Alan Matthews: Hello, and welcome to another rendition of BA's Top Prospects chat. Everyone around these parts is wrapped up in tonight's Duke, North Carolina game but prospects are always first priority in my mind, so let's get to it.

Alan Matthews: The Dodgers seemed good news on Miller. He had surgery approximately two weeks ago on his shoulder. Why is that good? Because finally a concrete ailment was discovered and Miller had his shoulder scoped to clean it up, hopefully, once and for all. He should begin playing catch in spring training and could be back in a minor league game by June.

Alan Matthews: Dunlap was on the outside looking in, but keep in mind how deep the organization is. He has a ceiling as a .300 big league hitter with 30 homer potential. That is the best-case scenario, though he showed signs as a rookie of having a real advanced approach at the plate and some pop, as well. He will be asked to play everyday in the South Atlantic League this season, a tasking assigment, for any player, much less on in his first full season.

Alan Matthews: While none of these players have enjoyed success recently, I would not go so far as to call them all flops. Chen's inability to adjust to premium pitching has been frustrating and his ceiling appears to be as an extra outfielder at this point. Kuo and Pilkington are in camp early, working with pitching coordinator Rick Honeycutt and has excellent control and a cerebral approach to pitching, which mean he could still surface as a prospect if he can recover from shoulder injuries. Figueroa is an enigma. He was arguably th ebest pitcher in the minors for the final month of the 2002 season and is he can rediscover a consistent arm slot, he has a shot to re-surface, as well, though he did not prosper this offseason in Venezuela.

Alan Matthews: I would have to say that yes, L.A.'s system is deeper than any other. It ranked second in our talent rankings, behind Anaheim, but only because of the remarkable impact talent the Angels boast at the top of their prospect rankings. This is a system that has been greatly improved in recent years by scouting director Logan White as well as international head Rene Fransisco and former advisor Don Welke.

Alan Matthews: Repko has really persevered and is coming off his finest season after going in the first round in 1999. He is the organization's best outfielder and could contribute in a part-time role as soon as this season in L.A.

Alan Matthews: Of course, Yhency Brazobon made an impact last season as he filled in for the traded Guillermo Mota and helped the Dodgers win the division. He will be a big part of the bullpen once again this season. Edwin Jackson could factor on the staff as well, and might even break camp with the Dodgers with a strong spring.

Alan Matthews: Indeed, Tiffany has potential to pitch at the top of a rotation in the big leagues. He needs to tighten his control and maintain his arm angle--when he drop dowm, balls tend to get elevated and he can give up some homers--things easily correctable. He reminds me a touch of a Barry Zito, if not for his stuff for his "unique" personality.

Alan Matthews: Keep in mind the Pioneer League was heavy with prospcts this season, and also an older league, as many teams were sending four-year college players there while Elbert was straight out of high school, and in Missouri no less. That said, he does have a tendency to cut all his pitches. He gets outside the ball a little too often and needs to sharpen that aspect of his game to remain a starter. With his arm and life in the zone, I don't think it would be a failure if he wound up closing, and he has the mentality for that role, as well.

Alan Matthews: Gonzalez comps are thrown out a lot, and Guzman has a chance to be an MVP-caliber player, like Gonzalez once was in the 90s. Pimentel ranked in the 11-20 range while Rivera fell in the final 10. Both players are relatively raw, but Pimentel is especially intriguing because of a live arm.

Alan Matthews: The Dodgers signed Rivera as a 16-year-old in 2003 but he didn't make his professional debut until last summer because of a broken hand. He hit safely in 11 of his first 27 professional at-bats and Rookie-level Gulf Coast League observers compared Rivera to Tony Fernandez because of his pure shortstop actions and live, though undersized, body.

Alan Matthews: When the Dodgers acquired Navarro from the Diamondbacks, Derek Thompson was bumped out of the top 30. He has significant concerns with chronic knee problems but has a great arm from the left side. Also, Julio Castillo, a young Latin righthander was on the cusp. He could pitch in the Sally League after an impressive stint in the Dominican Summer League last year. Travis Denker, who draws comparisons to Marcus Giles, was also close to making the cut.

