July 25th Jim Callis Chat

Moderator: Executive Editor Jim Callis will begin taking your questions at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Q:	Fabian from NY asks: Has Dioner Navarro's increased production at Double A affected your view on him, and how exactly do you feel about his potential?
A:	Jim Callis: He's a lot easier to take seriously as a prospect now that he's proven himself in Double-A. Not that there was anythign wrong with him holding his own at age 18 in low Class A last year, but it's easier to see him in a better light. He's one of the better catchers in the minors, and he legitimately can be projected as a future starter.

Q:	Jim Goulart from Brewerfan.net asks: Hi Jim. 23-year-old LHP Luis Martinez pitched 6.1 innings of shutout ball in his AAA debut with Indianapolis last night, with only one walk and 6 K’s. If he keeps his walk total down in August, will the Brewers give the Southern League’s strikeout leader a September look-see? He’s in his second option year. Your thoughts on Luis? Thanks.
A:	Jim Callis: It wouldn't be a BA chat without a question from the fine Brewerfan.net website (or without one from Mark Peel or the Sons of Sam Horn, so maybe we'll hear from them shortly). Martinez has emerged in a big way this year, and he has a plus fastball and curveball. He has to be protected on the 40-man roster, so there's no reason not to look at him in September.

Q:	Jack from Skellington, Idaho asks: Thanks for taking my question! Given Dallas McPherson's red-hot hitting, do you think the Angels will move him up to AA anytime soon? Isn't he a bit old for the California League?
A:	Jim Callis: He's 23 and is on fire, so a promotion very well could be in order. He had a back injury earlier this year, so that's probably why the Angels are being so patient. He gets overshadowed by fellow 2001 draftees Casey Kotchman and Jeff Mathis, but McPherson has a strong bat with lots of power, and a cannon of an arm at third base.

Q:	Mark L. Peel from NorthsideBaseball.com asks: Glad to see you back in the saddle again! You gave an update on first round signings recently, highlighting Tampa Bay's top pick Delmon Young; but I wondered if you know the story on a guy who started 2003 as a potential first rounder but slid: Tampa Bay's third rounder, LHP Andrew Miller, who does not seem to have signed yet. Is he headed for college?
A:	Jim Callis: And here's Mark. Now where are the SoSH? I can't see the Devil Rays signing Miller. It's going to take at least $2 million, and Tampa Bay can't even afford to give that to Young (not that it would be enough) as an up-front bonus. I see them signing Young to a major league contract late in the summer, and letting Miller go to the University of North Carolina.

Q:	Josh from Cedar Rapids asks: Why doesn't Joel Hanrahan get any respect from BA? He has been near dominant in all but one start this year and has learned how to PITCH when he doesn't have his best stuff. He has shown when he does have his best stuff that he is unhittable, plus he NEVER misses a start. And what is with all the statements about him being from Iowa, they have a longer high school season than anyone else and play with wood all spring and fall, plus, he isn't even from Iowa, he moved here from somewhere in Florida in High School.
A:	Jim Callis: How do we not respect him? He ranked eighth on our Dodgers prospect list entering the season. Why do you think we dislike Iowa players? We love Brad Nelson, Ryan Sweeney, Jeff Clement, etc. Simmer down there.

Q:	Roderic from NY asks: About how much longer do you think it will be until Robinson Cano is ready to take over 3rd base for the Yanks, and what kind of numbers does he project to put up?
A:	Jim Callis: Whoa there. Don't send Robinson Cano down the Drew Henson road to ruin by rushing him. He's still young (20), but he has yet to play third and he didn't light up high Class A before getting promoted to Double-A. He's at least two more years away, and it's more possible that he'll play second base and move the defensively challenged Alfonso Soriano to the outfield.

Q:	Pender Lee from Paris Lick, TX asks: What has happened to Joe Borchard? Is the root of his problem lost confidence or have teams really begun to exploit his strikeout tendencies?
A:	Jim Callis: It's the latter. Borchard doesn't take enough pitches and chases too many bad ones, and Triple-A and big league pitchers recognize that there's little reason to challenge him by throwing strikes.

