2012 San Diego Padres Top 10 Prospects With Scouting Reports




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Baseball America's Top 10 Prospects lists are based on projections of a player's long-term worth after discussions with scouting and player-development personnel. All players who haven't exceeded the major league rookie standards of 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched (without regard to service time) are eligible. Ages are as of April 1, 2011.

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The two-year reign of Jed Hoyer as Padres general manager ended abruptly in November when he left to take the same position with the Cubs, taking vice president of scouting and player development Jason McLeod with him. Hoyer and McLeod reunited with Chicago's new president of baseball operations Theo Epstein, for whom they served as top lieutenants with the Red Sox.

Josh Byrnes, yet another former Epstein disciple, replaced Hoyer in San Diego. He joined the Padres following the 2010 season after being fired as Diamondbacks GM that July. Byrnes has an extensive professional history with San Diego CEO Jeff Moorad, who bought the club early in 2009, and so do other key members of the reconstituted front office.

When he was team president of the Diamondbacks, Moorad hired Byrnes for his first GM gig in October 2005. Newly minted Padres assistant GMs A.J. Hinch and Chad MacDonald also worked with Moorad and Byrnes in Arizona. MacDonald left his post as Mets scouting director in November to join San Diego.

A restocked farm system may be Hoyer's lasting legacy with the Padres. San Diego built depth quickly through a pair of trades that returned prospects for veterans Adrian Gonzalez and Mike Adams. A third deal yielded Cameron Maybin, the 10th overall pick in the 2005 draft who finally came into his own in 2011, stealing 40 bases and providing quality defense in center field.

The young players received for Gonzalez and Adams will take longer to reach the majors but could provide a greater impact in the long run. First baseman Anthony Rizzo ranks as the Padres' top prospect after a breakout season in which he hit .331/.404/.652 with 26 homers in 93 Triple-A games.

Rizzo came from Boston along with righthander Casey Kelly and athletic center fielder Reymond Fuentes in exchange for Gonzalez. Kelly teamed with lefty Robbie Erlin and righty Joe Wieland, the price the Rangers paid for Adams, to form the heart of the playoff rotation for Double-A Texas League champion San Antonio. The Missions won 94 regular-season games, tops in the minors.

San Diego also has fortified its system by spending what it takes to acquire top draft talent. Under Moorad, the Padres have spent $24.4 million on bonuses in the 2009-11 drafts, an expenditure that ranks ninth in MLB. They have doled out three of the four largest bonuses in franchise history during that time, to 2009 No. 3 overall pick Donavan Tate ($6.25 million), 2011 second-rounder Austin Hedges ($3 million) and 2011 first-rounder Joe Ross ($2.75 million).

For the big league club, life after Gonzalez proved as bleak as expected in the immediate aftermath. San Diego followed a surprising 92-win campaign in 2010 with a 71-91 effort that landed them in last place in the National League West. Among NL clubs, only the Astros won fewer games.

Two rookies provided some of the few pleasant surprises. Lefthander Cory Luebke blossomed at age 26, opening the season in the bullpen before forcing his way into the rotation, where he went 5-8, 3.31 with 111 strikeouts in 101 innings over 17 starts. The Padres' top offensive performer was 27-year-old Jesus Guzman, who signed as a minor league free agent and hit .312/.369/.478 in 247 at-bats while filling it at all four corners.

1. Anthony Rizzo, 1B Born: Aug 08, 1989 B-T: L-L Ht.: 6-3 Wt.: 220
Drafted: Douglas HS, Parkland, Fla., 2007 (6th round). Signed by: Laz Gutierrez (Red Sox)
Anthony RizzoBackground: The Red Sox paid an above-slot $325,000 bonus to sign Rizzo as a sixth-round pick in 2007, and he made his full-season debut in style by hitting .373 in 21 games at low Class A the following April. His season came to a sudden halt, however, when he was diagnosed with limited stage classical Hodgkin's lymphoma, but doctors declared him cancer free that November and he bounced back to hit .297/.368/.461 at two Class A stops in 2009. He emerged as Boston's top offensive prospect in 2010, when he spent most of the year in Double-A and swatted 42 doubles and 25 homers. The Red Sox dealt him—along with 2008 and 2009 first-round picks Casey Kelly and Reymond Fuentes—to acquire all-star Adrian Gonzalez that December. It was no coincidence that then-Padres assistant GM Jason McLeod was the Boston scouting director who drafted all three players. Rizzo led all Triple-A batters with a 1.159 OPS through June 5, when San Diego called him up at age 21 because it had seen enough of Jorge Cantu and Brad Hawpe at first base. He went 3-for-7 with a double, triple, homer and four walks in his first three big league games, but he soon fell on hard times and went back to Tucson on July 21 having gone 11-for-91 (.121) in San Diego. He went on to rank second in the Pacific Coast League in slugging (.652) and fifth in hitting (.331) before returning to the Padres and starting eight games in September.

