Kevin Goldstein: Hi everyone. Welcome to my third and final Top 10 chat, and the 29th of 30 (John Manuel wraps things up on Wednesday with the Giants). Before I get going, I just want to speak for the whole BA team when I say thank you for the incredible response to this year's Top 10s. The raw traffic at our website, and the response to these chats have been incredible, and we appreciate your support, and promise to continue to bring you the best minor leagues and prospect coverage throughout the year.

Kevin Goldstein: Gosling definitely still has a future in the bigs, and can compete for the five job in spring training. He started to come around in the second half of 2004, finally healthy from offseason shoulder surgery. His ceiling is as a back of the rotation starter. One scout called him a tweener. Not enough power to be a power pitcher, not enough finesse to be a finesse guy.

Kevin Goldstein: Not a good pick at all there in 1999. Myers looks at this point to be an org guy, with an outside chance of making it as a bench player. Arizona left him exposed in the Rule five draft, and nobody bit.

Kevin Goldstein: Gonzalez didn't come too close to the 20, but yes, he is definitely a player who could really shoot up the list. He's as toolsy as it gets in the Arizona system, and just needs repititions, which comes from playing time, which comes from health.

Kevin Goldstein: I would think Drew could be shooting for a starting lineup slot by 2007, being conservative. I don't think it would mean much for Santos. Santos may or may not move to 3rd, and there's no guarantee that Drew wouldn't move to to second base, or even centerfield. I have no concrete update on the negotiations at this point, but I'd bet he's playing for an Arizona minor league affiliate on opening day -- so no more Drew negotations questions!

Kevin Goldstein: Ah, but he DID make the top 10! He's Ramon Pena now, and he's No. 9. He does have tremendous talent, no doubt -- but as I wrote, he's gone from advanced teenager to raw 24 year old. Don't rule out him becoming a power closer.

Kevin Goldstein: An excellent question, and the most common one I've gotten. For the most part, it came down to this. Overall, there's very little different in their offensive projection. I think they'll both hit for average, with Quentin showing more power and Jackson reaching base more. The difference is that Quentin is a plus rightfielder, while Jackson is a subpar (very subpar) left fielder, who probably needs to be moved to first.

Kevin Goldstein: Murphy's prospect status took a dip in '04. His command went downhill, and for the third straight year, he ran out of gas in the second half. He needs to trust his stuff more, and not worry about painting the corners with every pitch. He's fallen behind some other options in AZ.

Kevin Goldstein: Shappi has great control and a great slider, and could move quickly -- but his lack of velocity prevents him from projecting as an top of the rotation starter. Nonetheless, he's a solid prospect.

Kevin Goldstein: So far, so good as he comes back from Tommy John surgery. He's scheduled to return to game action in the second half of 2005, and the track record for TJ's is very good and seemingly getting better every year.

Kevin Goldstein: Well, I put Snyder at No. 6 and left Hill outside the top 10, so there's my answer.

Kevin Goldstein: One scout called Biggs "The toughest S.O.B. you'll ever meet". He has good command of average stuff, and could make it to the bigs on confidence and moxie alone.

Kevin Goldstein: Drew was the best college hitter in the draft, and if he signs, it's a huge draft for the D-backs, who got two other players who at one time or another were considered first-round picks: Jon Zeringue and Garrett Mock.

Kevin Goldstein: Definitely. When he's on, he's nearly unhittable with mid-to-low 90s heat and a big, power breaking ball. The problem is even at 26, he still has control problems due to an inconsistent release point. He definitely took a big step forward in '04 though.

Kevin Goldstein: Fringe . . . maybe. Just lacks the power to be an everyday corner guy.

Kevin Goldstein: Top five? no. They're somewhere in the middle in my mind. But they've taken a huge step forward over the last few years thanks to some excellent drafts.

Kevin Goldstein: Yes -- he's that good. I didn't talk to anyone who disagreed with putting Drew at No. 1 when he signs.

Kevin Goldstein: There's a good chance because of his crazy, ridiculous speed, but he's going to have to become a better hitter, and a more patient hitter, to be an every day player.

Kevin Goldstein: Well, you're not an outfielder anymore, you're a first baseman, so that's that. Carter just ripped in the short-season league and looks like a late round steal early on, but his bat is his only plus tool and Arizona's biggest hope is that he becomes adequate at best at first base.

Kevin Goldstein: Righties Garrett Mock and A.J. Shappi, and maybe tooly CF Jerome Milons in the second half.

