By Ben Badler
November 20, 2009


Baseball America's Top 10 Prospects lists are based on projections of a player's long-term worth after discussions with scouting and player-development personnel. All players who haven't exceeded the major league rookie standards of 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched (without regard to service time) are eligible. Ages are as of April 1, 2009.

Ben Badler: Glad to be here. Just as a reminder, the Arizona Fall League championship game is being shown tomorrow on the MLB Network at 2:30 p.m. ET. I've got my Saturday afternoon schedule set.

Luke (Des Moines): Ben, what is your overall prognosis of Houston's farm system compared to other organizations? Still one of the weakest systems in the game, or are you hopeful?

Ben Badler: It won't be the No. 30 farm system in baseball, but it's going to be in the 21-30 range. For me, the Astros have three Top 100 prospects with Castro, Mier and Lyles. That's a solid start, and having top frontline guys is more important than having depth. There are a few guys after the big three that I think have the chance to be solid bullpen arms like Gervacio, Chia-Jen Lo, Evan Englebrook and Danny Meszaros, but there are too many low probability, low-reward players still in the system right now.

Warren (Texas): Who are the sleepers in the organization that still have a chance to impact MLB but that we may not have heard of? Any personal favorites? Thanks for the chat!

Ben Badler: Arecenio Leon spent the year in low Class A Lexington as a 22-year-old reliever and put up bad numbers, but he might have the best pure stuff of anyone in the system. He throws 93-96 and flashes a wipeout slider at 86-88 with good tilt, he just has absolutely no clue where it's going right now. He's a long shot, but I have talked to scouts who like him, at least as a lottery ticket with a big arm.

Rick (Dallas): Enjoy the work and chats Ben and BA. Regarding Jason Castro, can we safely say he is the #1 minor league catching prospect given Weiters and Posey are in the ML's. Would you rank Castro in top ten of BA's top 100 prospects?

Ben Badler: No, I wouldn't go that high on Castro. He's not in the Posey (who is still prospect-eligible), Carlos Santana or Jesus Montero level of elite catching prospects, but he's certainly in the next tier.

Dave (Pensacola, FL): What happened to David Duncan? He was shelled in the California League and wasn't much better in Low A.

Ben Badler: His splitter is a solid pitch, but he's tossing 86-89 mph fastballs with a slow, loopy curveball. Lancaster is particularly unkind to pitchers with fringy stuff that don't miss many bats.

willy (pitt): I know comps are often misleading, but is there a bit of Derek Jeter in Mier? What kind of offensive output do you think he's capable of at his peak, and what do you expect from Mier at Lexington in 2010? Thanks.

Ben Badler: I'm not going to go that far, but man, I really, really like Jiovanni Mier and he got great reviews from the scouts I talked to. He's a true shortstop with the potential to be an above-average defensive shortstop and he's made significant improvement at the plate as well. I don't think he'll be a career .300-.320 hitter like Jeter, but he has impressive pitch recognition skills, can get on base at a high clip and should grow into enough power down the road, probably anywhere from 10-20 homers per year. He's several years away, but he has a dynamic skill set.

Steve (Dallas): What are your thoughts on the future of Henry Villar? He has a great K/BB ratio.

Ben Badler: He does, but the stuff doesn't quite match the performance record. He'll mix in three pitches with a fastball, slider and changeup, but it's average velocity out of the bullpen at 89-91 and has some troubles finishing his slider.

Luke (Des Moines): Hey, Ben, I like Gervacio, but I'm a little surprised that he ranks #4. How much upside do you think he has and what prompted you to put him above Seaton and others? Thanks for the chat.

Ben Badler: In most farm systems, he wouldn't be the No. 4 prospect in an organization, but the talent level really drops off after the top three guys. I don't think Gervacio has tremendous upside, but he is a guaranteed major leaguer and one who should have solid value as a middle reliever, which is more than I expect out of Seaton at this point.