Scouting Report: He's not Gonzalez, but Rizzo isn't far away from succeeding him as the most dangerous hitter in San Diego's lineup. To do so, he'll have to make adjustments after big league pitchers were able to exploit the length and uppercut in his swing with quality fastballs up in the zone. He needs to stay on top of the ball and level out his stroke to make more contact and hit more line drives. Rizzo started to pull inside pitches for power Double-A, and he hit 23 of his 27 homers in 2011 to right or right-center field—but that's the most difficult way for a power hitter to thrive at spacious Petco Park. Strikeouts always will be a byproduct of Rizzo's plus power, though he led all big league rookies with at least 100 plate appearances with a 14 percent walk rate. Like many lefty power hitters, Rizzo struggles versus southpaws—he hit .245/.312/.409 against them in Double-A and Triple-A—but his strike-zone awareness should enable him to hit for a decent average. He receives solid to plus grades for his defense at first base, where he displays smooth actions and good arm strength. He still needs to improve his defensive consistency, however, after committing 30 errors in the last two seasons. He's a below-average runner, as expected for a player his size.

The Future: Rizzo could make the Padres with a strong spring-training performance, but more likely San Diego will send the 22-year-old back to Triple-A to work out the kinks in his swing. Once he does so, he could develop into a .270 hitter capable of producing 30 homers and a healthy amount of walks on an annual basis. Jesus Guzman, who went from minor league free agent to San Diego's top offensive performer in 2011, will keep first base warm until Rizzo is ready.

Year Team AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
'07 Red Sox (R) 21 6 6 0 0 1 3 1 2 0 0 .286 .375 .429
'08 Greenville (LoA) 83 9 31 6 0 0 11 3 15 0 0 .373 .402 .446
'09 Greenville (LoA) 245 40 73 21 0 9 42 25 60 2 1 .298 .365 .494
'09 Salem (HiA) 200 23 59 16 0 3 24 25 39 2 0 .295 .371 .420
'10 Salem (HiA) 117 26 29 12 0 5 20 16 32 3 0 .248 .333 .479
'10 Portland (AA) 414 66 109 30 0 20 80 45 100 7 1 .263 .334 .481
'11 Tucson (AAA) 356 64 118 34 1 26 101 43 89 7 6 .331 .404 .652
'11 San Diego (MAJ) 128 9 18 8 1 1 9 21 46 2 1 .141 .281 .242
Major League Totals 128 9 18 8 1 1 9 21 46 2 1 .141 .281 .242
Minor League Totals 1436 234 425 119 1 64 281 158 337 21 8 .296 .366 .514

2. Rymer Liriano, OF Born: Jun 20, 1991 B-T: R-R Ht.: 6-0 Wt.: 211
Signed: Dominican Republic, 2007. Signed by: Felix Francisco/Randy Smith
Rymer LirianoBackground: For the second straight year, Liriano slumped early before thriving after an in-season demotion. In 2011, he overcame a 7-for-55 (.127) start at high Class A Lake Elsinore to win the low Class A Midwest League MVP award. He finished third in the MWL batting race (.319), crushed 50 extra-base hits and ranked third in the minors with 66 steals.

