In this case, I would give Borchard (.295-27-98, 67 walks, 157 strikeouts in 133 games at Birmingham) an edge over Cuddyer (.301-30-87, 75 walks, 106 strikeouts in 141 games at New Britain) because they're roughly the same age and Cuddyer has three additional years of full-season experience. Also, Cuddyer was repeating the Double-A level after batting .263-6-61 there in 2000. And Borchard may be capable of playing center field, while Cuddyer may be relegated to first base or left field. September 4, 2001 Bud Smith's no-hitter last night was fun to watch, though I have to admit I didn't think he'd make it with the way he was laboring in the last couple of innings. On his 134th pitch of the night, Smith got Phil Nevin on a comebacker and became the first rookie to throw a no-no since St. Louis' Jose Jimenez two years ago. Jimenez isn't destined for a great career, and the party line is that many of the rookies who have pulled this off weren't either. But that's not really true. The list of the 17 rookies (not counting Smith) with no-hitters since 1900 includes Hall of Famer Christy Mathewson and a slew of solid pitchers such as Jeff Tesreau (115-72, 2.72 for those of you who aren't fans of the dead-ball era), Don Wilson, Vida Blue, Burt Hooton, Steve Busby, Jim Bibby and Wilson Alvarez. Smith, who also threw two seven-inning no-hitters in Double-A last year, shouldn't be a one-game wonder. A year ago, I had a very slight preference for Smith over Jon Rauch (the eventual winner) and Roy Oswalt for our Minor League Player of the Year award, because he succeeded at a higher level than his competition. His stuff doesn't really compare to that of Rauch or Oswalt, and there was nothing wrong with our choice. I'm using the same argument this year to give Adam Dunn the edge over Josh Beckett, though we haven't made an official decision yet.
Matt Puglisi Chicago Joe Borchard has put up pretty impressive numbers in the Southern League this year. The White Sox claim he's the best power prospect they're seen in years. What are your thoughts concerning the numbers Borchard will put up in the next few years? Could he be a potential league leader one day? In addition, how is he progressing in center and will he be the starting center fielder next year? Mike Cowlin San Francisco At the time, Matt Harrington was the consensus top prospect in the 2000 draft. The White Sox weren't the only team who had Borchard No. 1 overall on their board and he had the most upside of any of the position players available. Borchard was No. 12 on our Top 100 Draft Prospects list, but the top of that list was based on how we projected the first round to go, not on how the players stacked up against one another (we changed that practice in 2001). Borchard did go 12th, mainly because he and Harrington were the only players in the top dozen picks not to agree to prearranged deals, and got a record bonus of $5.3 million. Afterward, longtime Sox scouting director Duane Shaffer said Borchard had more power at the same stage than any player he ever had scouted, including McGwire. I hesitate to label anyone as a potential 40-50 homer man, because that's a huge expectation. I will say that Borchard has arguably as much power as anyone in the minors. He headed to Double-A this year with just 27 games of pro experience, and he finished first in the Southern League in RBIs (98), second in homers (27) and runs (98), third in slugging (.505) and fifth in batting (.295). His 158 strikeouts are a bit much, but he did walk 67 times so he's not entirely clueless about plate discipline. I'd rate Dunn a slightly better prospect. Dunn already has hit in Triple-A and the majors, and he has better control of the strike zone. It would be a boon for the White Sox if Borchard could play center field in the majors because they already have Carlos Lee and Magglio Ordonez manning the corners. After playing right field at Stanford, Borchard has switched to center as a pro and the reports out of the Southern League were positive. Bill Ballew, who's writing our Southern League Top 20 Prospects, says most managers thought Borchard looked good in center. They like his athleticism and thought he had at least an average arm. No one suggested that he shouldn't be playing center field. Chicago will give him a serious look in spring training. As an aside, I read recently where an NFL scout told Pro Football Weekly's Joel Bucshbaum (their Allan Simpson) that the top three picks in the 2002 NFL draft, if they had been available, would have been Borchard, Drew Henson and Michael Vick in some order. Borchard and Henson will rank high on our 2002 Top 100 Prospects list, while Vick was the Rockies' 30th-round pick in 2000 despite never playing college baseball.
Ryan Bello State College, Pa. If I were running the Phillies, I'd give Byrd every chance to win my center-field job next spring. Philadelphia has had a surprising season and has some more talent coming through its minor league pipeline, but that can't mask the fact that the big league club needs a real leadoff hitter. Manager Larry Bowa finally realized that Doug Glanville's sub-.300 on-base percentage didn't belong in the No. 1 slot, but Jimmy Rollins (.320 OBP overall, .346 batting leadoff) isn't really suited for the role either. Byrd could stand to walk a bit more if he batted leadoff, but he still should be able to reach base and be a better all-around hitter than either Glanville or Rollins. I don't know what's sadder, that Glanville's on-base percentage is .289 this year or that his on-base plus slugging percentage of .682 is actually a one-point improvement over 2000. He really shouldn't be a big league regular, especially on a contender.
Kevin Janicek Queens, N.Y. Gene Sapakoff, who's writing our South Atlantic League Top 20 Prospects, compares Reyes to Rafael Furcal, who dazzled the Sally League in 1999. Both are precocious Dominican shortstops who play terrific defense, make contact and run well. Unlike a lot of dazzling shortstops who make a ton of errors in the lower minors, Reyes made just 18 errors in 108 games at shortstop. The final stats aren't available yet, but a week ago Reyes' .970 fielding percentage was a good 20 points higher than that of the next-best regular shortstop in the SAL. He also hit .307 with 30 steals in 40 attempts. Reyes had five homers and 42 extra-base hits this year, but he's not going to be much of a power hitter. Soriano has a lot more pop, though both players are similar in that they eschew walks. There's so much skepticism about the ages of Latin American players—and reason for that skepticism—that it's hard to know which ages to believe. Reyes is listed at 18, and I guess until Sports Illustrated looks into the Dominican archives we'll have nothing else to go on.
Maria Ciccarella North Plainfield, N.J. Not really. Cust hasn't gotten appreciably better. He should be playing first base and he's in Greg Luzinski's class as an outfielder. But he has the chance to be a special hitter, and the Diamondbacks should just accept the fact that Cust always will be atrocious defensively and figure out where he'll fit in their lineup. Mark Grace is having a fine season and is in the middle of a very reasonable two-year, $6 million contract. Erubiel Durazo deserves to play as well. Cust may be headed back to Triple-A in 2002 after hitting .278-27-79 with 102 walks this year at age 22. |
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