John Manuel: Here we go yo . . . Twins Prospects chat. Keep 'em coming, I'm here for a while.

John Manuel: Alex Romero got caught. There are several Alex Romero's in the Twins system—Trent Oeltjen and Garrett Guzman have similar tools, similar age, similar ceilings. I just don't know that any of these guys profile as locks to start in the major leagues, and in fact, all of them are better fits as fourth outfielders. Romero is supposed to have the best tools of the group, but he's still kind of a tweener. With a good year in Triple-A, or maybe with a good spring this year, he could jump up and take over a spot in the outfield. But I don't believe any of these guys are big parts of the Twins future, frankly.

John Manuel: Good question . . . The Twins system has pitching depth out the yazoo, but it's not as strong as I thought it would be going in. For me, the White Sox system is No. 5, and that's a clear call for me. But for the other four, I think it comes down to personal preference. My preference would be to rank 'em Twins (depth of pitching is just so strong, and I believe in Parmelee and Benson); Royals (star potential, no depth); Tigers (star potential, fewer stars than Royals but slightly more depth); Indians (after Adam Miller, you could rank 2-10 any way you want). But there's really not a huge difference between Twins and Indians. My guess is all four of these systems will be 11-20 range when we rank the systems, and they will be pretty bunched up.

John Manuel: Stuff and being lefthanded, and he's done it in the major leagues. I love Kevin Slowey as a prospect, love the makeup, love the fastball command . . . I still don't think his ceiling is significantly higher than Perkins', and it's harder to find lefties with plus stuff and a track record of solid performance. I also want to see Slowey's secondary stuff play better at higher levels. That said, he did it against Cuba in Havana. That's hard. There's not a huge difference between them, and tie goes to the LHP.

John Manuel: One quick note . . . we can only see a certain number of questions per screen in these chats, and I usually like to go through and cull questions I don't like before picking ones to answer. I haven't deleted one yet, great questions so far.

John Manuel: Great question that I want to address more with pitchingn coordinators and pitching coaches as I continue reporting . . . My gut is, fastball command is the building block that pitching success is built on. If you do not command the fastball, you will not be a good pitcher in the major leagues. This is one reason I have never believed, for example, in Jason Neighborgall. It's a big reason I believe in Kevin Slowey. You can slap a 70 grade on his fastball command; I think some people might give him an 80. But is that enough on its own? The consensus seems to be no; you cannot be a major league starter effectively with just one solid-average or plus pitch, even if it's a fastball that you throw 75-90 percent of the time. He just has to have a secondary pitch he commands consistently and that is average in terms of velocity, movement, deception, etc. I do think that if you command the fastball like Slowey does, it is less important to have two or three quality secondary pitches. He could only need one secondary one, because his FB and FB command are so good.

John Manuel: He's probably in the top 30 but was not a factor for the top 10 for me. He's probably going to be a reliever, with his delivery and his stuff and his mentality. Then if he's a reliever, is he better than Eduardo Morlan, or Pat Neshek, or Jose Mijares, or Tim Lahey, or Yohan Pino, or . . . it's tough to project relievers. Ward would have been top 10 in the Reds system, and he's not really—in my mind—close to top 10 for the Twins. That says something about the Twins' system, but more about the Reds, IMO.

John Manuel: He's off the radar. He's hurt a lot, his makeup is in question, he was over-rated by the Cubs when they drafted him. I think it's safe to say that the Cubs, BA and other organizations were too optimistic about a lot of the Cubs' pitchers in the early part of this decade (Jones, Brownlie, Blasko, Hagerty, Petrick, Ryu, Ben Christensen . . . ). Jones has not fulfilled his projections, and probably never will.

John Manuel: Great question, lots of debate within the organization about this one. Kirwan probably has a better chance to start long-term, there's more projection involved with him, but until today, I would have said Kirwan. Now, I'm gonna say Burnett . . . the more you report on these, the more information you get, the more your opinions change. Burnett sounds like he has two consistent power pitches with a fastball and big curve. If it all comes together, Burnett sounds a little like Roy Oswalt (!!!) . . . I think at his size and stuff, more people think of him as a bullpen guy, but a very good bullpen guy. I'm going Burnett.