Scouting Report: Among Padres farmhands, only 2009 No. 3 overall pick Donavan Tate can approach Liriano's overall collection of tools. He whips the bat through the zone, drives the ball to the middle of the field and has the strength and bat plane necessary to hit 25 homers one day. His pitch-recognition skills improved dramatically with Fort Wayne as he saw a steady diet of breaking balls, and he now projects as a solid hitter. Liriano has a quick first step and regularly gets down the line in less than 4.2 seconds from the right side, giving him plus speed. Strong instincts make him a plus basestealer, though scouts expect he'll lose a step as he fills out his thick frame. His average range and well above-average arm strength fit well in right field.

The Future: Liriano combined promise and performance like nobody else in the system in 2011. A future first-division right fielder, he'll attempt to solve high Class A in 2012.

 
Year Team AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
'08 Padres (R) 232 34 46 13 1 9 37 28 106 9 5 .198 .296 .379
'09 Padres (R) 197 44 69 8 1 8 44 15 52 14 5 .350 .398 .523
'10 Fort Wayne (LoA) 188 21 36 11 1 2 20 10 54 11 6 .191 .234 .293
'10 Eugene (SS) 203 35 55 13 6 0 12 17 53 17 7 .271 .335 .394
'10 Lake Elsinore (HiA) 50 3 11 2 0 1 6 5 12 3 0 .220 .291 .320
'11 Lake Elsinore (HiA) 55 8 7 1 1 0 6 6 13 1 1 .127 .213 .182
'11 Fort Wayne (LoA) 455 81 145 30 8 12 62 47 95 65 20 .319 .383 .499
Minor League Totals 1380 226 369 78 18 32 187 128 385 120 44 .267 .334 .420

3. Casey Kelly, rhp Born: Oct 04, 1989 B-T: R-R Ht.: 6-3 Wt.: 195
Drafted: Sarasota (Fla.) HS, 2008 (1st round). Signed by: Anthony Turco (Red Sox)
Casey KellyBackground: Kelly viewed himself as a shortstop when the Red Sox paid him a franchise draft-record $3 million as the 30th overall pick in 2008. He hit just .219 in his first two pro seasons before finally acceding to Boston's wishes in 2010 that he become a full-time pitcher. He performed well enough to join Anthony Rizzo as the centerpieces of the trade that sent Adrian Gonzalez to Boston.

Scouting Report: Kelly's fastball ranges from 88-92 to 93-95 mph, with heavy sink that helps it play as an above-average pitch even at lower velocities. It helped him post the second-best groundout/airout ratio in the Double-A Texas League in 2011. He repeats a clean, compact arm action that has aided the development of his secondary pitches. Kelly improved his control and consistency with his breaking ball when he repeated Double-A. His 11-to-5 curve added depth and velocity, grading as a plus pitch more often, though his changeup took a small step back. He entices batters to swing over his mid-80s changeup when he throws it from the same arm slot as his fastball. He lives in the bottom of the strike zone, allowing just 18 homers in 48 Double-A starts.

The Future: Kelly doesn't miss enough bats to profile as a pure ace. But with the potential for three solid to plus pitches, he fits the description of a No. 2 starter to a tee.

 
Year Team W L ERA G GS SV IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG
'09 Salem (HiA) 1 4 3.09 8 8 0 47 33 21 16 4 7 35 .191
'09 Greenville (LoA) 6 1 1.12 9 9 0 48 32 9 6 0 9 39 .181
'10 Portland (AA) 3 5 5.31 21 21 0 95 118 60 56 10 35 81 .293
'11 San Antonio (AA) 11 6 3.98 27 27 0 142 153 74 63 8 46 105 .264
Minor League Totals 21 16 3.82 65 65 0 332 336 336 141 22 97 260 .252

4. Cory Spangenberg, 2B Born: Mar 16, 1991 B-T: L-R Ht.: 6-0 Wt.: 185
Drafted: Indian River (Fla.) JC, 2011 (1st round). Signed by: Willie Bosque
Cory SpangenbergBackground: A Pennsylvania prep product, Spangenberg spent his freshman year at Virginia Military Institute before transferring to Indian River JC for 2011. He quickly gained acclaim as one of the best hitters in the draft, went 10th overall and signed four days later for $1.863 million. He ranked as the short-season Northwest League's top position prospect and batted .381 in the final month at Fort Wayne.

