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 If you have a question, send it to askba@baseballamerica.com. Please include your full name and hometown if you'd like your letter to be considered for use in an upcoming column. We regret that we can't respond to every question. By Jim Callis August 21, 2001 More details keep coming in on Hayato Terahara, the hard-throwing high school righthander from Japan who we've discussed in the last two editions of Ask BA. Gary Garland from Lacey, Wash., emailed me to tell me he had posted the information that Nick Eustrom had referenced, part of Gary's work on www.japanesebaseball.com. Gary wrote:
Hayato Terahara is a Miyazaki, Miyazaki Prefecture native from Nichinan Gakuen (a high school) who gathered a lot of attention during the current Koshien Summer High School Baseball Tournament when he hit the aforementioned number on that scout's radar gun. He also has been clocked at 97 mph by a Hiroshima Carp scout and at 95 by a Mets scout recently. My understanding is that the Mets are all over this guy, as Isao Ojimi has been following him around fairly early on. He saw Terahara throw a no-hitter with 15 strikeouts earlier this year, and was quoted as saying of his curveball: "Even a professional hitter isn't going to hit that." Ted Heid of the Mariners has spoken glowingly of the same pitch, and Tommy Lasorda was enthusiastic after seeing the first Koshien game that Terahara pitched. Physically, he's around 5-foot-10 and 190 pounds with huge thigh muscles and a ripped upper body. He gets most of his velocity from his leg drive and the analogy I would make is that he reminds me of a more conditioned Bartolo Colon. Recently, Terahara has been bothered by some tendinitis in his middle finger but that should clear up with some rest. His team lost its quarterfinal game to Yokohama High on Sunday, so now the only exercise his fingers will be getting will be when he signs a contract. However, having made that remark, the kid reportedly has a killer work ethic and I think he'll prove quite coachable for any MLB club that gets him. When he hit 98 on the gun, it was the fastest pitch ever recorded in Japanese history, equaled only by Hideki Irabu several years back. (I don't know what the Yankees did to him or he did to himself, but I saw Irabu on Japanese television when he was with Chiba Lotte and that velocity was legitimate). The hype over this guy is immense right now. All 12 Japanese pro teams want to sign him and at least five MLB clubs (the Braves, Dodgers, Mariners, Mets and Padres) are heavily scouting him. I'll be posting to the Japanese Baseball site an article as to why Terhara should choose going to the majors over signing with a Japanese team, if you're interested. So there's the scouting report. Gary's website is undergoing renovations right now but should be up and running again by the weekend. A couple of other things need updating as well. Nick Neugebauer would have had to be protected on the Brewers' 40-man roster this winter even if he hadn't been promoted. He signed late in 1998 and didn't pitch that year, but he did agree to a 1998 contact, not a 1999 deal, as we had thought. In any case, I still would have saved the innings on his arm, though he certainly looked good in his big league debut. On the baby front, our fourth child is now four days overdue. I suspect she'll either arrive on her own or be induced before Friday, so this probably will be the only Ask BA of the week. Thanks to everyone who has wished our family well.
Matthew Rhodes Washington, D.C. The Rangers already have assigned a full complement of six players to the Peoria Javelinas, so I'm not sure who will get bumped once Teixeira finalizes his contract. He's still recovering from his broken ankle, so he might see most of his time at DH. Long term, I think Teixeira will play third base for the Rangers, so perhaps Blalock will see some time elsewhere this fall. I get a lot of questions about whether Blalock will move to second base, but I think he's more likely to wind up as a corner outfielder when he moves. Henson is definitely the Yankees' third baseman of the future, so I would think they'd want him to stay there in Arizona.
Michael Stern Mohegan Lake, N.Y. Kotchman should move very quickly for a high school hitter. I wouldn't be surprised if he were ready for the majors after two full years in the minors, which would make him 21 on Opening Day 2004. The son of Angels scout/manager Tom Kotchman, Casey is just so advanced. And not just as a player, but he also knows exactly what to expect in professional baseball because he has spent several summers traveling with his dad in short-season ball. He'll hit for power, he'll hit for average, he'll show excellent plate discipline and he'll be a smooth first baseman. Scouts think he can become another Rafael Palmeiro, and Anaheim lucked out that he lasted until the 13th pick.
