Jim Callis: He wasn't a consideration. He was 27 when he repeated Triple-A last year, so there's not much upside. He's a decent hitter with some speed, but I don't see him having much of a big league career.

Jim Callis: I don't think any team can afford to get too thrifty with the No. 1 pick, and the Padres should have more revenue in 2004. Not that you'll see them spend $10 million on someone, but they should be able to pay the roughly $4 million bonus it would take to sign the No. 1 pick. San Diego has a preference for college players, and my guess is the Padres will opt for a pitcher such as Jeff Niemann or Wade Townsend (both Rice), Jered Weaver (Long Beach State) or Jeremy Sowers (Vanderbilt). Local high school product Matt Bush, a SSRHP, might be pretty tempting as well.

Jim Callis: He's in the 11-20 mix. He got challenged by starting his career in high Class A, where he was just so-so. He's more of a line drive hitter than a power guy, and he needs to improve defensively as a first baseman.

Jim Callis: Reese has stalled since reaching Double-A in the Yankees system, so I don't think the Padres miss him. Castro has to improve his on-base skills and has a weak arm but he could be the club's second baseman of the future if Josh Barfield moves to another position. I'm not a huge Castro fan, but that trade wasn't bad.

Jim Callis: It's early to say that, and to be honest, evaluating knuckleballers is difficult because there just aren't many of them. Bonine isn't a pure knuckleballer like Wakefield. He can touch the low 90s with his fastball and also uses a knuckle-curve. He looks like a great find for a 23rd-round pick in the 2003 draft.

Jim Callis: I wouldn't give up on him, but the Padres made their thoughts clear when they didn't protect him on the 40-man roster this season. Other clubs didn't bite in the major league Rule 5 draft, either. Colitis has set him back, but the bottom line is he has to start hitting like the Padres thought he would when they made him a first-round pick in 2001. With Castro in Triple-A and Barfield in Double-A in 2004, Gautreau probably has to move back to third base, which means he's going to have to provide even more offense.

Jim Callis: Chance? Sure, because they had great success and showed tremendous stuff at times in the minors. But realistically, they've leveled off. Howard's stuff and command fluctuates, and he probably will fit into the bullpen in the long term. Same story with Tankersley, who hasn't been able to put big league hitters away.

Jim Callis: He can, though it's impossible to put a percentage on it. Stauffer had weakness in his shoulder, but his rehab is going well and he has avoided surgery to this point. Yes, it's a huge red flag. But when healthy, he had outstanding life on his fastball, a plus curveball, a plus changeup and a nifty cutter. If he doesn't break down, he could be a No. 2 or 3 starter.

Jim Callis: Next year. He blazed through the minors in 2003, and the Padres would like to sign a stopgap center fielder while Guzman gets some Triple-A seasoning in 2004.

Jim Callis: LHP Rusty Tucker would have made the Top 10 if he wasn't going to miss all or most of 2004 following Tommy John surgery. RHP Jared Wells, a draft-and-follow signed before the 2003 draft, has one of the best arms in the system. RHP Javier Martinez, if he can stay healthy and focused, could shoot way up the list. C George Kottaras is a nice sleeper as well.

Jim Callis: Most of the Fort Wayne players are going to be old for the low Class A Midwest League because the Padres focus on college guys in the draft. RHPs Brian Whitaker and Dale Thayer are two other guys who had good years there in 2003, but they too weren't young for the league. San Diego's system also isn't as strong as it was a couple of years ago, and I think that's also reflected in what you've seen at Fort Wayne.

Jim Callis: Weeks, Barfield, Hairston. Weeks is the best athlete, the best hitter and has the best chance to stay at second base among that group. My next tier would include Freddy Sanchez (Pirates), Jayson Nix (Rockies) and Alberto Callaspo (Angels).

Jim Callis: Hi, John. For one, Pauley was 20 in 2003, significantly younger than Ribas (23) and Whitaker (23). He's a starter, while Thayer (22) and Villatoro (20) are relievers. His stuff is also markedly better than Ribas' (good changeup, otherwise fringy stuff) and better than Whitaker's.

