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Reds Chat with John Manuel

Moderator: John will begin taking your Reds questions at 2 p.m. ET

 Q:  Browning Nagle from Louisville, KY asks:
John, what is your gut feeling on Joey Votto, will he be a starting first baseman eventually or more of a super-sub type guy? What numbers do you envision for him down the line?
 A: 

John Manuel: OK, sorry for the delay, but we do have a magazine to put out here.

John Manuel: Votto is intriguing; I don't think he's a 30-homer guy in the big leagues, but the tools, the swing, the plate discipline, it all looks like a guy who can hit for a high average, draw a lot of walks and hit 20 homers a year. Is that a starter on a championship team? It frankly sounds like the Sean Casey profile in a lot of ways. If Casey gets too pricey, Votto should turn out to be a viable replacement.

 Q:  Greg Pirkl from Seattle, WA asks:
Do you think Edwin Encarnacion has ability to be a top line 3B? Who would you compare his skill set to at the major league level?
 A: 

John Manuel: I do. Scouts from other organizations who saw Encarnacion in winter ball consider him a .280-.340-.480 type of hitter, and the Reds of coure like him quite a bit, maybe better than that. That's above-average for a big league 3b, and he certainly has the tools to be a good defender at the position. That kind of production is hard to find at 3B these days. Sounds like an Aaron Boone-type.

 Q:  princeton from princeton asks:
Some good princeton players in the farm system, but let me ask a different question: the Reds have had some success with little righthanded pitchers (Graves, Brantley, Riedling). Does Carlos Guevara stand any chance at continuing this tradition?
 A: 

John Manuel: Guevara is interesting; he'll make the book (it's almost done! really!) because he's got an out pitch, a screwball. It's a hard pitch to find and it's not exactly common, and that's one reason why he ranked among the minor league leaders with 14+ K's per nine IP. His other stuff is average if not fringy, but screwball pitchers aren't typical, and I think Guevara has a chance to be a nice middle reliever. The Reds have lots of depth at middle reliever, which is better than having no depth, but you'd rather have depth at, say, starting pitcher, or shortstop, or power-hitting third basemen.

 Q:  Jon from Oregon asks:
Is Jared Sanders a legitimate prospect? He sure looked good this summer.
 A: 

John Manuel: He's going to have to do it again, but he commands an average fastball; fastball command usually translates to success at lower levels against inexperienced hitters. He's going to have to do more as he moves up.

 Q:  Erick from Columbus asks:
John, If he hadn't been traded, would Dustin Moseley rank as the Reds fourth-best prospect between Gardner and Votto? Thanks.
 A: 

John Manuel: No, closer to the end of the top 10. His upside isn't too great, doesn't compare to Szymanski or Paul, IMO. He's fairly polished and readay to be a fifth starter, but I don't see the upside justifying such a high rank.

 Q:  Joshua Heines from Trenton, NJ asks:
Homer Bailey is an 18 year old with a 92-97 mph fastball with movement, a 12-6 curve and incredible make-up. He's also projectible and looks to add a few more mph to his fastball. To what current MLB pitcher does he compare? Sounds a little like Ben Sheets to me.
 A: 

John Manuel: Sheets is fair; I think sometimes people forget just how athletic some pitchers are, and Sheets' athleticism is a key to his command. Having a 260-30 K-BB ratio is hard to imagine Bailey doing that, but I like Homer quite a bit. It's hard to rank a prep pitcher as the No. 1 prospect in an organization when he hasn't even pitched in a full-season league yet, but that's the kind of upside scouts say that Bailey has.

 Q:  Doc Scott from reds.mostvaluablenetwork.com asks:
I see you just named Chris Dickerson the best defensive outfielder in the system. He's done an excellent job of getting on base professionally so far, and has speed to boot. Listed at six-foot-four and 212 pounds, does he not seem like a candidate for a major power (and prospect ranking) breakout?
 A: 

John Manuel: Good assumption. Dickerson's swing and approach right now are tailored more for getting on base and making consistent contact. That makes sense now, because the goal is not to hit homers in the minors, but to hit them in the majors. The problem is, scouts want to see Dickerson drive the ball more consistently to project that power. As Dickerson gains more confidence and experience, I do see him hitting for more power, but I don't know that power will ever be the best part of his game.

