Texas Rangers: Top 10 Prospects Chat With Aaron Fitt

Texas Rangers: Chat




Baseball America's Top 10 Prospects lists are based on projections of a player's long-term worth after discussions with scouting and player-development personnel. All players who haven't exceeded the major league rookie standards of 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched (without regard to service time) are eligible. Ages are as of April 1, 2008.

 Q:  AUTOGRAFFIX.com from Stoughton, WI asks:
What happen to last year's #5 Rangers Top Prospect John Mayberry? Is he still a prospect or more of a suspect? Will he hit more Major League HRs than his father?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: Hello all, and welcome to the Rangers chat. We're in full-blown College Preview manic mode right now at the BA HQ, but I'll try to answer as many questions as I can before I have to run.

Aaron Fitt: Mayberry is certainly still a prospect — he did hit 28 homers last year between two levels and made progress shortening his swing, though he's still a work-in-progress. The Rangers have known all along that he would be a long-term project with a lot of upside, and that's what he remains. He dropped into the 15-20 range mostly because the system has improved so much, not because he's dropped as a prospect. You can, of course, pick up a copy of the Prospect Handbook to find out exactly where he ranks.

 Q:  JAYPERS from IL asks:
With Young firmly entrenched at 2B, what options does Duran have? I see you project him to have a cup of coffee at some point this season.
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: Well, we know Duran isn't going to win the starting second base job, but he's got a shot to earn a spot as a utilityman — think Placido Polanco in his Cardinals days. Second base is by far Duran's best position, but he's got enough range and arm to fill in on the left side of the infield or in left field. The Rangers believe his bat is close to major league-ready, and he's gotten much better at using the whole field. Of course, he also could start the year as the starting second baseman at Oklahoma City.

 Q:  Ben from Leland Grove asks:
Could I get your input on Marcus Lemon, and why he missed the Top 30? His makeup seems to be off the charts, from what I read. Are his tools that far behind?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: Ben must have picked up his Handbook to know that Lemon missed the top 30 cut. Makeup is Lemon's calling card, and his tools do lag behind — he really doesn't profile as a second baseman, and it stands to reason he'll have to learn to play second base and the outfield if he wants to reach the big leagues. Lemon is one player I won't write off as a starter because he is so confident and plays with so much energy, but he's got a lot to prove. Lemon was in an earlier version of the top 30 before getting cut late, and you can read my write-up of him in the 31st team that Jim Callis presented in January — you can find that on our Prospects page.

 Q:  Joseph Corsin from Stage Deli, NY asks:
What excluded Chad Tracy from your list this season, and how would you rank his tools overall?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: Tracy took a big hit when he was moved out from behind the plate — not that anyone really thought he profiled as a catcher anyway, but now we have confirmation. He'll go as far as his bat will take him, and I'm not convinced he's got enough power to be a big league starter as a corner guy. He's a Kevin Millar-Jeff Conine type, except without as much power as Conine — it's fringe-average power. He does have a knack for putting the bat on the ball and can hit a lot of doubles. His arm is strong enough for the oufield, but his mobility is limited even in left. He profiles as a first base-left field platoon guy, and in a system this deep, that's not enough to make the top 30.

 Q:  JAYPERS from IL asks:
When do you see Salty making the switch to 1B to make room for Teagarden?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: I'm not convinced that outcome is inevitable — Saltalamacchia has the tools to be a fine catcher in his own right, though not as good as Teagarden. I think the Rangers will leave him behind the plate until Teagarden forces their hand, at which point they'll either make a trade or shift Salty to first. But as good as his bat is, Salty is not as valuable if he's not behind the plate.

 Q:  AUTOGRAFFIX.com from Stoughton, WI asks:
If Chris Davis is the Projected 2011 3B, where does that leave Johnny Whittleman?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: I actually think Davis will wind up shifting to first base or DH, which could be factor in deciding whether to move Saltalamacchia to first or leave him behind the plate. If all of these players we're talking about develop enough to force the Rangers to make some of these tough choices, that's a predicament Texas will be happy to confront. Until then, the Rangers will keep all of these players at the positions where they retain the most value. Our projected 2011 lineups aren't intended to be predictions of the actual starting lineups, rather they are a snapshot that shows the relative strengths and weaknesses of the organization at the major league level and below.