Matt Walters Manhattan Who doesn't love young starters, especially these guys? This list comprises several of the game's best young pitching prospects, with some exceptions (such as Josh Beckett). I put together a chart of how they've fared in 2001:
I'll start by ranking these guys in the order I'd take them, though I'll do this David Letterman style and begin with No. 10. There's not much not to like about these guys, so if it seems like I'm nitpicking, that's because I probably am. No. 10 would be Seo because he's the oldest. He'd probably be in the majors already, however, if he hadn't missed most of two years because of Tommy John surgery. No. 9 is Myers. All these pitchers have plus-plus stuff, but Myers isn't having nearly the season the others are enjoying. Then again, he got skipped past high Class A. No. 8 is Malone, because I'm always a little hesitant with guys who come out of nowhere, plus his control still needs work. Can't argue with his results, though. It's Wright versus Howington for the next two spots, and I'm going to put Wright at No. 7 and Howington at No. 6 because Howington is younger, lefthanded and has better command. That leaves me to sort out the top five. No. 5 is Hernandez, whom I ranked too low at No. 14 in the Astros system in the 2001 Prospect Handbook. I like him a lot, but he still needs to throw more strikes and his fastball doesn't rank with the four guys remaining. His curveball is pretty special, though. No. 4 is Redding, who's one of my favorites—which says a lot about the depth on this list. No. 3 is Neugebauer. He has made tremendous strides in learning to harness his unhittable stuff this year. That leaves two Cubs, Cruz and Prior. Cruz may be my favorite prospect, and his big league debut against the Brewers this afternoon was pretty scintillating. But I'll still put him at No. 2 and install Prior, who has yet to throw a professional pitch, at No. 1. Prior has the fastball, breaking ball, command, poise and work ethic to be great. My guess is that with Adam Dunn exhausting his rookie eligibility this season, Beckett and Prior will rank 1-2 on our Top 100 Prospects list next spring. That order pretty much stands for who will do the most over the next three years in the majors. Wright and Seo will contribute more than the younger pitchers in the bottom five. The top five guys all should be factors as well, and I wouldn't be surprised if Prior was up for good before the end of 2002.
Phillip Ramirez Phoenix It doesn't appear that Linden will sign. According to BA draft guru Allan Simpson, San Francisco pulled its offer to its supplemental first-round draft pick (41st overall) off the table after watching Linden go 0-for-9 at the National Baseball Congress World Series for the Everett (Wash.) Merchants. Linden, who hadn't played all summer, didn't look very good. He has been on somewhat of a decline since lighting up the Cape Cod League last summer, getting dismissed from the Washington baseball program and then didn't quite live up to expectations during his junior season at Louisiana State. Linden is expected to attend classes when the fall semester begins in Baton Rouge on Monday. The Tigers also might get second baseman Mike Fontenot back. The Orioles are holding firm on a $1.3 million offer to the first-round pick (19th overall), and Fontenot hasn't taken it yet. August 17, 2001 I asked Nick Eustrom if he had any more information about the 17-year-old Japanese righthander whom he was wondering about in the last installment of Ask BA. Nick responded that he had heard about Hayato Terahara via a message board. According to the posting, at least four major league teams and all 12 Japanese clubs have scouted Terahara. That, of course, begs the question as to why big league teams are watching Terahara if there's a reciprocal agreement between Major League Baseball and the Japanese leagues not to sign a player from the other's domain if his domestic league is interested in him. The answer is: I was wrong when I wrote that understanding still existed. It no longer does, so all free agents are fair game and any MLB team can sign Terahara. Likewise, Mark Prior and Mark Teixeira could head to Japan if they can't reach an agreement with the teams that drafted them in June.
Bruce Norlander Minneapolis Neugebauer has begun to make the transition from thrower to pitcher this season, and the results have been impressive. In 2000, he basically reared back and lit up the radar guns, which led to a fun set of numbers between high Class A and Double-A: 128 innings, 78 hits, 134 walks, 174 strikeouts and a 4.01 ERA. While he can reach 100 mph, Neugebauer has been more content this year to work in the mid-90s and concentrate on putting the ball over the plate. Between Double-A and Triple-A, he has put up 131 innings, 104 hits, 61 walks, 175 strikeouts and a 3.10 ERA. As those statistics show, he has maintained his awesome strikeout rate while cutting his walks by more than half. Yes, he has been more hittable, but there's nothing wrong with a .222 opponent batting average. Moving up to Triple-A Indianapolis didn't faze him, as he went 2-1, 1.50 in four starts, including a 26-9 strikeout-walk ratio in 24 innings. Both Neugebauer and the Brewers deserve a lot of credit for polishing him up, and he has become one of the game's best pitching prospects. His ceiling is about as high as any young arm not named Josh Beckett. But if I were running the Brewers, there's no way I'd promote him to the major leagues right now. It has nothing to do with him being ready (if he's not, he's close) or worrying about his control (which, as noted, has improved markedly). It has everything to do with the fact that Neugebauer turned 21 last month and already has set a career high for innings pitched. He'll probably get eight or nine starts and at least 50 innings in the majors—the most stressful 50 innings his arm ever has faced, and they'll bring his total to 180 for the year (which doesn't count spring training or any future winter assignments). Neugebauer wouldn't have had to be protected on Milwaukee's 40-man roster after the season if he hadn't been promoted, another reason for delaying his debut until next year. If there's a lockout, Neugebauer now will be idled until a new Basic Agreement is reached. All in all, I would have let him pitch through the end of the International League season, then had him compete for a big league rotation spot next spring. It's not like the Brewers are chasing a playoff spot. Regardless of how he pitches for Milwaukee the rest of the way, waiting until 2002 would have been the most prudent course.
