J.J. Cooper: Hi guys, thanks for coming out. I'll try to get to as many Reds questions as I can over the next couple of hours. Unlike Myers, I don't have any Cincy-themed rap to listen to, but I hope to put in a yeoman's effort just the same. I'll start off with an easy one. Bruce is one of the best outfield prospects in the minors and should be an impact bat who also plays a very solid OF. He's the kind of guy that teams build lineups around. Votto is not at that level, but he also projects as a very useful everyday first baseman. I wouldn't expect Votto to make the Reds coming out of spring training, but I think it wouldn't be unexpected if he's a July callup.

J.J. Cooper: Turner is the kind of grinder that managers love. He was one of a few guys who sat just outside of the top 30. He understands the game, shows good range and a decent line drive swing. If he equals that performance next season in full season ball he'll be in next year's Top 30. The major knock on Turner is that he lacks power and as a Cal State Fullerton product he was advanced for the Pioneer League and so could be expected to have a strong debut.

Moderator: I wouldn't say they're a top 5 org, but they definitely have improved a lot in recent years. The big difference is that they have hit it big with their first-rounders recently in Homer Bailey and Jay Bruce, and just as importantly, they have seen guys stay healthy. For years Reds pitching prospects would show some promise before disappearing for years because of shoulder or elbow injuries that they never made it back from. That didn't happen in 2006.

J.J. Cooper: Lutz has a good arm, but had some injury concerns which is why he lasted until the 19th round where the Reds got a nice steal. The fastball bounced back some this summer after dipping down to the mid 80s during the spring. He still has a ways to go, but that was a nice steal for the Reds.

J.J. Cooper: You hear Larry Walker thrown out a lot for Bruce with good reason. Bruce could end up pretty similar to that--he's a slightly above-average runner now although no one would be surprised if he ends up growing into more of an average runner with above-average power. Add in his plus arm and those are two pretty good comps.

J.J. Cooper: Votto isn't really a one-year wonder--he showed an ability to hit for average and power in 2004 as well, 2005 is the year that sticks out as unlike the others. Votto has worked hard to improve his tools over the past couple of years and that is clearly paying off. Votto has more power than Loney with a similar ability to work counts, so I'd take Votto.

J.J. Cooper: Soto seems to be the Reds secret weapon. Johnny Cueto and Elizardo Ramirez are two of a number of Reds pitchers who have clearly benefited from working with Soto. The Reds value his work as he not only knows a lot about pitching but also has shown an ability to convey that knowledge to young pitchers. In spring training if you need work on your changeup, Soto is a one-stop shop for a tuneup.

J.J. Cooper: He's a seventh or eighth-inning guy potentially. Nice fastball that gained a tick of velo when he moved to the pen full time. He has an average curveball and a changeup that has potential as well. The Reds have a number of relievers in Double-ATriple-A who could end up helping out the bullpen in the not-so-distant future. None are likely closers, but all project as potential setup men, which is why trading David Shafer doesn't seem to be that big of a risk.

J.J. Cooper: Oops, messed up and lost my answer on the catchers. There really isn't a catcher in the system right now that projects as a big league regular. It's definitely a need in the org, although the team is OK at the big league level right now so it's not a pressing need. As far as Cueto, if he was 6-3 he would be a little higher on everyone's radar. It's not that a short righthander can't be successful in the majors--the Astros have proven that, but it's still pretty rare. Some scouts look at his body and project that he'll likely end up moving to the pen...if he does he drops down a notch as a prospect. I'd guess he'll end up outside of the Top 100 this year (we haven't had the meeting yet, so that's not certain) but that he can make sure he's on next year's list with a solid season at Double-A.

J.J. Cooper: Makeup issues are Gonzalez' big problem. He reminds me in many ways of the Twins lefty Jose Mijares (who's even more talented). Both are pitchers with worlds of potential but have yet to figure out that no one will hand you a big league job. You have to work really hard to get there. Gonzalez' stuff is suffering some from his lack of conditioning. As talented as he may be, we're still talking about a guy who has yet to suceed in full season ball in three years as a pro.

J.J. Cooper: I'd have to go with Janish. There are questions with both Loo and Valaika about whether they will end up moving off shortstop while Janish can clearly handle the position.