Kevin Goldstein: Quite a few really. I've discussed Carter and Gonzalez, but also keep an eye on catcher Orlando Mercado, Jr.

Kevin Goldstein: Probably more of a 4th OF type. Solid tools across the board, but lacks that one outstanding tool to project him as a starter.

Kevin Goldstein: Jackson and Quentin are both slated for Triple-A, sorry. That doesn't mean you won't have some good stuff there, including Top 10 players Jon Zeringue, Jaime D'Antona and Matt Chico. Also Drew could get there quickly after signing.

Kevin Goldstein: New rules beginning this year. Draft is simply worst to first order from now on -- no more AL-NL flip-flop.

Kevin Goldstein: I'm not a scout, nor do I play one on TV. However, based on everybody I've talked to - take Upton.

Kevin Goldstein: That's to be determined. There are days he has closer-worthy stuff, but he's never really closed a game that meant anything yet, so that will be the big test. Bruney's inability to find anything close to a consistent breaking ball limits him to setup status.

Kevin Goldstein: Mock was #11 so pretty darn close there. Ohlendorf was a little lower down. However, his upside is right there with any of them, but his distance FROM that upside is still pretty immense. He might project best as a power reliever, but he'll stay a starter for now to get innings.

Kevin Goldstein: His pure stuff is still as good as anyone in the system. He just needs to get going again.

Kevin Goldstein: This is also one of the most common questions. I have no idea HOW it will happen, but I would bet that on opening day 2006, Carlos Quentin is in right field, and Conor Jackson is at first base.

Kevin Goldstein: Lajara is the name that stands out the most for me from that list. He's still very raw, but he has good RF tools with a strong arm and good power from the left side.

Kevin Goldstein: Many systems are bereft. The Diamondbacks took care addressed this problem pretty strongly in the '04 draft with Mock, Ohlendorf and Shappi.

Kevin Goldstein: Taking over in left field when Gonzalez' contract is up.

Kevin Goldstein: Mixed. I got many varying opinions on Gil, but few of them (very few) were good. There's no doubt that he can pick it and throw it with anyone, but the guy just can't hit enough by any measurement. More than one scout wants to see what he can do on the mound.

Kevin Goldstein: two more solid young catching prospects. Mercado has good catch-and-throw skills, but his bat is a question mark, while Montero has a nice, quick bat but a fringe arm. Neither made the top 30, but there are worse catchers out there.

Kevin Goldstein: If he did, I think his stay would be VERY brief. Most likely opening destiation would be a California League.

Kevin Goldstein: Not a ton of arms, but remember that Acquino is a converted infielder, so he took awhile to develop. His age and ranking in relation to his age is not a knock on the system.

Kevin Goldstein: Mock had a good chance of being a first-round pick before breaking his ankle in his junior year at U. of Houston. He's got a prototypical pitcher's body with a low 90's heavy sinker and a hard breaking ball. I think he'll split time between the d-backs two Class A affiliates in '05

Kevin Goldstein: No and No. Kroeger has the speed to play CF in a pinch, but you wouldn't want him there on an every day basis.

Kevin Goldstein: Chico was the potention to be a No. 3 type if he can harness his stuff better and develop some more consistent secondary offerings. He received a tough lesson in the Texas League, learning that man cannot live on fastball alone.

Kevin Goldstein: Doyle is definitely still a prospects, and could bounce right back into the top 10 w a strong recovery. D'Antona has more raw power than either Jackson or Quentin, but he also has some big holes in his swing and probably lacks the range and footwork to stay at third.

Kevin Goldstein: I don't know who Gooch is, but you should tell him that if he learned how to read, he'd know the answer -- it's right there in the free intro.

Kevin Goldstein: Maybe! He's very raw, but his a plus defender with explosive speed. In a perfect world, he could become a Luis Castillo-type, but he's still a world away from that. Would need to GREATLY refine his approach at the plate to reach that status.

Kevin Goldstein: He's probably headed back to South Bend. He's a remarkable athlete with power potential whould would be the fastest player in most organizations who don't have Marland Williams. Still VERY raw. Boom or bust type guy.

Kevin Goldstein: He's eligible for the list, but fell in the 11-20 range. To repeat the Jim Callis mantro: BUY THE PROSPECT HANDBOOK TO GET THE EXACT RANKINGS! IT'S THE BEST PROSPECT BOOK EVER! BY A MILE! NOT EVEN CLOSE!