Guys like Sean Burroughs and Tony Torcato get better as they move up. Vladimir Guerrero did this, and so did Adam Dunn. Adrian Gonzalez is producing more as he climbs the ladder, while Austin Kearns started off poorly and Corey Patterson has struggled. Jayson Werth is finally putting up decent offensive numbers after being discarded by Baltimore. How much of a player's success has to do with coaching? Are there any noticeable traits other than strike-zone judgment that indicate whether a player will get better like Dunn or struggle like Blanco? Mike Marinaro Tampa Neither Blanco (.258-12-55, 13 walks, 70 strikeouts in 341 at-bats at low Class A Augusta) nor Montanez (.242-5-50, 27 walks, 108 strikeouts in 409 at-bats at low Class A Lansing) is stinging the ball with as much authority as he did a year ago. Both, however, are 19 and in full-season ball, and some struggles should have been anticipated. I think that's a huge reason why they're not posting exceptional numbers, though they're still promising prospects, plate discipline aside. Besides strike-zone judgment, other factors to look at would be age compared to a player's league and his overall performance. I put together the following chart of each league's top position-player prospect from 2000, ranked in order of their strikeout-walk ratio last year, then showed how they're doing this season:
The success of these players correlates fairly well to their 2000 plate discipline. Just two of the players have improved their strikeout-walk ratios this season, Patterson and (by the slimmest of margins) Enrique Cruz. While strike-zone judgment is as good an indicator as any, it's not infallible. Kearns ranked slightly ahead of Dunn as a prospect last year, when each walked nearly as often as he struck out in the low Class A Midwest League. In 2001, Dunn has rocketed to the majors while Kearns has hit .235-3-23 with a 43-20 strikeout-walk ratio in 170 at-bats, most of them in Double-A. A wrist injury hasn't helped, but it doesn't explain his sudden lack of discipline.
Richard Sepulveda San Antonio Lidge was off to a tremendous start at Round Rock this year, going 2-0, 1.73 in five starts, with 42 strikeouts and seven walks in 26 innings. He started feeling discomfort in his shoulder, which was diagnosed as tendinitis. But it never cleared up to the point where he could pitch, so Dr. Lewis Yocum performed arthroscopic surgery to clean out some tissue in Lidge's shoulder at the end of July. The good news is that there were no tears in Lidge's rotator cuff or labrum. He'll begin throwing again this winter and the Astros believe he'll be fully ready for spring training in 2002. Since Houston made him a 1998 first-round pick out of Notre Dame, Lidge has been healthy enough to make just 23 starts in four seasons. When he's right, he throws in the mid- to upper 90s and shows an unhittable slider. He has one more victory (four) than surgeries (three) as a pro. Last year he went under the knife twice, in June to repair a broken forearm and in November to clean out his elbow. Lidge never has had major elbow or shoulder damage, so the Astros still believe he can become a frontline starter. Scouting director David Lakey compares Lidge's fastball and slider to that of Robb Nen. As he was ascending through the minors, Nen had even more injury problems than Lidge has. Nen was shut down at times in each year from 1988-93 with elbow, shoulder, forearm and groin woes. To offer him encouragement, Houston farm director Tim Purpura made a copy of Nen's bio in the Giants media guide and gave it to Lidge.
Al Flynt Tampa The AFL has a new twist this year, as a handful of players will be eligible to play only on Wednesday and Saturday. This will allow major league teams to send more prospects to Arizona. It also should lessen the workload of pitchers who logged a lot of innings during the regular season and those who are recovering from injury. I'm still not sure how, say, the Grand Canyon Rafters will squeeze Marlon Byrd, Austin Kearns, Michael Restovich and Tony Torcato into three outfield spots, but overall this change should make juggling playing time somewhat easier. August 14, 2001 With about three weeks to go in the minor league season, it's a good time to handicap the Minor League Player of the Year race. In my opinion, it comes down to two guys: Marlins righthander Josh Beckett and Reds outfielder Adam Dunn. Beckett threw seven no-hit innings with 12 strikeouts last night, improving his record to 6-1, 1.92 in 10 starts for Double-A Portland. Overall, including his 13 games at high Class A Brevard County, Beckett is 12-1, 1.55 with a 185-31 strikeout-walk ratio and a .172 opponent batting average in 122 innings. Dunn tore up Double-A and Triple-A, hitting .334-32-84 with 11 stolen bases in 94 games. Getting promoted to the Reds in mid-July didn't make him ineligible for the award. While his big league numbers (.267-5-17 in 22 games) aren't as gaudy as his minor league stats, Dunn has walked 18 times and has a .923 on-base plus slugging percentage—which is 21 points higher than Ken Griffey Jr.'s. For now, it's too close to call. I'm almost certain that Beckett will be No. 1 on our 2002 Top 100 Prospects List (at least on my ballot) because Dunn will have lost his rookie eligibility by the end of this season. But I'm not sure who I'd vote for Player of the Year. On a personal note, the due date for my fourth child is Friday. If the baby comes then, there won't be an Ask BA on its regularly scheduled day. And as I take some time off, Ask BA probably will run once rather than twice per week for a couple of weeks. To prepare everyone for Ask BA withdrawal, we'll answer five questions today.
