By Jim Shonerd
January 25, 2012
Baseball America's Top 10 Prospects lists are based on projections of a player's long-term worth after discussions with scouting and player-development personnel. All players who haven't exceeded the major league rookie standards of 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched (without regard to service time) are eligible. Ages are as of April 1, 2011.
This time, the window didn't close on the Athletics. It never opened.
Oakland's success in the early 2000s, which gave rise to the best-seller "Moneyball," was led by a homegrown trio of aces in Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito. With those three on board, the A's made the playoffs every season from 2000-03. The window started to close when Hudson and Mulder were traded after the 2004 season, and Oakland has made the postseason only once since, in 2006, which was also its last winning season.
Following the free-agent departure of Zito after 2006 and then Dan Haren (acquired in the Mulder deal) after 2007, the A's tried to retool their pitching staff and stockpile talent for another run at contention. But by the time "Moneyball" became a movie in 2011, Oakland had become an afterthought.
With a young staff led by Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill, the A's led the AL in ERA in 2010. They finished third in 2011 despite losing Anderson and Dallas Braden for most of the season with injuries. Gio Gonzalez blossomed into an all-star and won 16 games, yet Oakland finished 74-88 and 22 games behind the Rangers. Manager Bob Geren lost his job in June and was replaced by Bob Melvin.
Continuing a familiar theme, the team was done in by a woeful offense. Trade acquisitions Chris Carter (No. 1 on this list two years ago) and Michael Taylor were expected to form the heart of the lineup by 2011, but neither has been able to break through. The A's did have 2008 first-round pick Jemile Weeks reach the majors in June and lead the team in hitting (.303), but the club ranked 12th in the AL in both scoring and homers and was unable to capitalize on its pitching.
Continued uncertainty about the team's future home further complicates its outlook. The A's still hope to move to a new ballpark in San Jose in 2014 or 2015, but they must negotiate an agreement with the Giants, who control the San Jose territory.
Such a move would boost the A's resources, but in the short term GM Billy Beane saw the cost of his pitching staff beginning to rise while his offense remained unable to fuel a contender. It was time to start over—again.
So in December, Beane traded Cahill, Gio Gonzalez and Andrew Bailey, his club's only all-stars in the last three seasons. Those deals brought back big league-ready outfielder Josh Reddick and nine prospects, including five members of this Top 10 list: righthanders Jarrod Parker, Brad Peacock and A.J. Cole, catcher Derek Norris and lefty Tom Milone. Parker, Peacock, Milone, outfielder Collin Cowgill and reliever Ryan Cook all should join Reddick on the 2012 big league roster.
Oakland will have to do a better job of signing and developing talent. The A's landed a potential frontline arm by taking Sonny Gray with the 18th overall pick in June, yet spent just $3.1 million overall on their 2011 draft class, the third-lowest figure in baseball. They also haven't been as active in Latin America after getting burned by Dominican righthander Michael Ynoa, who signed for a club-record $4.25 million in 2008 but rarely has been healthy since.
Background: The Athletics have had one of the American League's best young pitching staffs in recent years. But the team wasn't on track to contend before those arms started getting expensive, so Oakland's front office took the long view after the 2011 season and sought to cash in on some of its coveted pitchers. In December, the A's traded homegrown all-star Trevor Cahill and Craig Breslow to the Diamondbacks for prospects Parker, Collin Cowgill and Ryan Cook. The ninth overall pick in the 2007 draft, Parker signed for $2.1 million. After not facing stiff competition in high school, he'd burst onto the radar in the summer of 2006, when he helped Team USA earn a sliver medal at the World Junior Championship. He breezed through the lower minors and reached Double-A as a 20-year-old early in his second pro season in 2009. Elbow tightness sidelined him that July, shortly after he pitched in the Futures Game. After rest and rehab didn't solve the problem, Parker had Tommy John surgery in October 2009 and missed the entire 2010 season. He came back strong last year, making 26 starts in Double-A and ranking second in the Southern League in opponent average (.236) and fifth in ERA (3.79). He was excellent in the SL playoffs, allowing two runs in two starts as Mobile won the championship. Called up to Arizona in September, he made his major league debut with 5 2/3 scoreless innings against the Dodgers on Sept. 27. He and earned a spot on the Diamondbacks' postseason roster and pitched one inning in the National League Division Series.
