Seattle Mariners: Top 10 Prospects Chat

Seattle Mariners: Chat




Baseball America's Top 10 Prospects lists are based on projections of a player's long-term worth after discussions with scouting and player-development personnel. All players who haven't exceeded the major league rookie standards of 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched (without regard to service time) are eligible. Ages are as of April 1, 2007.

Q:  Mick from Chicago asks:
Are the Mariners so alarmed of the unusually high ratio KAB that Chris Snelling had while in the majors last year, that they aren't willing to give him a starting OF shot? Was he hurt? I don't remember him striking out at nearly that high rate in any of his minor league stints.
 A: 

Jim Callis: I don't think so. Snelling doesn't qualify for the Top Prospects list any longer because he has too many big league AB, so I didn't dwell on him. But you're talking about just a 96-AB sample and maybe he was trying to hit for more power. That said, I don't think the Mariners are committing to him as a likely starter because he hasn't been able to stay healthy. Until he does, it's hard to count on him. I still like his bat, though.

 Q:  Matt from Houston, Tx asks:
How good of a prospect is Alex Liddi? He's a pretty god natural athlete and is very advanced for someone out of Europe at his age. Where (if) would he rank in the top 30?
 A: 

Jim Callis: Everything Matt says is true. He's a very interesting guy, but also very far away from the majors. He intrigues me, but I have him in the 21-30 range until we see more from him. He's still very raw.

 Q:  Phil Duryea from Seattle asks:
Where does Matt Tuiasosopo fit into the Mariners future? Also what is your feeling on 2006 16th rounder Austin-Bibens Dirkx he seemed to have a good debut.
 A: 

Jim Callis: The Mariners are still high on Tuiasosopo, but he has to develop a lot more at the plate before he'll be ready to hit in the majors. There's still a lot of upside there, but not a huge likelihood that he'll reach his ceiling. Bibens-Dirkx has a lot of life on his sinker-slider combo and could become a setup man one day.

 Q:  Bertram from Taiwan asks:
With Johjima proving he can handle catching duties in the majors, will Clement move to 1BDH? What kind of power potential would he have if he was moved from behind the plate?
 A: 

Jim Callis: Clement isn't ready for the majors yet, so the Mariners will try to enhance his value by keeping him behind the plate. But as soon as his bat is ready, it sounds like they'll bring him up and find a spot for him, probably at 1B (if Richie Sexson has been traded) or DH.

 Q:  Nelson from Tacoma asks:
Are the M's going to regret the fact they passed on Tim Lincecum and Andrew Miller when they picked Morrow?
 A: 

Jim Callis: The Mariners, like the other teams in the 2-5 slots, weren't going to pay what it was going to take to sign Miller. I would have taken Lincecum over Morrow, but Morrow wasn't a reach and should be a fine pick in his own right.

 Q:  Ben from Seattle asks:
Where does someone like Emiliano Fruto fit in the prospect rankings? Thanks.
 A: 

Jim Callis: He's in the 11-20 range. Fruto is an enigma. He has the best repertoire among all of Seattle's pitching prospects, but for a variety of reasons can't be trusted to handle anything more than a setup role. On pure stuff, he'd rank about No. 5 on this list.

 Q:  John from Harrisonburg, VA asks:
Stan Posluszny: obviously not a high draft pick, but he has tons of power. Does he have a shot, or will he always be the lesser-known Posluszny brother?
 A: 

Jim Callis: He has a shot, but it's a longshot as a 34th-round pick. Not sure he'll ever eclipse the status of his brother Paul, one of the best linebackers in college football and headed for the NFL.

 Q:  Brett from Waukegan, IL asks:
With Jose Guillen on board is Jones headed back to AAA or will Ibanez move to DH for Jones in LF?
 A: 

Jim Callis: A lot determines on what happens in the spring. Jones' arm would be wasted somewhat in left field, too. I think he'll get a half-season in Triple-A while the Mariners figure out exactly where to put him.