Also, what are your feelings on Carl Crawford's progress this year at Double-A Orlando? He seems to be doing all right, but his slugging is in the low to mid-.300s and he doesn't even seem to have warning-track power yet. Michael Medeiros Orlando Teams are reluctant to let guys play both ways, with rare exceptions. The Pirates are letting 2001 first-round pick John VanBenschoten hit and pitch for the moment, but that's essentially to keep him happy while they plan on making him a full-time pitcher in the future. With Ankiel, the Cardinals are just trying to do whatever they can to help him combat Steve Blass Disease. Almost always, however, teams make the decision for the player. Dave Winfield had Hall of Fame potential as a pitcher, but the Padres wanted him to focus on being an outfielder. The general concern is that a player will have a difficult time developing or will have an increased chance of getting hurt if he doesn't concentrate on one role, though it would have been fun to see what Winfield could have done on the mound. I'm actually pleasantly surprised by how Nash has performed in the Rookie-level Appalachian League this year. For a teenager who never played high school ball, he's doing very well. He's hitting .263-5-17 in 32 games, with respectable numbers for walks (14), on-base percentage (.341) and slugging percentage (.482). His 50 strikeouts in 114 at-bats do show that he has some holes in his swing, but he's far from being totally clueless and I think deserves the chance to see what he can do with more experience. As for Crawford, I like him as a prospect but I don't see the point in having him skip a level to jump to Double-A at age 19. He's hitting .272 with 30 steals in 110 games, yet his on-base (.324) and slugging (.353) percentages have regressed from .342 and .410, respectively, last year at low Class A Charleston. He's never going to be much of a power hitter, though he needs to improve at the plate to blossom into the leadoff man that Tampa Bay envisions. He would have had a better chance doing so this year had he started at high Class A Bakersfield. The Devil Rays aren't going to win anytime soon, so what's the rush?
James McNeany Delphi, Ind. Jackson keeps good company, as Braves shortstop Wilson Betemit, Phillies outfielder Marlon Byrd and Dunn all were named the most exciting player in their leagues. (In Dunn's case, he earned that distinction in two leagues.) Jackson got the nod in the FSL because he can do a little of everything. He has hit for average (.306) and power (46 extra-base hits, including 14 homers in a tough league for longballs), run (20 steals) and showed range and arm strength in the outfield. Jackson, 21, was a third-round pick out of the University of Richmond last year, a choice the Cubs got from the Devil Rays as compensation for free agent Steve Trachsel. He's a legit prospect, and the best-case scenario is that Jackson develops into a Brian Jordan, another former Spider. While he didn't make our Cubs Top 10 list, Jackson was featured in our inaugural Prospect Handbook.
Is LeCroy in the Twins' plans? Does he have the skills to play catcher in the majors? If not, does he have enough bat to play first base or DH in the majors? John Walsh Chicago LeCroy's catching skills never have been a strong suit, even when he was setting the single-season and career home run records at Clemson. He starred on the 1996 U.S. Olympic team—as a DH. A 1997 supplemental first-round pick, he threw out just 24 percent of basestealers in the majors last year and has posted the same rate in 14 games behind the plate in Triple-A this season. A ribcage injury and a bruised thigh have limited his time at catcher in 2001. I think LeCroy will be part of Minnesota's long-term lineup, though not at catcher. He offers considerable righthanded power and is batting .330-17-68 in 84 games this year. He has hit throughout his college and pro career, except for when he reached the majors last year and produced .175-5-17 totals in 56 games. In his defense, he had played just 32 games above Class A at that point and wasn't quite ready. LeCroy could fit at first base, where Doug Mientkiewicz has a less-than-enthralling .452 slugging percentage since his sizzling April, or at DH if David Ortiz falls into manager Tom Kelly's doghouse again.
Nick Eustrom Woodland Hills, Calif. Major League Baseball and the Japanese major leagues have a reciprocal agreement not to sign a player from the other's domain if his domestic league is interested in him. In other words, if a Japanese team wants to draft this player—I'm not sure who he is—then MLB clubs would lay off him. However, if a Japanese high schooler isn't drafted, then he would be eligible to sign with an MLB team as a free agent. To my knowledge, this has happened twice. The Mets signed lefthander Juei Ushiromatsu in November 1997, but he got hurt and washed out quickly. The Padres landed another lefty, Nobuaki Yoshida, in January 2000, and he ranked 12th on our Padres list in the 2001 Prospect Handbook.