Scouting Report: Spangenberg knows the strike zone, barrels the ball consistently and smokes line drives to all fields. He could be an annual .300 hitter, though he'll have to maintain balance and add loft to his swing to hit for more than fringe-average power. His hips tend to drift when he gets anxious, and he sometimes struggles with inside pitches when his stance gets too wide. Spangenberg figures to collect his share of infield hits and stolen bases with his plus-plus speed, a true 70 tool on the 20-80 scouting scale. He played third base in junior college but profiles better at second base because of a slinging arm action and below-average present power. He runs well enough to handle center field.

The Future: Spangenberg could develop into a lesser version of Dustin Ackley. He'll open his first full season in high Class A and likely finish it at Double-A San Antonio.

 
Year Team AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
'11 Eugene (SS) 86 20 33 10 0 1 20 31 15 10 4 .384 .545 .535
'11 Fort Wayne (LoA) 189 35 54 7 1 2 24 14 42 15 4 .286 .345 .365
Minor League Totals 275 55 87 17 1 3 44 45 57 25 8 .316 .419 .418

5. Austin Hedges, C Born: Aug 18, 1992 B-T: R-R Ht.: 6-1 Wt.: 190
Drafted: JSerra HS, San Juan Capistrano, Calif., 2011 (2nd round). Signed by: Josh Emmerick
Austin HedgesBackground: The 82nd overall pick in June, Hedges waited until the Aug. 15 deadline before signing for $3 million, which would have been a second-round record had the Pirates' Josh Bell not pulled down $5 million that same day. Scouts regarded Hedges, an A student with a strong UCLA commitment, as one of the best defensive high school catchers in recent draft history.

Scouting Report: Amateur opponents rarely bothered running on Hedges, whose arm plays as a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale because of solid strength and clean, quick mechanics that produce pop times as quick as 1.78 seconds. He receives plus-plus grades for his receiving, blocking, quiet setup and leadership qualities, but scouts disagree on his offensive potential. Those who like Hedges' bat give him a chance to be an average hitter with average pop, while others think his overly aggressive approach will hinder him. Though he's agile for his size, he's a below-average runner like most catchers.

The Future: Hedges showed up to instructional league with a more physical build than he had in high school, and the Padres think he could be ready for full-season ball in 2012. He may be four years away from the big leagues, however.

 
Year Team AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
'11 Padres (R) 16 3 5 0 0 1 4 5 1 1 0 .313 .500 .500
'11 Eugene (SS) 10 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 3 0 0 .100 .250 .200
Minor League Totals 26 3 6 1 0 1 4 7 4 1 0 .231 .412 .385

6. Jedd Gyorko, 3B Born: Sep 23, 1988 B-T: R-R Ht.: 5-10 Wt.: 195
Drafted: West Virginia, 2010 (2nd round). Signed by: Andrew Salvo
Jedd GyorkoBackground: While scouts rated Gyorko as one of the best bats in the 2010 draft, he nevertheless lasted 59 picks. In his first full pro year in 2011, he led the minors with 192 hits and ranked second with 114 RBIs. He might have won the high Class A California League triple crown had he not been promoted in July. He settled for batting titles in the Cal League (.365) and Arizona Fall League (.437).

Scouting Report: Gyorko manages the strike zone well and uses a short, balanced swing that allows him to hit all types of pitching, so he should continue to hit for high averages. He's a sound situational hitter because he shortens up with two strikes, and he's not afraid to go outside his zone in key spots. Though he hits the ball with authority to the opposite field, his overall power potential is just average. Gyorko has soft hands, strong footwork and average arm strength at third base. As long as he maintains his current physique and fringy range, he probably can stay at the hot corner. He's a well below-average runner.

The Future: Gyorko's line-drive stroke figures to play well at Petco Park, where flyballs go to die. He's Chase Headley's likely successor in San Diego, possibly as soon as 2013 if Headley becomes too expensive. Gyorko will head back to Double-A to begin 2012.

