| Q: | Dean from Madison asks: Jim, love your chats. In the past, I remember you having some doubts about Bard. He also isn't listed on the Red Sox 2010 starting lineup. Yet he made it to #4, ahead of Lars Anderson. Has something changed? How did he earn such a high ranking? |
| A: | Jim Callis: I guess I do say that I'm not the biggest Daniel Bard fan in the world a lot. But Bard is very talented. He has a great arm. I'm not as high on him as others because I want to see consistent secondary pitches and command. Without them, he won't become a frontline starter. That said, the Red Sox have cleared out a lot of their depth via promotions and trades, and his upside is undeniable. He didn't make the 2010 lineup just because he ranked behind Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden, and I ran out of rotation spots for him. |
| Q: | JAYPERS from IL asks: Jed Lowrie - pretty surprised he was a no-show. What tools is he lacking, and would you call him the best 2B in the system? |
| A: | Jim Callis: Lowrie just didn't have a very good year. He had some injuries, but before he got hurt he wasn't getting untracked at the plate. He finally did in August. I like him some, but I don't think he's a shortstop and I don't think he's a sure thing to hit. I think Dustin Pedroia is the best second baseman in the system. |
| Q: | Jon from Swampscott, MA asks: Jim, thanks for answering my question. What is your take on Buchholz? Future Ace or Solid #2? |
| A: | Jim Callis: He has the raw stuff to be an ace. His fastball, curveball, slider and changeup are all plus pitches at times, sometimes plus-plus. Like most young pitchers, he needs more consistency and command. His upside is huge. |
| Q: | Whitey Bulger from The Green Monster (for now) asks: Hi Jim, I've been away a long time. I see the Sox have quite a farm system now. Since I can't buy the Handbook (can't give out my address) could you tell me who the next 5 or so prospects are on the list? Thanks. |
| A: | Jim Callis: Whitey, you can afford to buy a Handbook. I'll meet you halfway and give you Prospects 11-13: George Kottaras, Justin Masterson, Brandon Moss. I won't be specific on other non-Top 10 guys--BA has we wired up and will jolt me with voltage if I do anything that could harm Handbook sales. |
| Q: | Joe R. from Newport News, VA asks: The positions of Cox and Hansen suggest this question. How much difference is there between consecutive positions on the list? It doesn't look like there's a dime's worth of difference between them. |
| A: | Jim Callis: There's not necessarily a huge difference between consecutive spots on a list. I think if you asked most people who worked for the Red Sox, they'd give Hansen the benefit of the doubt. But while Hansen throws harder, Cox has a more electric and harder-to-hit fastball. Hansen is still looking for the dynamic slider he had in college, while Cox' slider is the best I've ever seen in person. |
| Q: | Mike Marinaro from Tampa, FL asks: Buchholz is a stud. His arm is as live as they come. Ellsbury may have a better chance of reaching his ceiling, but a rotation anchor is the hardest thing to come by in the majors. How close was Buchholz to ranking ahead of Ellsbury as the Sox top prospect? |
| A: | Jim Callis: Ah, Mike with his usual batch of fine questions, this being just one of them. It was very, very close, and I think you can make a case for either one of them. Ellsbury will be a solid-to-good player, I have no question, and he has a chance to be a very good player. Buchholz, as you mention, can be a very good to great player. I gave the benefit of the doubt to Ellsbury because he succeeded two levels higher (Buchholz was only in high Class A briefly), he has a longer track record and hitters are more likely to make it than pitchers. Just nitpicking, but I had to pick between the two. |
| Q: | Bob from Seattle, WA asks: Jim, what's the prognosis on Jon Lester? Is there any chance he pitches in 2007 for the Sox? |
| A: | Jim Callis: The Red Sox aren't saying much because of privacy concerns, but I did ask about Lester (who doesn't qualify for the Top 10 list any longer). They say things are going well, which was great to hear. Not sure about his chances of pitching next season. |
