Moderator: Hi Everybody! (Hi, Dr. Nick!) Always fun to hop in for a college chat, and it's always fun to see Eppley Airfield in front of you. That means you're landing in Omaha, which after some delays in DFW, I did. This is my 10th trip since 1998 (I missed out on the '06 Series), and it's always fun to come here. I'm excited, so let's talk college baseball.

Moderator: Buster wasn't the only candidate, but he was the best candidate. At midseason, San Diego State's Stephen Strasburg was making a huge run at the award—he just was so dominant, it was shaping up as a pitching season to rival Mark Prior in 2001 or Jered Weaver in 2004. But he stumbled late, I believe he lost his last two starts, and that kind of knocked him out. Brian Matusz was in the race as well, but Posey's biggest competitor was Gordon Beckham of Georgia, similar season, similar up-the-middle defensive spot, but Posey's season was better offensively, plus he racked up six saves as a sometime-closer. In the end I thought it was an easy decision.

John Manuel: For Fresno to win it all here, Justin Wilson and Clayton Allison have got to be at their best. Fresno's offense is solid, Aaron broke down how it really isn't super compared to the other teams here, but it is a solid offense and they can score. The real question is how will they pitch. Wilson and Allison have experience, Wilson has excellent stuff and needs to harness it, as he did for the most part in the season's final month. Arizona State shellacked him but he needs to bounce back from that. Allison is mostly in the mid-to-upper 80s with his fastball, but on better days he's 88-91 and he's downhill and tough to elevate. If those two pitch deep into games, Fresno has a real chance, because Brandon Burke is an experienced, durable, reliable closer. That's probably how it has to happen — Fresno's starting pitchers have to be at their best.

John Manuel: San Diego. I obviously didn't factor in the Fresno factor. USD faltered last year in the regional and I really thought that experience would help motivate the Toreros this year. Also, they seemed deeper offensively than I thought. Now you have to wonder when USD is ever going to get to Omaha; will it ever have two LHPs like Romanski and Matusz again? Hard to imagine. USD still has pitching and that staff does a great job recruiting, but not winning a regional with that group, that's just shocking. I'll also throw in Long Beach State, hard to believe the Dirtbags haven't been to Omaha since 1998 with the talent they have had. I know this year's team rallied late to tie for the Big West title, but that team had 11 players drafted; I think you have to label this year's club a disappointment for not going further.

John Manuel: So far so good because I didn't feel quite as rushed getting out here, but that's selfish, I just wanted to hang out with my kids more. I can tell you that Aaron Fitt and the ESPN folks and many NCAA folks will be here for two weeks or three for many of them, and that's a long, long time. I'm sure they'd like it to be over sooner than later, and now it's going to be over later. I do understand the argument, however, that such a large event should not start with no one watching on a Friday afternoon. I get that. Starting on Saturday makes more sense from that standpoint.

John Manuel: I'm going to pick Miami's Yonder Alonso in a redux of Pat Burrell's winning the MOP in 1996 while on the losing side. Florida State also has had a MOP while losing in the finale, in 1999 with Marshall McDougall. I hope neither player suffers excruciating defeats like those teams did, Burrell and Miami losing on Warren Morris' homer in '96 and McDougall and the Seminoles losing by a run to Miami in '99 even after Blair Varnes pitched the championship game on a bum knee. Depending on which podcast you listen to, I've picked Miami and North Carolina, and I guess right now I'm still picking UNC because of Alex White and those power arms.

John Manuel: Yo Chuck, they out to get us man . . . Sorry, channeled Flava Flave there for a sec.

John Manuel: I kind of like Rice's chances too, looking at their team, they remind me a lot of North Carolina. They have no real superstar statistically but no weakness, and they are probably a shade better defensively than the Tar Heels at some key spots. Problem is, I think North Carolina's pitching is a bit better and those teams are in the same bracket. I would rank Rice second on that bracket, just ahead of LSU, but this is a strong field all around. Nothing against Fresno but I really do think any of the other seven teams are very believable as champions.

