Baltimore Orioles: Top 10 Prospects Chat

Baltimore Orioles: Chat




Baseball America's Top 10 Prospects lists are based on projections of a player's long-term worth after discussions with scouting and player-development personnel. All players who haven't exceeded the major league rookie standards of 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched (without regard to service time) are eligible. Ages are as of April 1, 2007.

Moderator: Will Lingo will chat with subscribers about the Orioles system at 3 p.m. ET.

 Q:  James from NIU asks:
For the last 2 years the orioles top prospect was Nick Markakis, who has better projection as a major leaguer, Markakis or Rowell?
 A: 

Will Lingo: Welcome to the first Top 10 Prospects chat of the year, everyone. In some ways it's the most fun time of the year, because if you check your favorite organization's top 10 and dream a little bit, you can imagine your team as the Detroit Tigers of 2007. I'm happy to kick things off this year with the Orioles, who have a solid top 10 in spite of graduating Nick Markakis, Adam Loewen, Hayden Penn and Chris Ray to the big leagues from last year's top 5.

Will Lingo: So let's start with a question comparing this year's top prospect with last year's. It's an interesting comparison because Markakis has clearly proven he can handle the big leagues, where Rowell hasn't even played a full season. And while Markakis has better all-around skills, I think I'd still give Rowell an edge because he has a chance to be a major offensive force in the middle of a lineup.

 Q:  Jaypers from IL asks:
What's been the story of Tripper Johnson? Is he still a contender or has his stock dropped too far?
 A: 

Will Lingo: It hardly seems right to have an Orioles prospect list (at least the expanded list of 30 we do for the Prospect Handbook) without Tripper, but he's departing now. The Orioles offered him a minor league contract after the season, but he declined and became a minor league free agent. Perhaps a change of scenery will help him get over the hump, and he'll be able to hit advanced pitching.

 Q:  Phillip from Overland Park, KS asks:
Do you see Radhames Liz, Brandon Erbe or Pedro Beato assuming a relief role at some point in time? Which one would make the best closer currently?
 A: 

Will Lingo: I think Liz would be the best candidate of those to go to the bullpen because he's a two-pitch guy with a dominant fastball. Erbe should be an ideal top of the rotation starter, while Beato already has the repertoire of pitches to use in a starting role.

 Q:  Tom T from Houston asks:
What do you think of Rowell's chances to stay at 3b? I know he's young and learning, but man is that alot of errors.
 A: 

Will Lingo: I think his athleticism would give him a chance to stay at third, but he's going to be so big and his bat (assuming it develops as expected) is going to be so important to the O's that I would just move him to first now and not worry about it. But the Orioles plan to keep him at third for now. I would say his chances to stay there all the way up to the big leagues are slim.

 Q:  Joe R. from Newport News, VA asks:
James Johnson was all the rage after 2005, but he was unimpressive in 2006. Is he still regarded as a potential starter? Will he start 2007 here in Norfolk, or will he go back to Bowie?
 A: 

Will Lingo: The Orioles still like him and he just missed the top 10. He didn't make progress with his command this year as the organization had hoped he would. He made one big league start this year and got knocked around pretty good, but team officials actually thought it helped him because it gave him an understanding of what it will take to get big league hitters out. He just needs to improve his command in the strike zone and learn how to throw an effective ball (ie, not a strike). He still has three good pitches and great durability. One person I talked to noted that he throws 89-92 mph on Opening Day and the last day of the season and every start in between.

 Q:  Greg from Baltimore asks:
What is the latest on the condition of B.Snyder? When he returns I would put him at 1BDH for the year, taking pressure off him physically and allowing him to focus on regaining his stroke. What do you think?
 A: 

Will Lingo: Several questions about Brandon Snyder, and we'll let Greg represent that group. The Orioles agree with your approach, Greg, and I think they'll put him in a low-stress defensive situation next season to try to get his bat going. They expect him to be ready to open the season at Delmarva.

Will Lingo: One other person asked if this means Snyder is going to be injury-prone. It's too early to know for sure, but I don't think so. The shoulder problem just made for a lost year, but there's no reason to think he can't bounce back. The injury probably does mean it's unlikely he'll go back to catching, which puts more pressure on his bat.

 Q:  Jay from Madison asks:
Beau Hale is a good story. Does he project to pitch in the bigs?
 A: 

Will Lingo: Beau Hale is one of the great stories in the minors. For those who don't know, Hale was an O's first-rounder in 2000 who has battled injuries ever since he signed and didn't play at all in 2003 or '04. He never stopped working, and Moe Drabowsky (who died this summer) became his mentor. He got back on the radar this season and showed he can be a big league pitcher. He has ironed out his delivery and stayed healthy all year, so I would expect him to open the 2007 season at Bowie and move up to Norfolk or the big leagues by the end of the year.