 
Year Team AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
'10 Eugene (SS) 106 16 35 6 0 5 18 9 26 1 1 .330 .383 .528
'10 Fort Wayne (LoA) 162 19 46 11 0 2 23 19 31 1 0 .284 .366 .389
'11 Lake Elsinore (HiA) 340 78 124 35 2 18 74 38 64 11 3 .365 .429 .638
'11 San Antonio (AA) 236 41 68 12 0 7 40 26 50 1 0 .288 .358 .428
Minor League Totals 844 154 273 64 2 32 155 92 171 14 4 .323 .392 .518

7. Joe Wieland, RHP Born: Jan 21, 1990 B-T: R-R Ht.: 6-3 Wt.: 175
Drafted: Bishop Manogue HS, Reno, Nev., 2008 (4th round). Signed by: Butch Metzger (Rangers)
Joe WielandBackground: Wieland carried a 4.52 ERA through 231 innings at two Class A stops in the Rangers system in 2009-10, undercutting his reputation as a strike-thrower. He nullified those concerns with a breakout 2011 season in which he advanced to Double-A and ranked fifth in the minors with a 1.97 ERA and 7.1 K-BB ratio. Texas traded him and Robbie Erlin to the Padres for Mike Adams.

Scouting Report: Wieland sits at 88-92 mph and paints the corners with a fastball more notable for its precise location than life. He operated at 93 mph and touched 95 during the Texas League playoffs while working with extra rest. His secondary pitches are often as effective as his heat. Wieland's mid-70s curveball features consistent 12-to-6 break, while his 83-84 mph changeup sinks and fades. He occasionally throws a low-80s slider for a different look to his glove side, and sometimes favors it over his curve. He's so quick to the plate that just 12 baserunners attempted to steal against him in 2011.

The Future: Wieland profiles as a classic No. 4 starter, but his exquisite control suggests he could be a No. 3. He may be ready for a big league audition at some point in 2012.

 
Year Team W L ERA G GS SV IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG
'08 Rangers (R) 5 1 1.44 13 7 0 44 32 8 7 2 8 41 .196
'09 Hickory (LoA) 4 6 5.31 19 18 0 83 102 67 49 7 24 73 .291
'10 Hickory (LoA) 7 4 3.34 15 15 0 89 84 36 33 4 15 71 .239
'10 Bakersfield (HiA) 4 3 5.19 11 10 0 59 67 36 34 6 10 62 .275
'11 Myrtle Beach (HiA) 6 3 2.10 14 13 0 86 78 23 20 7 4 96 .233
'11 Frisco (AA) 4 0 1.23 7 7 0 44 35 9 6 2 11 36 .210
'11 San Antonio (AA) 3 1 2.77 5 5 0 26 23 10 8 0 6 18 .228
Minor League Totals 33 18 3.28 84 75 0 431 421 421 157 28 78 397 .246

8. Robbie Erlin, LHP Born: Oct 08, 1990 B-T: L-L Ht.: 6-0 Wt.: 175
Drafted: Scotts Valley (Calif.) HS, 2009 (3rd round). Signed by: Butch Metzger (Rangers)
Robbie ErlinBackground: Erlin led the low Class A South Atlantic League with a 2.12 ERA in 2010. He needed just nine starts to earn a promotion to Double-A in 2011, when he ranked second in the minors in K-BB ratio (9.6) and fourth in WHIP (0.95). He and Joe Wieland switched Texas League dugouts following the trade that sent Mike Adams to the Rangers.

Scouting Report: Erlin's secondary pitches, superb control and easy delivery give him more upside than the typical pitcher with an 89-91 mph fastball that tops out at 93. He works both corners with his heater, rarely straying out of the zone, not even with two strikes. Batters don't see the ball well out of his hand, making his fading changeup a deadly weapon, especially when it arrives anywhere from 12-15 mph slower than his fastball. Erlin buckles knees with a tight downer curveball in the low 70s. If anything, his control is too sharp, leaving him vulnerable to homers.

The Future: Like Wieland, Erlin is a control-oriented, flyball pitcher who will benefit from Petco Park. His stuff may not play as well in smaller parks, but his overall profile suggests solid mid-rotation starter. He'll team with Wieland again in 2011, this time in Tucson.