Rick Barrett Sacramento If there's a work stoppage, which almost certainly would be a lockout by the owners, I can't imagine it lasting into June. If it did, the 2002 season would be in great peril and baseball would have found a way to alienate fans again. But assuming that did happen, the first-year player draft would proceed, because teams still would have to sign amateur free agents. Can you imagine how stocked the independent leagues might be if there was no draft? In this doomsday scenario of a draft during a lockout, there would be a couple of changes. One, bonuses would be suppressed because teams wouldn't be raking in money as usual. Two, no player would get a major league contract, because anyone who did would be immediately locked out. So there might be more holdouts than usual, though that also has been the case this summer without a work stoppage. We tried to explore possible changes in our Fix The Draft issue (BA, May 28-June 10), but baseball officials were afraid to talk in fear of invoking the wrath (and more important, a $1 million fine) from commissioner Bud Selig. There has been discussion that a new Basic Agreement could include either a cap on all bonuses spent on amateur players, or a slotted bonus system similar to what the NBA has. If that happens, the effects likely would trickle down to picks in lower rounds. August 10, 2001 I've received a few emails following up on Josh Phelps and my assessment of him as a catcher in Tuesday's installment of Ask BA. They generally bring up a couple of points: Phelps has made just two errors in 57 games behind the plate, and his Double-A Tennessee manager, Rocket Wheeler, gave him a strong endorsement in a BA story written by Bill Ballew. I should have noted that because he and Jayson Werth have been Smokies teammates since May, Phelps hasn't caught as much as he would otherwise. But error totals are meaningless for catchers, unless they're absurdly high. A backstop's success rate at throwing out basestealers is much more significant. And with Phelps and Werth handling the same pitching staff, it's easy to compare them. Phelps has gunned down 10 of 61, a .164 percentage that ranks last among the 14 Southern League catchers with 40 or more attempts. Werth has been more than twice as good, with a .349 percentage that ranks fourth. (Joe Lawrence has a .232 mark at Triple-A Syracuse, so he's struggling defensively as well as offensively.) Last year, Phelps had a .229 overall rate, which dropped to .135 after his promotion to Double-A. I believe in Josh Phelps as a hitter. But I've never talked to anyone in scouting or player development who has projected him as a big league catcher. Yes, Mike Piazza isn't much defensively, but I'm going to wait for Phelps to crank out a few .325-35-110 seasons in the majors before I make that comparison. I respect Phelps' bat very much, as he hits for average and power to go with on-base ability, but I'm just not convinced he's going to be Toronto's catcher of the future.
Chip Ferguson Columbus, Ohio Everything that went right for Perez last year has gone wrong in 2001. After joining the Mariners as the third-best player in the Ken Griffey Jr. trade, he led the high Class A California League with a .527 slugging percentage and blossomed into the best shortstop prospect in the game. Then he showed up out of shape in spring training. Making matters worse, doctors discovered a broken navicluar bone in his right wrist, which he apparently injured during the winter. Perez sat out the first two months of this season before joining Double-A San Antonio. He played in five games, going 3-for-21 with seven strikeouts, before the wrist began bothering him again. He's now out for the season. Perez' wrist is back in a cast, and the latest tests have indicated that it's healing on its own and won't require surgery. The Mariners will have Perez examined again at the end of August to double-check that prognosis. There's no timetable on when he'll be back to 100 percent, but Seattle hopes he can play in instructional league and winter ball to get ready for spring training 2002. If he needs screws inserted in the wrist for it to heal properly, he won't see action until next spring. Perez still ranks as one of the best shortstop prospects in the game, but Wilson Betemit and Felipe Lopez have passed him in my mind. Perez hasn't played, as opposed to playing badly, so we pretty much have to judge him on what he did in 2000.
Steve Vargo Fountain Hills, Ariz. In Detroit, we've all heard a lot about what Nate Cornejo was doing in the minors. But the guy who replaced him at Double-A Erie, Andy Van Hekken, seems to be putting up some good numbers as well. What's the deal with him? Other than being the guy GM Randy Smith got for Brian Hunter, I haven't heard much about him. How legitimate a prospect is he? Jim Penner East Lansing, Mich. There's no easy way to check this, but I believe that Van Hekken's 30 victories over the last two seasons have to lead all minor league pitchers. He has gone 14-4, 3.15 in 23 starts between high Class A Lakeland and Erie in 2001, including 134 hits, 35 walks and 99 strikeouts in 137 innings. A 1998 third-round pick by Seattle out of a Michigan high school, Van Hekken is 22. Rather than overpowering hitters, he outsmarts them with his fastball, curveball and changeup. Many lefthanded prospects get compared to Glavine, but in most cases that's a stretch and this is one of them. Glavine isn't a power pitcher, but he throws in the low 90s and he's a future Hall of Famer with better stuff than Van Hekken. Van Hekken is a legitimate prospect, but he fits more toward the back end of a rotation than the front. The Tigers have to protect him on the 40-man roster after this season, so there's a good chance they'll promote him in September. However, if they do that, he could be affected by the possible lockout, so perhaps they'll resist the temptation.