 Q:  Travis from TX asks:
What is the word on the recovery of Thomas Diamond?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: It's on schedule. He will begin throwing some simulated games in spring training and the Rangers hope he'll be full go by June 1. At that point, he figures to head back to Double-A, with the hope that he can reach Triple-A by the end of the year. Texas is hopeful that he comes back throwing even harder than he did before the Tommy John surgery.

 Q:  JBS from Indianapolis asks:
Aaron, A couple of questions. Do you see German Duran (was he close to the top 10?) having a legitimate chance of making the Opening Day roster this year? Second, I was surprised to see Matt Harrison fall out of the top 10 after being #3 for the Braves last year? Where do you see his ceiling at the major league level?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: Duran was another guy in that 15-20 range (I already addressed his potential destinations this year). Harrison is an interesting prospect, and there is a wide variance of opinion on him — some people inside the organization and out think he's going to be special, while others see him as a back-end starter. I can't see him being better than a No. 3 starter, and more likely a No. 4 or 5, which is why I rated him behind some higher-upside, higher-risk guys like Beltre, Beavan, Kiker, etc. He does have a terrific feel for pitching and a couple of solid-average pitches, but his body is maxed out and he lacks projection.

 Q:  Chris Kline from Santiago, Dominican Republic asks:
Wow, your Pats choked and now you have to kick off the week with a chat? Look at it this way, at least you get to shower with hot water every morning and you were able to watch the Super Bowl on a color TV . . .
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: I wish I hadn't. To our readers, be sure to check out Chris Kline's outstanding coverage from the Caribbean World Series — and just be glad you don't have to smell him, given that shower situation.

 Q:  Luke from Des Moines asks:
What is Engel Beltre's MLB upside? .300 with 30 homers and 20 steals, or is that too optimistic? thanks
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: I really think he can be a 30-30 guy — the upside is very tantalizing. But he's a long way off.

 Q:  Josh from Ft. Worth asks:
How quickly can Borbon move through the organization, and defensively would you take Borbon or Beltre?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: I think Borbon can move quickly, but not rocket-like — he's still got a few things to smooth out offensively and defensively. I think he'll be in Double-A by the start of next year and could be in the big leagues by 2010. I would take Borbon defensively because of his instincts, even though Beltre has a much stronger arm. Beltre could wind up being better, but really they both have Gold Glove-caliber defensive tools — it's just a matter of developing those tools for Beltre, and for Borbon it's improving the exchange from the glove to get more on his throws.

 Q:  David from Orlando asks:
Where would Neil Ramirez fit in in a more-shallow organization? What's his upside? Before the draft, he sounded like a potential No. 2 or No. 1 starter in the bigs.
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: But it this way: if you put Ramirez in last year's Top 30, he probably ranks No. 4 or 5. This year he came in at No. 13. He's got huge upside — he ran his fastball up to 96 mph in instructs, and his short, tight power curveball could be a plus-plus pitch with some more consistency. He's also got a prototype pitcher's frame, he's just very raw — he needs to learn to repeat his delivery and release point, which should help his command, and he needs to develop a changeup. But he's very, very intriguing.

 Q:  Drew Jackson from Cleveland, OH asks:
Where did young hurler Omar Poveda rank on your list? How close was he to making the top 10?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: Just missed — came it at No. 11. Now you know the first three guys who missed the top 10 — pick up the Handbook for the rest. Poveda is like a younger, slightly more projectable, righthanded Matt Harrison, except with an even better changeup.

 Q:  Jon from Peoria asks:
How does Johnny Whittleman's ceiling compare with Chris Davis?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: Davis projects as a big-time power bat in the big leagues, while Whittleman is really more of a line-drive guy with average power. I do think Whittleman has a better chance to stick at third base than Davis, despite the 68 errors he made over the last two years, but clearly he's got to become more consistent there.

 Q:  tricer from Ft Worth asks:
Brandon Boggs had a very impressive season in the Texas League - .385 OBP (7th in the league) and .508 SLG (4th, behind Headley, Rasmus, and Duran) plus reports of outstanding range and arm in CF doesn't get him in the Rangers top 30. Do you see his 2007 as a fluke? or is his value discounted for being 24 in AA? or is the Texas system just that deep? Also, what does David Murphy do better than Boggs?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: Boggs went from off the map before 2007 to on it, but he's still only a potential extra outfielder. I think Murphy and Boggs both profile as fourth outfielders, but Murphy is there now, he's ready to fill in at any outfield position in 2008, whereas Boggs probably needs to prove himself more in Triple-A.

