Midseason Prospect Update: Top 100 Update

By Chris Kline
July 16, 2007

The following rankings give some indication of how much each player has improved or regressed since our 2007 Top 100 Prospects list was published in March.

For the purposes of this list, we used three rules: Players had to be rookie-eligible (sorry, Daisuke and Alex Gordon); they had to be in the minor leagues at the time of the major league All-Star Game (tough one, Matt Garza); and no 2007 draft picks. A Diamondbacks position player tops the list for the second straight year at midseason, and this year marks the arrival of Justin Upton. And while there are five pitchers in the top 10, hitters claim the first four spots and outfielders from the 2005 draft populate the list.

Rk.	Player, Pos., Organization	Stats (Current Level)	In Brief
1.	Justin Upton, of, Diamondbacks	.318/.399/.535 (AA)	Best overall tool package anywhere.
2.	Jay Bruce, of, Reds	.325/.384/.602 (AA)	The second coming of Larry Walker.
3.	Cameron Maybin, of, Tigers	.303/.396/.466 (Hi A)	Best power/speed combination out there.
4.	Evan Longoria, 3b, Devil Rays	.301/.396/.522 (AA)	Can do it all, with good opposite-field power.
5.	Homer Bailey, rhp, Reds	6-1, 2.31 (AAA)	Got hammered in the big leagues, but still the top arm.
6.	Clayton Kershaw, lhp, Dodgers	7-3, 2.12 (Lo A)	Only allowed two homers this season, both in all-star games.
7.	Clay Buchholz, rhp, Red Sox	7-2, 1.77 (AA)	Three quality pitches with outstanding feel.
8.	Jacob McGee, lhp, Devil Rays	5-3, 2.86 (Hi A)	Slightly better fastball than Kershaw, but secondary pitches need to improve.
9.	Joba Chamberlain, rhp, Yankees	7-1, 2.26 (AA)	Some of the best pure stuff in the minors with an advanced approach.
10.	Adam Jones, of, Mariners	.309/.377/.585 (AAA)	More power and speed, but likely won’t hit for high average at the next level.
11.	Wade Davis, rhp, Devil Rays	6-0, 1.82 (AA)	Dominant stuff with the presence and poise of a 27-year-old.
12.	Colby Rasmus, of, Cardinals	.258/.354/.513 (AA)	Another 2005 first-rounder, Rasmus’ tools aren’t far behind the others.
13.	Brandon Wood, 3b, Angels	.264/.345/.476 (AAA)	Will he ever learn to shorten his swing?
14.	Andrew McCutchen, of, Pirates	.238/.303/.350 (AA)	Big tools, but needs to make quicker adjustments.
15.	Fernando Martinez, of, Mets	.271/.336/.377 (AA)	Not a sure thing, but he’s the youngest player in the EL.
16.	Deolis Guerra, rhp, Mets	1-5, 4.58 (Hi A)	Big-bodied righthander improved his velocity and break on his slider.
17.	Travis Snider, of, Blue Jays	.313/.379/.511 (Lo A)	Polished hitter is arguably the top prospect in the MWL.
18.	Joey Votto, 1b, Reds	.315/.412/.482 (AAA)	Started slowly in AAA, but corrective lenses have put him back on track.
19.	Eric Hurley, rhp, Rangers	8-4, 3.42(AAA)	Three quality pitches and has been as steady as it gets this season.
20.	Nick Adenhart, rhp, Angels	6-2, 3.33 (AA)	Taken some lumps in the TL this season, but great frame and arsenal of pitches.
21.	Jeff Clement, c, Mariners	.274/.366/.513 (AAA)	Thriving in AAA after scuffling there last season.
22.	Carlos Carrasco, rhp, Phillies	9-2, 2.99 (AA)	Solid and steady; scouts raved about Carrasco’s improved changeup.
23.	Chuck Lofgren, lhp, Indians	8-6, 4.53 (AA)	Needs to get better with runners on base, but great mix of pitches.
24.	Gio Gonzalez, lhp, White Sox	6-4, 3.10 (AA)	Better fastball than Lofgren, but doesn’t have the same changeup.
25.	Reid Brignac, ss, Devil Rays	.254/.306/.419 (AA)	Struggling in his first Double-A stint at age 21, but it’s still there.
Just missing the cut: Wladimir Balentien, of, Mariners; Daric Barton, 1b, Athletics; Jacoby Ellsbury, of, Red Sox; Luke Hochevar, rhp, Royals; Andy LaRoche, 3b/of, Dodgers; Chris Marrero, of, Nationals; Adam Miller, rhp, Indians; Franklin Morales, lhp, Rockies; Jeff Niemann, rhp, Devil Rays; Ian Stewart, 3b, Rockies.