John Manuel: Many of them are not alone. Swarzak's stuff was down for part of this year; he was not throwing as consistently hard as he did in 2005. He made an adjustment with how he starts his delivery, how he stands on the rubber, that helped him finish so strong. His ceiling might be higher than Perkins' or Slowey's, I won't argue that. But those guys have very similar ceilings—maybe Swarzak's a 2, and those guys are 2-3 profiles in terms of their ceilings. When it's that close, I like to rank the A-ball guy lower. But there are people in the Twins system who agree with you guys. I do believe the top 5 Twins prospects are top 100 guys.

John Manuel: Just hasn't been eligible for two years.

John Manuel: One more from Tim . . . yes, Speigner can be effective, he's got a low-90s fastball and a solid curveball, he can be a piece, but he's a bit lower down the depth chart. Not a top 30 guy but will be on the depth chart in the Prospect Handbook.

John Manuel: Morlan's got nasty stuff at times, he's just not consistent. Waldrop is almost too consistent, because he hasn't had the same stuff he had when the Twins drafted him. There's more projection with Waldrop; the Twins (and Waldrop) need to wait a couple of years before they really know what he is. He's still growing into his body; who's to say his 86-90 mph fastball won't be sitting 91-93 in two years? He's going to be bigger than 6-4 190 when it's all said and done, more like 6-5, 220 or so. But with all that projection, I was less comfortable putting him into the top 10. I thought Durbin was a fun No. 10. Morlan could move quick, but his inconsistency was too much for me to rank him in the 10.

John Manuel: Thank you for the compliment. Benson at 8 is all about ceiling, and me believing in his athletic ability and ceiling. Kelly ranks at No. 9 because after Casilla, he's their best middle-of-the-diamond guy, and the Twins and the scouts we've talked to believe he will hit. I believe I've addressed Morlan. Smit . . . he's such an unusual prospect. He's just atypical. He had success this year when the Twins stopped trying to shoehorn him into a more "normal" delivery and repertoire. But there aren't a lot of guys who pitch like Smit. He's still learning to be a pro. He's 11-20 range, and there's ceiling, but he's not as close to the big leagues as his low A numbers indicate.

John Manuel: And on Plouffe, no, they haven't. Kelly has passed him in terms of prospecty-ness, at least for me, but Plouffe finished well in August, and had a good instructional league. The tools are still there. Why they don't play . . . that's a good question, and that's why he's not in the top 10. But tools-wise, he's a top 10 guy. Being young for the league can only take him so long. He needs to show he can do it for more than just one month.

John Manuel: They're both in the 11-20 range. The ceiling for Moses as a hitter seems to be lower than it was before. I don't think you can think of Matt Moses as a No. 3 or no. 4 hitter anymore—he's too streaky, doesn't control the strike zone, his power comes and goes. For me, that's more of a No. 6 or No. 7 hitter than a No. 3 hitter. He might get to the majors and hit .250 with 20 homers but 130-140 strikeouts. And if he's not playing 3b, then that's not going to cut it, and his defense at 3b is in question. Span . . . to quote Jim Callis, I'm not crazy about that profile. Speed guy, doesn't have great instincts and doesn't steal enough bases efficiently, doesn't hit for a ton of power . . . he needs to get better, more skilled, to avoid being Kerry Robinson or Jason Tyner or some such.

John Manuel: Didn't you used to be Browning Nagle? Welcome back to the chats . . . Not very close between those guys. Not sure whom I would have ranked No. 1 had Garza pitched one-third more of an IP. I take more chances with ceiling at No. 1—that's not a place to be conservative with a ranking. I might have ranked Swarzak or Parmelee No. 1 had Garza not been eligible. Perkins and Slowey just don't seem like No. 1 guys to me. I'd rather take more of a risk, with ceiling, at No. 1 than I would at, say, No. 6. I mean, Pat Neshek is No. 6 because he's done it in the big leagues, but No. 8 Joe Benson's ceiling is a lot higher. He could be a 5-tool CF, vs. a middle reliever. But one guy's done it in the big leagues and dominated as a middle guy, the other one's been on fumes in the Midwest League playing 50 pro games and has never played a full season of baseball. That's the fun part, though, at least for me.