| Q: | Ian from Philly asks: Jim, what are your thoughts on some of the younger latin Sox Prospects such as Felix Doubront, Carlos Fernandez, and Luis Sumoza? |
| A: | Jim Callis: Doubront is the best of that group and ranks in the 11-20 range. He's a lefthander with an awful lot of polish, and the Red Sox think highly of him. |
| Q: | kris kaminska from naperville, IL asks: How is Mike Bowden progressing? Have they been working with him on any mechanical issues? |
| A: | Jim Callis: Bowden is progressing very well. His delivery is unorthodox, but it works for him, he repeats it well and the Red Sox don't believe it will lead to any health issues. So they're leaving his mechanics alone. |
| Q: | Iggith from Philadelphia asks: What are the early impressions of infielder Kris Negron? |
| A: | Jim Callis: Negron quickly has become an organization favorite since signing out of the draft. They love his passion and his athleticism, and he has a little more pop and plays better at shortstop than the Red Sox expected. They're excited about seeing what he does in Class A next year. |
| Q: | TempleUSox from NH asks: Brighter upside: Oscar Tejeda or Angel Beltre? |
| A: | Jim Callis: Really early to know for sure, but I ranked Beltre one spot ahead of Tejada on the Top 30. Beltre sounds like he offers a little more with the bat and is a little more polished. |
| Q: | Christian from Fort Lewis, WA asks: Thanks for your time with the chat, us fanatics really appreciate it. So what happened with Soto this year? Is he still considered a top talent. And what can you tell Sox fans about Tejeda and Beltre" And finally Matsuzaka, Boston bound, yes or no? Thanks for your help. |
| A: | Jim Callis: Luis Soto didn't make my Top 30. He has some power potential but hasn't developed at all as expected. Just deal with Beltre and Tejada. As for Daisuke Matsuzaka, who would rank No. 1 on this and most any list, no idea. That whole process is a little shady. What's to stop someone from saying that Matsuzaka wants to play for only one team, and if he doesn't go there, he won't sign and Seibu loses its eight-figure posting fee? Just seems like the process is rife for under-the-table shenanigans. There's my conspiracy theory of the day for you. |
| Q: | Chris from Detroit, MI asks: How accurate is it to write that raw high schoolers are "the type of player they've avoided during most of Theo Epstein's tenure"? The Red Sox have invested early picks in guys like Mickey Hall, Jon Egan, and Reid Engel before 2006. Are they not about average in terms of finding a balance between polished college hitters and younger guys out of high school? |
| A: | Jim Callis: That's accurate. They took Hall because he was supposed to be polished. Place is a high-risk, high-reward athlete with a very unconventional load to his swing and not the most polished approach. The Red Sox have not taken many of those guys at all, and certainly not in the first round. |
| Q: | JJ from Seattle, WA asks: Manuel ranked the AL East farms in this order: Rays, Yanks, Sox, O's, Jays... how do you see them? |
| A: | Jim Callis: Hmmmm. I'd go with the same order, though I probably think the Yankees and Red Sox are closer than John would. But with Hughes and Tabata, you have to put New York ahead right now. Most of Boston's top talent is in the lower levels, and we'll see how that plays out. |
| Q: | Connor Curtin from Belchertown asks: Who's starting in centerfield in 08? Ellsbury or Crisp? |
| A: | Jim Callis: Ellsbury. Maybe even by mid-2007. |
| Q: | Connor Curtin from Belchertown asks: Will Dustin Pedroia start this year? |
| A: | Jim Callis: I think so. Boston's top three middle infielders from last year all became free agents, though there's talk Alex Gonzalez is close to re-signing. I think you'll see Pedroia at second base. |
| Q: | Ross from Boston asks: Hello Jim, Thanks for taking my question. Do the Red Sox have any hope that Mike Rozier can be the pitcher that they thought he would become? |
| A: | Jim Callis: The Red Sox have some hope, but I don't really. Having him come to camp in the spring in less-than-optimal shape two years in a row is a very bad sign. And his stuff just isn't what the Sox projected it would be when he came out of high school. He's not on the Top 30. |