BRING YOUR TOOLBOX
There are so many tools within the updated top 25 that an octopus wouldn’t have enough arms to get around all of them. Even if the players who already graduated to the big leagues don’t offer the same bang for your buck as last season, there are plenty of players still eligible in the top 100 with four-plus tools in the field or on the mound ready to pull their socks up and get after it. While bunches of players on this list are putting up good numbers, some are still having difficulty either adjusting to the league they’re in or need to shore up one or more aspects of their game. The perfect example is Devil Rays infielder Reid Brignac, who kills lefthanders to the tune of .310, but is hitting just .214 against righties. But Brignac hits for more power against righthanders, bombing seven of his 10 homers against righties. Very disturbing splits for a player who is viewed as the shortstop of the future in Tampa Bay. The most impressive player on this list is Pirates third baseman Neil Walker, who handled the transition from catcher to third base with aplomb, and is hitting for average and power in Double-A.
5.	Homer Bailey, rhp, Reds
6.	Cameron Maybin, of, Tigers
7.	Evan Longoria, 3b, Devil Rays
8.	Brandon Wood, 3b, Angels
9.	Justin Upton, of, Diamondbacks
13.	Andrew McCutchen, of, Pirates
14.	Jay Bruce, of, Reds
17.	Reid Brignac, ss, Devil Rays
24.	Clayton Kershaw, lhp, Dodgers
29.	Colby Rasmus, of, Cardinals
30.	Franklin Morales, lhp, Rockies
32.	Luke Hochevar, rhp, Royals
37.	Jacob McGee, lhp, Devil Rays
41.	Carlos Carrasco, rhp, Phillies
47.	Bill Rowell, 1b, Orioles
51.	Clay Buchholz, rhp, Red Sox
53.	Travis Sinder, of, Blue Jays
54.	Chuck Lofgren, lhp, Indians
62.	Jeff Clement, c, Mariners
72.	Gio Gonzalez, lhp, White Sox
74.	Neil Walker, 3b, Pirates
75.	Joba Chamberlain, rhp, Yankees
97.	Wade Davis, rhp, Devil Rays

RIGHT ON SCHEDULE
Walker also leads this group, switching positions and still keeping his bat alive with emerging power. The move not only has allowed the Pirates to get more out of the 2004 first-rounder’s bat, but it also has possibly provided them with their third baseman of the future. Beyond Walker there are plenty of players on cruise control this season.
6.	Cameron Maybin, of, Tigers
7.	Evan Longoria, 3b, Devil Rays
9.	Justin Upton, of, Diamondbacks
14.	Jay Bruce, of, Reds
24.	Clayton Kershaw, lhp, Dodgers
37.	Jacob McGee, lhp, Devil Rays
41.	Carlos Carrasco, rhp, Phillies
51.	Clay Buchholz, rhp, Red Sox
53.	Travis Sinder, of, Blue Jays
72.	Gio Gonzalez, lhp, White Sox
74.	Neil Walker, 3b, Pirates
75.	Joba Chamberlain, rhp, Yankees
97.	Wade Davis, rhp, Devil Rays