Jake (Houston): Had Bud Norris been eligible, where would he have ranked?

Ben Badler: Probably No. 4 behind Jordan Lyles, though since he wasn't eligible for the list, I spent most of my time with scouts bearing down on the other players in the organization.

Mike (Minneapolis): What is Jason Castro's upside? Is he going to be a servicable bat with more value in the defense or is he going to be a well-rounded impact catcher in the bigs?

Ben Badler: He's a well-rounded guy without too many glaring weaknesses or a plus-plus tool. The average NL catcher this year had a .325 OBP and a .385 SLG. The bar for catchers to hit is set fairly low, and with Castro's short swing and ability to work the count, I don't think he'll have much trouble at least matching and likely exceeding that line in his peak. If you couple that with average or better defense behind the plate, that's a valuable player at a premium position.

Jon (Lexington, KY): I know he's old, but will Brian Pellegrini warrant top 30 consideration? He did break Hunter Pence's Lexington home run record

Ben Badler: He had a great year and he's in consideration for the back end of the top 30 just because he does have some power, but he is a 23-year-old in low Class A who's limited defensively and doesn't handle breaking balls well.

Ryan D. (Moorpark, CA): Was Koby Clemen's strong offensive season in Lancaster more a result of a ridiculous, hitter friendly park or does he actually project as a big leaguer down the line?

Ben Badler: At this point he's already beaten a lot of people's expectations, but the power numbers are going to come down, of course. He's more of a doubles hitter who works the gaps than a true power hitter, though he'll have a chance to hit for power down the road. He did tone down some of the moving parts in his swing this year, keeping his head still, shortening some of his actions and keeping a firmer foundation underneath him. The problem is he doesn't really have a position, and the bat isn't as palatable at first base or in a corner outfield position.

The Big Ragu (Milwaukee): I believe when all is said and done that Tanner Bushue will have a better career then either lyles or seaton. Honestly in the end a pitcher either has nasty stuff or he doesn't and although to this point of there young careers Lyles and to a lesser degree Seaton have had more success I believe Bushue has the most upside if the boy can just stay healthy and since he hasnt had arm toubles I belive he has a breakout season in 2010. What are your thoughts. Thanks Dude.

Ben Badler: It's possible, but I think you might be underrating Lyles who, just for reference, was born on the same exact day as Tyler Matzek, the Rockies' outstanding first-round pick THIS year. He has the potential for three average or better pitches with potentially above-average command and a free-and-easy delivery. There's a lot to like there.

D. Meter (Florida): What are you thoughts on Telvin Nash? Top 30 material yet?

Ben Badler: Top 30 for certain with his kind of raw power and athleticism, but the contact issues are a concern for a player whose value is almost all in his bat and is so far away from the big leagues.

Brett (Mount Prospect, IL): There just seems to be something about Jio Mier that makes him sound like a future star. Was he the safest HS pick in the draft? Am I crazy for thinking he will be the best position player not named Ackley in the 2009 draft? Is Castro's pro experience the reason he is higher than Mier?

Ben Badler: Mier's tools combined with his plate discipline and instincts make him a safer prospect than most high school picks, so no, I don't think you're crazy at all, especially considering the lack of top-shelf hitting prospects in this year's draft.

GR (Jersey): Were Chris Johnson and Tommy Manzella considered prospects or did their weak cups of coffee eliminate them?

Ben Badler: They'll be in the top 30, but they look more like fringy big leaguers or backups. Johnson shows some flashes of ability to hit and hit for some power, but he needs to learn to work the count better, not chase so many pitches out of the zone and bring his footwork and agility up to par at third base. There's talk within the organization that Manzella might take over their starting gig at shortstop. He does have a solid arm, hands and footwork, but he's really more of a spray hitter without much pop, so it's hard to see him as more than a slightly above replacement-level player at best.

GR (Jersey): Yordany Ramirez ... career minor leaguer or will his defense get him to the big leagues some day?