Scouting Report: Parker has streamlined mechanics that allow him to get excellent velocity out of a smaller frame. The ball jumps out of his hand and he was able to touch the upper 90s before his surgery. These days, he usually works in the mid-90s and peaks at 96 mph with his four-seam fastball. He developed his two-seamer into a real weapon in the second half of last season, operating in the low 90s with good sink. Parker gets swings and misses with a slider and a changeup, both of which he throws at 81-86 mph. His slider rated as a well above-average offering with tilt and depth before he got hurt, though it's more of a plus pitch now. He has very good touch with his changeup, a solid offering with a chance to get better. He also can mix in an average curveball that's more of a show-me pitch. Parker is an outstanding athlete who regained his easy delivery after his elbow reconstruction. He works with a quick tempo, and scouts noticed he was more mature on the mound last season.
The Future: Parker has true frontline-starter potential and isn't far away from reaching it. The A's aren't afraid to install talented youngsters in their big league rotation, and after getting through last season healthy, he'll get the opportunity to earn a starting job in spring training. If Oakland continues to deal more of their established arms, Parker and 2011 first-rounder Sonny Gray may headline their rotation of the future. In an ideal world, Parker and Gray will hit their stride as the A's move into a new ballpark, wherever and whenever that might happen.
| '08 |
South Bend (LoA) |
12 |
5 |
3.44 |
24 |
24 |
0 |
118 |
113 |
56 |
45 |
8 |
33 |
117 |
.242 |
| '09 |
Visalia (HiA) |
1 |
0 |
0.95 |
4 |
4 |
0 |
19 |
12 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
4 |
21 |
.174 |
| '09 |
Mobile (AA) |
4 |
6 |
3.68 |
16 |
16 |
0 |
78 |
82 |
35 |
32 |
2 |
34 |
74 |
.259 |
| '11 |
Mobile (AA) |
11 |
8 |
3.79 |
26 |
26 |
0 |
131 |
112 |
61 |
55 |
7 |
55 |
112 |
.222 |
| '11 |
Arizona (MAJ) |
0 |
0 |
0.00 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
6 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
.190 |
Background: More of a shortstop in high school, Peacock made gradual progress as a pitcher before breaking out in 2011. He won Double-A Eastern League pitcher of the year honors and finished with impressive stints in Triple-A and the majors. The Nationals traded him, righthander A.J. Cole, catcher Derek Norris and lefty Tom Milone to get Gio Gonzalez from the A's in December.
Scouting Report: Peacock pitches comfortably at 91-94 mph and runs his fastball up to 97 at times. He worked hard last year to keep his front shoulder closed while maintaining his balance and alignment, which led to improved fastball command and deception. He pitches heavily off his four-seamer, which has late hop. He has another swing-and-miss pitch in his sharp 12-to-6 curveball, though it still needs more consistency. He has gained significant confidence in his low-80s changeup, throwing it with good arm speed and fade, but still gets too firm at times. Peacock is a great athlete who fields his position well.
The Future: Peacock will compete for a spot in Oakland's ravaged rotation in spring training. He could become a No. 2 starter if everything clicks.