Jim Callis: I think he's going to be a middle reliever. He has a good changeup and good command, but his fastball sits in the upper 80s and his breaking stuff is mediocre. When he went up to high Class A, he got crushed. In my mind, he still has a lot to prove.

Jim Callis: He overmatched younger hitters with a 90-91 mph fastball and a slider. Neither is a solid plus pitch, so we'll have to see how he does at higher levels. He's probably a setup guy at best.

Jim Callis: I just covered Thayer. I like Villatoro better. He's younger and has a better pure arm, with a 92-94 mph fastball and plus slider at times. He also projects as a setup man with a greater likelihood of achieving that status than Thayer.

Jim Callis: I'm not a pitching coach, nor do I play one on TV. Perez certainly has that potential, and I also like Jason Bay and Cory Stewart a lot. But don't underestimate the significant of acquiring Brian Giles, which gave the Padres their best hitter and showed their fans that they're trying to contend again.

Jim Callis: .300-plus average, 40 doubles, 25 homers, 110 RBIs. He's the real deal.

Jim Callis: Greene's hands are a 60 or 65 on the 20-80 scale. His arm is a 50, which is average. With his hands, instincts and first step, the Padres are convinced he'll stay at shortstop. Knott is the best player of the group you mentioned, and the only one who's not limited to first base. But he might be more of a reserve than a big league regular.

Jim Callis: They liked Bartlett, so it wasn't like they didn't appreciate his talents. They apparently liked Brian Buchanan more.

Jim Callis: It's a combination of factors. They promoted a lot of guys to the majors quicker than expected and others weren't as good as they hoped. That's why their talent is thinner than it was a couple of years ago.

Jim Callis: Yes, entirely based on injury. A healthy Stauffer definitely would have ranked ahead of Guzman. I think Guzman can keep his OBP skills. He has some strength, so pitchers have to respect him. He just needs to remember that while chicks dig the longball, the Padres don't when it comes to him.

Jim Callis: I like him, but he was one of the bigger disappointments in the system in 2003. Like Gautreau, he wasn't protected yet went unclaimed in the Rule 5 draft. He came down with a sore elbow and his stuff was down. He was more 88-91 than 90-95, and his curve wasn't as sharp. He needs to get it going again in 2004.

Jim Callis: The last I saw, they were open to Maddux if he told them he wanted to come to San Diego and would take a two-year deal in the $10 million range. He's not about to fall apart, but his days of dominating are long gone. I bet his ERA is in the 4.25 range in 2004.

Jim Callis: He hit .298 in 2003, but that screams fluke to me. He never had hit like that in the past, he still avoided walks like the plague and he didn't show much over-the-fence power. I think he's going to be a big league backup, thanks mainly to his cannon arm.

Jim Callis: They haven't said so, but I don't see how the Padres would have spent the No. 4 overall pick on someone with major questions about his shoulder. As stated a couple of times earlier in this chat, the Padres don't look nearly as good as they did two years ago, when BA rated their system the fourth-best in the game.

Jim Callis: Sorry that took so long, but I'm back. Coonrod very well could be San Diego's closer of the future, though I'd like to see him have a little more success before I'd go far. He does have a great arm and does reach 97, but he needs to refine his secondary pitches and command.

Jim Callis: That's a good comp, because I think he'll be that kind of hitter in terms of average, power and OBP. He's obviously not a SS or as athletic as Nomar, but he's that type of hitter. Good call.

Jim Callis: You're right, they have upgraded their pen. Otsuka hadn't signed when I did the Top 10, and he'll probably fit in at No. 5 for the Prospect Handbook. Rusty Tucker could be a dynamic bullpen lefty if he comes back from Tommy John surgery. Matt Hampton isn't ready yet, so Mike Bynum and his slider might be the best bet for 2004. Chris Oxspring has a better arm, but San Diego will try to bring him along as a starter.