Ben Badler: The defense gets great marks, but he's not going to make much of an impact at the big league level until he learns to take a pitch. A .275 OBP in the PCL doesn't translate too kindly in the big leagues.

Harry (Jefferson City MO): How far down the list did Bogusevic fall, and what is your opinion of his overall tools?

Ben Badler: He's still in the 30, and with his background it's tough to get a great read on him because he's 25, but not really 25 in terms of his offensive development level. He's got a pretty good idea of the strike zone and has impressive instincts in the outfield and on the bases. It's a fairly quick swing, but he's not a high-contact hitter so I don't expect him to hit for a high average and his lack of power might get exploited at the next level.

Rob (Alaska): I know he's not a prospect any more, but is there any hope left for J.R. Towles? To the extent that his minor league record means anything, he would still seem to deserve a shot as an everyday player.

Ben Badler: Still think it's too early to give up on Towles. He's been given barely 250 PAs in Houston and has a solid minor league track record. I think Castro is their catcher of the future, but I wouldn't give up on Towles yet.

GR (Jersey): What's next for Gaston? Can he sustain the power in heavier air?

Ben Badler: Most scouts I talked to lean toward no. He can generate some loft in his swing, but guys who swing and miss that much in A-ball tend to get eaten alive by more advanced pitching.

Paul (Galveston): Who are some of the sleepers in the organization that could take off in 2010?

Ben Badler: I mentioned Leon earlier, but I think Evan Englebrook has a chance to help their bullpen as soon as next year. He's 27 and 6-foot-8 , and sometimes taller pitchers take longer to develop because there are just so many moving parts and levers that it's tough to repeat them all consistently and throw strikes. He's improved in that regard, throwing out of the stretch consistently and shortening up his leg kick to reduce some of the moving parts from his delivery, although there's still some effort there. He's not going to miss too many bats, but he sits around 94-96, hits 97 and gets a good amount of groundballs.

Maggie (Los Angeles, CA): Matt Nevarez was traded to the Astros in August, and I am wondering what his opportunity and future will be with the organization?

Ben Badler: Another interesting sleeper in the system. He doesn't quite have the stuff to match Leon, but he does have better control. He'll throw 93-94 and touch 95 with a short, inconsistent slider in the low-80s. His control still needs work but he's made a lot of strides with his ability to throw strikes since signing. He was a little old for the South Atlantic League, but I could see him moving quickly through that system and helping Houston's bullpen in a couple of years if everything clicks for him.

mike (atlanta): Who do you prefer between Jay Austin and Xavier Avery from the Orioles? Both are Ga boys in the 2008 draft.

Ben Badler: Austin. I'm not sold on him yet, but Avery had a very disappointing year and I do think that the numbers Austin posted in the second half of the season were indicative of true improvement with him starting to learn how to drive the ball more than just being a slap-and-run hitter.

baseballnut (Great State of Texas): With all the new hires the Astros have made since Bobby Heck has come on board, do you see any improvements in draft classes and are the Astros on their way back to rebuilding their farm system?

Ben Badler: It's hard to judge a draft just one year later, but I do think there's progress. The current front office is hamstrung by the deterioration of their farm system from the previous several seasons, the no-trade clauses they inherited and that bloated Carlos Lee contract. I think there's more they could have done trading away some of their useful big leaguers, even if it's just for solid prospects, but rebuilding the system isn't going to be easy. It would be nice to see more of a full-out commitment to scouting and player development—going over slot in the draft, working the trade markets for prospects—because I can't see the big league club contending for a playoff spot in the near future. But they have made some very promising draft picks at the top of the draft the last couple of years, so there's definitely reasons to be optimistic on the scouting side in Houston.

Ben Badler: Thanks for all the questions, but I've got to get back to helping put together the Prospect Handbook. I won't be chatting next week, so a happy Thanksgiving to all.