| Q: | Steve from SoCal asks: To say the least, I'm excited to have the Sox have a team in the Cal league, and it looks like they could have some serious talent in Lancaster. I know it's early, but are there any other's to keep an eye on that will probably start out in Lancaster next year? |
| A: | Jim Callis: The biggest bopper headed there is probably Aaron Bates. They could have an interesting pitching staff, with guys like Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, Daniel Bard, Kris Johnson and Justin Masterson trying to deal with a very hitter-friendly environment. |
| Q: | Dave from Chicago asks: Jim. Thanks, as always. Justin Masterson? Is he #11? And what are the major differences between him and Daniel Bard and Bryce Cox? Bard, I know, throws harder with nice action on the fastball, but doesn't have the secondary pitches Masterson currently displays. |
| A: | Jim Callis: As mentioned a little earlier, Masterson was No. 12. The biggest difference is that Bard and Cox have power stuff. Masterson has a deeper repertoire and very good command. A lot of people project him as a reliever, but the Sox think he may be a starter. |
| Q: | JAYPERS from IL asks: Hey Jim, who's on the agenda for Monday? I'm on tenterhooks waiting for Tampa Bay's list! Or are you gonna make us wait until Wednesday and stick Toronto in on Monday? |
| A: | Jim Callis: I believe you will get the Devil Rays on Monday. Their entire Top 30 is pretty insane. |
| Q: | David L. from Cambridge, MA asks: Dellin Betances ranked 3rd on the Yankees list. Where would he have been on this list? |
| A: | Jim Callis: Oh, I'm very much in love with Lars Anderson's potential, so I probably would have put Betances at No. 6 behind Anderson. |
| Q: | B. Lester from ATL, GA asks: How close was Chad Spann to making the top 10? |
| A: | Jim Callis: Spann wound up in the 21-30 range. He made a nice comeback last year, but I don't see a huge ceiling. Hits for some average now but doesn't control the strike zone like he used to as he tries to hit for power, and I think the power is average at best. He's also a below-average defender, and I don't think the whole package adds up to a big league regular, especially not on a contender. |
| Q: | Danny from Athens, Greece asks: Doing junior year abroad and a Sox Fan....where will "Knight School" guy Dustin Richardson wind up on the top 30 prospect list? Will he be a starter or reliever? |
| A: | Jim Callis: He just missed, was in the 31-35 range. I think he winds up as a reliever, as his consistency, command and secondary pitches have always been sporadic. Nice lefty arm, though. |
| Q: | Mike Marinaro from Tampa, FL asks: Jim: Last season, I was convinced that the trade for Josh Beckett was a steal for the Red Sox. After seeing Hanley Ramirez play for the Marlins last season, I'm convinced he is the best young shortstop in baseball, including Stephen Drew. Anibel Sanchez, the other player in the trade, became the ace of the Marlins' staff last season. In hindsight, this turned out to be a terrible trade for the Red Sox. Do you agree? |
| A: | Jim Callis: In 2006, it was a terrible trade for the Red Sox. At the time, though, I thought it was a good trade for both sides, and as such, I think it's hard to criticize Boston for it. Ramirez had leveled off, and I really though the Sox were selling high on him. They had to give up Sanchez, but I'd rather have given him up than Papelbon or Lester. I still think you have to get a young potential ace like Beckett when he goes on the market, because that so rarely happens, but the cost looks awfully high right now. |
| Q: | bob from Warwick, RI asks: Is catcher Luis Exposito the real deal? 19 and a NY-P All-star...where will he fall on your top 30? |
| A: | Jim Callis: He didn't quite make it. His defense is ahead of his offense, and I had catchers like George Kottaras, Jon Egan, Ty Weeden and Mark Wagner ahead of him. Wagner didn't make the Top 30 either. |
| Q: | Emil Faber from Faber College asks: Craig Hansen fell 4 places in the rankings since 2005. Is this more an indication of improved depth in the Sox system or a reduced projection based on last year’s results? What do you feel are his chances of becoming an elite closer? Thanks |
