Top 100 Hitters By The Numbers
See also: Top 100 Prospects
See also: Top 100 Pitchers By The Numbers
Just as we did with the pitchers, we’ve highlighted some of the more interesting statistical achievements in 2006 by the hitters in our Top 100 Prospects. Again, we’re considering stats compiled in full-season leagues only.
The cutoff is 144 plate appearances, and 45 of 49 batters made the cut, with Twins outfielder Chris Parmelee the only player to appear in a full-season league not to make it.
So while Blue Jays outfielder Travis Snider and Orioles third baseman Bill Rowell tore up the short-season Appalachian League, they'll have to wait until next year to figure into these evaluations.
The average Top 100 Prospect in this study hit .297/.373/.482 in 2006. And the figures listed below refer to the average of all players in the sample, not the minor league averages:
It can be easy to fixate on a minor leaguer’s walk percentage or on-base percentage, but sometimes a player’s ability to drive the ball--perhaps the most valuable tool--is overlooked. Raw extra-base-hit percentage will favor players in the extreme hitters’ environments, so we’ll present all the top 100 batters who exceeded the average by roughly one standard of deviation:
Of course, raw power doesn’t have as much in-game impact if a player struggles to put the ball in play. The top contact hitters among our top 100:
Sacrifice flies are included because, while they don’t count as official at-bats, the batter has made productive contact. For comparison’s sake, the bottom five:
Multiplying extra-base hit by contact percentage will give us a rough idea which Top 100 Prospects showed the most power efficiency in 2006:
Power-speed number rewards high raw totals in both home runs and stolen bases, which makes it fun but not especially instructive. But it still has its place, especially after Alfonso Soriano attained the fourth 40-40 season in big league history in 2006.
No Top 100 Prospect went 40-40, of course, but Alex Gordon, Ryan Braun and Joey Votto did go 20-20. If none of those guys seemed obvious, wait until you see the leader:
Power-speed number is figured as two times home runs times stolen bases divided by home runs plus stolen bases.
While the hit and power tools are most important, speed boosts a player’s total offensive package. Stolen bases are an indicator of speed, but so too are triples, runs (as a percentage of times on base) and avoiding the double play. Here’s a look at the fastest Top 100 Prospects using a simplified version of Bill James’ ingenious speed score:
Home runs are subtracted from the runs totals above to highlight the cases where the player had to use speed and baserunning acumen to score. Time on base (TOB) applies the same principle by not counting a home run as a time on base. Looking at the list from the bottom:
A player who can control the strike zone can often make a smooth transition to major league pitching. Here are the players with the top batting eyes in our top 100, as measured by (unintentional) walk-strikeout ratio:
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PrintSee also: Top 100 Prospects
See also: Top 100 Pitchers By The Numbers
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| Diamondbacks infielder Alberto Callaspo |
The cutoff is 144 plate appearances, and 45 of 49 batters made the cut, with Twins outfielder Chris Parmelee the only player to appear in a full-season league not to make it.
So while Blue Jays outfielder Travis Snider and Orioles third baseman Bill Rowell tore up the short-season Appalachian League, they'll have to wait until next year to figure into these evaluations.
The average Top 100 Prospect in this study hit .297/.373/.482 in 2006. And the figures listed below refer to the average of all players in the sample, not the minor league averages:
| Statistic | Definition | Average |
| CT% | Rate of contact (plus sacrifice flies) per at-bat | 80% |
| BB% | Percentage of walks per plate appearance | 9% |
| XBH% | Percentage of extra-base hits per plate appearance | 10% |
| SPD | Speed score (explained below) | 27 |
| PSN | Power-speed number (explained below) | 12 |
| LEARNING TO DRIVE |
It can be easy to fixate on a minor leaguer’s walk percentage or on-base percentage, but sometimes a player’s ability to drive the ball--perhaps the most valuable tool--is overlooked. Raw extra-base-hit percentage will favor players in the extreme hitters’ environments, so we’ll present all the top 100 batters who exceeded the average by roughly one standard of deviation:
| Player, Team | XBH | PA | XBH% |
| Brandon Wood, Angels | 71 | 522 | 14% |
| Travis Buck, Athletics | 50 | 383 | 13% |
| Carlos Gonzalez, Diamondbacks | 68 | 521 | 13% |
| Jay Bruce, Reds | 63 | 498 | 13% |
| Chris Young, Diamondbacks | 57 | 466 | 12% |
| Alex Gordon, Royals | 69 | 577 | 12% |
| Joey Votto, Reds | 70 | 590 | 12% |
| Evan Longoria, Devil Rays | 27 | 237 | 11% |
| Fernando Martinez, Mets | 27 | 237 | 11% |
| Hunter Pence, Astros | 67 | 592 | 11% |
| CONTACT NEGOTIATIONS |
Of course, raw power doesn’t have as much in-game impact if a player struggles to put the ball in play. The top contact hitters among our top 100:
| Player, Team | AB | SO | SF | CT% |
| Alberto Callaspo, Diamondbacks | 490 | 27 | 4 | 95% |
| James Loney, Dodgers | 366 | 34 | 6 | 91% |
| Erick Aybar, Angels | 339 | 36 | 4 | 90% |
| Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox | 442 | 53 | 2 | 88% |
| Kurt Suzuki, Athletics | 376 | 50 | 1 | 87% |
Sacrifice flies are included because, while they don’t count as official at-bats, the batter has made productive contact. For comparison’s sake, the bottom five:
| Player, Team | AB | SO | SF | CT% |
| Brandon Wood, Angels | 453 | 149 | 8 | 68% |
| Cameron Maybin, Tigers | 385 | 116 | 5 | 70% |
| Josh Fields, White Sox | 462 | 136 | 3 | 71% |
| Carlos Gonzalez, Diamondbacks | 464 | 116 | 9 | 75% |
| Brian Barton, Indians | 446 | 109 | 8 | 76% |
| BALANCING ACT |
Multiplying extra-base hit by contact percentage will give us a rough idea which Top 100 Prospects showed the most power efficiency in 2006:
| Player, Team | XBH% | CT% | XBH*CT |
| Travis Buck, Athletics | 13% | 83% | .109 |
| Chris Young, Diamondbacks | 12% | 83% | .101 |
| Carlos Gonzalez, Diamondbacks | 13% | 75% | .099 |
| Jay Bruce, Reds | 13% | 76% | .097 |
| James Loney, Dodgers | 11% | 91% | .096 |
| SELECT COMPANY |
Power-speed number rewards high raw totals in both home runs and stolen bases, which makes it fun but not especially instructive. But it still has its place, especially after Alfonso Soriano attained the fourth 40-40 season in big league history in 2006.
No Top 100 Prospect went 40-40, of course, but Alex Gordon, Ryan Braun and Joey Votto did go 20-20. If none of those guys seemed obvious, wait until you see the leader:
| Player, Team | HR | SB | PSN |
| Brian Barton, Indians | 19 | 41 | 26 |
| Alex Gordon, Royals | 29 | 22 | 25 |
| Ryan Braun, Brewers | 22 | 26 | 24 |
| Joey Votto, Reds | 22 | 24 | 23 |
| Josh Fields, White Sox | 19 | 28 | 23 |
| RACING TO RECOGNITION |
While the hit and power tools are most important, speed boosts a player’s total offensive package. Stolen bases are an indicator of speed, but so too are triples, runs (as a percentage of times on base) and avoiding the double play. Here’s a look at the fastest Top 100 Prospects using a simplified version of Bill James’ ingenious speed score:
| Player, Team | SB | CS | 3B | R | DP | TOB | SPD |
| Brent Lillibridge, Braves | 53 | 13 | 8 | 93 | 8 | 228 | 41.1 |
| Dexter Fowler, Rockies | 43 | 23 | 6 | 84 | 8 | 162 | 40.9 |
| Carlos Gomez, Mets | 41 | 9 | 8 | 46 | 6 | 161 | 40.6 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox | 41 | 17 | 8 | 57 | 6 | 185 | 37.7 |
| Erick Aybar, Angels | 32 | 18 | 3 | 57 | 5 | 114 | 37.6 |
Home runs are subtracted from the runs totals above to highlight the cases where the player had to use speed and baserunning acumen to score. Time on base (TOB) applies the same principle by not counting a home run as a time on base. Looking at the list from the bottom:
| Player, Team | SB | CS | 3B | R | DP | TOB | SPD |
| Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Braves | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 124 | 8.9 |
| Billy Butler, Royals | 1 | 0 | 1 | 67 | 25 | 192 | 8.9 |
| Jeff Clement, Mariners | 0 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 9 | 108 | 9.3 |
| Miguel Montero, D’backs | 1 | 4 | 0 | 28 | 7 | 166 | 9.9 |
| Adam Lind, Blue Jays | 3 | 1 | 0 | 39 | 7 | 179 | 14.9 |
| THE EYES HAVE IT |
A player who can control the strike zone can often make a smooth transition to major league pitching. Here are the players with the top batting eyes in our top 100, as measured by (unintentional) walk-strikeout ratio:
| Player, Team | BB | SO | BB-SO |
| Alberto Callaspo, Diamondbacks | 53 | 27 | 2.0 |
| Daric Barton, Athletics | 32 | 26 | 1.2 |
| Kurt Suzuki, Athletics | 57 | 50 | 1.1 |
| Andy LaRoche, Dodgers | 65 | 64 | 1.0 |
| Trevor Crowe, Indians | 67 | 71 | 0.9 |
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