| Q: | Andrew from Irvington, NY asks: Aaron Crow this weekend — merely human or aberration? |
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Aaron Fitt: Hello everyone. Quite a weekend in college baseball — I can't remember so many notable individual performances at one time. Not only did you have Strasburg striking out 23 and Jacob Priday hitting four homers, but New Mexico's Brian Cavazos-Galvez hit four on Saturday. Check back later this week for more on the Lobos. Aaron Fitt: As for Crow, first of all, he is human, and his incredible streak was not going to last forever. But those conditions could not have been any worse, with a 30 mph wind gusting out to center field (see Three Strikes for details), and he at least recovered after those first two innings to last five and pick up the win. One thing to keep an eye on, though, is that Texas had a great plan against Crow, taking a two-strike approach on every pitch and shortening up early in the count. We'll see if more teams start doing that against him. |
| Q: | Jay from Charlottesville asks: UVa swept Maryland on the road this weekend and doesn't move back into the top 25. Last year, the Cavs were #5 in the country when they stood at 29-7. This year, at 29-9, they aren't even in the Top 25. What else does UVa need to do? |
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Aaron Fitt: Last year at this time, Virginia had won series against North Carolina (on the road) and Miami. This year, the Cavs have won series against Lehigh, Boston College, Virginia Tech and Maryland. They've lost road series to NC State, Duke and Florida State. I want to see UVa. beat somebody resembling a regional contender. |
| Q: | Andrew from Athens, GA asks: Simple question: Why does anyone still pitch to Gordon Beckham? |
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Aaron Fitt: You know, it's just harder to pitch around him with Rich Poythress raking in the cleanup spot and Bryce Massanari hitting well behind Poythress. If first base is open and there's nobody else on, in most cases, it's a no-brainer: pitch around Beckham. But otherwise, why give up a base when the next guy could make you pay just as easily? |
| Q: | Lance from Tempe, AZ asks: How in trouble is ASU's bullpen? |
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Aaron Fitt: It's a darn good thing for ASU that Ike Davis is back there, because he's been outstanding, but the rest of those guys are starting to struggle. Rafferty and Dorado were both very bad on Sunday after pitching the previous day, and Seth Blair simply needs to be better. |
| Q: | alex kovaler from moscow, russia asks: aaron, who do you see winning the Big West this year? |
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Aaron Fitt: Right now I think Fullerton is in the best shape, thanks to last weekend. I thought Long Beach could still make a run until this weekend, but the Dirtbags really needed to win that series against UC Irvine at home. The Anteaters are very good, but they're a little behind the eight ball after losing a home series to Fullerton last weekend. UC Davis is the dark horse, of course, and the Aggies are sitting atop the standings right now, but I'll reserve judgment on those guys until they start playing the traditional Big West heavyweights. I do think Davis is in good shape to make a regional, though. |
| Q: | David from Orlando asks: I think everyone at every level of baseball would like to catch a case of the Strasburg flu. If he were going in this year's draft, where would San Diego State's finest slot? In an early scout's view, one of the scouts you quoted, invoked Mark Prior. Is that a valid comparison? |
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Aaron Fitt: I think he'd go in the top five for sure, and maybe as high as No. 1. He's got a better fastball than either Brian Matusz or Aaron Crow, and his slider isn't far behind. He's got a big, durable frame and an easy delivery, so there's no reason to think he'll break down. Matusz and Crow have deeper arsenals, though Strasburg has a decent changeup now and then against lefthanded hitters. Matusz is lefthanded, which gives him a little edge. It's really a tough decision, but I don't think any pitcher in college baseball has a higher ceiling than Strasburg. And considering he already works around 97-99 regularly, he's not too far away from that ceiling. Maybe it's the 23-strikeout game talking, but at this moment, I think I'd take Strasburg before any other pitcher in the draft, and maybe even before Pedro Alvarez. All of that is moot, of course, because he's not eligible until 2009, but he's unquestionably the No. 1 prospect in the '09 draft, for me at least. Kyle Gibson has a ton of upside too, but you've got to project on Gibson's velocity. There's no projection necessary with Strasburg. |
| Q: | Playin' Pepper from The D asks: Eric Thames has been going off lately, how much has his draft stock improved? Could he sneak into the first round this year? |