 Q:  Erick from Columbus, OH asks:
Good afternoon, I'm assuming that only the top three guys on the Reds list (Bailey, Encarnacion & Gardner) have a shot at making BA's top 100 prospect list. Safe assumption? Thanks.
 A: 

John Manuel: That's a safe assumption. I like Votto but don't see him as a Top 100 kind of guy at this point.

 Q:  Doc Scott from reds.mostvaluablenetwork.com asks:
Will Miguel Perez ever learn to hit? You don't seem to think so, because he didn't make your Top 10.
 A: 

John Manuel: If I knew that, I'd be working for a club, not writing at BA. Scouts who have seen Perez are not sure if he will hit enough to start, and by "enough," we're talking .260 with 10 homers. Maybe he hits like Mike Matheny and the Reds have enough offense elsewhere that they can carry that kind of an out machine. I do know the club is very high on his defense and that he's a relatively safe bet to reach the big leagues, but I decided I wanted to see more out of his bat before I ranked him too high.

 Q:  Josh from Phoenix asks:
Elizardo Ramirez and Bubba Nelson were both listed as BA Top 10 prospects for their former teams last year, and neither player is a part of the current Reds BA Top 10 list. Does this have to do with each player's performance in 2004, the depth of the Reds organization or perhaps a little bit of both?
 A: 

John Manuel: Ramirez came quite close to making the top 10, and it was more a matter of having a hard time seeing his ceiling as more than that of a 4th or 5th starter. Those are hard to find, but Pelland and Janish have more upside. Nelson didn't come close to making the Top 10 for me; our reports on his 2004 stuff were not good. He wasn't the same pitcher, and getting his confidence back is going to be difficult.

 Q:  Ron from South Bend, IN asks:
You mentioned that it seemed the Reds farm system had made strides, but is it still among the worst in baseball? Also how do you see Janish as he moves along? Will the Reds convert him into a pitcher or does he stay at short?
 A: 

John Manuel: One area in which the organization made strides, if I wrote that correctly, was in getting a consistent philosophy and getting everyone in the organization on the same page. That's how it appears from here. I don't think the Reds system is in the top half of baseball, certainly, but I also think it's comparable to, say, the Astros and is better than the Cardinals, just to pick two teams in the division. It's in the bottom third, but there is some hope; I thought the 2004 draft was good to the Reds with both Bailey and Szymanski coming in.

John Manuel: AS for Janish, his defense at short is very, very good, and there are no plans to move him. The Reds aren't swimming in shortstops; if Janish gets stronger physically and continues to improve like he did in 2004, he'll hit enough to be a starter, because his glove is special.

 Q:  Doc Scott from reds.mostvaluablenetwork.com asks:
Can Chris Denorfia make the big leagues? He suddenly started to drive the ball last season.
 A: 

John Manuel: He can though probably not as an everyday player. Club officials compare him to Brady Clark, whom the Reds signed as a NDFA and got to the big leagues. Donorfia's bat isn't quite as good as Clark's, but he's a better defender and runner.

 Q:  Blair from Anaheim asks:
Hi John, Thanks for taking my questions as always. Best case scenario, how do you see Pauly and Gardner doing? If Pauly develops a change, his ceiling is higher than Gardner's right? Are they both 2-3 starters in the future?
 A: 

John Manuel: Gardner's pretty good now and is pretty close to the big leagues. Getting stronger and getting more experience, he should be a nice middle-of-the-rotation pitcher; that's very nice value in a sixth-round pick. Pauly has to do more than develop a change, it's just learning to pitch, learning the feel for getting hitters out three and four times in a game . . . I would agree that his ceiling, if it all comes together, would be a shade higher, but Gardner's stuff is pretty good too. Best-case, as you said, yes, a pair of 2-3 starters.

 Q:  Joshua Heines from Trenton, NJ asks:
I know it's not Mets or Red Sox day, but where would Ian Bladegroen fall on the Sox list? What are your thoughts on the Mets trading Blade for Minky when they could have simply signed Travis Lee?
 A: 

John Manuel: Travis Lee has never won anything. Doug Mientkiewicz has a gold medal next to that famous World Series ball in his safe deposit box; maybe I sound like Toolsy McClutch here, but I think there's something to that. I'll let Jim Callis sort out where Bladergroen falls with the Sox; probably lower than he did in the Mets system. The Mets' goal obviously is to be good now, rather than in three years when Bladergroen might be ready. Can't fault them for that.