| '07 |
Nationals (R) |
1 |
1 |
3.89 |
13 |
7 |
0 |
39 |
38 |
23 |
17 |
1 |
15 |
34 |
.244 |
| '08 |
Hagerstown (LoA) |
0 |
5 |
9.09 |
8 |
8 |
0 |
34 |
38 |
38 |
34 |
8 |
21 |
23 |
.273 |
| '08 |
Vermont (SS) |
4 |
7 |
3.12 |
14 |
14 |
0 |
75 |
67 |
38 |
26 |
3 |
27 |
54 |
.229 |
| '09 |
Hagerstown (LoA) |
5 |
8 |
4.05 |
19 |
17 |
0 |
100 |
104 |
49 |
45 |
10 |
32 |
77 |
.257 |
| '09 |
Potomac (HiA) |
3 |
3 |
4.34 |
8 |
7 |
0 |
48 |
46 |
26 |
23 |
4 |
10 |
27 |
.243 |
| '10 |
Potomac (HiA) |
4 |
9 |
4.44 |
19 |
18 |
0 |
103 |
109 |
59 |
51 |
11 |
25 |
118 |
.260 |
| '10 |
Harrisburg (AA) |
2 |
2 |
4.66 |
7 |
7 |
0 |
39 |
33 |
21 |
20 |
5 |
22 |
30 |
.221 |
| '11 |
Harrisburg (AA) |
10 |
2 |
2.01 |
16 |
14 |
0 |
99 |
62 |
25 |
22 |
4 |
23 |
129 |
.173 |
| '11 |
Syracuse (AAA) |
5 |
1 |
3.19 |
9 |
9 |
0 |
48 |
36 |
18 |
17 |
5 |
24 |
48 |
.200 |
| '11 |
Washington (MAJ) |
2 |
0 |
0.75 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
12 |
7 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
6 |
4 |
.163 |
Background: Gray could've been a top-two-rounds pick coming out of high school in 2008, but an ankle injury and a Vanderbilt commitment dropped him to the Cubs in the 27th round. He went on to lead Vanderbilt to its first-ever College World Series in 2011 and became the third recent Commodores ace to become a first-rounder. Following in the footsteps of David Price (2007) and Mike Minor (2009), Gray went 18th overall last June and signed for $1.54 million.
Scouting Report: Gray is undersized but has the arsenal to make up for it. He gets sink and run on his 90-94 mph fastball, can reach back and hit 97 and has a feel for moving it around the strike zone. He has a second plus pitch in his curveball, which rated as the best in the 2011 draft. It has late, sharp 1-to-7 break, and he'll throw it in any count. Gray's changeup lags behind his other offerings, but it has some sink. He tended to spin off a bit in his delivery, but the A's got him to stay more on line to the plate during instructional league. They love his competitiveness and pitching IQ.
The Future: Gray dominated at Double-A Midland in his brief pro debut, and he'll likely open his first full pro season there. He has a chance to pitch his way to Oakland by season's end, and he eventually could be a No. 2 starter in the big leagues.
| '11 |
Athletics (R) |
0 |
1 |
4.50 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
.400 |
| '11 |
Midland (AA) |
1 |
0 |
0.45 |
5 |
5 |
0 |
20 |
15 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
6 |
18 |
.200 |
Background: After signing with the Nationals for a fourth round-record $2 million bonus in August 2010, Cole pitched just one inning in his pro debut. An illness caused him to lose weight before the start of spring training in 2011, and Washington cautiously kept him in extended spring training until mid-May. He held his own against older competition in the South Atlantic League and got stronger as the year went on before joining the A's in the Gio Gonzalez trade in December.
Scouting Report: By the end of the summer, Cole's fastball ranged from 90-98 mph and sat in the mid-90s. He has no fear of attacking hitters with his fastball, and he did a better job commanding the pitch down in the zone as the season progressed. Early on, he tended to rush his delivery, but it became more compact, repeatable and rhythmic, helping him generate a good downward plane. Cole throws a spike curveball as a chase pitch and is getting better at throwing it for strikes, and he's going to work on a true curve that will be easier to keep in the zone. He's still learning to trust his changeup.
The Future: Cole is still getting stronger physically and has frontline-starter upside, but he'll need to refine his secondary stuff. Oakland will be patient and figures to send him to high Class A Stockton in 2012.
| '10 |
Vermont (SS) |
0 |
0 |
0.00 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
.250 |
| '11 |
Hagerstown (LoA) |
4 |
7 |
4.04 |
20 |
18 |
0 |
89 |
87 |
47 |
40 |
6 |
24 |
108 |
.246 |
Background: Choice set Texas-Arlington's career home run record at 34 and led NCAA Division I with 76 walks in 2010, setting the stage for going 10th overall in the draft that June. Signed for $2 million, he has kept on rolling. In his first full year in pro ball, he led the high Class A California League with 30 homers and then hit .318/.423/.667 with six more longballs in the Arizona Fall League.
