Top 100 Prospects: Risk Factors

Compiled by Matt Eddy
February 19, 2013

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See also: Top 100 Prospects
See also: Top 100 Prospect Tidbits
See also: Top 100 Prospects By The Numbers
See also: Top 100 Prospects Podcast
See also: Top 100 Prospects Best Tools
See also: Top 100 Prospects Chat
See also: Top 100 Prospects Process Keeps Improving
See also: Some Bargains Were Found Among Top 100 Prospects
See also: Five Top 100 Near-Misses To Watch In 2013
See also: All-Time Top 100 Prospects List
See also: Updated Team Top 10 Prospect Lists

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Three pitchers who cracked the Top 100 Prospects list walked more than five batters per nine innings last season at the low Class A level. Yet power righthanders Archie Bradley (No. 25 pictured above), Aaron Sanchez (65) and Kyle Crick (66) all catch scouts' attention with double-plus fastballs and curveballs that could be consistent put-away pitches with improved consistency.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

Year	Name	Org	Age	Team	Lge	Lvl	IP	BB/9	SO/9
2012	Archie Bradley	ARI	19	South Bend	MWL	Lo A	136	5.6	10.1
2012	Aaron Sanchez	TOR	19	Lansing	MWL	Lo A	90	5.1	9.7
2012	Kyle Crick	SF	19	Augusta	SAL	Lo A	111	5.4	10.3

How optimistic should we be about Bradley, Sanchez and Crick cutting back on free passes as they climb the minor league ladder? Below are nine righthanders of recent vintage who had trouble finding the plate in the low minors but went on to make at least 30 career big league starts. To qualify, a pitcher must have been between the ages of 18-20 while finishing with more than 5 BB/9 and more than 8 SO/9 in a season at one Class A level (min. 60 innings).

The Homer Bailey and Kerry Wood comparisons jump off the page because both were touted power righties from the high school ranks who piled up strikeouts and walks galore during their full-season debuts in Class A. Note that the Cubs jumped Wood directly to high Class A.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

Year	Name	Org	Age	Team	Lge	Lvl	IP	BB/9	SO/9
2005	Homer Bailey	CIN	19	Dayton	MWL	Lo A	104	5.4	10.9
1996	Kerry Wood	CHC	19	Daytona	FSL	Hi A	114	5.5	10.7
1989	Pat Mahomes	MIN	18	Kenosha	MWL	Lo A	156	5.8	9.6
1997	Matt Kinney	BOS	20	Michigan	MWL	Lo A	117	6.0	9.4
1991	Paul Byrd	CLE	20	Kinston	CAR	Hi A	63	5.2	8.9
1990	Pat Mahomes	MIN	19	Visalia	CAL	Hi A	185	5.7	8.6
2009	Tyler Chatwood	LAA	19	Cedar Rapids	MWL	Lo A	116	5.1	8.2
1995	Jaret Wright	CLE	19	Columbus	SAL	Lo A	129	5.5	7.9
2004	Charlie Morton	ATL	20	Rome	SAL	Lo A	117	5.2	7.9

Throwing a plus fastball is practically a requirement for righthanders to make the Top 100 Prospects. Another unifying factor is a plus breaking ball, something with hard biting action away from righthanded batters. Just four righties among the Top 100 did not receive at least a 55 grade (solid-average) for either a curveball or slider: Kevin Gausman (No. 26 pictured above) Julio Teheran (44), Michael Wacha (76) and Jake Odorizzi (92).

Others who could be in the danger zone because they don't have a plus (60) breaker: Trevor Rosenthal (39), Allen Webster (49), Noah Syndergaard (54), Robert Stephenson (56), Daniel Corcino (94) and Bruce Rondon (95).
Is it pure coincidence that three of those players—Odorizzi, Webster and Syndergaard—all were traded in 2012? Don't scoff. The downside risk for a righthander without a big breaking ball could be a career along the lines of Mike Pelfrey (No. 20, 2007), Alex White (47, 2011) or Dewon Brazelton (57, 2002). If the fastball is explosive enough, a career in the bullpen could await, a la Neftali Feliz (No. 9, 2010).