 Q:  The Kelly Family from Cincinnati, OH asks:
Steve Kelly has put up great numbers at virtually every level, but has never sniffed a top ten list. Can he make the majors?
 A: 

John Manuel: He can, he's not too different from Dustin Mosely for me, fastball velocity is an issue for both, both have good command, and for me, Steve Kelly has done it more; he had a really nice 2004. He'll be in the Handbook, he's not far from the Top 10, actually. As an aside, Mike Trapasso gave me what I believe to be Steve's hat back at a Tech-North Carolina game in 2001. So I probably think about him more than I really should, every time I wear that "buzz" hat.

 Q:  TennesseeRed from Chattanooga asks:
Is Brian Peterson the real deal? He started hitting in 2004, both in AA and in the AFL, and was named the Southern League's best defensive catcher.
 A: 

John Manuel: I don't know if he's the real deal, but he's a defensive-oriented catcher in an organization swimming in them, so that's the issue. This past season is so out of line with what he's done in the past, frankly I'd like to see him do it again.

 Q:  Russ from NY asks:
Last year, Ranier Feliz was named the sleeper in the organization in the Handbook last season, but this past season his numbers weren't all that impressive. Is he still in the 11-20 range?
 A: 

John Manuel: No; at some point, throwing hard isn't good enough, and he was 21 in the Pioneer League, so it's not like he was young for the league anymore. He's still a sleeper, but wake up already.

 Q:  E. Wade from Philadelphia, PA asks:
Does the fact that Elizardo Ramirez doesn't appear on your Reds list after making the Phillies' top ten previously and pitching well in 2004 mean the Reds' system is superior at the moment?
 A: 

John Manuel: At the top, they are similar, though the Reds have a bit more depth at the top. Neither has much depth overall. Very similar organizations, the Phillies probably get an edge because Floyd, Hamels and R. Howard, plus Golson and Bourn, at the very top, I think the Phillies are a little better.

 Q:  Steve Thieme from Morehead, KY asks:
What do you think the ceiling of Chris Gruler is? Could him, Bailey and Gardner form a Maddux, Smoltz, and Glavine or how about a Becket, Burnett, and Willis like combo?
 A: 

John Manuel: It's very hard to say because (a) some scouts never thought he had the stuff to be drafted third overall and (b) now he's had shoulder surgery. I would not pencil him in for anything until he has a full season in the minors and we see what kind of stuff he has post-surgery. He's far from a sure thing, so comparing him to major leaguers right now is folly.

 Q:  S. Slonaker from Cincinnati asks:
What's Kevin Howard's potential and who are his comparables?
 A: 

John Manuel: Best-case scenario, he's Adam Kennedy. He has good intangibles, and his best tangible asset is his bat; he can hit, though he may do it in a rather unorthodox fashion. He takes walks, he hits for enough power for his position . . . those are good traits.

 Q:  Jon from Peoria asks:
Good afternoon, John! What's the status of Chris Gruler? Can Javon Moran be more than just an extra outfielder? And are the Reds going to continue using their tandem starter system?
 A: 

John Manuel: Gruler threw in instructional league and the results were encouraging, but he's still trying to get his feel for pitching back and shake off some rust. Moran can be more than an extra outfielder if he picks up on the organization's patience train and learns the value of a walk. And it does appear the Reds will continue with the tandem-starter approach, it worked pretty well in 2004 as far as keeping guys like Gardner, Pauly, Pelland, et al healthy.

 Q:  Princeton from NJ asks:
Whither Mark Schramek? He seems to have hit a wall. Is it worth a shot to move him back to pitching?
 A: 

John Manuel: That hasn't been mentioned to my knowledge, but maybe it's worth a try. He's 24 and hasn't hit in A-ball yet. He's progressed defensively and he's got some power; it's hard to give up on lefthanded power. But he's not in the top 30.