 
Year Team W L ERA G GS SV IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG
'09 Rangers (R) 0 0 2.25 3 0 0 4 5 1 1 0 1 9 .294
'10 Hickory (LoA) 6 3 2.12 28 17 1 115 89 37 27 9 17 125 .206
'11 Myrtle Beach (HiA) 3 2 2.14 9 9 0 55 25 15 13 7 5 62 .132
'11 Frisco (AA) 5 2 4.32 11 10 0 67 73 34 32 9 7 61 .267
'11 San Antonio (AA) 1 0 1.38 6 6 0 26 26 4 4 2 4 31 .250
Minor League Totals 15 7 2.60 57 42 1 267 218 218 77 27 34 288 .214

9. Joe Ross, RHP Born: May 21, 1993 B-T: R-R Ht.: 6-3 Wt.: 185
Drafted: Bishop O'Dowd HS, Oakland, 2011 (1st round). Signed by: Noah Jackson
Joe RossBackground: Like Padres second-rounder Austin Hedges, Ross turned down a UCLA commitment in exchange for a big bonus at the Aug. 15 deadline, signing for $2.75 million as the 2011 draft's 25th overall pick. He first threw to Hedges during the summer of 2010 as both played on the Florida showcase circuit, and they teamed up again during Ross' Aug. 28 pro debut. Ross' older brother Tyson has spent parts of the past two seasons on the Athletics pitching staff.

Scouting Report: Ross' fastball sat at 91-93 mph during the spring and at 93-95 in short outings during instructional league, topping out at 96 in both settings. He could sit in the upper registers of that range as he fills out his lean frame. His athleticism and smooth mechanics allow him to throw strikes and locate the ball down in the zone. The Padres love his clean arm action and strong aptitude for throwing a changeup, which projects as a plus pitch. His 11-to-5 curveball has its moments, but has farther to go than his changeup.

The Future: A potential frontline starter, Ross will team up again with Hedges in low Class A for their first full pro seasons. The Padres believe Ross has more maturity and feel for pitching coming out of high school than Keyvius Sampson and Johnny Barbato did as their most prized pitchers from the previous two drafts.

 
Year Team W L ERA G GS SV IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG
'11 Padres (R) 0 0 0.00 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 .400
Minor League Totals 0 0 0.00 1 0 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 .400

10. Keyvius Sampson, RHP Born: Jan 06, 1991 B-T: R-R Ht.: 6-0 Wt.: 185
Drafted: Forest HS, Ocala, Fla., 2009 (4th round). Signed by: Rob Sidwell
Keyvius SampsonBackground: The Padres stole Sampson with the 114th pick in 2009, getting him with the third choice on the draft's second day after he softened his bonus demands. Signed for $600,000, he pitched effectively at short-season Eugene in 2010, but his season was marred by a labrum tear in his shoulder as well as late-season elbow soreness. Healthy in 2011, he stifled Midwest League competition, finishing second in opponent average (.192) and third in strikeouts (143).

Scouting Report: Sampson's fastball sits at 90-92 mph and peaks at 95, exploding out of his hand with late running action. He wraps his wrist on the back side of his arm stroke, showing the ball to his opponent, but his arm is so quick that his control seems unaffected and his fastball grades as plus. He sells his plus changeup with strong arm speed, and it helped him hold MWL lefties to a .191 average. Sampson's curveball is clearly his third-best pitch because it lacks bite and power, sitting in the low 70s. Plus athleticism allows him to repeat his delivery, which features some effort, and overcome the stigma attached to 6-foot righthanders.

The Future: An improved breaking ball would enhance Sampson's profile, but he still has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter or late-inning reliever. He'll be 21 years old as he pitches in high Class A in 2012.

 
Year Team W L ERA G GS SV IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG
'09 Padres (R) 0 0 3.00 2 1 0 3 1 1 1 0 0 3 .100
'09 Eugene (SS) 0 0 3.60 2 1 0 5 3 2 2 0 3 5 .167
'10 Eugene (SS) 3 3 3.56 10 10 0 43 35 23 17 4 17 58 .213
'11 Fort Wayne (LoA) 12 3 2.90 24 24 0 118 81 42 38 8 49 143 .186
Minor League Totals 15 6 3.09 38 36 0 169 120 120 58 12 69 209 .191