 Q:  Bennie from TX asks:
Aaron, thanks for the chat. What type of ceilings do you see Omar Poveda and Fabio Castillo having? Do you think they will be able to contribute at the major league level in the next few years?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: Castillo has the considerably higher ceiling, but Poveda is the safer bet. I think Poveda has a very good chance to be a No. 3 or 4 starter down the road, whereas Castillo could be a No. 2 if it all comes together, but there is more risk. Castillo's lively fastball can reach 97 mph, and he's flashed a good breaking ball in the past, but it was a very bad pitch in 2007 — he needs to get back to throwing the true power curve he showed in 2006, rather than the flat slider-type breaking ball he threw in 2007. He is a year and a half younger than Poveda, giving him plenty of time to figure it all out — even Poveda's only 20, and Castillo turns 19 this month.

 Q:  Don from Rosemont, IL asks:
Zach Phillips had a solid second season at Clinton. Is it safe to say that he is likely a fourth or fifth starter type?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: I'd say you hit it on the head. He came in toward the back of the top 30.

 Q:  Doug from Salt Lake City asks:
I'm curious as to where Salty might rank on this list if he was still eligible?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: He probably would have been No. 1.

 Q:  tricer from Ft Worth asks:
Luis Mendoza hasn't missed many bats in his minor league career (4.66 k/9 career, 5.63 last season), but his results seemed to improve last season. Did his stuff take a step forward in 2007 and does he have a future as a major leaguer?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: Mendoza's never going to be dominating — he's a ground ball guy, and he relies a lot on a solid infield defense. For a sinker-slider guy, I'd like to see him post a better ground ball-fly ball ratio, but the stuff is there. I think he's got a chance to earn a swing type role in the majors this season.

 Q:  Doug from Salt Lake City asks:
Other than Hurley and Harrison, which of their top young pitchers (Main, Kiker, Beavan, Feliz, Poveda, Ramirez, Castillo, etc.) do you think might surprise and show up the quickest? Who has the best chance at developing into that elusive #1 starter that the Rangers have been seeking for so long?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: I think Kiker will move the fastest — he's really pretty polished and has excellent stuff. The key will be durability, which is always a concern with pitchers of his small stature even though he has no injury history and keeps himself in excellent condition. With his quality three-pitch mix, I think Kiker could be a starter in the Casey Fossum mold (except with better stuff), but his stuff would be even more electric in short doses in the bullpen, which could also help keep him healthy. I think Feliz has potential true No. 1 stuff and has the best chance of being that guy you're talking about, but Main and Ramirez are also in the discussion. I don't see Hurley as a true No. 1, even though we've got him ahead of those guys in our projected 2011 rotation — he's just closer to the big leagues and a very safe bet to be a No. 3 or maybe No. 2. Beavan, to me, has back-of-the-bullpen stuff, not front-of-the-rotation stuff.

 Q:  tricer from Ft Worth asks:
Matt Harrison's stock seems to have plummeted (#3 Braves prospect in 07, #11 for the Rangers in 08) following his trade from the Braves to the Rangers, despite pitching 116 innings with 3.32 ERA in AA at age 21. How would you characterize his stuff and his ceiling?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: Honestly, his slide in the rankings is more because he's in a much deeper organization now than he was a year ago — the Braves ranked NO. 16 on our talent rankings in 2007, and the Rangers are No. 4 in 2008. He's still a very good prospect.

 Q:  Ben from Leland Grove asks:
Is Beavan's brashness a concern for the team in the future?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: No, I think his swagger is an asset, and the Rangers believe the humble pie he tasted in instructs will benefit him.

 Q:  Jamey Newberg from Dallas asks:
Where does Max Ramirez fit for you? Is he a guy that will be traded a third time before he settles in for a 10-year career punishing big league pitchers?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: Tough guy to get a read on, Jamey. I truly believe he will hit in the big leagues — not for much home run power, more than 12-15 per season, but I think he'll wear out the gaps and hit for a high average, despite his unorthodox swing. But I also don't think he'll stick behind the plate, and a corner guy who hits .315 with 12 homers isn't worth as much as a catcher who does the same. He slotted in at No. 23 on my list.