 Q:  M. Lewis from New York asks:
Toss us a couple of darkhorse pitching prospect names, and why you name the ones you do.
 A: 

John Manuel: Sure . . . Jon George, who had some ankle issues at Dayton, has interesting stuff though he struggled last season at Dayton as a 19-year-old. He has a projectable frame. Zach Stott has good size and some feel for pitching. If Camilo Vazquez can get healthy, he'd give the Reds a power lefty, which is always nice. And I will always believe in Jeff Bruksch, put him at the back of the bullpen and tell him to pretend he's in Omaha, where the guy was just money for the Cardinal.

 Q:  draftnik from Cincinnati asks:
The Reds drafted three other high school pitchers in the top ten rounds in 2004 besides Homer Bailey: Rafael Gonzalez (4th), Phil Valiquette (7th), and Terrell Young (10th). The case could be made that all three had talent warranting higher selections (Gonzalez and Young dropped on intangibles; Valiquette on concerns about work visas from Quebec). What's the outlook on the trio? Who's the best prospect?
 A: 

John Manuel: Good question; all are interesting. Young has wicked stuff at times, but he'sa professional now, and that's a challenge for a kid from Mississippi with a three-year-old kid and lots of issues in his life. The Reds need to be very patient with him, which I think they recognize. Gonzalez sounds like a power reliever to me. Valiquette has a nice arm and is lefthanded but missed out on development time this year. I ranked Gonzalez as the best of the trio because he has power stuff and just needs to get in shape.

 Q:  Scott Hindman from Formerly of Princeton U. asks:
John, How about two Princeton Tigers back-to-back on a Top 10 Prospects list??? Add this to a Rangers Top 10 selection for C. Young and a possible top 15-20 for the DBacks Ross Ohlendorf, and you have to give to props to the job Scott Bradley does cultivating baseball talent at an institution that does not offer athletic scholarships and has arguably the toughest admissions standards for athletes in the country.
 A: 

John Manuel: Scott Hindman also pitches for the Angels and has some big-time velo for a lefty. Didn't coach Bradley teach you to throw strikes, Scott? But yes, Princeton deserves props, and I believe BA has given the Tigers more than their share. I'm never going to shy away from giving a Carolina guy his due . . .

 Q:  Alex from Dallas asks:
Who is next Homer Bailey coming in this year's draft? ie, high end high school pitchers.
 A: 

John Manuel: There isn't one; Bailey is that good.

 Q:  Jim from Dayton asks:
The GCL Reds didn't have a very good 2004. One player that stood out was 2B Mayker Sandoval. Know anything about him?
 A: 

John Manuel: I happen to, which is why I answered this question. He's not a Top 30 guy yet, but Sandoval has some strength in his body and some potential with the bat. He's a plus runner with power potential, but he needs to make more consistent contact and just slow down a little, really. He's probably headed to Dayton as the 2B next year.

 Q:  princeton from princeton asks:
the 8-manfour day rotation: doesn't it make sense to extend that to AA and AAA, and eventually to a four-man major league rotation? Is there any chance that we'll see a four-man rotation in Cincinnati during the O'Brien regime?
 A: 

John Manuel: Not for me. It's hard to imagine wanting my eighth-best pitcher to throw roughly as many innings as my best pitcher in the big leagues, and at some point, you have to start preparing pitchers to throw 100-120 pitches a game. I think if you're going to employ the tandem-starter approach, the low minors is where to do it.

 Q:  Tom McCullough from York PA asks:
John: Thanks for the chats again. Bubba Nelson heads a cluster of starting pitchers who did not make the BA Reds Top Ten: Steve Kelly, Calvin Medlock, Joseph Wilson, and Elizrdo Ramirez. Are they nos. 11-15 or does one stand out above the rest as a prospect?
 A: 

John Manuel: I've touched on two of those guys, Tom, but not Medlock or Wilson yet. I'm much higher on Medlock, who seems to have some pitchability to go with his power arm. Wilson throws hard, but doesn't do much else according to the scouts I've talked to that have seen him.

 Q:  Eric from Houston asks:
What happened to Jose "Willy Jo" Ronda last season? Are the Reds still high on his potential?
 A: 

John Manuel: It depends on who you talk to in the organization, but the consensus of those outside the organization seems to be no. He's very young; perhaps I'm premature in writing him off. It sounds like he's got a lot of maturing to do.