John Manuel: Just act like this year never happened. He had wrist problems, had to re-do the wrist surgery because it was botched in high school, and he will start over next year. His ceiling is still seen as higher than, say, Erik Lis, who took over for Sanchez and raked in the MWL.

John Manuel: He did, but not for me, not a top 30 guy, he has some tools, but this system's pretty deep, and Olson sounds like more of a utility guy, whereas fellow 2006 draftees such as Danny Valencia and Whit Robbins have more of a chance to be everyday guys. Those two probably will make the top 30 ahead of Olson . . . I'm still writing it, I'm such a slacker.

John Manuel: I'm surprised to have fewer questions about Durbin. The "Real Deal" isn't the "Real Deal" anymore, he's grown up some, and I'm not as worried about the BB-K rates as you are. Check Boof Bonser's minor league ratios and then see what he did in the big leagues. Durbin's makeup and stuff are such that he will be able to step his game up when he gets to the big leagues, and he'll challenge hitters with his power stuff. As to being a reliever . . . I go back to my fastball command deal. It sounds like Durbin has some fastball command; he tries to bury the curveball too frequently and tries to get cute. If he commands the fastball, he'll start, if he doesn't, he has the equipment to relieve.

John Manuel: Lis' value is just about 100 percent in his bat, and while he hit in the MWL, he was old for it and he's not a guy with a good body or a athletic ability. He can hit, though; maybe I'm undervaluing him. The Twins will not discard hitters with no other value after getting rid of David Ortiz, you know? They've learned their lesson.

John Manuel: He got traded to the Cubs (for Phil Nevin), so now he's jim Callis' problem.

John Manuel: I like Devin Shepherd a bit, but I don't know that not signing him kills the Twins, they spent the money to sign second-day draft guys like Nick Papasan and Danny Valencia, and they like those guys. Let's see Shepherd to it consistently and not just in showcases, that's the sense a lot of scouts were giving us in the run-up to the '06 draft. I do think he'll have a good career at Oklahoma and is a great recruiting pickup for Sunny Golloway & Co.

John Manuel: yeah, he could if he has a big year and he learns what it takes for him to grind through an entire season as a pitcher. This was first time he ever did it, and he had the inevitable dead-arm period, and now he's through it. If he can bring the 94-95 mph fastball full-time in 2007, he could be a piece of the bullpen, no doubt. But he has to show more, and more consistent, velo than he did in '06.

John Manuel: Let me tell you something mean Gene . . . I am not worried about GCL numbers, unless they are super, super bad (or super, super good). Parmelee hit for a lot of power for a guy hitting with wood against pro pitchers for the first time, and the Twins think he has more power potential than they reckoned he had before the draft. I've talked to a lot of people about Parmelee and believe he'll move quickly, probably finish 2006 at Fort Myers, and push for a big league job by the end of 2008. By that time, Benson's probably going to be finishing A-ball. Benson has more work to do on pitch recognition, running the bases, repeating his swing—just experience things. I could be selling Benson short; I know I talked to one member of the organization believes Benson's ceiling is higher than Parmelee. But Parmelee's ceiling is significant, a 30-homer corner guy with an RF arm. T

John Manuel: Good to hear from you Kenny. Rainville had a good instructional league and is definitely still in the mix after missing all of '06, he'll be at Fort Myers probably in '07, and to a man, everyone in the organization that I've talked to still believes in him.

John Manuel: Gonna try to go a little more lightning round, I would like to eat lunch sometime soon . . .

John Manuel: Winfree's not all bat, it's his main calling card, but he's OK at 3B, not a slug, and yes, he can hit. He's 11-20 range too, and if he hadn't had his spring-training mental meltdown might have been in the top 10. You just have to count it against a guy when they basically walk away from the game for a short time. While he seemed to benefit from it, I think it says a little about his ability to handle adversity. It sounds like that's in the past—I liked the feature we had on him in the AFL and what he had to say on the subject. But that's still a big matzah ball hanging out there . . .