J.J. Cooper: I wouldn't be surprised to see him end up as a center fielder. Wayne Krivsky emphasizes defense which leads me to think that eventually Loo will end up at center or third.

J.J. Cooper: Votto had a season to forget in 2005, partly because the old regime's rule of always take one pitch left him frustrated and too often behind in counts. There are a number of reasons for the turnaround. He got his confidence back after a year that left him somewhat frustrated. But he's also worked hard to improve his bat speed and his approach. One scout who saw him this year after last seeing him in the Midwest League was impressed at how hard Votto has clearly worked to improve himself. When he saw him in the MWL he didn't think Votto has the bat speed or the athleticism to be a major league regular. This year, the scout completely changed his tune.

J.J. Cooper: Maybe not a flash in the pan, but he has a long road to go to get back to where he was heading into last season. The Reds all of a sudden have a number of SS prospects (Janish, Loo and Valaika), so Rosales will have to fight just to get ABs at shortstop. Unless he switches positions or becomes more of a utility infielder it's hard to see how he'll get 450 ABs at Low A Dayton or high A Sarasota this year. Rosales' 2006 was largely lost because of injuries, but he'll now be a 23-year-old trying to succeed for the first time in full season ball. Because of his age he doesn't have as many second chances as a 20-year-old.

J.J. Cooper: The league best tools lists are based largely on talking to managers and some scouts, which can mean that a guy with some athleticism at 1B (like Votto) can make a spectacular play or two over a three-game series that will stick in a manager's head. Over a full season the Reds saw some impressive things from him, but they also don't think he's really ready defensively to play in the majors right now.

J.J. Cooper: It's hard not to think of Gordon because he's one of the patron saints of short righthanders. But Cueto's stuff is different than Gordon's. Gordon's curveball was an otherworldly pitch, one of those true 12-to-6ers that is scary to watch. Cueto has good stuff, but no pitch that's plus-plus like Gordon's curve was.

J.J. Cooper: It's too early to say that Stubbs can't hit. And it's too early to say that Watson can't locate his fastball. The Reds were aware that they were rolling the dice somewhat with Stubbs. Everyone thinks he'll be able to play an outstanding center field and hit for power. As the Reds see it, if he doesn't cut down the strikeouts he'll still be a useful major leaguer and if he does, he could be a star. It's a risky pick, but then it wasn't an outlandish risk considering the talent pool in last year's draft. Watson will likely be a reliever, but the Reds took him with the hope that he'll be able to move quickly through the system.

J.J. Cooper: I just heard a report that Gardner is healthy, but in both cases it's a long road to get back to where they were. There are a lot more pitchers who never recovered fully from shoulder injuries than ones who make it back to their previous success. Both need to show that they can stay healthy after long layoffs before we can even think about them returning to their previous prospect status.

J.J. Cooper: Burton really didn't get any consideration for the Top 10, but that doesn't mean he can't make the roster as a Rule 5 pick. He's got a solid fastball and a cutter, which puts him in a group of guys battling for one of the last spots in the Reds pen.

J.J. Cooper: I think Bailey will be one of the best five starters in Reds camp this spring, but it seems to make sense to give him a month or two in Louisville, partly to ease him up to the big leagues and also to keep his innings down. The Reds have a special arm there, and they will play it safe.

J.J. Cooper: Not too close. Nothing against Bruce, but it's very, very hard to find a No. 1 starter, which is why the argument for best pitcher in the minors seems to have two candidates--Bailey and Philip Hughes, while Bruce is one of a slew of top-notch outfielders (Maybin, McCutchen, Delmon, Justin Upton, Chris Young, Colby Rasmus, etc.)

J.J. Cooper: Hamilton. At one point he was the No. 1 prospect in baseball, even if it was a long, long time ago--that doesn't mean he's likely to make a triumphant comeback, but he's more likely than Neighborgall.

J.J. Cooper: His velocity isn't what it once was, and he's yet to develop the consistent curveball that's been the big question for two years now. When you don't have a curveball in rookie ball, it's not as much a concern as it is when you still haven't mastered it a year later.

J.J. Cooper: A lot of teams, including Cincy, will likely be regretting letting Lincecum go.

J.J. Cooper: Loo ranked ahead of Valaika because I think he projects a tick better over the long term, but Valaika is a safer bet because he's produced everywhere he's been. My guess would have Loo playing 3B or CF and Valaika playing 2B by the time they reach Triple-A.