Q:	Benji Orthen from Breyers Tower, MA asks: Do people think Matt Riley will now achieve what was predicted for him 3 years ago or is the jury still out on him?
A:	Jim Callis: He's not one of the very best lefties in the minors any longer, but his comeback is one of the better stories in the Orioles farm system in the last couple of years. His stuff has come back pretty well, he's pitching well in Triple-A and he's done some growing up.

Q:	Alex from Detroit asks: What's the contract status of Lastings Milledge? Based on his past performance and outlook, where would he rank in a top 100 prospects list? Thanks.
A:	Jim Callis: The Mets have offered him $1.775 million, the MLB-recommended slot is $1.85 million and Milledge's dad recently told the New York Post how displeased he is with the whole process. I still see him signing rather than going to Manatee (Fla.) CC, but we'll see. Milledge has a lot of tools but there are some questions with his bat, so I can't see putting him on the Top 100 without seeing how he fares as a pro.

Q:	Ben from Montreal asks: Can you talk about the state of the Expos farm system? There seem to be a few good arms (Hinckley, Everts, etc.) and maybe Broadway but that's about it. Is Roger Bernadina on anyone's radar screen?
A:	Jim Callis: It's pretty thin, because they traded off a lot of talent last year trying to contend and haven't received as much when they've had to unload salaries. Larry Broadway is the best batting prospect. Bernadina is young and toolsy, but still quite raw.

Q:	McNally from NY asks: Figuring that the Vladimir Guerrero comparisons are overblown, what do you feel is Rudy Guillen's potential?
A:	Jim Callis: Guillen still needs to figure out the strike zone, but he's a very exciting prospect. Lots of power potential and the speed to steal bases and be a plus in the outfield, not to mention arm strength. He's easily one of the best position prospects in the Yankees system. Lots of Yankees questions today.

Q:	David R. Mark from Maplewood, NJ asks: Hi. Please reassure me that Kevin Youkilis, the Greek God of Walks, will not be the second coming of Jeff Bagwell -- i.e. dealt for some mediocre pitcher of the likes of Larry Andersen ... What might the Sox trade for a starting pitcher? Do you think Jorge De La Rosa can be a factor in the not too distant future? Thanks.
A:	Jim Callis: I can see the Red Sox trading Youkilis, because his market value may never be higher, but GM Theo Epstein has proven to be a savvy trader thus far. Youkilis won't be given away. De la Rosa could be used in a trade as well, because he's one of their more advanced prospects. He has a great arm, and could be used as either a starter or reliever. I think Boston would like to hold onto Freddy Sanchez and Kelly Shoppach, but anyone else could be fair game.

Q:	Sean from Grand Rapids, MI asks: Jim, Shane Loux just can't seem to get any respect. He's only 23 years old and wins games, period. Why doesn't he draw more attention??
A:	Jim Callis: Because he doesn't miss enough bats, and that's more indicative of his future than his win totals.

Q:	Benji Orthen from Breyers Tower, MA asks: The Blue Jays seem to have all sorts of outfield options in the coming years. What do you think the Jays’ outfield will look like in 2005?
A:	Jim Callis: There are a lot of options, and I'll answer a similar question about the Indians in today's Ask BA, due to get finished sometime after this chat ends (plug, plug). For Toronto, Vernon Wells obviously is the center fielder. I like Bobby Kielty, so I'll put him in left and Jayson Werth in right. Current minor leaguers John-Ford Griffin, Gabe Gross and Alexis Rios have their work cut out for them.

Q:	Benji Orthen from Breyers Tower, MA asks: The Mariners also seem to have all sorts of outfield options in the coming years. What do you think the M’s outfield will look like in 2004 and 2005? And who is Greg Jacobs??
A:	Jim Callis: We'll stay on this theme, and yes, I realize I'm answering a lot of Benji's questions, but they're good ones. Ichiro will continue to man right field for the Mariners, and Chris Snelling's bat will win him the left-field job eventually. Mike Cameron will stay in center until he's supplanted by Jamal Strong or Shin-Soo Choo. Greg Jacobs is tearing up the high Class A California League, but he's also 26. He was drafted in the 13th round in 1998 by the Angels as a pitcher, and after the Astros released him last year, he became an outfielder and batted .380 in the independent Western League.