 Q:  Steve from DeKalb, IL asks:
Brandon Morrow-starter or reliever?
 A: 

Jim Callis: Good question. The Mariners think starter. Most of the clubs I talked to before the draft projected him as a reliever. No harm in trying him in the rotation now and moving him to the bullpen if it doesn't work out.

 Q:  Warren from Texas asks:
I understand why Michael Saunders was not in the top 10, but does he make the top 20? What are his long-term prospects? Thanks for the chat!
 A: 

Jim Callis: He just snuck onto the list at No. 30. He's a lot like Tuiasosopo in that Saunders has a lot of physical ability but has a long, long ways to go.

 Q:  Nelson from Tacoma asks:
I am assuming that Mark Lowe pitched too many innings this year to be considered among the Mariners top prospects. What is his prognosis of recovery and will he pitch for them in 07? It doesn't matter because if he comes back healthy and becomes a dude...Bavasi will trade him away!
 A: 

Jim Callis: Nelson, he's on the Top 10 at No. 7. That said, I had no idea where to rank Lowe. He showed a plus fastball and wipeout slider while rushing from high Class A to the majors this year, and he pitched well in Seattle. But he went down with elbow problems, and doctors found out he was pitching with bone on bone in the joint, and I can't find a similar case. I have no idea if that's something Lowe can come back from at 100 percent.

 Q:  Jack B. from Seattle asks:
It doesn't seem like many of the Mariners' top picks turn out very well. Since A-Rod, you could say maybe Meche has done well, but not great. And, they've used their top picks for what many might call reaches (like Garciaparra). Is there a reason or explanation for what seems pretty systemic? It never seems the Ms really develop any above-average players -- their best players come via free agencytrade or are signed from overseas at a relatively mature state (Betancourt, Ichiri, Jojima, Felix).
 A: 

Jim Callis: Good question. For years, the Mariners lost a lot of premium picks as free-agent compensation, but recently they've played so poorly that their top choices have been protected. The picks they've made, most of them haven't worked out well, and you're right, they've done much better internationally. The Mariners probably have the highest ratio of time and money spent internationally vs. domestically in recent years, so that's probably the biggest reason.

 Q:  seattle slew from chicago asks:
Where do you rank Robert Rohrbaugh and what do you think is his eta in Seattle if he is in the mix?
 A: 

Jim Callis: He's a lefty who throws three pitches for strikes. Not a high-ceiling guy, but maybe a back-of-the-rotation starter. He could be ready by mid-2008.

 Q:  Steve from DeKalb, IL asks:
Jeremy Reed has been a disapointment so far, do you think he show the potential he did a couple of years ago? Looks like Seattle has gave up on him.
 A: 

Jim Callis: I wouldn't say they've given up on him yet, but Reed has been a huge disappointment the last two years. I've always thought expectations for fans were too high, based on the big year he had in the White Sox system that now looks like an aberration. I always saw him as a Mark Kotsay type rather than a future batting champ. I remember talking to Jerry Crasnick, who got a lot of hate e-mail after he wrote an ESPN.com column likening Reed to Reed Johnson. I think the Mariners would love for Jeremy Reed to match Reed Johnson's 2006 numbers now.

 Q:  Alexander from Wisconsin asks:
Thanks for the great chat. Other than Buter and Tillman, who are other players that may play for Wisconsin in the midwest league. Thanks a lot.
 A: 

Jim Callis: Carlos Triunfel, who signed for $1.3 million out of the Dominican this summer, is so advanced that he may make his pro debut at Wisconsin. Other possibilities, in no particular order: C Adam Moore, 3B Alex Liddi, INF Chris Minaker, OF Greg Halman, LHP Tony Butler, LHP Steve Uhlmansiek, RHP Chris Tillman, RHP Doug Fister, RHP Ricky Orta, RHP Kam Mickolio. Could be an interesting club.