Alan Matthews: Well, as you know from reading our coverage of every system, the Yankees inability to develop and acquire impact players precluded them from making deadline deals last season. Navarro also regressed in 2004 after ranking atop the Yankees list entering the season. He did rank in the 11-15 range in the Dodgers system but keep in mind the drastic differnce in the level of talent in the two systems, as the Dodgers are exceptionally deep.

Alan Matthews: I see him in right field in the future. But keep in mind that Guzman is not a bad shortstop, and he will probably spend much of 2005 up the middle. It's simply a matter of him out-growing the position because of his projected size. He could be in the running for the Minor Lague Player of the Year in 2005 in the Dodgers keep him in the minors all season. With his plate coverage, hands and now pitch recognition catching up, we're talking .310-30-90 possibly for a shortstop.

Alan Matthews: Billingsley needs to improve his command before we start talking about the big leagues. He walked far too many hitters last season and needs at least another full season in the minors. He could challenge for a spot in L.A. by September 2006.

Alan Matthews: Yeah, some scouts are beginning to wonder when the power translates. He has great eye-hand coordinatioin and good bat control, but has shown over-the-fence pop only occasionaly. Keep in mind that he has had nagging injuries and that has not helped his cause. Also, depending on what team he's on, you don't necessarily need 30 home runs from him. If he develops along with Guzman and LaRoche, those guys are going to combine for upwards of 80 annualy, so thay pick up the slack for Loney, who can concentrate on his strengths--driving the ball to all fields and bringing in runs in the process.

Alan Matthews: It sounds like Valentin and Antonio Perez will be asked to fill the void left by Adrian Beltre and Guzman could be an option as an Opening Day third baseman in 2006. Keep in mind that Adam LaRoche and Blake DeWitt are also premium hitters who play third base .

Alan Matthews: Chin-Lung Hu and the aformentioned Julio Pimentel are two guys who were on the cusp of the top 10 who have considerable ceilings. Hu has a great glove and can really pick it, but also pleased many scouts with his pop at the plate. Pimentel dominated at times last year at Columbus when he got his breaking ball over for strikes, like the 16-strikeout, seven-inning outing in June versus Rome. His fastball has been clocked as high as 94 mph and sat near 90 with boring action.

Alan Matthews: I believe all four--Billingsley, Jackson, Miller and Broxton--are all guys who have a chance to be starters. The top three could pitch atop a rotation, though it's unclear how Miler will recover from significant arm troubles, while Broxton is probably a middle-of-the-rotation guy down the road, or possible a closer. All could be in the mix together in L.A. in 2007.

Alan Matthews: Well, Mauer separates himself from a lot of young catchers on multiple fronts. Martin has only been catching for 2-plus seasons and while he showed exceptional improvement last season, he has not mastered game-calling and needs to better focus behind the plate. His offense will never be what Mauer's should be. His swing can get long at times.

Alan Matthews: It's easy to look at certain draft philosophies and categorize them as "high school" or "college". What White has seemed to do in his tenure with the Dodgers is take the best available players, irregardless of background. In recent drafts, many clubs have passed high-celing high school guys because of their concern with risk, and that has made them available to the Dodgers and other teams, such as Milwaukee and the Twins, to take them in later rounds. Orenduff had an amazing summer with Team USA in 2003 and was there for LA in the supplemental first round last year, so it was an easy call for the scouting staff.

Alan Matthews: It's not only possible, it's likely.

Alan Matthews: Well, Miller and Megrew had offseason surgery and will not be pitching with Jacksonville. Megrew had TJ and will not pitch at all next year, while Miller could join Class A Vero Beach in June, at best. But Broxton and Billingsley should head up a nice rotation nonetheless.

Alan Matthews: Pimentel was ranked in the top 15 and Perez did not qualify based on major league service.

Alan Matthews: I think Tiffany and Elbert might have a slight edge on Megrew, though he would have fallen somewhere in the 9-13 range.

Alan Matthews: Well, Navarro did not rank in the top 10, but yes, that copy was published prior to the deal. Long term, I still like Martin over Navarro, though Navarro is more developed and seasoned as a catcher and should contend for a backup-platoon role in the majors this season.