THE GRADUATES
Last year, 36 players ranked in this category even though 2005 was dubbed ‘The Year of the Rookie.’ But at this point of 2007, the list falls short of last year’s with 28 players graduating to the majors from the beginning of the season. As a whole, this crop might not rival last year’s in terms of impact level either, but Hunter Pence (Astros) is the leading candidate for NL rookie of the year, Andrew Miller (Tigers) fought his way into the rotation of one of the elite clubs in the American League, Troy Tulowitzki (Rockies) secured a job anchoring the infield in Colorado and Brandon Morrow (Mariners) made Seattle’s bullpen out of spring training—after the 2006 first-rounder spent just 16 innings in the minors after signing for $2.45 million last June. This group includes Yankees righthander Philip Hughes, who was called up to the big leagues at the end of April only to go on the disabled list after two starts. Hughes is currently rehabbing in the minors, but is on the major league disabled list and therefore doesn’t qualify for our top 25 update.
4.	Philip Hughes, rhp, Yankees
10.	Andrew Miller, lhp, Tigers
11.	Tim Lincecum, rhp, Giants
12.	Chris Young, of, Diamondbacks
15.	Troy Tulowitzki, ss, Rockies
16.	Yovani Gallardo, rhp, Brewers
20.	Mike Pelfrey, rhp, Mets
21.	Matt Garza, rhp, Twins
25.	Billy Butler, 1b/of, Royals
26.	Ryan Braun, 3b, Brewers
36.	Jarrod Saltalamacchia, c/1b, Braves
38.	Hunter Pence, of, Astros
39.	Adam Lind, of, Blue Jays
42.	Jason Hirsh, rhp, Rockies
44.	James Loney, 1b, Dodgers
45.	Josh Fields, 3b, White Sox
49.	Felix Pie, of, Cubs
50.	Travis Buck, of, Athletics
56.	John Danks, lhp, White Sox
59.	Jonathan Sanchez, lhp, Giants
60.	Carlos Gomez, of, Mets
61.	Erick Aybar, ss, Angels
63.	Miguel Montero, c, Diamondbacks
66.	Glen Perkins, lhp, Twins
79.	Elijah Dukes, of, Devil Rays
85.	Matt Albers, rhp, Astros
87.	Brandon Morrow, rhp, Mariners
92.	Chris Iannetta, c, Rockies
98.	Micah Owings, rhp, Diamondbacks

STAY AWAY FROM TRAINERS
Various injuries have taken away from playing time and cost a bunch of players valuable development time to not only gain experience, but learn as they move through the system. Maybin’s injury isn’t serious, but even though he missed the Futures Game we were glad he made the trip—best cheerleader ever in U.S. team history.
*Indicates player out for the year
6.	Cameron Maybin, of, Tigers	Shoulder
23.	Adam Miller, rhp, Indians	Finger
27.	Jose Tabata, of, Yankees	Biceps
31.	*Scott Elbert, lhp, Dodgers	Shoulder
48.	*Dexter Fowler, of, Rockies	Wrist
57.	*Humberto Sanchez, rhp, Yankees	Elbow
69.	*Brad Lincoln, rhp, Pirates	Elbow
76.	Greg Reynolds, rhp, Rockies	Shoulder
77.	Brett Sinkbeil, rhp, Marlins	Elbow
96.	*Sean West, lhp, Marlins	Shoulder

ON THE BRINK
While Bailey has been inconsistent in the big leagues and was sent back to Triple-A—which is what scouts told BA in spring training would likely happen initially to the 20-year-old righthander—he’s still the best bet to have the most immediate impact in the big leagues this season. Evan Longoria isn’t too far away from Tampa, either, and Brandon Wood might be the most difficult prospect still in the minors to really get a handle on. Will that bat speed, balance and leverage all play at the next level? Or will Wood be a career .240/.350/.500 hitter and strike out in a third or more of his at-bats? Time will tell, but he’s too close and the tools are too loaded to think he won’t put it together. Barring injury though, we’ll have to wait until rosters expand to see. And then there is Upton, who has a better overall skill-set than the current center fielder at Chase Field, Chris Young, though their athleticism is pretty much even. “What a great problem to have,” says one scout from an American League club. “It’s like Mike Cameron against Ken Griffey Jr. You’d take Junior in a heartbeat, but you have Mike Cameron to move in a deal or you have that piece to move to another outfield spot if you want to. The Diamondbacks are in a better situation for the long-term future than anyone else—and that includes Colorado.”
5.	Homer Bailey, rhp, Reds
7.	Evan Longoria, 3b, Devil Rays
8.	Brandon Wood, 3b, Angels
9.	Justin Upton, of, Diamondbacks
14.	Jay Bruce, of, Reds
19.	Andy LaRoche, 3b, Dodgers
23.	Adam Miller, rhp, Indians
28.	Adam Jones, of, Mariners
29.	Colby Rasmus, of, Cardinals
30.	Franklin Morales, lhp, Rockies
33.	Jacoby Ellsbury, of, Red Sox
35.	Jeff Niemann, rhp, Devil Rays
41.	Carlos Carrasco, rhp, Phillies
43.	Joey Votto, 1b, Reds
46.	Ian Stewart, 3b, Rockies
51.	Clay Buchholz, rhp, Red Sox
62.	Jeff Clement, c, Mariners
67.	Daric Barton, 1b, Athletics
68.	Eric Hurley, rhp, Rangers
75.	Joba Chamberlain, rhp, Yankees
89.	Kurt Suzuki, c, Athletics