 Q:  Tim from (Quincy, MA) asks:
Do either Morrow or Butler project as number ones?
 A: 

Jim Callis: I'm conservative on that front, so I'd say they're more No. 2 starters to me.

 Q:  Greg Pirkl from Seattle, WA asks:
If Morrow refines his change-up, does he have a chance to be a #1 guy or more of a #2-3? Are the forearm concerns completely over?
 A: 

Jim Callis: I'd still say No. 2. As for his forearm, it was fine and he returned at the end of the summer to pitch in high Class A. The Mariners were just trying to be extremely cautious.

 Q:  Eric from Cleveland asks:
How would you rate the M's farm system now versus what it was like when Bavasi took over? To me it doesn't look like there's been any improvement and he continues to run this franchise into the ground.
 A: 

Jim Callis: Not much has gone right for Bill Bavasi in Seattle. The farm system has dipped some, but you can't blame that on him. It's really been mostly the result of graduating a lot of players (starting with Felix Hernandez) to the majors and needing time to replenish. The Mariners have actually drafted better under Bavasi than they did under Pat Gillick.

 Q:  Bruce from Tucson, AZ asks:
Jim, what is the scouting report on Carlos Triunfel? It seem with the amount of his signing bonus that he should be a top prospect.
 A: 

Jim Callis: I hedged my bets a little because he's so young and has yet to have a pro AB, so I went with guys who have accomplished a lot more (and have some ceiling) in the Top 10. Triunfel is No. 11 (I won't divulge any other exact rankings in the 11-30 range), and here's what I wrote about him . . . Long a major player on the international stage, the Mariners shelled out $1.9 million last summer to sign a pair of Latin American middle infielders. Triunfel, a Dominican, received $1.3 million, while Mario Martinez, a Venezuelan, got $600,000. Other clubs offered Triunfel more money, but he felt most comfortable signing with Seattle. A potential five-tool shortstop, he looked so good on offense and defense in instructional league that the Mariners will consider allowing him to start his pro career in low Class A—at age 17. Triunfel has the ability to hit for average and power. He has natural strength and already drives balls with backspin that will allow them to carry out of the park once he matures physically. He has an advanced approach and hung in well against more advanced pitchers in instructional league. Triunfel is an above-average runner with good hands and a strong, accurate arm. Seattle can't wait to see what he will do in 2007.

 Q:  Danny from NJ asks:
If the M's trade Sexson, do they move Clement to 1B in AAA and let him take over there next year?
 A: 

Jim Callis: I touched on this a little earlier. In this specific scenario, yeah, I could see that happening. The Mariners are most concerned with getting Clement's bat in their lineup, and if it's at first base, so be it.

 Q:  tiffythetitan from Oakland, CA asks:
In the recent past both the Giants and Mariners have given away draft picks as if they didn't want them...which farm system is better at this point? I know the Giants made a big international signing this year but the Mariners seem to have the international pipeline running constantly. Does this give them the edge?
 A: 

Jim Callis: Tiffy, that's a fair assessment. I would put Seattle ahead, and the international pipeline would be the reason why. I do love Tim Lincecum as a prospect, though.

 Q:  Mark Lowe from Seattle asks:
Jim, where would I have ranked on this list if I didn't have elbow problems?
 A: 

Jim Callis: Either at No. 4 or No. 5. Definitely behind the clear top three (Adam Jones, Jeff Clement, Brandon Morrow) and either right ahead of or behind Tony Butler.

 Q:  Jeff Sullivan from Belchertown MA asks:
Why would Tillman be ranked below Lowe?
 A: 

Jim Callis: I'm not as sold on Tillman as I am on, say, fellow 2006 high school draftee Tony Butler. Tillman has a good arm but there are some questions about his maturity and mental toughness. But as I mentioned earlier, Lowe was a wild card. You can easily make a case that Tillman will do more in the majors than Lowe will in the future.

 Q:  Bill from Seattle asks:
Should Cha-Seung Baek make my rotation this year?
 A: 

Jim Callis: Maybe at the back end. He's a No. 5middle reliever type for me.