Q:	Scott from San Diego, California asks: Please help settle and argument between a friend and I. Who is having a more impressive 2003 season, Cole Hamels or Zack Greinke? Both have excellent numbers, but while Hamels' surface numbers appear better than Greinke's, Greinke has been pitching at higher classifications of the minors. Greinke played in the Future's game Hamels did not even though Greinke is only 2 months older) and was raved about. Who do you think is having the more impressive year, and if forced to decide, which would you want on your team for the future?
A:	Jim Callis: You can argue either guy for both questions. I think Greinke's season is more impressive because he's done it at a higher level. If I could only pick one, I'd take Greinke, partly because of that, partly because of Hamels' injury history and partly because his pitchability is just so good. And his stuff ain't bad either.

Q:	Andrew from Tucson, Az asks: The Brewers system looks amazing, at least with the hitters. Weeks, Gwynn, Fielder, Kyrnzel, Hardy, Nelson. But where is the pitching? Thanks.
A:	Jim Callis: Scouting director Jack Zduriencik and his staff have found a number of talented players to restock the system, and you'll see them in Milwaukee soon. And there's plenty of pitching. We already discussed Luis Martinez, but how about Mike Jones, Manny Parra and Ben Hendrickson?

Q:	David Malamut from Cougars pitchers asks: The Kane County Cougars have lost four of there starting pitchers that they started the year with. Joe Blanton, Shane Komine and Bill Murphy all went to Midland. Christain Gonzalez went to Modesto along with reliever Chris Shank. Catcher John Baker went to Midland also. Is this just the A's just trying to advance these guys through fast because of payroll or do we have something in these players. The A's have left the Cougars roster with all of three good players now. Frnacis Gomez, Brant Colamarino and Drew Dickinson. Any of the names I have said above, which ones have a chance to make it to the bigs someday.
A:	Jim Callis: A lot of those guys were successful at the top levels of college baseball, so low Class A wasn't much of a test. That doesn't mean I don't like a lot of them. Blanton, Baker and Murphy are the best prospects of that group, and it's hard not to root for Shane Komine. Moving them up was all about finding a challenge for them.

Q:	Stewart Deck from Arlington, MD asks: What has happened to the Orioles’ John Stephens? Did he soft-toss simply not work in the major leagues or did the Orioles not give a young pitcher enough time in the major leagues to hone his craft?
A:	Jim Callis: He pitched better in the majors than his ERA would indicate last year, but he hasn't been given a second chance to show what he can do. Stephens is what he is: he doesn't throw hard, but he knows how to pitch and has been very successful in the minors. I'd give him another look.

Q:	Chris from Pittsburgh asks: Three names (Steve Smyth, Bobby Hill, and Francis Beltran) have been tossed around as the PTBNL in the Pirates-Cubs debacle. Which of these would make the most sense for Pittsburgh to make this trade less painful? Also, do they have any hope of getting value for Brian Giles, given the past two dumps?
A:	Jim Callis: The PTBN situation is one of my questions in today's yet-to-be-completed Ask BA, so you'll have to wait on that one. Giles seems almost certain to be traded, and he should bring value because he's a stud hitter with a very reasonable contract. But based on the deals the Pirates have made recently, it seems their prime objective is dumping salary with little regard for what they get in return.

Q:	Ron D. from Boise, Idaho asks: Right now, who do you think are the top candidates for BA Player of the Year?
A:	Jim Callis: My pick right now would be Zach Greinke, assuming he starts pitching better in Double-A. Other guys in the running would be Prince Fielder, Rich Harden and John VanBenschoten. Most of the top guys for me this year are pitchers.

Q:	nathan from buffalo asks: When will Prince Fielder be promoted?
A:	Jim Callis: He's just 19, so there's no real hurry. Brad Nelson just got promoted to Double-A, however, so Fielder could get a look in high Class A during the final month.

Q:	Seabiscuit from Elmers, PA asks: Jim, Pat yourself on the back. Your long, drawn-out nightmare concerning Ed Rogers is over. Go ahead, it's okay to gloat.....
A:	Jim Callis: Yeah, but you're the focus of a hit movie. I'll take the high road, other than to let this question run. It was never personal with Rogers.

Q:	Wilson Betemit from Greensboro asks: What does my future hold?
A:	Jim Callis: You've lost a lot of your luster recently, Wilson. You're not hitting that much better than you did last year, and your defense still needs work even after the move to third base. If you finish strong, maybe you can replace Vinny Castilla next year. But you need to get going.