 Q:  Jonathan from Geogria asks:
Hey Aaron - Teagarden...do you think he could develop into a Paul Loduca type catcher..but with better defense and striking out a little more? I kind of get the feeling that his offensive season had to do with being in the cal league, and being 24.
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: Keep in mind, he continued to hit in the Texas League, swatting seven homers in 102 at-bats. I questioned his bat in college, honestly, but I think he's developing nicely at the plate. I'm not saying he'll hit 27 homers every year — 15 is more reasonable — but he can be a very solid offensive catcher and an exceptional defensive one. That's a pretty valuable package.

 Q:  Ron from Chatham, Ontario asks:
How does Michael Main stack up against the other high ceiling RH pitching prospects from the '07 draft? Do you see Main as a notch below Rick Porcello and Jarrod Parker as a pitching prospect?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: I do think he's a little behind those guys, but his ceiling isn't far removed from theirs. He's actually quite similar to Parker — both are smaller-framed guys with electric arms, whereas Porcello has more of a classic pitcher's frame and better current secondary stuff.

 Q:  Michael Stern from Rochester NY asks:
You mention Blake Beavan as not faring well in instructional league. What transpired? And was that some of the reasoning he was ranked behind Kiker and Main? Tools wise I would think he has a higher upside. What are the ceilings for Beavan, Kiker and Main? All #1, or # 2 starters down the road?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: I just mean that Beavan realized how many other good players are out there, and some veteran players like Tommy Hunter took his ego down a couple of pegs. Certainly not saying he had a bad instructs, just that it was a valuable learning experience for him, from a maturity standpoint more than anything. I think he's got a lower ceiling than Main, who I see as potential top-of-the-rotation guy. I suppose Beavan could be also, but there are legitimate concerns about the secondary stuff that make me think he looks like a closer. Kiker is smaller but is lefthanded and has better secondary stuff, plus a fastball that isn't half bad either.

 Q:  Hanil Kim (a.k.a khanone) from Seoul, South Korea asks:
1. Where is Brandon Boggs? He would be the guy who Rangers have needed: center fielder, plate discipline, and some power & speed. If Armandon Galarraga(DFA'd) is out of the team, who is the new Top 30? Marcus Lemon or Boggs? 2. How good are AZL Rangers pitchers? Only Wilmer Font is known by here, BA. How about Geuris Grullon? Is Yoon-Hee Nam a prospect?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: If they really believed Boggs was the answer at CF, something tells me they might not have dealt a promising arm like Volquez to get Hamilton. Lemon would slide into the top 30. As for Grullon, he's an interesting 6-foot-5 LHP with a longer arm action but decent stuff — he ran his fastball intot he 89-92 range this summer. He's very raw, but has some talent. I wouldn't get excited about Nam.

 Q:  Grizzly Doug from Wrigley asks:
Higher ceiling: Elvis Andrus or Tim Beckham?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: Beckham. Just a lightning-fast bat, more speed, more power potential, chance to be a very good defender also. I think his offensive upside separates him from Andrus.

 Q:  Sean from Cranford asks:
Should Andrus be considered the top shortstop prospect likely to stay there at the highest level? (Assuming guys like Moustakas, Triunfel, slide over to the corner)
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: I think you could say that, yes. I like Reid Brignac a lot also, but I would probably take Andrus.

 Q:  Steve Miller from asks:
What is your take on Andrew Laughter? He's a big kid and I have heard he has a great fastball. I am not sure what else he throws but Spokane seemed to love him in the closer role last season.
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: Big, aggressive righthander who pounds the zone with a 90-94 mph fastball. His fastball has heavy sink, and if he can improve his fringe-average slider, he's got a chance to shoot through that system.

 Q:  Big Dave from Arkansas asks:
How many of the Rangers prospects that didn't make the top ten, would have made the top ten in Houston's system?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: At least seven, maybe 10 or 12. I'm no expert on the Astros system, but those names don't look very impressive to me, and this Texas system is very deep.

 Q:  Dan from Fairfield, CA asks:
Forget the Rangers. How is the College Preview coming? Can't wait for the Top 50 by class lists - when can we expect those?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: The College Preview is coming along, but I'm afraid it needs my attention again, so we'll have to stop here for today. (You can expect the top 50 prospects by class online in the next two to three weeks.) Thanks to all of you for a great chat with outstanding questions — I enjoyed it, as always.