| A: | Jim Callis: More the latter. Getting rushed didn't help him, but Hansen's stuff just wasn't as electric last year as it was in college and he looked shell-shocked in the majors. His chances of becoming an elite closer depend entirely on whether he can regain his college stuff. |
| Q: | Red from Chicago asks: Michael Bowden seem to struggle occasionally this year. Expected for a first full year after HS. Was there any driveway work or landscaping done before any of these poor starts? :) And what's wrong with the Steelers? |
| A: | Jim Callis: Bowden had some of the normal ups and downs expected for a guy just out of high school, but all in all it was a very good year. I don't think he wore himself out paving any more driveways, however! Ah, my poor Steelers. Playing just well enough to lose. At least I still have thoughts of Super Bowl XL to keep me going. |
| Q: | Josh from Sacto asks: Thanks for taking my question; You have Bryce Cox as the closer in 2010, however he was a set up man in college that is normally a pretty tough transition to make, have you given up as Craig Hansen as a closer and finally do you think Daniel Bard could move to closer |
| A: | Jim Callis: Cox didn't have a normal college career path, though, so I wouldn't hold that against his chances of being a closer. He was more of a third baseman in junior college, then couldn't find the strike zone and was useless for most of a year at Rice. Electric fastball, unbelievable slider--believe me, he could have closed for the Owls at the end of 2006, or any other college team for that matter. Just addressed Hansen--haven't given up on him but it's hard for me to project him as a closer as of right now. Bard has the arm to believe a closer, and I could definitely see that if starting doesn't work out. |
| Q: | Dave from Connecticut asks: Does David Murphy project as more than a 4th outfielder? |
| A: | Jim Callis: Depends on whom you ask. Those who like him say he can play center field and that his impressive raw power eventually will translate. Those that don't say he's not really a center fielder and that his swing isn't conducive to homers. Based on his track record, I see him as more of a fourth outfield. Not out of the question that he platoons in Boston this year, or maybe sees some regular time in center if Coco Crisp falters again. |
| Q: | Dave from Connecticut asks: Every write-up on Jason Place compares him to Jeff Francoeur for his aggressiveness. But he showed an ability to draw walks in his debut, why the comparison? |
| A: | Jim Callis: You can't read much about plate discipline into someone's performance in the Gulf Coast League. Tony Blanco drew walks in the GCL. Place also draws those comparisons to Francoeur, for his athleticism, power and Southeast background. |
| Q: | Tony from San Jose asks: Does Jeff Natale have what it takes to be the Red Sox 2B of the future? |
| A: | Jim Callis: Offensively, maybe, but the defense is a real question mark. I think he's more destined for an offensive utility role as an OF1Bsporadic 2B type. |
| Q: | Randy(TEXS31) from Boston(SoxProspects) asks: Did you mean Cora or do you know something we don't? |
| A: | Jim Callis: I did mean Alex Cora on the re-signing. Sorry about that. |
| Q: | Whitey Bulger from green monster (still) asks: Jim, I'll buy the handbook if you tell me who "just missed" the top 30 but are still solid prospects. |
| A: | Jim Callis: That I can do, Whitey. The four guys I had the most angst about leaving off were: LHP Kason Gabbard, RHP David Pauley, C Mark Wagner and LHP Hunter Jones. ESPN Radio is reporting that Buster Olney is reporting that Boston won the Matsuzaka bidding for between $38 million and $45 million. If that's true, Phil Seibel or Jeff Natale is going to fall off the bottom of the list. |
| Q: | Mike from DC asks: Hey Jim, what can you tell us about Caleb Clay? Where do you see him playing and how does he project? Thanks. |
| A: | Jim Callis: Came out of nowhere this spring after being more of a center fielder. Very good arm, still kind of raw and will be handled patiently. He's kind of a really raw version of Daniel Bard, where he has the strong arm but needs to put everything else together. |