 Q:  Buz from Tacoma asks:
Did Michael Wilson stop switch hitting? Does this change his value in your eyes? What's his ceiling?
 A: 

Jim Callis: He did in 2005, which coincided with his takeoff. He improved at the plate. His ceiling is as an everyday left fielder with power.

 Q:  Joe Hamilton from Shoreline WA asks:
Hi Jim, you're 3 days early. Your on line schedule says Dec. 11 for the M's, unless I can't read. Anyway, whatever happened to RHP Chia an Huang that you guys were so high on 2 years ago. He disappeared last year. Thanks, Joe Hamilton
 A: 

Jim Callis: They're having technical difficulties in Durham, so I was pressed into service a little ahead of schedule. Get those Mariners questions in! As for Huang, he never pitched in a a game this season while battling shoulder problems. I'll drop an unsolicited plug in here: For info on Taiwanese prospects, the site taiwanbaseball.blogspot.com is tremendous.

 Q:  Phil from Seattle asks:
Now that the M's have foolishly dealt Rafael Soriano for a mediocre left handed starter, how does that affect Travis Blackley's future in the organization?
 A: 

Jim Callis: I didn't get that trade either. Not a Horacio Ramirez fan, and I've always liked Rafael Soriano, injury problems notwithstanding. Blackley's stuff isn't all the way back to where it was before he had shoulder surgery, but he regained the confidence he lost quickly in the majors in 2004. I don't think the deal affects him a whole lot. Blackley was probably going to spend much of 2007 in Triple-A regardless, and he'll get a shot when ready. He's probably no more than a No. 4 or 5 starter.

 Q:  Jonathan Quayle Higgins III from Honolulu, HI asks:
Tony Butler looks like a great pick. Who would you compare him to in the majors? Will he challenge for some strikeout crowns in the future? (Note, a guy picked him in my fantasy league this year and this guy never misses)
 A: 

Jim Callis: Butler is good and looks like one of the steals of the 2006 draft, but I don't see him as a future strikeout leader. I'm terrible on comps . . . Maybe Scott Olsen?

 Q:  Browning Nagle from Louisville, KY asks:
Is Jeff Clement similar to Varitek at the same stage? I remember questions about his catching abilities when he was younger. How do their bats compare?
 A: 

Jim Callis: Yes and no. Varitek needed some polish, but he was more highly regarded as a defender. Offensively, Clement has a lot more power than Varitek did at the time.

 Q:  Jason from Texas asks:
Does Kam Mickolio fit in your top 20 prospects for the Mariners and do you see the M's pushing him through the system fast due to his age?
 A: 

Jim Callis: Mickolio just missed the Top 30. I don't think they'll rush him too much because he's not very consistent at this point. Sometimes looks great, other times somewhat clueless. He'll need some time.

 Q:  Asdrubal Oropeza from Atlanta, GA asks:
Adam Jones' plate discipline is really worrisome to me. Are the Mariners trying to get him to walk more or are they just letting him be who he is? Is he more of a .260 hitter or .290 guy?
 A: 

Jim Callis: They'd like him to walk more but that's easier said than done. He's probably not going to draw more than 40-50 free passes per year and he's going to have some strikeouts. He's more of a .260 hitter, but he should offer good power, speed and CF defense.

 Q:  GoonSquad from Row 28, Cheney Stadium asks:
How do you see the development of Rob Johnson and Jeff Clement, considering they are slated to share time again in Triple-A. Many have worried about such a situation, but I have been told that catchers get so much better between games, than they do during them. Your thoughts?
 A: 

Jim Callis: I don't buy that argument. The plan is to have both guys sharing the catching at Tacoma, with Clement getting extra AB at DH or maybe 1B, and Johnson working on his versatility by seeing action at the corner infield and outfield spots. I don't understand the rush with Johjima already in the majors. I would have had Clement in Double-A and Johnson in high Class A for most of 2006, and I wouldn't want to have either guy above Double-A (or on the same club) to start 2007. But the Mariners don't want to send either guy back a level.