John Manuel: Absolutely, I think Slowey does have a shot, but I think Durbin, if he's healthy, is ahead in the pecking order.

John Manuel: It's as simple as this for Swarzak: he was 88-91 mph a lot of this year. He was averaging 90 mph much of the season, he just didn't have consistent stuff, and Perkins has had consistent stuff, is lefthanded and had pretty nice secondary numbers. He's a three-pitch guy, not 3 OK pitches, three solid average to plus pitches, and he's lefthanded. Am I the crazy one? I like that profile.

John Manuel: As for the lineups . . . I'm not a fan of those, but it's not just my call, people seem to dig them, and the customer is always right, right? There just wasn't room for Swarzak with Santana, Liriano, Garza, Boof and the guys who ranked ahead of him. That's just a "what-if" lineup, not a prediction. Swarzak is viewed as a future starter; he just has work to do to get to his ceiling, and Perkins has less work to do, and is lefthanded, and their ceilings are pretty close. For me, you're underselling Glen Perkins.

John Manuel: Good tools, plays hard, just not producing like they think he can, can play SS, might be better offensively with less to do defensively, plus there's organizational need at 3B, so maybe he slides there sooner than later.

John Manuel: Yes, he could, but more likely, he apprentices in '07 as a reserve at both 2b and SS (maybe even 3b), then takes over at 2b for Luis Castillo in '07.

John Manuel: Garces didn't get huge until after he got to the majors. Based only on stuff, Mijares ranks only behind Matt Garza in the system, seriously. On any given night, Mijares has 3 pitches that are plus-plus. He's just kind of squandering his ability with his inability to be a pro. He's not in shape, he's not dedicated, he's quit several times and come back, and did it again this winter—he quit his winter ball team. Hard to know where to rank such a player, and he keeps falling for me, but he'll be in the 30.

John Manuel: He's capable, but I don't believe he will. I think the Twins will have to go outside the organization to fill that spot. Luckily, they have the pitching depth to make such a deal.

John Manuel: Don't have the injury in front of me, but he was back in the Appy League this year, rebuilding arm strength, touched a few 90 mph readings, so we'll really know about him next year. He was an athletic, loose-armed guy in college, if he still has a loose arm after the surgery he had, he could still have the same ceiling that he had when he was drafted, which was a No. 3-type of starter.

John Manuel: Not in the 30, both more role players, and the Twins have 30 guys who have more in them. Tolbert has hit better as a pro than the did in college, which is interesting. He's got a shot as a utility guy. I've discussed Oeltjen, about 75 minutes ago.

John Manuel: Right field is a smallish field in Minnesota, both now and in the projected new park, so RF it is, if not there, he should be able to handle 1B.

John Manuel: Really like Manship, he was a big deal coming out of HS but had TJ after pitching for Team USA, he's got a great curveball and is better than you're giving him credit for. He frankly just missed the top 10 and will be in the 11-15 range.

John Manuel: They like Papasan a lot, he can really hit, perhaps more than the guys you mentioned, but he's got to prove he can do it with wood, and he's got to prove he can hit.

John Manuel: Yes, I think there is a chance, though I don't see it happening for sure. I'd guess you'll get some repeat offenders—Matt Moses, Denard Span, maybe Doug Deeds if there's no room for him at Triple-A . . . then a rotation headed by Swarzak, probably also with Duensing, Simonistch, perhaps Kyle Aselton and Oswaldo Sosa. That's my guess, that would be an exciting rotation. All of those guys are prospects.

John Manuel: Power stuff, sits at 94 mph at times, pushed a bit to Double-A and wasn't ready this year, but he's physical, throws hard and on track to start at Fort Myers, could be in AA by season's end.

John Manuel: Better than people thought, can play 3b and can hit, maybe not a classic 3B profile, but definitely in contention for the top 30 and made waves with his debut. As I said, the opportunity is there at 3B in this system. First minor league to take advantage of the situation, to get off to a good start, hit well and defend well, will move quickly. Moses, Plouffe, Robbins, Winfree, Valencia, G. Olson all in that mix.