Justin Riddick Alamo, Tenn. We won't know for sure until the new Basic Agreement gets hammered out, but there's a good chance compensation for free agents will go by the wayside. The current system doesn't work on a number of levels. Small-revenue teams sometimes lose out because they're afraid to offer arbitration to their free agents, a must in order to receive the extra draft choices. Even if those clubs get those picks, they often have to draft lesser players so they can afford the increased bonus payments. We also have seen inequitable situations, such as when the Orioles and Rangers signed the other club's first baseman (Will Clark, Rafael Palmeiro) after the 1998 offseason—and each team got an extra draft pick out of the bargain. The union seemingly would be in favor of scrapping the compensation system, which would lead to a more free market for free agents. But that also might mean the union would then lose its legal right to contest changes to the annual first-year player draft, so the status quo could prevail.
Also, if you had to choose any lefthander in the game, who would you take? I like Mark Buehrle because of age (22), era (2.90, leads the AL), and durability (on pace for about 220 innings). Though Mark Mulder has a good case as well. Who would you take and why? David Johnson Buffalo Grove, Ill. I don't think the NL Central teams have made a concerted effort to avoid having lefties in their rotation. I'm sure they'd love to have some. And there are some quality prospects on the way for the Astros (Carlos Hernandez, Greg Miller), Cubs (Aaron Krawiec, Steve Smyth), Pirates (Sean Burnett) and Reds (Ty Howington). And don't forget Chris Narveson with the Cardinals. Chicago also spent $1 million to sign power southpaw Andy Sisco as a second-round pick in June. Pittsburgh has had Jimmy Anderson in its rotation all year, and Joe Biemel and David Williams have gotten recent looks. I think the lack of lefties is more of an anomaly than anything. I assume you mean which young lefthander and for the long run, because I'd take Randy Johnson if I could have any lefty for this season. From the under-25 crowd, I'd have to choose between Mulder (24), Barry Zito (23), Buehrle and C.C. Sabathia (21). And that's a very, very tough call. All four are guys to build around, but I'll take Zito just barely over Sabathia. Sabathia has the size and the upper-90s fastball, though Zito also has a big-time pitch in his curveball, plus he throws in the low 90s and has superior command at this point. I like Mulder and Buehrle a lot, but they don't miss as many bats as Zito and Sabathia do. August 7, 2001 Kudos to the Hall of Fame for the changes it made. The old Veterans Committee is no more, which is a good thing. I don't have any problem with putting Bill Mazeroski or Hilton Smith in this year, but there has been too much cronyism involved with the selections. When Frankie Frisch was on the committee, Cooperstown suddenly became littered with his former teammates, many of whom rank among the worst players honored. In recent years, Phil Rizzuto and Vic Willis were dubious choices. To me, the Hall should be reserved for players who were the best or among the very best at their position for an extended period of time. With the dissolution of the old Veterans Committee, there's a better chance of that standard being upheld. I like the idea of the living players, writers and broadcasters replacing the committee and voting every two years. I like the idea that the voting will be public. I like the idea that any player who spent 10 years in the majors will be eligible for consideration. I like the idea that even if a player doesn't receive 5 percent of the writers' vote, he won't be barred from entering Cooperstown forever. There's too much quirkiness among the writers' balloting to have that hard-and-fast rule.
If these players were up for redrafting who would you take first? (Ignore for now factors such as signing costs, the difference in relative value due to Cleveland's shallow farm system and the fact that Arnold was a reliever most of his college career and thus has even less mileage on his arm.) True college aces are more valuable than high school phenoms, correct? Patrick Murphy Brooklyn Arnold and Martin are having two of the best, if not the best, pro debuts among 2001 draftees. Arnold, a second-round pick of the Yankees, is 7-0, 1.17 after eight short-season starts (including a no-hitter), with 27 hits and a 62-12 strikeout-walk ratio in 54 innings. Martin, a supplemental first-rounder of the Indians, is 3-1, 1.71 through seven Rookie-level starts, with 14 hits and a 48-6 K-BB ratio in 32 innings. Arnold is more of a power pitcher while Martin has exquisite control, though that's not really the issue here. I don't believe that college aces are more valuable than high school phenoms. I do believe college pitchers are safer than their high school counterparts for a variety of reasons. There's less projection involved, because the college guys are older, more physically developed and have faced better competition. Also, there's a better sense of whether the college guys' health will hold up. Trying to determine what might happen to a high school arm is just guesswork, while there's generally three more years of history to go on with a college pitcher. I'd take Martin over Arnold if I had to pick right now, based on what we know, without regard to cost or future role. While Arnold throws about 5 mph harder than Martin at this point, Martin is four years younger and he's so projectable at 6-foot-5 and 175 pounds. His combination of stuff, movement and command excites me. I'd take the risk and go with Martin, though I do think that Arnold could get to Yankee Stadium very quickly.