Jim Callis: Yes, I do think he'll keep the job unless he turns into Mario Mendoza. The Padres are so committed to Greene that they chose not to pursue Kazuo Matsui or Nomar Garciaparra. I'm not sure he'll hit much this year, maybe around .250 with 8-10 homers, but can see him becoming a .275 hitter with 12-15 homers and 30-plus doubles in time.

Jim Callis: While I was spending 90 minutes on the phone, the questions have backed up, so we'll go to the lightning round to try to get as many in as possible. I'm with Towers on that one, Furmaniak is a possible utility guy.

Jim Callis: They have a logjam of 1Bcorner OF types, so it will be hard to crack the lineup at those spots. If anyone in the system right now does, it's more likely to be Jon Knott.

Jim Callis: His bat will have to carry him, and will have to develop more power to do so.

Jim Callis: Very good defender but you're jumping the gun. He was 19 this year and hit just .231, so there's a long way to go with the bat.

Jim Callis: He has legit power but has struggled above high Class A and I don't see a clear path for him to make the San Diego lineup.

Jim Callis: I don't think many people in baseball believe he's actually 22. He has some tools but is overaggressive.

Jim Callis: I think they'll be more aggressive going after guys now that they have more revenue to play with. But it's not like they went cheap with either of their last two first-rounders (Khalil Greene, Tim Stauffer) and they spent ton on draft-and-follows in 2003.

Jim Callis: Maybe, but probably not out of spring training.

Jim Callis: I mentioned Villatoro earlier. You're right on Ponce, who has an intriguing arm. He's just 19, with average to plus stuff across the board. He has a long way to go in terms of putting everything together, but the ingredients are there.

Jim Callis: His stuff isn't as good as it was when he was in the Boston system, but he does have the best changeup in the Padres system and pitched great after getting demoted to high Class A.

Jim Callis: Morton has to make a lot more contact than he has previously in his career, and several scouts I've talked to question whether he can make that adjustment.

Jim Callis: Yes, Eddie, you're pegged as a starter for 2004.

Jim Callis: Middle relief, like both of them a little bit but they're not Top 30 guys for me.

Jim Callis: I can't see how he could stick in the majors, so whoever took him would be throwing $25,000 away.

Jim Callis: Sain's shoulder is back to full strength so he'll catch a lot more in 2004. That's his path to the big leagues. And yes, the Padres still see Trzesniak as a possible Javy Lopez (pre-2003 breakout version).

Jim Callis: He's that style of pitcher, and he has more velocity, but Greg Maddux is the state of the art in that mold. Not really fair to compare the two, especially with the questions on Stauffer's shoulder.

Jim Callis: He's on their radar, but he's more of a reserve.

Jim Callis: The Giles trade should work out for both sides. Stewart would be No. 3 on the list if he were still a Padre.

Jim Callis: I'd rank them Germano, Whitaker, Ribas. Ribas doesn't have a better fastball than those other guys. I think his velocity has been overstated.

Jim Callis: He's in the 11-15 mix with one of the best curveballs in the system, probably headed to Fort Wayne.

Jim Callis: Long isn't part of the long-term future, and the Padres remain high on Nady. He struggled as a rookie, but a lot of guys do, and he has one of the best young bats in the organization.

Jim Callis: He's more of an interesting name than a true prospect at this point.

Jim Callis: For average, yes, but not for power. He's not on the Top 30.

Jim Callis: I still see him as a possible batting champion down the road, with at least 15-homer power.

Jim Callis: There are few true No. 1 starters, and I'm not going to put that label on him. He has a 92-94 mph fastball that hit 97 during the spring, his arm action and body are good and his secondary pitches are fine. Easily could make the Top 10 next year.

Jim Callis: I think he could be a good fourth outfielder. He has the range but not the arm or instincts for center field and he doesn't have the true power for the corner. But he has hit and played hard everywhere he's gone and was a nice pickup.