J.J. Cooper: Generally relievers rank lower on our lists than starters because many starters also have an option of becoming solid relievers if they are moved to the pen. The Reds had a number of relievers in the upper minors (Salmon, Jon Coutlangus, Calvin Medlock, Carlos Guevera) who could help out a bullpen. Of the group, I like Coutlangus best largely because he is the lone lefty in the group.

J.J. Cooper: Last year the Reds decided to add a lot of polished college talent in Chris Buckley's first draft. That helped to bulk up the lower levels of the farm system that was somewhat thin thanks to previous injuries and last year's trades. I'd expect to see them go more the high school route this season, especially considering the high school talent in this class.

J.J. Cooper: I know I just answered a similar question, but I wanted to mention Salmon. If you were going to pick out one Reds reliever who could help in 2007, I'd pick Salmon as the most likely. His upside is very limited--he'll be 27 so this is what you get, but his stuff is enough to get big leaguers out.

J.J. Cooper: I haven't heard 100 on Obispo, I've heard more mid 90s, but he's definitely a talent. Obispo is one of a number of prospects who were nailed in a visa fraud scheme where they were to pocket money for marrying women to help them get visas. From what we've heard, the U.S. is not exactly inclined to give a second chance to someone who has tried to scam the U.S. for a visa. Unless something changes, Obispo will be one of those "what could have been" prospects. Pitching year after year in the DSL is not exactly helping his development.

J.J. Cooper: We had one scout describe Parker as the kind of guy who will probably reach a level where he's eventually overmatched, but he'll give you several productive seasons until he reaches that level. He lacks athleticism and some managers in the Pioneer League thought that his impressive season was largely because he had an advanced approach against inexperienced pitchers. He's still an org player for now, but every year some org players prove everyone wrong by making it to the majors.

J.J. Cooper: I'll throw one out -- Josh Ravin was very impressive in his first pro season. The former Chatsworth High product has a good body and an advanced approach. It wouldn't be a surprise if he has a breakthrough season in Dayton this year.

J.J. Cooper: Dickerson had a great start to 2005 then tailed off. In 2006 he started slow but finished strong. Dickerson likely will end up as a platoon player, but he does have enough tools to project as a useful big leaguer. I'd expect to see him in Triple-A this year.

J.J. Cooper: None will ever be a .300 hitter, but Strait's most likely to reach his full potential.

J.J. Cooper: This top 10 has gotten much tougher to crack in the past year--a year ago Miguel Perez ranked No. 7...put him in the same situation this year and he would have ranked probably No. 14. But the Reds clearly are still working on building up the farm system's depth. With Homer Bailey and Joey Votto potentially making it to the majors this season, this list has a decent chance of looking worse next year than this year, but with another solid draft, I would expect that a year or two from now it will be tougher to crack the Top 10, even if it the very top end of the list may show a dropoff.

J.J. Cooper: It's interesting that you mentioned Michael Young. New scouting director Chris Buckley was with the Blue Jays in the late 1990s and early 2000s. While he was there, the Blue Jays had Michael Young, Cesar Izturis, Chris Woodward, Ryan Freel, Tomas Perez, Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez and Brent Abernathy in their farm system at shortstop and second base. Buckley clearly believes in finding middle infielders, and he's brought that emphasis to Cincinnati.

J.J. Cooper: I'd agree with you on that, but he's yet to show any signs that the power's developing. The old adage is that power is the last tool to appear, and Gutierrez has always looked like he'll develop power-he's a big guy. But at this point it's hard to say that a guy in his sixth year in the minors will all of a sudden develop the power that has been absent for his entire minor league career--especially as his swing doesn't seem that conducive to hitting home runs.

J.J. Cooper: Impact talent is more important than depth, because big league stars is what leads a team to championships more than a slew of No. 4 starters and utility infielders. If you go by that approach the Reds have made some impressive strides as they now have two prospects who are among the best in baseball and another who ranks near the top tier. The depth is still weak compared to the top-level farm systems, but it's been an impressive rise for the Reds.

J.J. Cooper: Hmm, interesting question. It's hard to give full credit to either one, but that's because the farm system is a sum of many, many parts. A GM sets the philosophy, but the scouting director, farm director, roving coaches, coaches and scouts are much more responsible for the day-to-day improvement in the farm system than the guy at the top.