John Manuel: Um, one just won the MVP, and the other is the best catcher in the game. But getting to the farm system, yes, David Winfree and Matt Moses could be those guys, though it appears they don't control the strike zone enough and are more likely 6- or 7-hole hitters. Those are the two best options; that's probaby why (a) the Twins focused on impact bats in the draft, and (b) I ranked them in the top 10.

John Manuel: Damn Chris Kline for putting Journey on my iTunes . . .

John Manuel: Didn't he already do that? I don't think they had much choice, either, not after Durbin's injury. Garza got a little tired and the club did as a lot of him, but he responded pretty well, all things considered. I don't share your apprehension.

John Manuel: I'd go (1) Gordon, (2) Andrew Miller (just me personally), (3) Maybin, (4) Adam Miller, (5) Hochevar . . . Billy Butler a very, very close (6). I think I'm a bigger Andrew Miller fan than most at BA, I really liked the strides he made this year, and I think it's harder to find a dominant LHP than it is to find Maybin, as good as I think Maybin will be (and I think he'll be a star).

John Manuel: He will be in the 11-20 range (that's probably 10 I've named in this chat). I like him better the more I hear about him, good size, good stuff, fastball got better this year, if he sustains that improvement he's not far from being able to help in Minnesota. If you consider a workhorse No. 3 starter top-flight, then the answer is yes.

John Manuel: Can't say I'm bullish on Kubel, his body isn't holding up, and now all the value's in the bat and he can't stay in the lineup to get the ABs and learn to make the adjustments he needs to make in the big leagues. He's just not a guy I think the Twins can count on; doesn't mean he can't be good, but it's hard to consider him reliable when he has had issues with both knees the last two years.

John Manuel: Thank you Dean . . . Tough question. I've always been a Billingsley guy, but his command wasn't what I thought it would be. I'm still not ready to jump off that bandwagon; I'm ready to admit I undersold Verlander; always liked Cain. I'd have to say Garza ranks fifth there because Hamels showed me a lot this year. That's no knock on Garza but those others are pretty good.

John Manuel: That's possible, though I don't quite see him doing the high-average and 30-homers combo; that's asking a lot. I could see him being a .270 hitter with 30 homers and sticking in the OF, I think he'll stay in the OF.

John Manuel: (a) Slowey's fastball is better—he throws harder anad commands it better. That's a big difference. (b) Sonnantine's in a much deeper system, where his lack of power stuff really stands out; (c) I don't think Sonnanstine has 80 command, or even 70 command. I know he doesn't walk anybody, but I think he's more of a 60 command, a guy who is really fine and nibbles more than Slowey. I like Sonnanstine (check your 2003 New England Collegiate League top 10; I think that was the year); Slowey's better.

John Manuel: Got hurt, believe it was the shoulder, did too much too soon trying to get ready for the World Baseball Classic and got hurt.

John Manuel: Yes, despite fringy fastball velocity, he's got feel and command and will probably keep surprising people. He's having a great winter in Venezuela, too.

John Manuel: I'd guess Morneau could move to DH if Parmelee is ready.

John Manuel: Colvin is more well-rounded, if his bat comes, I'll take Colvin, but that's close. Hughes over Garza.

John Manuel: Separate Ways, that video is gold. Gold.

John Manuel: I do, lefty with ridiculous stuff. Again, nothing against Garza. I think I mis-read that last Q because it called Garza "garcia" which is kinda funny.

John Manuel: MLB season was still going when we started writing that, and we were certain Garza was going to exceed 50 IP, and then he didn't and we missed that, and that's wha' happen. We just made a mistake, and I ask your forgiveness, while appreciating that you brought it up and read the other story.

John Manuel: As the Clash says, "I'm not down," but I'm basically done, so thanks for coming out. Next week, we'll have plenty of Winter Meetings Fu for you here at baseballamerica.com and don't forget to check out the latest podcast.

Moderator: ThankYouGoodNight!