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Moderator: Aaron Fitt will answer your questions about the new Baseball America Top 25 as well as any other college questions at 2:30 p.m. ET.
| Q: | Andrew from Athens, GA asks: Gordon Beckham, player of the year? |
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Aaron Fitt: Hello everyone, welcome to another top 25 chat, sponsored by our good friends at DeMarini. Today's Three Strikes deals with this very question, so be sure to check that out. So far, Beckham has been the position player of the year in my mind, though the Wallace & Davis duo at Arizona State is also in the discussion. For pitcher of the year, it's tough to argue with Aaron Crow of Missouri, but Brian Matusz isn't far behind him. Should be a great race, with no clear-cut front-runner, like we had last year with David Price. |
| Q: | Joe from Omaha, NE asks: Nebraska is playing great as a team but my question is do they have any individuals who will be drafted in the top 10 rounds? |
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Aaron Fitt: The guy with the most helium is junior righthander Aaron Pribanic, who is off to a 2-0, 1.44 start. He's got a good 6-foot-4 frame and a quality arm, capable of producing low-90s fastballs. Looks like a good bet for the top 10 rounds. Most of their seniors don't look likely to go that high, though. |
| Q: | David from Orlando asks: Aaron, talk a bit about Ole Miss frosh Drew Pomeranz, please. He got cuffed a bit on Sunday, but before that, he was obscene vs. opposing batters. Could he move into the rotation and dominate? What's his draft potential? |
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Aaron Fitt: He came in with a lot of expectations and has backed them up this spring, throwing 93-95 mph almost every pitch according to the Ole Miss coaching staff. He's also got a curveball that looks like it will be a true above-average offering. He's capable of starting for sure, though he might be more valuable in the bullpen in the short term. It's early, but right now he looks like a very likely first-rounder in 2010, and an early candidate for the top 10 overall picks. |
| Q: | David from Orlando asks: Pepperdine's Eric Thames is off to a good start. Is he moving up the draft boards? Where could he end up going, and is he justifying the Eric Davis comp I read about earlier this year? |
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Aaron Fitt: He is moving up. He needed to follow up his strong 2007 summer in the Northwoods League with a good spring to show that he's more than just a tools guy, and he's doing that so far, batting .390 with four homers. He's a sublime athlete, though I think he's more of a poor man's Eric Davis — Davis' tools don't come around too often. |
| Q: | Mike Miller from Orange asks: The dirtbags are hot... It seems their bats are coming ro life a bit more lately. Do you see them having the bats to get back to Omaha for the first time in 10 years. Also where do you see Liebel going in the draft this year? |
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Aaron Fitt: I do see them as an Omaha team, yes. The big thing is, those guys always seem to get timely hitting from up and down the lineup, and they pitch and defend so well. It's a recipe that reminds me of Oregon State the last couple of years, and Long Beach has that same kind of mental toughness, too. Liebel has really helped his draft stock more than almost any other player this year. He's added velocity to his fastball (he's 90-93 now) and could find himself going as early as the supplemental or second round, especially as a cost-saving senior. One scout even said Liebel is a dead ringer for Ian Kennedy. |
| Q: | David from Orlando asks: How big a surprise has Cameron Rupp been for Texas? How's his defense looking? Could he be a first-rounder in '09? |
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Aaron Fitt: He's gotten a lot more playing time than expected, thanks to Preston Clark's shoulder injury, and he's capitalized to the extreme. We always knew this guy had power—he won the home run derby at the Aflac game in high school—but I didn't think he'd come in and hit .424 as a freshman. Defense isn't his forte, but he's made progress since he was in high school, when his receiving was downright poor. |
| Q: | David from Los Angeles asks: SC's back-to-back shutouts of Arizona have me wondering whether the Trojans can make a run in the Pac-10. What do you think? |