J.J. Cooper: Lecure is a polished pitcher without any one pitch that stands out, although he does have solid stuff. He knows how to pitch, so we'll see if he can keep making adjustments to stay ahead of hitters as he moves up the ladder.

J.J. Cooper: Probably somewhere in the low teens...

J.J. Cooper: The rules for making those lineups is that we have to assume that any current player on the team will remain on that team through 2010. So while Dunn may not be there in 2010, we have to assume he will be when projecting the lineup.

J.J. Cooper: The Reds managed to deal for a number of big leaguers without cutting into their core talent. Some of the guys (like Ward and Brandon Roberts) might be useful major leaguers, but none are projected to be big league stars.

J.J. Cooper: Bruce.

J.J. Cooper: Expect to wait until 2008. He is just getting ready to play high Class A.

J.J. Cooper: Buy the Prospect Handbook (available now) and you can read about the 11-30 guys. Hopefully you can tell from this chat some of the guys who made the 11-30 list. Cody Strait and Sam Lecure are two guys who impressed this year and just missed the Top 10.

J.J. Cooper: As far as guys who people haven't heard a lot about--Juan Francisco is an interesting 3B.

J.J. Cooper: Sorry guys, I was hear at 3 p.m...a quirk of our chat software meant that the first answer didn't post til I had answered the first set of questions...

J.J. Cooper: He joined the list of Reds pitching prospects who were wiped out by injuries.

J.J. Cooper: Not going to give away the full top 30 from the Prospect Handbook, but it's safe to say that the star is dimming on Szymanski's prospect status. He's in a difficult situation this year--he really can't head back to Dayton for a third season, but at the same time it's hard to promote a guy to high Class A on the heels of a .239-.309-.415 season in Low Class A.

J.J. Cooper: Like the format of the question. I'll say Josh Ravin will have a breakout season and I'll guess that B.J. Szymanski will struggle. See above answers for the reasons.

J.J. Cooper: Arneson was one of the more impressive lefties in the Pioneer League. There are some concerns about his fastball command but he showed an adequate fastball and a potentially plus change. I'd expect to see him ticketed for Dayton this year. His ceiling is as a No. 4-No. 5 starter but more likely as a solid reliever.

J.J. Cooper: More because someone has to be on the list at catcher. Too many questions about his bat to project him as more than a big league backup at this point.

J.J. Cooper: Bright. His stuff was better than the reports everyone was getting heading into the draft. He has a free and easy delivery and the kind of stuff and poise that should allow him to move up relatively quickly for a high school draftee.

J.J. Cooper: What I said was that they weren't a top 5 system. If someone else told you that I'd say they're mistaken. It's a better system than it was a year or two years ago, but it's not a top 5 system.

J.J. Cooper: Gil has one of the best arms in the minors and plus power, but his swing real hard and hope to hit it approach has left him prone to being carved up by Triple-A pitchers, and major leaguers would quickly figure out to never throw him a hittable strike unless he improves his approach.

J.J. Cooper: Fisher has shown a solid fastball and is developing a feel for a changeup. He could develop into a solid innings eater as he has pretty good stuff and a good body.

J.J. Cooper: One more B.J. question. Syzmanski needs to show he can hit righties, something that he hasn't done yet. If he doesn't improve soon, it might be time to give up switch hitting.

J.J. Cooper: I was hoping for a Rojas question. He's another interesting sleeper with a very good fastball. A former outfielder who made a wise decision to move to the mound (he had a .167 career average). I'd expect to see him in Sarasota where he'll probably have Lanier as a teammate.

J.J. Cooper: Actually I think the question is even more out there after he had the same problems in pro ball as he had in college. Stubbs isn't on a fast track yet because he needs to take it slow and cut down the strikeouts. There's no reason to rush a guy who hit .240 in rookie ball.

J.J. Cooper: If Thompson can prove he's bounced back from shoulder surgery he could help the Reds forget about last year's Nats deal. Thompson had plus stuff before the injury and there are signs he's getting it back. He'll be an interesting guy to watch in 2007.

J.J. Cooper: Both. This is a better top 10, but B.J. went from being a toolsy guy with some injury problems to a guy who struggled mightily in his second year in low A.