John Manuel: You know, I really do think it's deeper. Miami's just a big stronger all the way around for me. Both teams have solid but unspectacular starting pitching; Miami's bullpen is deeper and I think it has the better, more talented lineup. Florida State has put up better numbers but I don't think the numbers tell the whole story. Miami is better offensively at every spot in the infield for me, better in CF, the OF corners are a push . . . then there's that Posey guy. He is just so good he skews everything for Fla. State. Those teams played head to head in Tallahassee and FSU couldn't stop Miami, Miami won 2 of 3, I just think Miami's a bit better.

John Manuel: You're welcome Taylor. Jose Duran was in the mix for the third-team spot, and being Big 12 POY was a big factor in his favor. Beckham was a no-brainer first-team choice for me, just as Reese Havens was the obvious choice for second team. Duran vs. Grant Green (vs. some others, though I don't have the worksheet in front of me) was actually a fairly lengthy discussion. Our reports from coaches, scouts, etc., was that Green was considered a strong defender at short and perhaps was a bit better defensively, and the offensive numbers were similar. In Duran's favor was value to his team and the team's accomplishments, far superior to Green's. But in the end we decided it's more about the individual and thought Green's season was a bit better.

John Manuel: The folks here love to talk about the improvements they've made, but I can't find much evidence of any significant ones this year; I would guess they are saving up for the new park, which is a pity. As friend of BA Kirk Kenney told me today, with all these floods in the Midwest another reason to keep Rosenblatt should become apparent — it occupies the high ground. To track changes at the 'Blatt through the years, check here: http://www.cwsomaha.com/stadium/stadium-improvements.html?phpMyAdmin=2573818938d4378ae74b2ed304c28d93

John Manuel: Darren, I'm going with Dustin Ackley of North Carolina because for me, he's the best pure hitter here along with Yonder Alonso and of course Buster Posey. Blake Tekotte of Miami and Florida State's Tyler Holt also are excellent leadoff men, and Cord Phelps of Stanford gets the job done though he does it differently from those other guys. Ackley is fast, he's locked in, he's just got a sweet, short swing . . . I think he's the best position player ever at North Carolina, surpassing B.J. Surhoff. I doubt he surpasses Surhoff in the draft since Surhoff went No. 1 overall back in 1985, but Ackley has one weakness—his throwing arm. If he ever throws better he's a Steve Finley kind of player, or maybe a Bernie Williams without the switch-hitting. He's just an amazing hitter who also has power and excellent, under-rated speed.

John Manuel: Neat question. Here are a couple of examples that might tell the story. Can you imagine the scene if there's a close game and Posey gets on the mound for FSU? He's just such a special player, and the best part is he brings out the best Mike Martin quotes, coach Martin (can I call him Eleven?) just gushes over this guy, and no one gushes like Mike Martin. The other guy who changes a game for me is Sean Ratliff. He might be the most exciting player here. He has a huge swing and a billion strikeouts. He has immense power, light-tower power. He plays a very solid center field and has a plus arm — he's low 90s off the mound at his best. And he's Stanford's top baserunner. He can do a lot of things, positively and negatively, either start a rally or kill one at the plate or in the field (or even on the mound). Those are the guys I think of with your question.

John Manuel: It's the best I can think of in the college ranks, at least by a big-time prospect. I bet Joe Mauer put up sick numbers in Minnesota; I also recall him hitting like .615 for USA Baseball's junior national team in like 2000 or so, and just killing the ball forever as an amateur. I can't find Jason Varitek's stats right now but he was pretty far behind Posey in terms of sheer numbers. It's just an amazing season for any position, then you throw in catcher AND the fact he closes, and it's just a historic season.

John Manuel: I believe I have indicated that I think he's better. Different and better. Erstad's hitting is always overrated because his peaks are really good, but his peaks are also pretty outside of his normal production. If Ackley stays at first base, he'll learn to hit for more power, but even if he doesn't, he'd profile if he's hitting .300 or .320 with 40 doubles and 15-20 homers.