| Q: | Brian from Sturbridge, ma asks: Jim, Thanks for doing this again, we all appreciate it. Do you think Jason Mcleod has brought with him a new draft philosophy of power arms and projectable bats as long as the player shows some sense of polish? It seems that in the past with David Chadd they focused more on pitchability and finding an undervalued player type. Do you agree with this new philosophy and given their success over the last two drafts, how is it that they have been so good at it so soon? |
| A: | Jim Callis: Hmmm, interesting question. The funny thing is, with the Marlins, Chadd was more a part of what you call this new philosophy. I think it's more that Boston's needs have changed more than anything. When the Theo Epstein regime began, the farm system was thin and they focused on college players who could prop up the upper levels quickly. Now I think they're just trying to hoard as much talent as possible. They really did a mix this year, as first-rounder Jason Place and supplemental first-rounder Caleb Clay are raw upside guys. |
| Q: | Seth from Western NY asks: How do you feel about Ryan Kalish? Did he make the top 30? |
| A: | Jim Callis: He did, in the 11-20 range. He's a good athlete with a polished approach at the plate, a nifty combination. If it all works out, he could be similar to Jacoby Ellsbury. |
| Q: | JAYPERS from IL asks: Where would you rank Hottovy? I noticed he was one to "keep an eye on" in one of your recent issues. Will he remain a starter, or revert back to a reliever? |
| A: | Jim Callis: Hottovy did bounce back this year. I think he winds up being a middle reliever if he reaches the majors. He's another guy who just missed the Top 30. |
| Q: | Paul from San Francisco asks: How close was Edgar Martinez to the top 10? |
| A: | Jim Callis: He was toward the top of the 21-30 range. Still has a good fastball, but the velocity was down a little this year, the secondary pitches aren't there yet and his conditioning left a lot to be desired. There was comparisons made to Rich Garces, not intended as a compliment. |
| Q: | Red from Chicago asks: I always was a Mickey Hall fan. What has been his downfall? Bat speed? Pitch recognition? From what I've read (BA), he seems to work hard at his game. |
| A: | Jim Callis: He has changed his swing, but to no avail. He has some bat speed, but has continually struggled to make contact. Doesn't look like he's going to work out. |
| Q: | Mike Marinaro from Tampa, FL asks: Roethlisberger or Batch? |
| A: | Jim Callis: Roethlisberger. Keep the faith. |
| Q: | dave from leominster ma asks: whats the celling on 1B Mike jones ? |
| A: | Jim Callis: Jones has big-time power and doesn't offer much else. He's interesting, and he physically resembles a younger David Ortiz. He's a guy who I always ask about but will have to produce in full-season ball before I put him on the Top 30. |
| Q: | Adam from NYC asks: It has been reported today that the Red Sox have supposedly won the bid to negotiate with Daisuke Matsuzaka. Given this information is legit, Would Matsuzaka have ranked #1 on the list? Do you think he would have immediate impact in a strong AL east division? |
| A: | Jim Callis: Yes, he would be No. 1. And yes, I think he'll have an immediate impact. I'd take him over any pitcher on the free-agent market from a talent standpoint. |
| Q: | Matt from Oklahoma City asks: Thanks for the chat and all of your great info. Can't wait for the book. I read somewhere previously that some in the Red Sox organization weren't sure that Ty Weeden would be able to stay at catcher. What have you heard regarding his defense and what kind of ceiling do you see for him as a hitter? |
| A: | Jim Callis: What the Red Sox saw in instructional league was encouraging. They knew Weeden has some arm strength--he threw 90-92 mph off the mound in high school--and he continued to show that. He had more lower-half agility than they thought, and as he loses some football thickness may gain a little more. He has huge power, so his offensive ceiling is high. |
| Q: | JAYPERS from IL asks: Lars Anderson - best late round pick in the entire draft? Will he move fast throughout the system? |
| A: | Jim Callis: That's how I ranked him in our Draft Report Cards. Polished bat, easy power--he could move quick for a high schooler. |
Moderator: That's it for today. We'll be back on Monday to break down either the Blue Jays or Devil Rays . . . stay tuned!