Rey Ordonez debuted with the Mets in 1996, becoming perhaps the godfather of modern major league shortstops from Cuba. Though the shortstop pipeline would one day flow freely, it sputtered to life at first, producing only Yuniesky Betancourt (2005) in the decade after Ordonez's debut. In recent years, Yunel Escobar (2007), Alexei Ramirez (2008), Jose Iglesias (2011) and Adeiny Hechavarria (2012) have joined the party.

Cuban pitchers have been equally well represented with the likes of Livan Hernandez (17 seasons in the big leagues), Orlando Hernandez (nine), Vladimir Nunez (nine), Dannys Baez (10), Jose Contreras(^) (10) and Aroldis Chapman (100 mph).

But until recently, major league organizations had not received many contributions from non-shortstop position players from Cuba. That has changed in the past four seasons, as Kendrys Morales smacked 34 homers for the '09 Angels and Dayan Viciedo smacked 25 homers for the White Sox last year. But no Cuban success story has emboldened clubs quite like Yoenis Cespedes, who signed with the Athletics for $36 million last March and made a seamless transition to the big leagues, batting .292/.356/.505 with 23 homers.

On deck for 2013: A trio of talented Cuban hitters who signed big-money deals and made this year's Top 100. The Cubs' Jorge Soler (No. 34; signed for $30 million pictured above) and the Dodgers' Yasiel Puig (47, $42 million) could develop along the lines of Cespedes with double-plus power and pure right-field profiles, while Leonys Martin (97, $15.6 million) could earn a share of center field for the Rangers.

Quality big league starting pitchers typically do two or three things well: They strike out batters, they limit walks and/or they keep balls in play on the ground. We can get a rough idea of a prospect's level of dominance by considering the percentage of outs he records via strikeout and groundout. A pitcher (like Wily Peralta pictured above) with a high groundout-plus-strikeout percentage can still have a low ceiling based on a high walk rate, but generally a high GOSO% pitcher will be a safer bet because his opponents will struggle to put together extended rallies.

Let's break out the top performers in this category by classification (min. 200 batters faced), with the idea that it's easier to rack up strikeouts and groundouts at the lower levels, where hitters have much less discipline.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

TRIPLE-A
Pitcher	Team	Org	Lge	GO	SO	Outs	GOSO
Trevor Bauer	Reno	ARI	PCL	81	97	246	72.4%
Wily Peralta	Nashville	MIL	PCL	175	143	440	72.3%
Chris Archer	Durham	TB	IL	129	139	384	69.8%
Danny Hultzen	Tacoma	SEA	PCL	36	57	146	63.7%
Shelby Miller	Memphis	STL	PCL	96	160	410	62.4%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

DOUBLE-A
Pitcher	Team	Org	Lge	GO	SO	Outs	GOSO
Allen Webster	Chattanooga	LAD	SL	158	117	365	75.3%
Carlos Martinez	Springfield	STL	TL	102	58	214	74.8%
Trevor Bauer	Mobile	ARI	SL	41	60	145	69.7%
Gerrit Cole	Altoona	PIT	EL	63	60	177	69.5%
James Paxton	Jackson	SEA	SL	103	110	319	66.8%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

HIGH CLASS A
Pitcher	Team	Org	Lge	GO	SO	Outs	GOSO
Gerrit Cole	Bradenton	PIT	FSL	78	69	201	73.1%
J.R. Graham	Lynchburg	ATL	CAR	155	68	308	72.4%
Tony Cingrani	Bakersfield	CIN	CAL	47	71	170	69.4%
Yordano Ventura	Wilmington	KC	CAR	60	98	229	69.0%
Jose Fernandez	Jupiter	MIA	FSL	50	59	165	66.1%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

LOW CLASS A
Pitcher	Team	Org	Lge	GO	SO	Outs	GOSO
Noah Syndergaard	Lansing	TOR	MWL	125	122	311	79.4%
Aaron Sanchez	Lansing	TOR	MWL	109	97	271	76.0%
Archie Bradley	South Bend	ARI	MWL	158	152	408	76.0%
Alex Meyer	Hagerstown	WAS	SAL	87	107	270	71.9%
Justin Nicolino	Lansing	TOR	MWL	148	119	373	71.6%

Pitchers tend to lose velocity as they age, and as a rule their strikeout rates decline as they climb the professional ranks. So minor league pitchers with high strikeout rates tend to be the best bets for sustained success in the big leagues. A list of this year's Top 100 Prospects who finished with red flag-worthy strikeout rates (fewer than 7.5 SO/9) in a meaningful sample (200 batters faced at one level) highlights seven players. Their inability to miss bats could lower their ceilings.