 Q:  Joey from Dundalk, MD asks:
What is the thinking of my beloved O's sending Bryan Bass to the fall league? He struck out like 160 times this year and was brutal at the plate for both A+ and AA????? Is he done or what?
 A: 

Will Lingo: A lot of Bryan Bass questions for some reason. I guess because he too was a first-rounder and we keep expecting him to do something. The only reason I can think for the Orioles to send him to the fall league was to hope he can get hot and generate some trade value. Otherwise, he is done.

 Q:  Adam from Hangout North asks:
It appears the Os have done an admirable job replacing Markakis, Loewen, Ray, Britton, Penn and Maine from last year's list if Ryan Adams can't crack the top 10. Who is the biggest sleeper in the system and where does the system rank overall? Somewhere around 10-15 again?
 A: 

Will Lingo: One sleeper to watch is Luis Lebron, who I believe is listed as Luis Gustavo in our Aberdeen Ironbirds stats. He's got a big arm and can touch 98, with a good slider, and if his changeup develops he could move really quickly. He has the stuff to start, but he prefers to relieve and his stuff tends to drop off quickly after he throws about 50 pitches, so the Orioles will keep him in the bullpen.

Will Lingo: As for where the system ranks, I would say middle of the pack is a safe bet. I haven't seen a lot of the other lists yet, but the Orioles have a pretty solid list. The lack of impact bats is a big weakness, but their pitching is better than a lot of clubs'. When and whether this will ever translate in the big leagues, I'm not sure.

 Q:  James from Portland asks:
Brian Burres showed a lot this year. Is he gonna make the big league club out of spring training?
 A: 

Will Lingo: Burres is an interesting guy who was cast off by the Giants and now has a spot on the Orioles' 40-man roster. He had a consistent year in the Triple-A Ottawa rotation, and he throws an 87-88 mph fastball (fine for a lefthander) that sinks and moves, with a solid slider and changeup. He'll go to big league spring training, but I would expect him to start the year back in Triple-A with a callup possible if he performs well again.

 Q:  Mrs. Spoone from Pasadena, MD asks:
Where does Chorye fit in the top 30? He might not have the ceiling of Delmarva teammate Erbe, but he has a two above average pitches and was dominant in the SAL at times - especially the first half of the season. Also does he project more a bullpen guy or could he stay in the rotation?
 A: 

Will Lingo: Thanks for dropping in, Mrs. Spoone. Your son Chorye is a local favorite for Orioles fans, but it's too early to tell how good he's going to be because he was just a raw arm when they signed him. I like him as a reliever because he has closer stuff with a closer mentality, and it looks like he's a guy whose arm can bounce back quickly. He did touch 96 this year, with a good curveball, and he was really just introduced to a changeup this year. The Orioles will continue to let him start to get innings and to see if he can handle the role.

 Q:  Jay from Madison asks:
BA listed Erbe as a top relief prospect in one of the leagues it covered and issues re Erbe's delivery have been raised before. Today's write-up suggest the O's have made some changes to his motion. Should we be more hopeful that Erbe can remain a starter?
 A: 

Will Lingo: After talking to various O's people, I think you can be more optimistic that he can continue to start. His mechanical issues have been resolved--he was a "jumper" at the plate who took a little hop before he planted his front foot--and he took the ball every fifth day this year with no physical problems, which is all the organization was really looking for. His demeanor and pitches would seem to make him an ideal starter if he's durable enough, and I think he will be.

 Q:  Cris from Orlando asks:
Did Florimon get any consideration?
 A: 

Will Lingo: A little bit, but he's more of a defense-first guy with significant questions about how much he'll hit. One scout I talked to described him as a guy who looks slick when you first see him play, but then he plays his way down your list. That didn't get me pumped up about Pedro.

 Q:  Tom T from Houston asks:
Two questions on Nolan Reimold - what is it about his swing that makes some scounts question whether his power will translate to the majors? His walk numbers would suggest that he can wait for his pitch. Second, is there a chance that he could move over to CF? For those of us that don't believe in Corey Patterson, the birds will need a new player there soon. Thanks!
 A: 

Will Lingo: First of all, hats off to all you O's fans for continuing to fill the chat queue with questions. I can't keep up! Just another sign of what a great fan base this team has. Perhaps someday your team will return to the playoffs...

Will Lingo: I think the major question about Reimold's bat is that some scouts just see him as a mistake hitter, and as he moves up he'll get fewer of those mistakes to hit. No one doubts that he can drive the ball a long way when he gets ahold of it. He also gets in trouble when he gets pull-happy. Also, I don't see him as a center fielder on an everyday basis. He can fill in there, but he's much better suited to a corner.