Scouting Report: Choice has leverage in his swing and electrifying bat speed, giving him light-tower power to all fields. He struggles at times with breaking pitches, but his strikeout rate did drop as the 2011 season went on. The A's have worked to eliminate some moving parts in his swing, particularly in his lower half. He also has gotten better at pitch recognition and selection. Choice was bothered by a hamstring problem during the season, inhibiting his solid speed, but he can take an extra base and has a chance to stick in center field. He has an average arm and has improved his jumps on balls.
The Future: Choice will be given every opportunity to continue playing center field as he advances, with Double-A his next stop. Where he eventually settles in the majors will be dictated by Oakland's needs, and he'll easily have the home run power necessary to play a corner.
| '10 |
Athletics (R) |
7 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
.000 |
.222 |
.000 |
| '10 |
Vancouver (SS) |
102 |
20 |
29 |
10 |
2 |
7 |
26 |
15 |
43 |
6 |
1 |
.284 |
.388 |
.627 |
| '11 |
Stockton (HiA) |
467 |
79 |
133 |
28 |
1 |
30 |
82 |
61 |
134 |
9 |
5 |
.285 |
.376 |
.542 |
Background: Signed for $2.75 million as the 13th overall pick in the 2009 draft, Green has hit .304/.353/.463 as a pro and recovered from a slow start last year. He won MVP honors at the 2011 Futures Game but the biggest news of his season came a week later, when the A's shifted him from shortstop to center field. Though he had essentially no outfield experience, the move was the quickest way to get his bat to the majors.
Scouting Report: Green is a natural hitter with a smooth, wristy swing. His power dropped off in 2011, so the A's had him spread out his stance and gave him a firm base when he went to the Arizona Fall League. He responded by hitting five homers and slugging .551 in 26 AFL games. Green had to learn his new position on the fly, though he has the athleticism to handle center field and shows solid range. His average arm was a question mark at shortstop but not an issue in center field. He's working to stretch his arm out to make the longer throws required there.
The Future: Green got a taste of Triple-A at the end of last season, when he appeared in seven playoff games for Sacramento and hit .296, and he'll be back there to open 2012. While his bat may be his lone plus tool, it will get him to the big leagues. He could crash the Oakland outfield before the end of the season.
| '09 |
Stockton (HiA) |
19 |
2 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
.316 |
.350 |
.368 |
| '10 |
Stockton (HiA) |
548 |
107 |
174 |
39 |
6 |
20 |
87 |
38 |
117 |
9 |
5 |
.318 |
.363 |
.520 |
| '11 |
Midland (AA) |
530 |
76 |
154 |
33 |
1 |
9 |
62 |
39 |
119 |
6 |
8 |
.291 |
.343 |
.408 |
Background: Norris long has been regarded as a gifted offensive player, but early in his pro career there were questions about the converted third baseman's ability to catch. He answered them by making strides defensively in Double-A in 2011, when he also slugged 20 homers but also hit .210. The A's added him in December as part of the Gio Gonzalez trade with the Nationals.
Scouting Report: Despite his low batting averages and high strikeout totals, Norris has excellent pitch recognition. When he struggles, he jumps to his front side too early and his bat doesn't stay in the hitting zone. He has quick hands and a compact stroke that generates plus power from line to line, though he's at his best when he's driving the ball to right-center. Norris' throwing, receiving, footwork, blocking and game-calling all have improved significantly. He still needs to polish his receiving a bit more, but his solid arm helped him throw out an Eastern League-high 40 percent of basestealers. A great athlete for a catcher, he has good speed underway and isn't afraid to steal bases.