John Manuel: That's fair. If it's a righthanded pitcher I'd go with Alonso first, but against a lefty I'd go Posey, then Ackley and then Alonso. From this event, G. Beckham obviously has to be in that mix as well, and against a lefty I'd take him over Alonso. Ackley is so pure, he seems to hang in well vs. LHPs, but I admit I don't have the stats to back me up.

John Manuel: Well, there's no such thing as a lock in baseball, is there? I've picked Miami to face UNC in the finals, but this is a strong CWS field. It's pretty open. I'm picking those two teams because they have been the best teams all year and they are health.

John Manuel: See, a Bostonian had to ask this because the Red Sox have had 4 different DP combos over each of the last four years, and won World Series with Mark Bellhorn at 2b and then with Julio Lugo at SS. So I can see why you think we're overrating it. I do think we've mentioned it a lot this year but honestly, it's really more of a tiebreaker for us, it's not the sole determining factor. If two teams seem close to equal, I will give the edge to the team that's better defensively up the middle, at those crucial defensive positions such as C and SS and CF. I guess that just comes from listening to a lot of coaches and scouts over the years. Defense goes a long way in college baseball, where the players are, after all, amateurs, i.e., not as good, and there are more mistakes and errors made. Making fewer mistakes usually gives you a better chance to win. So that's why we talk about that so much. But you've got Julio Lugo at shortstop, no wonder you think it doesn't matter. I don't blame you.

John Manuel: I believe ESPN is smart and I believe it will market the prospects. They did so leading up to the draft this year and did so again in the super-regionals. But a lot of people watch the CWS for the color of the event, too, so they aren't going to turn into Baseball America overnight. Guess what — the way they do it is more profitable.

John Manuel: Duncan, I don't know Rooney personally other than a handshake and hello here and there, but I do know his reputation, which is a tireless worker who is an excellent evaluator of talent and who also knows how to get that talent to get to school. He helped get Justin Verlander from Goochland High to Old Dominion, and this LSU team is loaded with talented newcomers he had a hand in snaring (D.J. LeMahieu and juco transfer Matt Clark leap to mind). How about that growing Paul Mainieri coaching tree — I'm sure I'm leaving some out but Rooney joins David Grewe (Michigan State) and Brian O'Connor (Virginia) at the least as former Mainieri assistants who are now leading their own programs. Congratulations to Paul for that and to Terry for his first head coaching gig.

John Manuel: I'll keep up the Dustin Ackley lovefest but throw out other nominations such as Stephen Strasburg, Blake Dean of LSU (the guy just keeps raking in two yaers at LSU) and Arizona State's Mike Leake, just an amazing competitor and athlete. UNC's Alex White and Mizzou's Kyle Gibson also should be in that mix.

John Manuel: I will, but you just did too. You're right, maybe Stanford should get Mathew Wilson of Bucknell to transfer in for this game. But actually, Stanford has a guy like that in Erik Davis, their senior RHP, who is more 86-90 mph with his fastball, works off the changeup at times and has a similar but better quality repertoire as Wilson. Problem is, Davis has been brutal down the stretch, he's just gassed and hasn't been the same since his four straight complete games early in the Pac-10 Conference season. I'm guessing Stanford goes with Jeremy Bleich in the opener but they are talking about that right now at the press conference, which I'm missing in order to chat with you jokers.

John Manuel: Peisel had a strong freshman year at East Carolina and we know he always has been a good hitter, but I think he had to adjust to the quality of SEC pitching. He's gotten more patient and that's helped him tap into his power more. I'm a big fan of players who show aptitude and improve like that, or as Olson has by cutting his strikeouts, making more contact consistently and drawing more walks. Peisel and Olson really just make themselves into tough outs so often, they both get on base at .400+ clips, and that makes it tough to pitch around Beckham. Those guys are key no doubt.