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Aaron Fitt: I don't think he's a first-rounder, but he's definitely cemented himself as a top-five-rounds guy, and potentially top two or three. He's a gifted athlete, and he's answered the major question scouts had about him by translating his raw power into game power. He's got 10 homers already after hitting none last year. Definitely a fast-riser for the draft. |
| Q: | Jonathan from Charlotte, NC asks: East Carolina's pitching staff seems a little thin once you get past the weekend starters, do you think they have the depth to compete for the C-USA title and possibly finally hosting a regional at Clark-LeClair? |
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Aaron Fitt: It is a little thin, but Sthil Sowers has been awfully good at times, giving them a quality fourth starter, and I like their bullpen, anchored by Josh Ruhlman. They expected much more out of Matt Cox and they planned in the fall for Ryan Wood to pitch as well, and he has not. That leaves them a little short, but I still think it's a strong enough staff for the Pirates to finish second in CUSA and potentially host a regional. That series this weekend against Rice will be tough, but the Pirates are experienced enough (especially in the lineup) to compete at Reckling Park. After that, the schedule opens up, with three home series and a winnable trip to Memphis. |
| Q: | Brian from Seattle asks: Nebraska, A&M and Missouri. Handicap the Big XII race down the stretch (I don't think Texas, OSU or Baylor can catch them). To me, A&M has by far the hardest schedule. Nebraska, Missouri, Baylor and Texas, equivalent of two of those series on the road. Nebraska could put Mizzou in a really tough position if they sweep KU this week, but they've got two pretty tough road series after this (Missouri and Baylor). Missouri has the easiest schedule but 5 losses. And they still have to play in College Station. To me, Nebraska has to be the tentative favorite at this point... They've got the best OVERALL pitching of the bunch, although Missouri obviously has Crow. They also have an easier schedule than A&M and a home series against them. What's your call? |
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Aaron Fitt: I agree with you that Nebraska is probably the tentative favorite because of its 11-3 conference mark and a slightly less grueling schedule than Texas A&M down the stretch, but I think I'll go with Missouri. First of all, I'd dispute your contention that Nebraska has a better overall staff than Missouri — Kyle Gibson and Ian Berger are a fine No. 2 and No. 3, and that's just the tip of the iceberg in Missouri's loaded staff. The Tigers have three series they should win against Oklahoma, Kansas and Kansas State, and they get Nebraska at home. The key might be that series at Texas A&M, but even if Missouri loses that series, I think they might be able to catch the Aggies and Cornhuskers, both of whom have considerably tougher home stretches. Oklahoma State's schedule opens up after this weekend, but I think the Cowboys are probably in too deep of a hole to dig out of at this point. |
| Q: | Steve from LA asks: Even though Michigan only has 8 lossses, how do they continue to remain ranked given their strength of schedule, or lack thereof? |
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Aaron Fitt: Michigan is 45 in the RPI (according to Boyd's World), ahead of Kentucky, Baylor, Tennessee, UCLA, San Diego, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Alabama and Tulane, to name a few big-name schools. The RPI is far from perfect, but it is a very general reflection of strength of schedule. The Wolverines did just sweep a four-game series against the No. 2 team in the Big Ten — you want to drop them out of the rankings after that? Michigan is a very talented team (that's why it was ranked No. 8 in the preseason), and it is now playing up to its talent. |
| Q: | Greg from Los Angeles asks: The UCLA Bruins had one of their best weekends of the season. Do you think the bats have finally woken up and they are back on track with their early season projections? |
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Aaron Fitt: It's only one series, and the jury's still out on the Bruins, but it was an encouraging series. Remember, UCLA caught fire in the second half last year after a brutal start, and maybe this is the beginning of another run — the performance of Gavin Brooks on Sunday was huge, as it seems like Jermaine Curtis and Brandon Crawford are getting going as well, not to mention red-hot Casey Haerther. UCLA needs to keep that momentum going this week against Cal State Northridge, and then it gets Stanford at home next weekend — a pretty good time and place for that series. As for preseason projections, well, UCLA will have to reach Omaha to live up to our expectations and their own expectations, so one sweep against UC Riverside does little to erase that slow start. |
| Q: | Marty from Wilmington, DE asks: Aaron, At the midway point of the regular season, I'm curious what your thoughts are on the compressed schedule. Having more midweek games makes things more exciting for us fans, but I'm curious about the impacts, if any, on pitching, injuries and increased freshman playing time? Thanks |