The Future: Norris now looks likely to stick behind the plate as a big leaguer, and his offensive ability gives him a chance to be an all-star. He'll spend 2012 in Triple-A and then make a run at Kurt Suzuki's job.
| '07 |
Nationals (R) |
123 |
16 |
25 |
6 |
2 |
4 |
15 |
25 |
38 |
2 |
1 |
.203 |
.344 |
.382 |
| '08 |
Vermont (SS) |
227 |
42 |
63 |
12 |
0 |
10 |
38 |
63 |
56 |
11 |
9 |
.278 |
.444 |
.463 |
| '09 |
Hagerstown (LoA) |
437 |
78 |
125 |
30 |
0 |
23 |
84 |
90 |
116 |
6 |
3 |
.286 |
.413 |
.513 |
| '10 |
Potomac (HiA) |
298 |
67 |
70 |
19 |
0 |
12 |
49 |
89 |
94 |
6 |
3 |
.235 |
.419 |
.419 |
| '11 |
Harrisburg (AA) |
334 |
75 |
70 |
17 |
1 |
20 |
46 |
77 |
117 |
13 |
4 |
.210 |
.367 |
.446 |
Background: Mitchell hit .362 and stole 14 bases in 37 games at short-season Vancouver in his 2006 pro debut, but he rarely played like that again during the next four years. He began figuring things out in 2010 before exploding last year, when he batted .332/.430/.530, ranking fifth in the minors in on-base percentage and earning a spot on Oakland's 40-man roster. He credits Hall of Famer Rickey Henderson for helping him relax and understand the leadoff man's role.
Scouting Report: Mitchell has always had electric tools, highlighted by his plus-plus speed. He has a discerning eye at the plate and a short, quick swing. While he won't hit many home runs, he produces line drives to all fields. He has become more confident looking for pitches to drive rather than just trying to make contact. Mitchell still is learning to maximize his speed on the bases. He covers plenty of ground in center field and has an average, accurate arm.
The Future: After playing through a sore knee all year, Mitchell had offseason surgery to repair a torn meniscus. The six-month rehab may keep him out of spring training, where he would have competed for an outfield job in Oakland. It's only expected to be a short-term setback, however, and he should make his big league debut in 2012.
| '06 |
Vancouver (SS) |
138 |
23 |
50 |
7 |
2 |
3 |
23 |
22 |
27 |
14 |
6 |
.362 |
.460 |
.507 |
| '07 |
Kane County (LoA) |
431 |
79 |
124 |
20 |
5 |
8 |
58 |
74 |
115 |
24 |
8 |
.288 |
.390 |
.413 |
| '08 |
Stockton (HiA) |
422 |
55 |
103 |
20 |
3 |
10 |
49 |
54 |
116 |
23 |
6 |
.244 |
.338 |
.377 |
| '09 |
Stockton (HiA) |
450 |
63 |
111 |
15 |
6 |
3 |
34 |
73 |
128 |
17 |
10 |
.247 |
.350 |
.327 |
| '10 |
Stockton (HiA) |
304 |
68 |
94 |
21 |
7 |
10 |
32 |
51 |
86 |
21 |
9 |
.309 |
.413 |
.523 |
| '10 |
Sacramento (AAA) |
11 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
.182 |
.250 |
.273 |
| '10 |
Midland (AA) |
121 |
16 |
27 |
3 |
3 |
0 |
11 |
19 |
41 |
2 |
6 |
.223 |
.331 |
.298 |
| '11 |
Midland (AA) |
304 |
67 |
108 |
15 |
13 |
10 |
50 |
54 |
65 |
14 |
13 |
.355 |
.453 |
.589 |
| '11 |
Sacramento (AAA) |
232 |
48 |
70 |
14 |
3 |
5 |
28 |
39 |
47 |
13 |
5 |
.302 |
.401 |
.453 |
Background: Taylor came to the A's after the 2009 season in a deal with the Blue Jays for Brett Wallace, an offshoot of the trade that sent Roy Halladay to the Phillies for Taylor, Travis d'Arnaud and Kyle Drabek. After hitting just six homers in his first season in the Oakland system, Taylor hit 16 homers in Triple-A in 2011 to earn a September callup.
Scouting Report: Taylor played at Stanford, where hitters are groomed to hit to all fields, even at the expense of power. Five years later, the A's still are trying to get him to be more aggressive about driving pitches. He has the bat speed and strength to hit balls over the fence in any direction. Oakland also has worked on putting him into a better position to hit, in particular getting his front foot down sooner. He controls the strike zone well. Taylor saw action in center field as recently as 2010, but he's an average runner who fits better in right field. His arm is slightly above average.