 Q:  Tom McCullough from York PA asks:
John: What happened to Stephen Smitherman? He is not a BA Reds Top Ten prospect. He is not even on the Reds 40-player roster. Thanks.
 A: 

John Manuel: Really, 2003 was quite the career year for him; it sounds like he lost his strike zone this year, really expanded, cost him his power, his strikeouts went up . . . none of the other teams wanted him in the Rule 5 draft, that's pretty indicative that he's not a really coveted talent.

 Q:  Ron from South Bend, IN asks:
With the addition, I guess you would call it that, of pitchers like Dumtrait, Howington, Kozlowski, et al, are the Reds going to have deep pitching in the system this year, IF they stay healthy. Which any good Reds fan can tell you is a big IF either in the minors or majors.
 A: 

John Manuel: On to the lightning round . . .

John Manuel: I think you hit on it; the system's depth is improved, I think, by the trades, the draft, the waiver claim on Kozlowski, in terms of depth. Now the Reds have to keep those guys healthy (and of course Koz's injury isn't on them).

 Q:  Tom McCullough from York PA asks:
John: Anderson Machado currently has visa problems keeping him in Venezuela. Because he is from Venezuela, it is not likely that he will return to the US with a different name or age. Is he still a prospect at SS? Thanks.
 A: 

John Manuel: Hard to know with the extent of the injury, which is unknown. I don't t hink he'll come in with a different age; Venezuela is a tumultuous place these days and it's just hard to get out of there, I believe. He's still a prospect, but the bat still has a long way to go.

 Q:  Lanny from Toronto asks:
Hi John, BA ranked Symanski as the 19th best player heading into the draft, but he slipped to the reds at 48. Why is that? Is there something there that other scouting directors didn't like? Also, what do you consider his ceiling. Thanks!
 A: 

John Manuel: He's raw, two-sport guys don't have a super track record, there are reasons to be cautious or conservative about him. But his ceiling is considerable, because he's a toolsy guy with a good-looking swing, good combination, kind of sounds like Jeff Francouer.

 Q:  Joe from Greenwood, SC asks:
Do you think the Reds will get Tony Blanco back?
 A: 

John Manuel: Yes, I don't think he's ready to stick on a big league roster.

 Q:  scott swinney from west chester, Oh asks:
With the signing of Joe Randa to a 1 year deal it appears the Reds think Encarnacion will be the everyday 3rd baseman in 2006. What are your thoughts on him. I'm a little concerned with his fielding but, it sounds like he has a lively bat.
 A: 

John Manuel: I believe I've addressed Encarnacion, but that does appear to be the plan, and it's a very good plan. Encarnacion can hit, his power is continuing to improve as he learns the strike zone and physically matures, and he's improving his fundamentals on defense. A year in Triple-A will be good for all involved.

 Q:  Toby from Tampa asks:
John, you da man as usual. WHat is the status of Dane Sardinha? Will he ever live up to his potential?
 A: 

John Manuel: Thank you. I have been a Sardinha fan, I remember him playing second base in double-headers at Pepperdine and thought that athletic ability would carry him to the majors. Unfortunately, he has not shown enough aptitude offensively, seems allergic to walks and profiles as no better than a backup.

 Q:  Kyle from Middletown asks:
From best-to-worst how would you rate the following pitchers: Elizardo Ramirez,Richie Gardner,Thomas Pauley, Steve Kelly, Jeff Bruksch? Thank-you.
 A: 

John Manuel: well, Gardner and Pauly are in order in teh top 10, then for me it's Ramirez, Kelly and Bruksch. I think I'm the only one who would consider Bruksch in that discussion outside of his family and the people in Palo Alto. I just loved hearing Mark Marquess say Jeff's last name about five different ways per postgame interview in Omaha. It was an annual ritual it seemed. Forgive me, I digress. . .

 Q:  Erick from Columbus asks:
Good afternoon, Reds #2 prospect, Edwin Encarnacion, only ranked #6 in the Southern League. #3 prospect Richie Gardener ranked just #9 in the Carolina League. #4 prospect Joey Votto was #7 in the Midwest League. Do these comparitive rankings undersocre the weakness of the Reds farm system? Thanks.
 A: 

John Manuel: I don't think so at all. "Only" No. 6? The guys aheada of him were Marte, Guzman, Weeks, Fielder and Capellan, those are really elite guys. Gardner was behind elite guys as well, like the White Sox' top three prospects and Brian McCann, one of the minors' best catchers. There is evidence that the Reds' system isn't in great shape; this isn't it.