 Q:  Mike from Lancaster, PA asks:
Did Brett Bordes come close to making the Top-10? In your opinion, how quickly will he reach the bigs?
 A: 

Will Lingo: Bordes, the O's ninth-round pick out of Arizona State, is an interesting guy, though not quite interesting enough for the top 10. But we've seen how long lefty specialists can find work in the big leagues, and look at what Bordes did against lefthanders in Aberdeen: two hits allowed in 47 at-bats, and one of those was an infield hit. So he could move quickly if he keeps doing that.

 Q:  Clooch from Tempe asks:
What does your crystal ball say about Liz? Will he refine his command and harness his stuff to remain in the rotation or is he destined for bullpen duties?
 A: 

Will Lingo: If I had to guess, I'd say he ends up in the bullpen.

 Q:  Dean from Madison asks:
How much did 2006 hurt Brandon Snyder's prospect status? How much did the injuries drive Snyder's lost season? Is Snyder hanging in at #7 driven more by a lack of hitters in the Orioles system or Snyder's abilities (which were missing in 06)?
 A: 

Will Lingo: Interestingly, we were discussing just this topic at lunch today. (That's the kind of thing we discuss at lunch.) I think his ranking at No. 7 is an indication of both a lack of other hitters in the organization to move ahead of him, as well as his potential. Essentially, 2006 was a lost year, so the biggest questions are whether he's healthy and whether he'll hit enough to be a standout corner infielder (particularly if he moves to first) since it looks like catching is out.

 Q:  Keyser Sose from Shangrai LA asks:
Which pitcher in the minors do you feel has the highest ceiling? Erbe, Beato, Liz or Olson? I think Beato has the potential to be a Bartolo Colon type power pitcher.
 A: 

Will Lingo: Olson clearly has the lowest ceiling of that group, but he's also the safest bet among those four to get to the big leagues, and don't be shocked if he shows up there next year. You could make an argument for any of the others, but I'll go with Erbe.

Will Lingo: I'm trying to shift into lightning-round mode here, but some of the questions demand longer answers.

 Q:  Ian from NJ asks:
Can you address the cockiness issues discussed in regards to Rowell? Do you think this is simply an off-shoot of a certain Swagger typical to all NJ athletes?
 A: 

Will Lingo: To be honest, I didn't know there was a swagger typical to all New Jersey athletes, but I enjoyed that nonetheless. I think Rowell is just one of those guys who's borderline confident-cocky, and it will rub some people the wrong way. But I remember writing about another player with the "necessary arrogance" to be a star about 10 years ago: Chipper Jones. And that worked out OK.

 Q:  Drungo Hazewood from LP City asks:
Keiron Pope is extremely raw - he goes weeks or more where he seems to have absolutely no concept of the strike zone. How many successful major league hitters have started off looking as baffled as Pope did in '05 in Bluefield, or the last month at Aberdeen this season?
 A: 

Will Lingo: Thanks for that name, first of all. Second of all, not too many. Pope is a high-risk guy who honestly probably has less than an even-money chance to make it big. But guys with his power potential will always get a chance, and he at least does show the willingness and aptitude to learn. The Orioles essentially started from scratch with his swing and approach, so he really needs hundreds and hundreds of minor league at-bats before we can know for sure what he'll be.

 Q:  Jacob from Denmark asks:
Hi, I'm an Orioles fan living in Denmark right now and was wondering what we should be thinking of Brandon Snyder's atrocious year. I know he's young but it was bad. What is his projectability right now and what should we be hoping for him in a best case scenario? Thanks so much.
 A: 

Will Lingo: We've already covered this, but I wanted to give credit to anyone who's following us from the real big D. Let's just throw out Snyder's 2006 and start over in '07.

 Q:  Drungo Hazewood from LP City asks:
Will the switch from Ottawa to Norfolk mean the O's will treat AAA as more than a holding tank for 33-year-old journeymen?
 A: 

Will Lingo: Another question from Drungo! I don't think the move to Norfolk will change much about the Triple-A philosophy because that's something that goes beyond the Orioles. Most teams use Triple-A as a holding tank for veterans who can easily fill in at the big leagues when needed. You only occasionally get many prospects. And would you rather have had Nick Markakis in Baltimore or Triple-A?

Will Lingo: But great break for the Orioles to move from Ottawa to Norfolk. They now have what's probably the best layout of minor league affiliates for any organization. Team officials (and fans, for that matter) can get in the car and drive to see any affiliate on any given day next summer. That's pretty cool.

 Q:  Jake from Durham asks:
Will, with Rowell as the O's top prospect, where do you suppose he will find himself on the rundown of 100 prospects?
 A: 

Will Lingo: I'm going to guess he ends up at No. 26.