Perez (pictured above) is making his fifth appearance on the Top 100, and Teheran his fourth, and both 21-year-olds have struggled to get over the Triple-A hump and have seen their strikeout rates regress. Both added new pitches in 2012, so they can be forgiven for some of the backslide. Pitchers like Graham and Martinez excel at keeping the ball on the ground. Odorizzi could run into trouble without more strikeouts or more groundouts—he allowed a 0.42 groundout-to-airout ratio with Omaha.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

Pitcher	Org	Age	Team	Lge	Lvl	IP	SO	SO/9
Martin Perez	TEX	21	Round Rock	PCL	AAA	127	69	4.89
Luis Heredia	PIT	17	State College	NYP	SS	66	40	5.43
J.R. Graham	ATL	22	Lynchburg	CAR	Hi A	103	68	5.96
Julio Teheran	ATL	21	Gwinnett	IL	AAA	131	97	6.66
Jameson Taillon	PIT	20	Bradenton	FSL	Hi A	125	98	7.06
Carlos Martinez	STL	20	Springfield	TL	AA	71	58	7.32
Jake Odorizzi	KC	22	Omaha	PCL	AAA	107	88	7.38

The major league strikeout rate continues to rise each season as teams pack more pitchers with swing-and-miss stuff into shorter outings. Last season, 17 batting title qualifiers struck out in at least 25 percent of plate appearances. Ten years ago, just seven did. Still, making contact is an important skill for prospects. That's why the following Top 100 Prospects have been flagged for excessive swinging and missing (in a sample of 200 PA at one level), which if unchecked could cut into their upside potential at the upper levels.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Batters	Pos	Team	Org	Lg	Lvl	SO	PA	SO%
Bubba Starling	CF	Burlington	KC	APP	R	70	234	29.9%
Slade Heathcott	CF	Tampa	NYY	FSL	Hi A	66	243	27.2%
George Springer	CF	Lancaster	HOU	CAL	Hi A	131	500	26.2%
Miguel Sano	3B	Beloit	MIN	MWL	Lo A	144	553	26.0%
Mike Olt	3B	Frisco	TEX	TL	AA	101	421	24.0%
Jonathan Singleton	1B	Corpus	HOU	TL	AA	131	555	23.6%
Nick Franklin	SS	Tacoma	SEA	PCL	AAA	68	296	23.0%
Gary Sanchez	C	Charleston	NYY	SAL	Lo A	65	289	22.5%
Wil Myers	CF	Omaha	KC	PCL	AAA	98	439	22.3%
Nick Castellanos	RF	Erie	DET	EL	AA	76	341	22.3%

A high strikeout rate in the minors is hardly a kiss of death for a developing slugger, however. The following big league stars (ranked by career OPS) fanned more than a quarter of the time in at least one minor league season of 200 or more PA. (Of course, the list is also littered with multiple seasons by sluggers like Russell Branyan, Jack Cust, Wily Mo Pena, Josh Phelps and Ruben Rivera, who didn't quite live up to expectations.)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

Year	Player	Age	Aff	Tm	Lg	Lvl	SO	PA	SO%
2003	Joey Votto	19	CIN	Dayton	MWL	Lo A	64	233	27.5%
1997	David Ortiz	21	MIN	New Britain	EL	AA	78	285	27.4%
2004	Ryan Howard	24	PHI	Reading	EL	AA	129	433	29.8%
2009	Giancarlo Stanton	19	FLA	Jacksonville	SL	AA	99	341	29.0%
1992	Jim Edmonds	22	LAA	Midland	TL	AA	83	289	28.7%
1998	Travis Hafner	21	TEX	Savannah	SAL	Lo A	139	484	28.7%
2004	Mike Napoli	22	LAA	R. Cucamonga	CAL	Hi A	166	584	28.4%
1996	Derrek Lee	20	SD	Memphis	SL	AA	170	575	29.6%
2005	Curtis Granderson	24	DET	Toledo	IL	AAA	129	503	25.6%