The Future: The A's are rebuilding their big league outfield after David DeJesus and Josh Willingham left as free agents. That seemingly gave Taylor a wide-open opportunity, but Oakland than acquired Josh Reddick and Seth Smith in trades. If Taylor can realize his power potential, it would give a much-needed boost to the A's weak offense.
| '07 |
Williamsport (SS) |
233 |
30 |
53 |
14 |
0 |
6 |
33 |
23 |
53 |
8 |
2 |
.227 |
.300 |
.365 |
| '08 |
Lakewood (LoA) |
249 |
40 |
90 |
12 |
3 |
10 |
50 |
31 |
43 |
10 |
3 |
.361 |
.441 |
.554 |
| '08 |
Clearwater (HiA) |
243 |
36 |
80 |
27 |
1 |
9 |
38 |
19 |
46 |
5 |
6 |
.329 |
.380 |
.560 |
| '09 |
Reading (AA) |
318 |
59 |
106 |
22 |
4 |
15 |
65 |
35 |
51 |
18 |
4 |
.333 |
.408 |
.569 |
| '09 |
Lehigh Valley (AAA) |
110 |
15 |
31 |
6 |
1 |
5 |
19 |
13 |
19 |
3 |
1 |
.282 |
.359 |
.491 |
| '10 |
Sacramento (AAA) |
464 |
79 |
126 |
26 |
6 |
6 |
78 |
51 |
92 |
16 |
5 |
.272 |
.348 |
.392 |
| '11 |
Sacramento (AAA) |
349 |
51 |
95 |
16 |
0 |
16 |
64 |
46 |
80 |
14 |
5 |
.272 |
.360 |
.456 |
| '11 |
Oakland (MAJ) |
30 |
4 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
5 |
11 |
0 |
0 |
.200 |
.314 |
.300 |
Background: Milone lacks standout physical tools , but he has proven himself at every level and forced his way to the big leagues by the end of 2011. The former 10th-round pick carved up the Triple-A International League, ranking second with 155 strikeouts and first in walks per nine innings (1.0). The A's picked him up as part of the package from the Nationals for Gio Gonzalez in December.
Scouting Report: Milone's greatest strength is his superb control and command. His fastball ranges from 86-91 mph, but it plays up because of the deception in his herky-jerky delivery and his ability to spot it wherever he wants. His above-average changeup is his out pitch against lefties and righties alike thanks to his excellent arm speed, good sink and tailing action. He throws his fringy curveball at varying depths and speeds, using it for a chase pitch or an early strike. He also mixes in a solid cutter. Milone has outstanding poise and the ability to make adjustments on the fly. He fields his position well.
The Future: Milone's ceiling is limited to that of a back-of-the-rotation big league starter, but he held his own in five big league starts with Washington. He'll get the opportunity to win a spot in Oakland's rotation during spring training.
| '08 |
Vermont (SS) |
1 |
3 |
4.57 |
6 |
3 |
0 |
22 |
27 |
12 |
11 |
4 |
3 |
22 |
.293 |
| '08 |
Hagerstown (LoA) |
0 |
3 |
2.89 |
7 |
7 |
0 |
37 |
36 |
16 |
12 |
0 |
6 |
27 |
.243 |
| '09 |
Potomac (HiA) |
12 |
5 |
2.91 |
27 |
25 |
0 |
151 |
144 |
57 |
49 |
9 |
36 |
106 |
.241 |
| '10 |
Harrisburg (AA) |
12 |
5 |
2.85 |
27 |
27 |
0 |
158 |
161 |
57 |
50 |
10 |
23 |
155 |
.254 |
| '11 |
Syracuse (AAA) |
12 |
6 |
3.22 |
24 |
24 |
0 |
148 |
137 |
55 |
53 |
9 |
16 |
155 |
.235 |
| '11 |
Washington (MAJ) |
1 |
0 |
3.81 |
5 |
5 |
0 |
26 |
28 |
11 |
11 |
2 |
4 |
15 |
.264 |