Kevin Goldstein: D'Antona needs to do what injuries prevented him from doing in '04 -- prove he can hit at the higher levels. With many thinking he'll move to first, he really needs to become a premier offensive player. Santos has the power and arm to play third if necessary, and the Diamondbacks really believe he's on the verge of a breakout year, as the non-throwing shoulder injury that was taken care of through surgery had been bothering him since he was drafted.

Kevin Goldstein: Lack of overall talent. 1-throught-4 is pretty great, but 6-10 is pretty below average.

Kevin Goldstein: Based on mine and some much more in-depth ones John Manuel had (as documented in a recent edition of Prospect Pulse), Upton would definitely receive strong consideration. He has an incredibly long track record for a high school player.

Kevin Goldstein: He's certainly taken some steps forward over the past couple of years, but many don't see him as more than a bench player or 4A hitter. As good as his numbers are, he has a long swing and an aggresive approach that was completely exploited in the majors.

Kevin Goldstein: This is a funny answer, but . . . I think it might be Sergio Santos. I think he's on the verge of taking a major step forward. A decision based more on where a player is currently ranked: Jerome Milons.

Kevin Goldstein: A good defensive catcher who doesn't hit for much of an average, but has above-average power and plenty of walks. That's a pretty good player, really.

Kevin Goldstein: He does, but it's an outside one. He's more like heading for Tucson and one of the first guys to get the calls for spot starts if needed.

Kevin Goldstein: It's being printed right now! Buy one! Already ordered one? Buy antother!

Kevin Goldstein: Well, with your top picks, a team takes the best players available. Biggest organizational needs are middle infielders and lefties.

Kevin Goldstein: Not much of one. Not enough bat as a first-baseman, and quickly getting buried in the system.

Kevin Goldstein: Bat speed? slow. Work ethic? Has come into question. Power? NOWHERE NEAR that of Howard or McPherson.

Kevin Goldstein: Attrition is normal in any minor league system, and I think expectations are often set way to high. People need to realize that if you take an ENTIRE system and out of it you get one star, a few regulars and a few bench guys in the end, that's really a PRETTY GOOD system.

Kevin Goldstein: I think it's a matter of team's being conservative when it comes to trading unknown commodoties for unknown commodoties. Nobody wants to risk trading a guy who turns out to be a future all-star.

Kevin Goldstein: Well, I'm the writer, so those are my words, and I stand by it. Almost everyone I talked to (Arizona front office folks, tons of scouts, etc.) agreed. Drew has huge upside, if I may sound like Hubie Brown for a moment.

Kevin Goldstein: Yes, VERY close to the top. That's his only big tool, however.

Kevin Goldstein: In the 20s. Both of them.

Kevin Goldstein: I don't think Hill and Snyder will split time this year. Arizona doesn't want to go with two rooks behind the plate, so Snyder and Hill will battle for the starters job in spring training with Kelly Stinnett backing up and the loser heading to Triple-A. Hill is a good contact hitter with developing power, but he could use a more patient approach and his defense still lags behind.

Kevin Goldstein: Based on my discussions with scouts outside the organization, NOBODY like him in left field. Literally, nobody. Looking over my notes on Jackson's defense, I find the words akward, messy, and goofy. That's not good.

Kevin Goldstein: Frazier was one of the few 20-20 guys in the minors last year, so add him to the list (with Milons and the always frustrating Reggie Abercrombie) of tooly outfielders.

Kevin Goldstein: Sosa is the far better prospect, a Cuban who was originally scouted in a Miami backyard. Big physical guy, good power, good third baseman -- a name to watch at South Bend this year.

Kevin Goldstein: He has a chance to earn a mop-up job in spring training, but more likely will go to Tucson to get back on track. Still has a good future.

Kevin Goldstein: Not in the top 20, or the top 30. Now go buy another copy of the book -- just in case you misplace one.

Kevin Goldstein: Again, I think Jackson and Quentin's offensive upsides are almost identical. When I grilled the D-backs on the issue, they insisted there are no current plans to move him off left at this time. But again, nobody thinks he can stay there.

Kevin Goldstein: Low and getting lower every day. His performance in the California League was encouraging on some levels, but the big problem (BBK ratio) remained.

Kevin Goldstein: Nobody in the system gained more ground as a prosect that Gonzalez last year, who really blossomed with a move to the rotation. He's a little undersized, but he has bigtime velocity and is a tremendous athlete. Doulbe-A will be the big test.

Kevin Goldstein: I think both will see a September look at the very least. If Gonzalez isn't ready to start the season, you might get a brief early look at one of them.

Kevin Goldstein: See, if it was Teenager Of The Year, it would be #1. But it's not so probably in the 4-6 range. You owe me an email Doug.