John Manuel: I would say UCF getting to Omaha will be like UCF's first trip to Omaha. There's nothing like actually getting here with your first team. I'd also say that UCF hasn't been on a positive road for some time now . . . this program was a No. 1 seed back in 2001 with Arnold and Pope, and since then they haven't won consistently, they've had off-field stuff go on, they had the mess with Tim Bascom and not letting him have a scholarship his senior year . . . I didn't have a positive opinion of the program over the last few years. I agree this hire was key to move the Knights back in the right direction.

John Manuel: Because White has gotten better since then, and he's pitched in the CWS before. Hernandez is a talented player, but he's also a freshman who's worked more innings than ever, is just coming off starting on a Friday and relieving on a Sunday, and will be pitching in Rosenblatt for the first time. All that, plus the fact that White has better stuff, gives White the edge for me. Erickson has struggled for Miami down the stretch and Enrique Garcia, while a senior, is notoriously inconsistent. Meanwhile, North Carolina's Adam Warren has two CWS wins on his resume and a 22-1 career record despite modest stuff. And Matt Harvey's last long start in the ACC tournament was his best start of the year. I think it's safe to say on paper, North Carolina's starting pitching is better than Miami's. But that's just on paper. Miami's lineup is better and Jim Morris has two national titles. These are two great teams; you have to make a pick, though, I made mine and hope I gave you reasons for my pick.

John Manuel: It wasn't a mediocre conference, it was a bad conference. The Big Ten was down by its own standards this year, and that is what contributed to Phegley being left off. Kemp was the Conference USA player of the year, and Castro is solid defensively and put up excellent numbers considering the quality of his competition in the Pac-10. Phegley was in the mix but we just thought the other guys deserved it more. I do love to see a former intern get in on the chat though.

John Manuel: Pete, I'll admit I'm out of the loop on the first part but wanted to comment on the second part of your question, if you'll indulge me. Coach Polk has made this about him. He can say what he wants about wanting to stick up for Tommy Raffo and the other coaches there and seeing the tears in their wives' eyes and all that, but he made himself the story here, put himself above Coach Raffo and Coach Cohen and most of all Mississippi State. I think that's not what a coach is supposed to do. Moreover, a coach and a teacher who is a role model like Ron Polk should know better than to throw a public tantrum when he doesn't get what he wants, and that's what it was, a tantrum. What I've read is a bit calmer maybe but only slightly less strident. What coach Polk probably doesn't realize is this is probably one huge reason why Mississippi State hired John Cohen. It's time to move on past Ron Polk. He brings a lot of great things with him but a lot of negatives to the table as well. If I were AD of Miss. State, I would know more about the contributions he's made to the university, but I also would probably see how his negatives, his constant "warpath" he's on with the NCAA, doesn't serve that university, its athletic department or its baseball team. It's a shame that coach Polk has added another negative to his legacy, because his initial reaction kind of makes any subsequent softening of his stance seem less than sincere.

John Manuel: Probably 50 or so, in theory anyway, but you hit on it — I wonder if Fresno would even be in OMaha with him. It seems like they rallied after everyone else assumed they were toast. These crazy things happen in athletics, it's one reason why we watch.

John Manuel: Real quick, I'll say (a) bats got hot, (b) pitching rotation coalesced and became more consistent, (c) team's athleticism started to evince itself defensively. Then over here you've got luck. You have to be lucky to win 23 in a row — sounds like LSU got some calls against New Orleans in the regional [Editor's note: the game in question was at the end of the regular season. UNO and LSU did not play in regionals], for example. But they are playing with so much confidence. I'm excited to see the LSU fans with their beads back out there in Omaha, and hope for a Big Ragoo and his Krewe sighting, if he's still with us.

John Manuel: Thanks for coming, fun to do a college chat. We'll be back with more chats and podcast fun from Omaha all weekend and Aaron will be here for the whole near-fortnight. Talk to you later.