Jason Brandt Memphis The Blue Jays have three catchers with lots of potential: Joe Lawrence, Josh Phelps and Jayson Werth. I was wondering which one in your opinion is the best and when can we expect to see them in the majors for good? Marc Allen Surrey, B.C. I read where Jim Callis said that Jason Werth is making a push to be the catcher of the future for the Blue Jays over Joe Lawrence. Am I the only person who has noticed the monster year that Josh Phelps is having so far? Defensively, he has only two errors all season. Do you think that Phelps is going to be a star and would you compare him to a Mike Lieberthal-type of catcher or would you say he has even further upside? Jim Shipp New York Lots of Phelps questions this time around, and BA's own Geoff Wilson asked me about him after my comments in the chat we've hyperlinked just above. Phelps has a legitimate bat. He had a big year in the high Class A Florida State League in 1999, and he's batting .303-24-81 in 110 Double-A games in 2001. The reason I didn't mention him, however, is that he's a catcher in name only. He has gone behind the plate just 55 times this year, and he hasn't been much of a catcher since injuring his elbow and DHing for all of 1999. He's comparable to Craig Wilson of the Pirates, who has plenty of power but doesn't throw well and couldn't be counted on to catch regularly in the majors. For point of offensive comparison, Lawrence is batting .223-1-17 in 74 Triple-A games and Werth is hitting .284-16-64 in 98 games between high Class A and Double-A. Both of them are former first-round picks, with Werth being chosen by the Orioles. Lawrence's plate discipline has deteriorated while Werth's has improved, and in my mind he has to rank first among the three players in Toronto's long-range catching plans. I could see Werth arriving sometime late next season if he keeps progressing like this. I thought Lawrence had a chance to possibly blossom into the game's best catching prospect this year, but that hasn't happened.
Chris Kemmitt Hanson, Mass. Check out the July archives to see my position on why Duquette is anything but an idiot. But if he had traded Song for Christiansen (who I've always liked, by the way), that would have been a horribly shortsighted move. A righthander signed out of Korea in 1999, Song has overpowered hitters at two Class A stops this year, going 7-3, 1.92 in 20 starts, including 77 hits (just four homers), 32 walks and 121 strikeouts in 112 innings—and he just turned 21. He has that rare combination of power and command, and he's the organization's best prospect at this time. Both you and Duquette should be happy that the Urbina trade didn't fall through.
Is there any indication of what scouts think of his ability? Any indication to where the Twins see him fitting in their plans? He was used as both a starter and closer at Illinois. Derrick Landers Champaign, Ill. Vorwald is having a huge debut, though he's a bit advanced for Rookie ball. Nonetheless, his 4-0, 0.85 record in 15 relief appearances is eye-catching, as are his .170 opponent batting average and 44 whiffs in 32 innings. That's a far cry from the 5-4, 6.22 record he posted at Illinois this spring. Command was his biggest problem, and he still needs to work on it, as evidenced by his 16 walks. He throws an 89-93 mph sinker, and his slider and changeup show promise at times. He's also known for his competitiveness. The Twins aren't really challenging him at all, considering his level and his setup role, so he's not in the forefront of their plans yet. August 3, 2001 Judging by my email, many of you checked out the column I wrote ranking the best young players involved in all the deadline deals. I only had room in our latest issue to go 10 deep, but I actually ranked a top 20 in preparation for the column. Here are 11-20, with a quick comment on each:
12. Mario Encarnacion, of, Rockies (23). Tremendous tools, but will he learn how to use them? 13. Alejandro Machado, 2b, Royals (19). Possible leadoff man of the future. 14. Ben Shaffar, rhp, Reds (23). Lively fastball, tough splitter = Florida State League leader in strikeouts. 15. Adam Walker, lhp, Mets (25). Nothing overpowering about him except the final results. 16. Brad Voyles, rhp, Royals (24). Minor league hitters have yet to solve this 45th-rounder from 1998. 17. Brett Jodie, rhp, Padres (24). Control pitcher got rocked in lone big league start with Yankees. 18. Adrian Burnside, lhp, Pirates (24). Aussie can reach mid-90s when his elbow isn't bothering him. 19. Kris Foster, rhp, Orioles (26). Finally healthy, blew Triple-A hitters away with upper-90s heat. 20. Kevin Joseph, rhp, Giants (25). Throws 100 mph, but hasn't handled anything but setup role in minors. Thanks to everyone who sent in all the fine questions for this afternoon's chat. I wish I had time to answer more of them. On to the Ask BA mailbag, which was bursting with questions relating to the draft, so that's our theme for the day . . .