 Q:  Joe from Greenwood, SC asks:
I heard Gruler got back up to 88 last year. Is his health still improving? Could he still be a 1 or 2 starter?
 A: 

John Manuel: I'm sure it's possible, but how many No. 1 or 2 starters were throwing 88 mph and had already had major shoulder surgery when they were 21? I'd temper my enthusiasm. Just making every start would be huge progress for Gruler.

 Q:  Pirate Nation from NC asks:
Hi John Where does 2004 9th Round selection Trevor Lawhorn (former ECU 2nd baseman) rank and what is the projection
 A: 

John Manuel: Just missed the 30; I liked his brother better as a prospect because he's lefthanded. Some scouts around N.C. wanted to try Lawhorn behind the plate, but the Reds don't appear to have any plans to do so.

 Q:  Joe from Greenwood, SC asks:
What happened to Feliz last year? He was ranked 15th last year by BA in the Reds system. Did he loose any velocity?
 A: 

John Manuel: No, but he didn't find the strike zone or get anyone out consistently.

 Q:  Bill Harding from Evans, Ga asks:
How does the Dayton outfield shape up this year?
 A: 

John Manuel: Thanks for the question, Bill. I'd say Szymanski, Drew Anderson and Cody Strait, with Jordan Belcher and Matt Gray in the mix.

 Q:  Joe from Greenwood, SC asks:
Is Bobby Basham going to play this year? How has his recovery been?
 A: 

John Manuel: It sounds like his arm strength isn't all the way back to his 94 mph days, but it does sound like he'll pitch this year.

 Q:  Scott from Detroit asks:
Thanks in advance for chatting. Does the addition of FA starters (Milton, Ortiz) mean that the rotation is all but set? If not, do you see Hudson or someone like Gardner in the mix...and what might their ceilings be if they snag a spot?
 A: 

John Manuel: Four or five guys competing for two spots, with Hudson, Claussen, Harang, J. Hancock and maybe E. Ramirez in the mix, I don't think Gardner will move that fast.

 Q:  Unc from Texas asks:
What chance do you give 5th round pick Paul Janish of becoming an everyday player in the bigs, or is he more of a utility type guy? And a possible ETA in your opinion.
 A: 

John Manuel: He wouldn't have made the top 10 if I didn't think he could be an everyday SS. ETA, best-case, 2008 full-time; I think the bat will need three full years in the minors.

 Q:  adam from ny asks:
WOULD YOU HAVE TAKEN MARK ROGERS OR HOMER BAILEY?
 A: 

John Manuel: Rogers was off the board when the Reds drafted him, but I'd have taken Bailey, sounds like his mechanics are cleaner.

 Q:  Bubba Cook from Blythe , Georgia asks:
Where do you project Kenny Lewis this year?
 A: 

John Manuel: GCL or Dayton at best. I do understand that his work ethic through his hamstring injuries was exemplary.

 Q:  Joe from Greenwood, SC asks:
What is your opinion of Junior Ruiz? He has great plate discipline and good speed. I never hear any news about him.
 A: 

John Manuel: Small corner OF with more baserunning savvy than speed. San Jose State represent. He's always hit, but doesn't have the power for the position he plays, and I think he's going to just be a good minor leaguer.

 Q:  Joe from Chantilly, VA asks:
Homer Bailey has by all accounts ellectric stuff and the makeup to be a frontline starter. Is there any cause for alarm then that he didn't come close to dominating Gulf Coast league talent? It is a small sample size, but one would figure with fastball up to 97, a hammer curve and command, you shouldnt be hit much.
 A: 

John Manuel: No. He had pitched enough and was really just getting on the Reds' throwing program, not really competing out there, plus his knee was acting up. I wouldn't be concerned; I see your point, but the sample size and the circumstances combine to make me discount that.

Moderator: Sorry, with everything else going on, I'm going to have to cut out, but thanks for all the questions, Reds fans came to play with passion. Thank you all for coming in, Cubs coming on Friday with a Jim Callis chat.

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