Top 100 Pitchers By The Numbers

By Matt Eddy
March 2, 2007

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See also: Top 100 Prospects
See also: Top 100 Hitters By The Numbers

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Yankees righthander Philip Hughes

Want to know which pitcher in the Top 100 had the highest strikeout percentage? Or which hurler's two-seam fastball produced the highest percentage of outs-in-play on the ground?

For the first time in our annual Top 100 Prospects feature, we highlight some of the best--and worst--performances of the 2006 season by elite prospects. We were especially interested in the prospects who compared most favorably with the average of the entire Top 100 Prospect pool.

We considered only statistics from full-season leagues, and to be eligible a pitcher had to compile at least 48 full-season innings. Thirty-six of the 51 pitchers to crack the top 100 met the threshold, with Greg Reynolds being the only 2006 draftee to make the cut.

The averages for the Top 100 Prospects Class of 2007:

Statistic	Definition	Average
K%	Percentage of batters faced retired by strikeout	25%
BB%	Percentage of batters faced reached on walk	9%
GO%	Percentage of all outs-in-play recorded by ground out	52%
GO+SO%	Percentage of batters retired by groundout or strikeout	48%
SLG	Slugging percentage allowed	.332
OBP	On-base percentage allowed	.297
WHIP	Waks plus hits per inning pitched	1.17

HAPPY CONVERGENCE

Talent evaluators have touted Philip Hughes' stuff since he was a Yankees first-round pick in 2004, and his performance last season more than lived up to those assessments. Hughes allowed the second-lowest opponent on-base percentage (.231) and third-lowest slugging percentage (.254) among top 100 pitchers. Though his 30 percent strikeout rate ranked just fifth, he managed a 4.9 strikeout-walk ratio, which was good for third-best.

But in terms of pure dominance, consider that of all the Class A Florida State and Double-A Eastern League batters to face Hughes last season, a full 58 percent of them were retired by either strikeout or groundout, a mark unsurpassed by any other top 100 pitcher. The top five in groundouts plus strikeouts per batter faced:

Pitcher, Team	TBF	GO	SO	GO+SO%
Philip Hughes, Yankees	558	156	168	58%
Jaime Garcia, Cardinals	636	235	131	58%
Yovani Gallado, Brewers	610	144	188	54%
Adam Miller, Indians	656	188	161	53%
Nick Adenhart, Angels	642	196	145	53%

LUCKY LEFTIES?

Scan the bottom of the walk percentage list and you'll find three young lefthanders: Scott Elbert, Donald Veal and Franklin Morales. How did these pitchers succeed while handing out so many free passes? They were tough to hit (or hit hard), and they had three of the highest strikeout totals in the minors. It wasn't efficient, but it was effective for these three in 2006:

Pitcher, Team	BB%	K%	GO%	AVG	SLG
Scott Elbert, Dodgers	14%	28%	46%	.190	.310
Donald Veal, Cubs	13%	28%	42%	.175	.253
Franklin Morales, Rockies	13%	27%	61%	.223	.340

Though the three pitchers had similar seasons, Morales' performance was the most impressive when you consider that he is the youngest of the trio, had the highest groundout percentage and pitched in the Cal League, where batters hit a composite .275/.350/.414 in 2006.

ALWAYS IN COMMAND

No top 100 pitcher (and few other pitchers in the minors) commanded the strike zone quite like Kevin Slowey. The Twins righthander posted the lowest walk rate (4 percent) of anyone in the top 100 and combined it with an above-average strikeout rate (26 percent) to lead all pitchers with 6.9 strikeouts-walks. His .226 opponent on-base percentage also was tops, and he finished third with a 1.88 ERA. The top five K-BB ratios:

Pitcher, Team	K	BB	K-BB
Kevin Slowey, Twins	151	22	6.9
Will Inman, Brewers	134	24	5.6
Philip Hughes, Yankees	168	34	4.9
Matt Garza, Twins	154	32	4.8
Clay Buchholz, Red Sox	140	33	4.2

SMALL ONLY IN STATURE

So which pitcher had the highest strikeout rate? It wasn't Hughes or Homer Bailey or minor league strikeout leader Yovani Gallardo. It was Giants lefty Jonathan Sanchez. Though he pitched just 55 minor league innings, Sanchez struck out 35 percent of batters he faced. The 6-foot-2, 165-pound Sanchez also allowed a lower opponent average (.148) and slugging percentage (.203) than anyone on the list. The top strikeout artists:

Pitcher, Team	TBF	K	K%
Jonathan Sanchez, Giants	213	74	35%
Will Inman, Brewers	432	134	31%
Yovani Gallardo, Brewers	610	188	31%
Jacob McGee, Devil Rays	561	171	30%
Philip Hughes, Yankees	558	168	30%

GROUND TO A HALT

A pitcher's ability to induce groundballs can be an underrated skill. Consider that of the top 10 finishers in groundout percentage, seven ranked as their organization's top pitching prospect. With 73 percent of his outs-in-play coming by ground ball, Cardinals lefthander Jaime Garcia held a slim advantage over Marlins righthander Chris Volstad, while nobody else was particularly close.

Pitcher, Team	GO	FO	GO%
Jaime Garcia, Marlins	235	87	73%
Chris Volstad, Marlins	236	101	70%
Nick Adenhart, Angels	196	124	61%
Greg Reynolds, Rockies	66	42	61%
Adam Miller, Indians	188	120	61%
Franklin Morales, Rockies	160	104	61%
Matt Albers, Astros	172	117	60%
Philip Hughes, Yankees	156	110	59%
Michael Bowden, Red Sox	125	90	58%
Mike Pelfrey, Mets	93	70	57%

One the flip side, these top 100 pitchers recorded the highest percentage of outs-in-play in the air:

Pitcher, Team	GO	FO	GO%
Glen Perkins, Twins	74	149	33%
Brandon Erbe, Orioles	79	120	40%
Troy Patton, Astros	119	173	41%
Kevin Slowey, Twins	117	170	41%
Will Inman, Brewers	79	112	41%

EXTENUATING CIRCUMSTANCES

While lefthander John Danks allowed the highest slugging percentage (.455) and had the highest home run rate (4 percent) among top 100 pitchers, he had a few things working in his favor. Namely, his strikeout (25 percent) and walk (9 percent) rates were average or a tick above the top 100 field.

It also doesn't hurt that Danks was one of the youngest pitchers to reach Triple-A in 2006, and that he spent the entire season in two of the toughest environments for pitchers in the minors, the Texas and Pacific Coast leagues. An offseason trade from the Rangers to the White Sox--and the International League--could be just what the doctor ordered for Danks.

ADDITIONAL MOTIVATION

It's no exaggeration to say Nationals righthander Collin Balester had the worst season of any top 100 pitcher in 2006. He comfortably trailed the pack in ERA (4.72), WHIP (1.46), strikeouts-walks (1.6), groundout plus strikeout percentage (39 percent) and on-base percentage (.346). His slugging percentage (.417) and strikeout rate (16 percent) were also among the worst of the group, doubly bad considering that he worked in two pitchers' leagues (Carolina, Eastern).