Alan Matthews: We have addressed the injury status of these two players and BA editor John Manuel just got off the phone with Greg himself. Look for a story on Miller online at BA.com later this week.

Alan Matthews: I don't think Orenduff has the ceiling of a Billingsley, though he should be much better this season than what we saw out of him last summer, when he was likely worn down from a long season with VCU. Also, the organization made some changes in minor league instructors and will likely adopt a slightly less agressive approach to moving players up, in light of the recent injuries to Miller, Megrew and Jose Diaz.

Alan Matthews: A Garner inquiry . . . Go Trojans! The Dodgers like Ross, and he had a great close to the season last summer. But he's one of those "upside down" guys, who throws left and hits right, which makes it tough to slot him in a lineup, especially with lofty strikeout totals.He's a good defensive player,though not as good as Repko. Ross needs to learn to be more selective at the plate.

Alan Matthews: I like Guerra out of this group the best. He has a live arm and George Culver, the Rookie-level GCL pithcing coach worked with him on ironing out a hop in his delivery last year after Guerra signed. He had a smooth release and live stuff when all was said and done. He should start the season in low Class A Columbus this season. Hoffman is a hard nosed, physically strong kid. Former advisor Jeff Schugel spotted him in Canada and the Dodgers signed him for $150,000. He too, could play in Columbus this season.

Alan Matthews: Young comapres to D'backs' second baseman Scott Hairston in that he is an offensive-minded second baseman. Though Young's speed and agility are below average, he did improve steadily at second base throughout the season. Some observers believe he might be able to stick there, but if he doesn't he should offer enough offense to play on an outfield corner. His best tool is his bat, however, and he could be a middle-of-the-order run producer in the big leagues.

Alan Matthews: I like Denker. He's a real gamer and showed a proclivity for driving balls into both alleys last season at Ogden. May is a simialr player in that his best tool is his bat. He broke his hamate bone last season but should recover and both guys are worth watching as potential utility men down the road.

Alan Matthews: Abreu's ceiling is higher than that of Repko's at this stage, though Repko is much more polished, being a first round pick in 1999. Abreu's glove is slightly ahead of his bat at this stage. He has good range, aided by good first-step quickness, and soft hands. One player development staff member summarized Abreu's approach, "he wants to hit so bad he's insulted to take a walk." He needs to be more selective but makes consistent, solid contact and drives balls all over the field, especially when he finishes his stroke and gets extended, which he does well, especially from the left side.

Alan Matthews: Paul is patient, to a fault, at the plate. Last year, he often found himself behind in counts as he waited for his pitch, but too frequently failed to make contact in two-strike counts. Paul is adequate at best in the outfield. He is an above-average runner with well above-average arm strength but doesn't make good reads and needs to improve his routes. He could repeat low Class A in 2005 depending on his showing this spring, but should see some time at high Class A Vero Beach sometime during the season.

Alan Matthews: Matt Kemp is receiving mad love, c;mon, at least from me. He ranks in the top 30 for the first time since he was drafted in 2002. He's very raw, but has an impressive tool set and is beginning to incorporate a usability of those tools.

Alan Matthews: We've already discussed Denker, but he is an interesting player who is most likely a utility guy in the future for a contending major league team. He is a below-average runner, has above-average arm strength, his hands are average and his range is average. He has to learn to play the position.

Alan Matthews: In an earlier question, I may have stated that Miller had TJ, but of course, Greg Miller's arm troubles have been centered in his shoulder. I meant to say that Megrew had Tommy John surgery, at the close of last season.

Alan Matthews: Megrew, who strained a ligament in his elbow late in his rookie season in 2002, broke down after being pushed to high Class A following two Rookie-level stints. He tweaked his elbow in July, missed a start, but finished the year and even tossed seven, no-hit innings in late August opposite Brevard County, most likely doing so with a strained ligament. Megrew relies on good command and a deceptive circle changeup. He would benefit from adding 20-30 pounds to his frail frame. He should begin throwing off a mound by instructional league in 2005.