Q:	Jay from Madison asks: Wondering why O's 1bmen Mike Huggins gets no love. In your most recent ask BA you said Tripper Johnson was the o's best hitting prospect even though Huggins has better stats across the board and Josh Boyd's column on 1bmen yesterday listed L. Jimenez as someone to watch even though he's putting up awful stats at a lower leve. What gives?
A:	Jim Callis: Huggins is fine and he's having a nice year in high Class A. Tripper Johnson is better, however, and he's two years younger. I'll let you take up Jimenez with Josh during his next chat.

Q:	Benji Orthen from Breyers Tower, MA asks: Would you like to say anything about Frederick’s Omar Rogers (hitting .304)?
A:	Jim Callis: No, I'll leave him alone until the Orioles start comparing him to Alex Rodriguez or Nomar Garciaparra. And something tells me they won't.

Q:	Hap Goyter from Krispy, NC asks: If Casey Kotchman can stay healthy (I realize that’s a BIG “if”) how quickly might he move up?
A:	Jim Callis: That's all that's holding him back. Barring further injuries, he should be in Anaheim's starting lineup at some point in 2005.

Q:	Tim from Washington, DC asks: Jim, I'm interested in hearing your opinions of the slew of college pitchers the Red Sox took in the early rounds of the draft this year (specifically Abe Alvarez, Beau Vaughan, Jon Papelbon, Brian Marshall, and Jessie Corn). Do any of these guys project as frontline starters? Thanks.
A:	Jim Callis: All solid guys with, not surprisingly, good college stats, as the Red Sox are focusing heavily on performance as well as tools. I don't see any of those guys necessarily becoming a No. 1 or 2 starter, though they should move quickly through a thin system, and give the Red Sox some more trading chips to play with. I like Papelbon the best, as he's durable and has a nice fastball-slider combination. Plus saying his name makes my almost 2-year-old daughter laugh.

Moderator: Time for the lightning round, as Jim has roughly 15 minutes before Ask BA beckons him.

Q:	Alan from Oakland asks: What do you think of the seemingly impending Pirates-Padres trade? I've heard two versions: Giles-Kendall-Wells-Cash for Nady-Perez-Jarvis and a simpler Giles-Kendall-Cash for Nady-Lawrence-Jarvis and maybe Bozied. Are the Padres paying too much?
A:	Jim Callis: If I were the Padres, I'd take the first option, which wouldn't be paying too much.

Q:	George from Buffalo asks: out of Joe Borchard, Wilson Betemit, and Drew Henson who has the better future?
A:	Jim Callis: I'll say Betemit, unless you're counting the NFL, in which case I might take Henson.

Q:	Zak from Jersey asks: When do you think we will see Scott Kazmir pitching at Shea?
A:	Jim Callis: Late 2005.

Q:	Stepson of Sam Horn from Hornsville, TX asks: Humberto Quintero is hitting halfway decent in AA Mobile, a tough park in a tough league. Not great, but has his stick improved enough for him to be possible major league material?
A:	Jim Callis: Maybe as a backup, I don't see him as a regular.

Q:	Colin Parker from Kingston, Nova Scotia asks: Ok Jim, You are one of the biggest Juan Cruz fans around. He has pitched well in Iwoa after his demotion at the start of the year. Can Cubs fans excpect Juan to become the front of the line starter that everyone thought he could be or should we start getting used to him being a long man and a 5th or 6th starter ? Thanks keep up the good work.
A:	Jim Callis: I still think he can become an all-star as a starter.

Q:	Tiggy from Motown asks: What is going on with the Tiger's Preston Larrison, although he appeared in the Futures game, his performance this year has been a major disappointment? Do you think Class A farmhands, Joel Zumaya and Jon Connally are legitimate prospects?
A:	Jim Callis: Zumaya is the best prospect of those three guys, Larrison just hasn't thrown as well and isn't in the best shape, and the jury's still out on Connally.

Q:	John from Cincinnati asks: When do you think Kyle Sleeth will sign, and is he a future ace?
A:	Jim Callis: I think he'll sign sometime in August for roughly $3 million, and he can become a No. 1 starter.