GROWING PAINS
Some guys just haven’t had great years, which has dropped their stock—sometimes significantly. One such player is Indians outfielder Trevor Crowe, who was expected to move quickly if he duplicated 2006 despite the short experiment at second base at the tail end of last year. Quite simply, Crowe hasn’t been the same player he was a year ago, as the Indians outfielder has more hand movement in his swing and continues to swing at bad breaking balls early in the count. Brewers righty Will Inman has done what scouts feared he might do—run into a wall in Double-A, giving up five homers in his first 22 innings. He’ll have to adjust to avoid just being a Class A phenom.
13.	Andrew McCutchen, of, Pirates
17.	Reid Brignac, ss, Devil Rays
18.	Carlos Gonzalez, of, Diamondbacks
40.	Chris Volstad, rhp, Marlins
80.	Jeff Samardzija, rhp, Cubs
81.	Daniel Bard, rhp, Red Sox
82.	Michael Bowden, rhp, Red Sox
83.	Ubaldo Jimenez, rhp, Rockies
91.	Will Inman, rhp, Brewers

ON THE RISE

A lot of players just need more experience before they’re Top 100 ready. That might be the case for two Double-A shortstops in Trevor Plouffe and Jed Lowrie. Lowrie missed large chunks of time last season due to injury, but his defense has been solid at short and his bat is speaking in the Eastern League. Younger and with better arm strength, Plouffe doesn’t get enough credit for being a 2004 high school draft that’s steadily moved through the system with a ton of doubles this season at New Britain. Still the best talents include the Anderson triplets, Nats outfielder Chris Marrero, Rangers third baseman Johnny Whittleman and Rockies shortstop Hector Gomez.

Brett Anderson, lhp, Diamondbacks

Bryan Anderson, c, Cardinals

Lars Anderson, 1b, Red Sox

Adrian Cardenas, 2b, Phillies

Chris Coghlan, 2b, Marlins

Tyler Colvin, of, Cubs

Hank Conger, c, Angels

Johnny Cueto, rhp, Reds

Fautino de los Santos, rhp, White Sox

Mat Gamel, 3b, Brewers

Hector Gomez, ss, Rockies

Brett Hayes, c, Marlins

Chase Headley, 3b, Padres

Wes Hodges, 3b, Indians

Chin-Lung Hu, ss, Dodgers

Brandon Hynick, rhp, Rockies

Brandon Jones, of, Braves

Jair Jurrjens, rhp, Tigers

Ian Kennedy, rhp, Yankees

Kasey Kiker, lhp, Rangers

Jed Lowrie, ss, Red Sox

Chris Marrero, of, Nationals

Matt McBride, c, Indians

Adam Ottavino, rhp, Cardinals

Francisco Pena, c, Mets

Trevor Plouffe, ss, Twins

Yohan Pino, rhp, Twins

Omar Poveda, rhp, Rangers

Angel Salome, c, Brewers

Jordan Schafer, of, Braves

Henry Sosa, rhp, Giants

Oswaldo Sosa, rhp, Twins

Hainley Statia, ss, Angels

Carlos Triunfel, ss, Mariners

Chris Valaika, ss, Reds

Angel Villalona, 3b, Giants

Johnny Whittleman, 3b, Rangers