 Q:  Mark from Pylesville, MD. asks:
Has Fiorentino's performance boosted his stock within the organization? Many feel he is no better than a 4th outfielder. Your thoughts?
 A: 

Will Lingo: He came on strong at the end of the year, which did encourage everyone in the organization. Still, though, he's probably a fourth outfielder on a contending team, and there's nothing wrong with that. He can fill in at any spot and has a little bit of pop. That's a valuable player.

 Q:  Drungo Hazewood from LP City asks:
Do you think the Orioles' aggressive promotion schedule for many of their prospects helps or hinders the team in the long run? What other team would have had Jim Hoey in the majors after about 20 innings above the Sally League? Or Daniel Cabrera a few years ago. Or Jeff Fiorentino.
 A: 

Will Lingo: Wow, Drungo has really caught my fancy today. The Fiorentino thing a couple of years ago was a mistake, but for the most part I think the Orioles are no better or worse than the average organization with the way they promote guys. In a lost season, why not give Hoey a chance? He'll go into next year at 24, so you might as well find out what you have.

 Q:  Gregg from Los Angeles asks:
Where does Ryan Adams fit in the Orioles overall picture?
 A: 

Will Lingo: Too early to tell, but he's a middle infielder who looks like he'll hit, so who can't use that?

 Q:  John from Las Vegas asks:
Does Reimold have a shot at starting the season in Baltimore next season ala Markakis this year?
 A: 

Will Lingo: Considering he hit .255 in the Carolina League this season, I'm going to say no.

 Q:  Greg from LA asks:
Since we're in the AL East, is it too early to ask if Tyler Clippard will win they Cy Young this year?
 A: 

Will Lingo: John Manuel will see you on Wednesday.

 Q:  Karl of Delaware from Georgetown, Delaware asks:
Rommie Lewis was a great reliever for Delmarva in 2002. Then he dropped off the radar. Does his 2006 performance put him back in the top 30 Oriole prospect list?
 A: 

Will Lingo: I don't know if he'll squeeze back into the top 30, but he is at least back on the radar. I heard one person describe the old Lewis as a guy who "didn't want to be in baseball, and he wasn't wanted in baseball." Now he seems to have his act together, and he's throwing 89-92 mph with a good slider. So let's hope the best for him.

 Q:  Karl of Delaware from Georgetown, Delaware asks:
Arturo Rivas has one super tool - his arm. Does that and the balance of his makeup forecast some sort of major league role for him in the future?
 A: 

Will Lingo: Back to back for Karl.

Will Lingo: And the answer to your second question is no.

 Q:  John from St. Louis asks:
Do you think LHP David Haehnel will return to more of a closer role, after struggling this past season as a starter?
 A: 

Will Lingo: Closer is strong, but yes, he should go back to the bullpen.

 Q:  Joe R. from Newport News, VA asks:
Can Marino Salas make it as a middle reliever?
 A: 

Will Lingo: Sure. He throws 93-95 mph with a very good slider, but he needs to improve his command and maturity.

 Q:  Allen from MD asks:
Was Beato a steal, and did the Mets miss the boat by not going above slot? He sure looked good in limited action this past season.
 A: 

Will Lingo: I really am not sure why the Mets didn't go above the recommendation to sign him, but I'm sure the Orioles are happy it worked out that way.

 Q:  Jay from Madison asks:
The O's have a few 1b at lower levels who put up decent numbers -- Chris Vineyard in particular. Anything interesting there?
 A: 

Will Lingo: Vinyard is a draft and follow worth keeping an eye on. Good bat speed and power potential.

 Q:  Jay from Madison asks:
BA has been pretty critical of the O's system over the years -- ranking it very close to the bottom several years in a row and generally being pretty pessimistic. But now we look and it has Bedard, Loewen, Cabrara, Penn at the big league level (not to mention Maine with the mets) with a good supply of arms in the pen. While all of them have question marks, they also all have considerable upside and I think most teams would like to have such a supply of big league ready arms. Was BA's assessment too harsh or have some of these guys surprised.
 A: 

Will Lingo: They were ranked 12th coming into this year, 25th the year before, and 19th the year before that. Judging from what we've seen in the big leagues the last three years, I think all three assessments were about right.

 Q:  John from Las Vegas asks:
I know what his average was in the Carolina league, I also know what it is in the AFL (.290). Remember, he went 1 for 26 after missing about 2 weeks from injuries, and those hampered him for a while. He was hitting over .300 before the injuries and finished up strong when it was safe to say he was healed up.
 A: 

Will Lingo: Still, let's see him hit against Double-A pitchers before we put him in the big leagues. I won't say AFL numbers should be thrown out entirely, but take them with a grain of salt.

Will Lingo: All right, folks, I'm spent. Thanks for all the great questions and I'll see you in a few months when I do the Diamondbacks chat. Up next is John Manuel, talking Yankees on Wednesday. And don't forget John and me on the BA Podcast coming up on Friday.