Q:	Bill Bryk from San Diego, CA asks: Who is the best long term internal candidate to fill in for Aramis Ramirez? Mike Gulan and Kevin Nicholson are just fillers at the MLB level, they traded Kody Kirkland, so that leaves Jose Bautista (injured) and Yurendell DeCaster (sub-300 OBP). Given the slow track approach of Brian Graham, none of the internal candidates is going to reach Pittsburgh quickly.
A:	Jim Callis: Jose Bautista, by far.

Q:	Trent from Chicago asks: As a Cub fan should I be worried about the shoulder problems Bobby Brownlie is having?
A:	Jim Callis: A little, considering he had arm problems last year as well and that he was sitting in the high 80s most of this season.

Q:	Bill B. from Philly asks: Do you think the Phillies should think about moving C. Hamels up a level? I understand not wanting to rush him, but don't you think he needs to be challenged a little more? Maybe experience getting hit around a little bit? Thanks
A:	Jim Callis: He's young and is making his pro debut, so patience is fine in this case.

Q:	Zak from Jersey asks: What is your take on the negotiations with Milledge and do you think he'll be in Kingsport or Brookyln by the end of the season?
A:	Jim Callis: I think he'll probably sign a 2004 contract, unless he opts for junior college.

Q:	Pete Berryman from Savannah, Georgia asks: Vance Wilson, Jason Phillips, or Justin Huber, which is the best option at catcher for the Mets by 2005?
A:	Jim Callis: Justin Huber.

Q:	Snapper Bean from Greater Kensington asks: Can you explain the role of the Commissioner's office with respect to draft signings? What leverage does the Commissioner's office have if you ignore their slot recommendation? Many teams are paying over slot for guys in later rounds (Astros-Barthmaier, Indians-Laffey, etc.). Then you have my Phillies who didn't even have a first or second round pick and yet can't reach a deal with their 6th, 11th or 18th round picks, let alone sign a flier.
A:	Jim Callis: They can't directly punish everyone, but they expect everyone to stay in line.

Q:	Zak from Jersey asks: After Zack Grienke got killed last night I'm glad to see he is a little normal. Do you think we will see him pitching for the Royals this September?
A:	Jim Callis: No, because there's no reason to put him on the 40-man roster and that would be a big jump.

Q:	Joe from DC asks: Will the Yanks sign Daniel Bard?
A:	Jim Callis: My guess is no, that they learned a lesson with Mark Prior and would have signed Bard already if they could have.

Q:	Ron Day from Chatham, Ontario asks: Jim, we often hear lines such as "Joe Prospect's only 20 years old, so the power will come", but I don't think that that statement is valid for every prospect. Do you feel that power tends to come with increased strength as a player matures, or is power more dependent upon adjustments to swing plane as a player is taught to recognize driveable pitches?
A:	Jim Callis: Both reasons you mention are why power comes later for hitters, and you're right, it's not valid for every prospect.

Q:	Mick from Chicago asks: Peter Gammons seems to really like Aaron Hill with the Blue Jays. Do you see him in your crystal ball tag teaming with Russ Adams in the middle? Adams is really struggling defensively at SS. Thanks.
A:	Jim Callis: I like Hill as well, and I think he's better offensively (more power) and defensively (more of a shortstop) than Adams.

Q:	James Pytlak from Chandler, AZ asks: Jim, the 2003 draft class is shaping up to be one of the best pitching draft classes in recent memory. Would you agree that Justin Jones may have been the steal of the draft? Secondly, what can you tell us about the Dodger's, Edwin Jackson? Thank you and have a nice weekend.
A:	Jim Callis: Yes on Jones (a 2002 pick by the way), and Jackson may be the best young pitching prospect most people haven't heard of. So says Josh Boyd, our prospect maven.

Q:	Andrew from Roanoke, VA asks: Is Victor Diaz, the new Mets prospect, worth getting excited over?
A:	Jim Callis: Good line-drive hitter, still needs a position, won't turn the Mets around by himself.

Q:	Elbooboo from Pasadena asks: What do you think of Booby Jenks since he has come off the DL? Does this seem like the time he will finally get everything together?
A:	Jim Callis: My opinion remains the same: great arm, lacks the control of himself and his pitches to become a good big league starter, more of a setup man for me.

Moderator: That's it for Jim, who says he's sorry he couldn't get to more questions. Look for a new Ask BA later today.