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Aaron Fitt: Sure they can. Heading into the year, I thought there were seven teams capable of making a serious run — everybody except the two Washington schools. Washington State is better than we expected, but still looks short on pitching. USC, though, has plenty of pitching, and it looks like Tommy Milone and Ryan Cook are finally figuring it out. If Brad Boxberger can return to form, they'll have five guys who can give them quality starts, along with Kevin Couture and Anthony Vasquez. That pitching depth will loom large down the stretch. |
| Q: | David from Orlando asks: OK, who will be the better pro player — Hunter Morris or Victor Sanchez? Sanchez's power looks quite a bit better, but Morris is so disciplined at the plate for a freshman. |
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Aaron Fitt: I'll go with Sanchez, because he's got more long-term upside, but you're right, Morris' approach is special. I think it's a terrific freshman class, and that race for freshman of the year should be fun, with Matt Harvey, Kyle Blair, Kentrail Davis and maybe Tommy Toledo and Nick Hernandez. |
| Q: | Marty from Wilmington, DE asks: Aaron, Besides a lone win over Coastal Carolina, what has Michigan done to hold a spot in the poll? I realize their schedule is relatively tough, but losses to Ga. Southern (2 losses each to Columbia and Boston College)and Portland? |
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Aaron Fitt: Michigan and UCLA are the last two teams that are clinging desperately to spots in the top 25 based almost entirely on their rankings in the preseason. We put Michigan on notice two weeks ago, and since then they have done enough to stay in — they only played one game last week and they won it. There isn't much more they could have done. There are other teams (Oklahoma State, UNC Wilmington) that have better on-field resumes, but we're sticking with the Wolverines until they have another bumpy week. |
| Q: | Marty from Wilmington, DE asks: Aaron, Over or under on 5 losses for Arizona State this season? Thanks |
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Aaron Fitt: I'll take the over. |
| Q: | Marty from Wimington asks: Aaron, At 17-4, 9-0 in the CAA, is UNC-Wilmington close to a top 25 berth? |
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Aaron Fitt: Yes, we discussed the Seahawks at length in today's top 25 meeting. There just aren't enough quality wins on the ledger yet — most of those wins have come against Fordham, Towson, Hofstra and William & Mary. The Tribe had been playing well, but it's nowhere near a top 25 team. Really, Coastal Carolina is the only quality win on UNCW's resume, and that's not enough for me. Another win against Coastal and a series win at VCU this week would speak louder for me. |
| Q: | Marty from Wilmington asks: Aaron, Is Duke on your top 25 radar? At 19-5, 4-5 ACC, they have single wins over UNC, Georgia Tech and co-A-10 leader Richmond, as well as a series win over Virginia. Thanks |
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Aaron Fitt: On the radar, but the Blue Devils have lost two of their three conference series, even though they've been competitive. Bottom line is, you need to win more quality series than you lose to be a top 25 team. |
| Q: | Marty from Wilmington asks: Aaron, Of the current top 25, in your opinion, based on remaining schedule, who is most likely to fade down the stretch? Conversely, which team outside the top 25 do you see making a run at some point to join the poll? Thanks |
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Aaron Fitt: Florida's schedule down the stretch is brutal: at Kentucky, Georgia, at South Carolina, at Alabama, Vanderbilt. If the Gators survive that, they will be a regional team for sure, but it's going to be tough. As for other teams, I expect Tulane to make a run to get back into the rankings. |
| Q: | Snapper Bean from Greater Kensington asks: It seems like an awful lot of draft eligible college position players are off to very big starts - Gordon Beckham, Reese Havens, Yonder Alonso, David Cooper, Ike Davis, Brett Wallace, Buster Posey, etc. Is this class as good as it looks or is the new compressed schedule favoring hitters and inflating the numbers? |
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Aaron Fitt: It's a great class, I think. The compacted schedule may be helping a little bit, but there are still plenty of pitchers having exceptional years as well (Crow, Matusz, Hunt, to name three at the top of my board). As the season wears on, you're going to see more and more hitters padding their numbers in midweek games with football scores, but that doesn't mean this class isn't impressive regardless. |