Dustin Wilson Bloomington, Ill. Of the top six picks, only No. 1 Joe Mauer (Twins) has signed, and he cost $5.15 million, a record for a high school draft pick who didn't gain loophole free agency. The next five picks—Prior (Cubs), Brazelton (Devil Rays), Gavin Floyd (Phillies), Teixeira (Rangers) and Josh Karp (Expos)—all apparently are holding out for major league contracts, not to mention sizeable bonuses. With the commissioner's office trying to clamp down on bonuses, I don't think any of them will sign in time to play this season, and some of these players may negotiate well into the fall. I'd be surprised if any of them didn't sign, but I think the respective teams will wait it out as long as possible in order to avoid the ire of Sandy Alderson. (I'm not sure Bud Selig actually gets made about draft bonuses.) In the long run, it doesn't' matter if these guys miss a summer of pro ball. If they sign quick enough, they still can get in some instructional league time before heading to spring training next year. Advanced as they are, Prior and Teixeira wouldn't have contributed much, if anything, in the majors this year. They can head directly to full-season ball in 2002 and begin their quick ascent to the majors. It would have been nice for the teams and fans if these picks had signed quickly and begun playing, but they'll be fine.
With all those things in his favor, will his rise occur quickly? Also, how does he rank as a prospect in their organization? Do you think the Yankees will keep him as a starter or return him to the bullpen as a closer or setup man? That was his original role at Central Florida as a freshman, sophomore and junior. Shane Garrett Pensacola, Fla. Much as with Drew Henson, the Reds' loss is the Yankees' gain. Cincinnati drafted Arnold in the 16th round in 2000, but wouldn't give him the $60,000 he wanted to sign. Arnold returned to Central Florida and had a great year (14-3, 1.97, 150 strikeouts in 119 innings) before the Yankees drafted him as a second-round pick. In seven starts in short-season ball, he has been even better, going 6-0, 0.58 with 48 strikeouts in 47 innings. NY-P opponents are batting .136 against him. Shane's scouting report on Arnold is very accurate. At 6-foot-3 and 180 pounds, he does project to get stronger. Considering all of the success he has had as a senior and in his pro debut as a starter, I can't imagine that New York will change his role any time soon. He does have two power pitches that would serve him well as a closer, but he also has a three-pitch repetoire and throws strikes, so he should be able to succeed as a starter. He could shoot through the minors, possibly making it to Yankee Stadium sometime in 2003. We won't sort out all the Yankees prospects until the offseason, but Arnold has a good chance to crack their Top 10 when we do the list.
Mike Frost Columbus, Ga. Georgia had the deepest array of talent in the draft, loaded with quality pitchers and hitters, high schoolers and collegians. The Peach State accounted for five first-round picks, one of whom was McBride, who went 24th overall to the Braves. He has the highest upside because he's lefthanded and throws a heavy mid-90s fastball. Long (fourth round) might be the second-most polished pitcher in the group, while Frost (sixth) and Mitchell (fourth) are both 6-foot-7 and have a lot of projection. DeChristofaro (seventh) looked great at times during the spring, throwing in the low 90s, though he was down to 86 shortly before the draft. Jackson (sixth) wasn't nearly as heralded and the Dodgers are also letting him play the outfield. If I could pick three guys out of this group, I'd pick McBride, Long and Mitchell. Mitchell could really blossom now that he has given up on basketball after being an all-state hoops player in high school. McBride should reach the majors first, but I wouldn't expect to see him in Atlanta before late 2004 at the earliest.
Ross Williams Portland, Ore. Macri would have been the first Iowa high school player ever drafted in the first round if teams thought it would be possible to sign him. The Blue Jays reportedly asked him if he'd accept $2 million if they took him in the first round, but he declined. Some clubs believed he was the best shortstop in the draft, and he also showed a 92-94 mph fastball and a hard slider on the mound. He's a tremendous athlete who was named Iowa's high school football player of the year after accounting for 36 touchdowns and leading Dowling High to a 13-0 record and the state 4-A title. The Twins spent a lot on Mauer and they've added to their payroll as they make a surprising run at the playoffs. Because of that, I don't see them coming up with the roughly $3 million it might take to persuade Macri to turn pro. It was worth the gamble, however. If for some reason Mauer hadn't signed, Minnesota could have met Macri's asking price and treated him as its first-round pick. Most of the Fighting Irish's draftees and drafted recruits went much lower than expected, so Notre Dame should hold onto most of them. The Irish could be ranked in the top five or 10 teams when we release our College Top 25 this winter. |
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