Alan Matthews: Yes, Dunlap falls in that 11-20 range. He has a good understanding of the strike zone at an early age.

Alan Matthews: Elbert fell in the 11-20 range. He has a live, loose arm and was considered the best prep lefty in the draft last year. With work on his secondary stuff, he could be a No. 2 or No. 3 starter.

Alan Matthews: Well, looking at the deal the Dodgers made, getting Navarro and three righthanders from Arizona for Green, against the deal they did not make, Eric Duncan and surplus arms for Green and Brazoban, I liked this trade. They had a hole at catcher after shipping Paul Lo Duca to Florida in July and Navarro has a plus throwing arm, and can step in and catch in the majors this season. The money saved on Green's contract (although they sent cash to Arizona for a portion od Green's contract) allowed them to sign Derek Lowe, as well. Navarro is somewhere in the top 20.

Alan Matthews: The Dodgers shifted Aybat from third base to second base where his power numbers play better. He is a good athlete and made the adjustments at second base well, though I see him as an extra infielder on a contending big league team. He is ranked in this year's Top 30.

Alan Matthews: My hunch is that May moves to second base where his tools play better.

Alan Matthews: Loney is still the better prospect but in should be interesting to see how the two develop in the future. Loney will probably hold down first abse in Double-A again this season while Dunlap is slated to start at low Class A.

Alan Matthews: Well, the Dodgers do not have a first round pick this year because of the signing of Class A Free Agent Derek Lowe, so some of the premium talent will already have been snapped up. The draft has good depth, both in high school and college players so there will be talent available, nonetheless.

Alan Matthews: Well, other than the first two letters of their names, I don't see too many comps between Hanrahan, a power righthander and Halama. But Hanrahan reported early to spring training this season and reports indicate he is in excellent shape. I think he takes a step forward this season and challenges for a spot in the big leagues if there are injuries to other arms.

Alan Matthews: Ryan Ketchner, a leftahnder whom the Dodgers acquired from the Mariners last year, just missed the cut. He has a nice feel for pitching but was left off the list because he doesn't possess a plus offering and he had ulnar nerve transplant surgery last fall.

Alan Matthews: On the contrary, their foreign signs have been solid of late. Look out for Jesus Castillo, a righthander who had a nice season in the Rookie-level DSL last summer and Mario Alvarez, a converted third baseman who touches 95 mph off the bump.

Alan Matthews: I was wondering if I was going to receive any Carvajal questions . . . The RHP the Dodgers lost in the Rule 5 Draft this offseason has a chance to be a special prospect. He was bought from the Brewers by the Rockies and should make some noise next season in the CAL league.

Alan Matthews: If you combine the number of at-bats Perez had in 2003 with Tampa Bay with the a-bs he had last season with the Dodgers, he eclipsed 130 which is the max number allowed to qualify for prospect lists by BA standards. Brazoban did qualify and fell in the 11-20 range.

Alan Matthews: Aybar had a nice season at Double-A and he is still young, as he signed as a 17-year-old. Abercrombie was traded to Arizona last July and Hanrahan struggled at a hitter's haven, Las Vegas.

Alan Matthews: I think it's easy to say that Broxton is headed to the pen based on his size and repertoire. The Dodgers plan to develop him as a starter and as long as he continues to stay in shape, there's no reason to think he can not contribute in th ebig leagues as a starter by 2007.

Alan Matthews: I do not believe he will be a "flop." The organization changed his mechaincs and he never looked comfortable last season. He lost his balance over the mound. It looked like Edwin was dragging his arm through and not collapsing at the wasit the same way he was when he soared up the prospect charts in 2003. He is still young and has only been pitching full-time since 2002, so let's not give up on him just yet.

Alan Matthews: The 2008 lineup could look something like this:
2b Tony Abreu
C Russ Martin
RF Joel Guzman
LF J.D. Drew
3b Andy LaRoche
CF Milton Bradley
1b James Loney
SS Cesar Izturis

Alan Matthews: Thanks for stopping by the chat room today. Check back for the expanded Prospects Plus story on Greg Miller by prospect maven John Manuel and please name your next born "Felix," for all of us here at BA.