| Q: | Brandon from Omaha asks: With Nebraska and Missouri both going another weekend in the Big 12 without a loss (though there was an unusual tie), they sit atop the conference. Will the title be determined by the end of the year series between the 2 schools and, if so, who wins? |
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Aaron Fitt: I think Missouri will have the league title wrapped up before that. Nebraska's a solid club, but I don't think it's the best or even the second-best team in that league. |
| Q: | Tarheel from Nroth carolina asks: Hi Aaron, If the playoffs were to start today, who would be your 8 national seeds. |
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Aaron Fitt: Taking into consideration only records and strength of schedule, I'd go with Arizona State, Long Beach State, Missouri, Florida State, Miami, North Carolina, Arizona, Vanderbilt. In that order. |
| Q: | Todd from Ft. Sill asks: Steven Hensley of Elon is having a great season and averaging better the 9 Ks a game. What are scouts saying his likely draft position will be? Are there any other prospects on the Phoenix as well for this year or next? Thanks! |
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Aaron Fitt: I think Hensley could be a second rounder, thanks to a quality four-pitch mix that includes a good low-90s fastball. Also keep an eye on Chris Dove, a speed merchant who plays a very good center field and has hit this year as well. His stock is definitely rising. |
| Q: | doug from memphis asks: I'm an Ole Miss fan and I can't believe you still have us ranked...what do you see being the cause of this early season collapse? |
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Aaron Fitt: Early season collapse? Calm down, there. It's a long season, and losing four out of six isn't good, but it's also just six games. The rotation after Lance Lynn has been pretty shaky, but I've gotten good reports on Satterwhite's stuff and feel confident he'll come around. Moving Pomeranz into the Sunday spot might make a lot of sense, because Baker's been very hittable. The Rebels also need to get better production out of their outfield. Jordan Henry seems to be in a little sophomore funk, and the Michaels (Hubbard and Guerrero) have cooled down after their hot start. I think those guys will snap out of it, but if they don't, well, Ole Miss won't be as good in 2008 as I expected. |
| Q: | Luke from Des Moines asks: Wow, Missouri is amazing, even Tepesch is getting in on the action. If the Tigers faced off against Arizona State or Miami's hitting, who would win? |
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Aaron Fitt: Nick Tepesch has really stabilized that bullpen of late—that's a major development for the Tigers. He's got an incredible arm—he really opened some eyes in San Diego at the USD tournament—and could wind up as a top five pick in 2010, but the fact that he's filling a critical role as a freshman is huge. Good pitching still beats good hitting (just ask Arizona State after last year's CWS), and nobody has better pitching than Missouri—not Arizona, not San Diego, nobody. So I'd go with the Tigers. |
| Q: | Richard from Atlanta asks: Hello Aaron, Kentucky travels to South Carolina this weekend. Who ya got and why? |
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Aaron Fitt: Should be a competitive, high-scoring series between two very good offensive clubs. But I like South Carolina to take two out of three at home. The Gamecocks have to be pleased with their starting pitching of late, and really, all season. Cisco, Atwood and Cooper have come out with something to prove, and they're proving it. |
| Q: | Addison from texas asks: if Shaun Kort was 6'2, would he be the best hitting prospect on the west coast for 2009? |
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Aaron Fitt: He's a great hitter, but I wouldn't go that far. Nevada plays in a very offensive park that skews numbers a little bit, making it tougher to get a feel for how good a hitter is. |
| Q: | Fred from Long Beach asks: How would you have UNC ramked ahead of Long Beach? I know it's early but I am always trying to figure out how you rank teams. UNC 4-1 this week losing to 11-11 maryland Long Beach 4-0 sweeping then #11 UCLA. UNC has played one ranked team this season and lost (CCar) Long Beach (rice, wsu, UCLA)all series wins Better yet UNC in the top ten at all? |