 Q:  Dean from Madison asks:
Is Jeff Clement being rushed too much? Is he already "damaged"?
 A: 

Jim Callis: He is being rushed too much but I don't think he's being ruined. It may take him a little while to catch his breath, but he'll be fine.

 Q:  Michael Stern from Rochester NY asks:
How close was Bryan Lahair to making the top 10? Does he have a chance to be the M's regular 1B of the future? His bat seems to be the real deal - but how does he project defensively?
 A: 

Jim Callis: He was in the 11-20 range. The Mariners like his bat and I do too. I could see him hitting for average along with 20-homer power, and that's probably not enough to play regularly at first base on a good team. He's an adequate defender at first base and probably can't play elsewhere. He also needs to improve against lefthanders.

 Q:  Chris Antonetti, New M's GM from Halfway to Seattle from Cleveland asks:
Can you talk some about Greg Halman, the kid who showed some raw power and athletic ability in SS Everett last summer?
 A: 

Jim Callis: The Mariners have a lot of toolsy young foreign outfielders they like, from Halman (Netherlands) to Carlos Peguero (Dominican Republic) to Michael Saunders (Canada) to Kuo-Hui Lo (Taiwan) to Kalliam Sams (Netherlands). That's the order I'd rank them in. Halman has the ability to hit for average and power, runs well for his size and may be able to steal bases and play in center. He's still raw, but he's exciting. He broke his hand in an on-field fight last summer, costing him some needed at-bats.

 Q:  Matt from Iowa asks:
How does Seattle stack up against the rest of the AL West?
 A: 

Jim Callis: If we're talking about the major league club, I'd pick the Mariners to finish fourth in 2007. If we're talking about the farm system, they're behind the Angels and maybe slightly ahead of the Rangers and Athletics.

 Q:  Kevin from Pittsburgh asks:
Adam Jones or Lastings Milledge...who's better long-term? Both seem to be similar style players to me, both may have been rushed by their teams to the majors.
 A: 

Jim Callis: I'd give a slight edge to Milledge, whom the Mets seem to be more than willing to trade. I think he might hit for a little more average and get on base a little more, with the other tools being similar.

 Q:  Tim K. from Portland, OR asks:
Where would Choo and Asdrubal Cabrera rank on this list if they were still in the system?
 A: 

Jim Callis: Choo wouldn't qualify, because he got too many big league AB. If he did qualify, I'd put him at No. 5 behind Butler. With Cabrera, he'd be in the mix somewhere between 14-20.

 Q:  AC from 1st and Royal Brougham asks:
Justin Thomas or Robert Rohrbaugh, who each probably at least got consideration for the top 30, if they didn't earn a spot in the 20-30 range. Can either START in the bigs?
 A: 

Jim Callis: I covered Rohrbaugh a little earlier. I really like Thomas and think he's the best "unknown" prospect in the system. He could be a No. 3 starter in the big leagues if it all works out, while Rohrbaugh is more of a back-of-the-rotation guy at best.

 Q:  Stan from Stanwood asks:
I was really disgusted with the way the Mariners threw Travis Chick to the wolves. He may never recover... Your opinion?
 A: 

Jim Callis: I don't think the five big league innings will kill him. Chick has a good arm but never has been consistent and is more of a tease than someone to really count on.

 Q:  Bob from Seattle asks:
I know that the M's pitching has been pathetic, but do you really see four of these guys (Morrow, Tillman, Feierabend and Butler in their rotation by 2010? How good can that rotation be..besides REALLY young?
 A: 

Jim Callis: Take those 2010 lineups with a grain of salt. A lot will change between now and then. They're simply a quick look at how the depth chart looks based on the organization right at this moment.

Moderator: That's it for today. We'll be back Monday with Aaron Fitt gabbing about the Rangers. See you then!