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Aaron Fitt: There are coaches out there who are glad the compacted schedule has forced them to develop more young players, particularly on the mound. But the majority of coaches I speak with are very concerned about all the missed class time, the risk of injuries to pitchers and the decreased quality of games because of pitching attrition. The low rumbling about decreasing games to 52 or 50 is starting to get louder... |
| Q: | Alex from Fullerton asks: I am liking the consistancy shown by CSUS the last few weeks, but when I look at the Big West standings there is UC Davis at the top. Beat a good UCSB team this week. How good are these guys and are they getting a sniff of the top 25? |
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Aaron Fitt: Davis is a good club — we wrote about them in "Under the Radar" in Weekend Preview a few weeks back, so go back and take a look at that for more on the Aggies. Very solid pitching, with quality arms in Eddie Gamboa, Brad McAtee and closer Justin Fitzgerald. It's also a very well-coached team that has some bats that can hurt you, led by Jake Jefferies, Ty Kelly and Ryan Royster. We did discuss UC Davis in the top 25 meeting today, but the resume isn't quite top 25-worthy. Let's see how the Aggies do the next two weeks against Cal Poly and Fullerton. |
| Q: | John from Texas asks: Why did A&M all of the sudden deserve a ranking? It doesn't seem like they have really improved the quality of their wins with the sweep over OU. |
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Aaron Fitt: It's hard to win 13 games in a row against anybody, and give the Aggies credit for taking care of business and sweeping the three conference opponents they should beat: Kansas, Kansas State and Oklahoma. Texas, for instance, hasn't swept anyone since VCU the first weekend. |
| Q: | Doug from Memphis asks: Aaron - a couple of weeks ago you guys were asked about Bittle at OM - and you guys said he didn't have much upside for the pros. Bittle leads the country in Ks/9inn, throws in the low 90s..and has a cutter in the mid 80s that is unhittable. What do the scouts not like about him? Go Rebs! |
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Aaron Fitt: As I understand it, low 90s is an exaggeration, although his cutter is absolutely outstanding. He's pitched extremely well, he's racking up the strikeouts, and he's definitely improving his stock quite a bit. I look forward to getting a closer look at him next weekend in South Carolina. |
| Q: | james m from bradenton, fl asks: Aaron, play GM for a moment: Ike Davis or Brett Wallace? Buster Posey or Kyle Skipworth? |
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Aaron Fitt: Before the season, I would have said Wallace, but Davis does have more upside, I think, and he has turned the corner and become one of the premier power hitters in the nation this year. So I'll go with Davis, and Posey. |
| Q: | Joe from Easton, MD asks: Pedro Alvarez has looked great since his return from a broken hamate; given his success and the way Vanderbilt played in his absence is this club a legitimate threat to get to Omaha? |
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Aaron Fitt: They're absolutely a threat, but they're going to need more consistent pitching. Caleb Cotham and Nick Christiani were both very good this weekend, so maybe they can solidify that weekend rotation. If that happens, Vandy will be very dangerous, because that lineup is so experienced and very talented. |
| Q: | SekShocker from Kansas asks: Does Wichita State have any shot at being a national seed? I guess I need to know who to root against? Does it make this Tuesday's game v Nebraska even bigger for the winner? |
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Aaron Fitt: I just think that MVC schedule is going to kill their RPI, and thus their shot at a national seed, because the committee heavily weights that particular tool. They've still got series remaining against Southern Illinois (194 RPI), Indiana State (135), Northern Iowa (146), Evansville (274) and Bradley (195). |
| Q: | Matt from Buffalo, NY asks: If Canisius College (26-4, 8-1) makes it to the regionals - do you think they could make some noise and maybe pull an upset or two. Or is their record based on a soft schedule. Thanks |
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Aaron Fitt: First Canisius question in chat history! I had to take this one. The Golden Griffins got a big series sweep over the Marist Red Foxes this weekend and are in the catbird seat in the MAAC. Canisius has already surprised Appalachian State (taking three of four), defending NEC champion Mount St. Mary's (four-game sweep), and defending MAAC champ Le Moyne (two out of three on the road). Those are all great series wins for Canisius, but then, none of those teams will be regional teams in 2008. I think the Griffs are a longshot to win any regional games — but it's a great story nonetheless. Aaron Fitt: That seems like a good spot to stop for today. Thanks for all the questions — I enjoyed today's chat. See you next week. |