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Aaron Fitt: Long Beach has the much, much more impressive resume — for me, it's not even close. And we talked long and hard about jumping LBSU over UNC and Miami, but in the end, poll mechanics won out. We don't generally punish higher ranked teams that won their conference series. There's a reason we had UNC and Miami ranked higher in the preseason, and they've done nothing to make us doubt them. |
| Q: | Luke from Des Moines asks: Who's the top pitcher in the nation—Gorgen, Guilmet, Crow, or other? Also, who's the best closer—Stoffel, Griffin, Fields, other? Thanks. |
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Aaron Fitt: We had a similar question in today's podcast. I went with Crow by a hair over Gorgen and Matusz, although if I had to win one big game I would take Gorgen. For closer, those are all terrific choices, really, but what about Bryan Shaw of Long Beach State? I might take him, with all of those other guys nipping at his heels. |
| Q: | Luke from Des Moines asks: Matt Harvey or Kyle Blair? |
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Aaron Fitt: Harvey, but it's very close. Both are performing extremely well as freshmen, but Harvey has a little bit more long-term professional upside whereas Blair is pretty physically mature already. Both guys will continue to get better, but I think there's more room for Harvey to get better, so I'll give him a miniscule edge. |
| Q: | Aaron from Phoenix asks: This Bittle kid from Ole Miss. Real deal or just a great start? |
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Aaron Fitt: Very good college lefthander, not much professional upside. He's been best option in a Mississippi bullpen that includes plenty of guys with bigger arms. |
| Q: | Mike from Brookline, MA asks: What did you learn about the SEC after this weekend? Auburn beats UK - previously undefeated - Alabama takes it to Vandy, and Flordia sits atop the east. |
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Aaron Fitt: It's all very confusing, isn't it? My gut says Alabama still finishes last in that conference; South Carolina overtakes Florida in the East; Ole Miss rights the ship and holds on to win the West. The East is clearly the better division and could send five or six teams to regionals. I think Auburn and LSU make runs at regionals out of the West. |
| Q: | Luke from Des Moines asks: Should Dominic de la Osa and Kyle Russell have signed? Where will they be drafted this year? Thanks. |
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Aaron Fitt: Lot of good questions from Luke today. To answer your question: yes and yes. Russell, especially, maximized his value last year and would have been better off taking the money while he could get it. The fact is, scouts were very divided on him last year, and now we're seeing why. That's not to say he can't still turn this year around, but he's not going to increase his value from where it was last year, and he'll be very lucky to get back to that point. I think de la Osa is likely to go higher than Russell in this year's draft, let's say third or fourth round if he can get his bat going. Remember, he started slow last year too, but not this slow. |
| Q: | Raymond Linares from Miami asks: What do you think are Miami's cahnces to making it to the world series? Arw they the best team in the ACC? |
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Aaron Fitt: I think the Hurricanes have a very good shot to get back to Omaha. For me, they are easily the best team in the ACC. UNC has more pitching depth, but Miami's frontline pitching has been more consistent, Miami's better defensively, and its lineup is much more dangerous. Florida State's pitching is suspect, in my mind. |
| Q: | Paul from Eugene Oregon asks: The beavers took 2 out of 3 from pepperdine this weekend with garret Nash kevin rhoderick and greg peavey having huge weekends. What are chances of them being top round draft picks in a few years?? Along with josh osich and tanner robles ?? |
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Aaron Fitt: I think all five of those guys have a shot at going in the top two rounds in 2010. Oregon State should be loaded next year as those guys get more experience under their belts. But in the short term, that was a huge series win for the Beavers against a quality Pepperdine team. We'll see if the Beavs can keep it going in conference play... something tells me they'll be a factor. Aaron Fitt: That's all for today, folks. Thanks for the great questions. |