2012 Appalachian League Top 20 Prospects With Scouting Reports
By Matt Eddy
September 26, 2012
See also:
2012 Appalachian League Top 20 Prospects Chat With Matt Eddy
See also:
Complete 2012 League Top 20 Prospects Schedule
FIVE YEARS AGO
|
| 1. Cole Rohrbough, lhp, Danville (Braves) |
| 2. Cody Johnson, of, Danville (Braves) |
| 3. David Bromberg, rhp, Elizabethton (Twins) |
| 4. *Neftali Feliz, rhp, Danville (Braves) |
| 5. *Jeff Locke, lhp, Danville (Braves) |
| 6. Nick Barnese, rhp, Princeton (Devil Rays) |
| 7. *Pete Kozma, ss, Johnson City (Cardinals) |
| 8. *Brandon Hicks, ss, Danville (Braves) |
| 9. Steve Evarts, lhp, Danville (Braves) |
| 10. Mike McCardell, rhp, Elizabethton (Twins) |
| 11. Michael Fisher, ss, Danville (Braves) |
| 12. Jose Martinez, of, Bristol (White Sox) |
| 13. Estarlin de los Santos, ss, Elizabethton (Twins) |
| 14. Loek Van Mil, rhp, Elizabethton (Twins) |
| 15. Deibinson Romero, 3b, Elizabethton (Twins) |
| 16. Ozzie Lewis, of, Elizabethton (Twins) |
| 17. Ebert Rosario, 3b, Greeneville (Astros) |
| 18. Brad Tippett, rhp, Elizabethton (Twins) |
| 19. Kraig Binick, of, Bluefield (Orioles) |
| 20. Kyle Greenwalt, rhp, Greeneville (Astros) |
| *Has played in major leagues |
BURLINGTON, N.C.—Predictably, the new mid-July signing date instituted for the 2012 draft
had a positive impact on the talent levels of the six domestic
short-season and Rookie leagues. More top draft picks signed in time to
suit up and play enough to qualify for our prospect lists.
Perhaps no league benefited more than the Appalachian League, where No. 2
overall draft pick
Byron Buxton, an outfielder with the Twins, ranked
as the Rookie-level circuit's top prospect and helped drive Elizabethton
to a league title. Three other first-rounders—Bristol center fielder
Courtney Hawkins (White Sox, No. 13 overall), Danville righthander
Luke
Sims (Braves, No. 21) and Kingsport shortstop
Gavin Cecchini (Mets, No.
12)—made this Top 20. So did Johnson City third baseman
Carson Kelly, a
Cardinals second-rounder who signed for $1.6 million.
Greeneville shortstop
Carlos Correa, whom the Astros drafted first
overall, batted .371/.450/.600 but his 41 plate appearances weren't
enough to qualify for our list. Other premium 2012 draft picks who
didn't meet playing-time requirements included Bluefield center fielder
D.J. Davis, taken 17th overall by the Blue Jays, and three supplemental
first-rounder: Elizabethton righthander
J.O. Berrios (Twins),
Greeneville righty
Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros) and Bristol first
baseman
Keon Barnum (White Sox).
Johnson City catcher
Steve Bean (Cardinals, sandwich round) and
Elizabethton righty
J.T. Chargois (Twins, second) qualified but didn't
earn enough support from managers and scouts to make the cut.
Baseball America's top-rated player in this year's
draft, Buxton went second overall after the Astros opted for Correa.
Buxton signed for $6 million, more than any other 2012 draftee, and
ranked as the No. 1 prospect in the Appy League as well as the
Rookie-level Gulf Coast League. He may need four years for his body and
skills to mature, but he has five-tool potential.
"He's a player where you have no concerns about him reaching his
ceiling," one scout said. "He projects to be at least a 60 hitter with
60 power (on the 20-80 scouting scale) because he makes consistent hard
contact. He has the speed for infield hits and the power for extra-base
hits."
Buxton's top-of-the-line speed was evident in his sub-3.9-second
times to first base during the playoffs, as were his confidence, bat
speed and consistent swing path at the plate. He shows a willingness to
bunt for hits and an aggressive approach on the bases. He covers a ton
of ground on defense and his plus-plus arm is considerably stronger than
that of most center fielders. |
| 77 |
16 |
22 |
6 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
8 |
15 |
7 |
0 |
.286 |
.368 |
.429 |
|
After signing for $2.475 million as the 13th overall
pick in June, Hawkins batted a cumulative .284/.324/.480 with eight
homers in 229 at-bats at three minor league stops. The White Sox
aggressively pushed the teenager to high Class A for the Carolina League
playoffs, and he belted two homers and drove in five runs in seven
games as Winston-Salem fell in the finals.
"His bat speed is probably the best I've seen at this level since
I've been doing this," Princeton manager Michael Johns said. "He takes a
monster hack now, but when he shortens it up he has a chance to hit for
more power because his bat head stays in the zone so long. I also liked
that he hit offspeed pitches against us."
Hawkins' work ethic and power potential are unquestioned, but if he
hopes to become a more complete hitter he must learn to better identify
pitch types and stop trying to pull everything. He has solid speed and
can handle center field now, but most observers expect he'll move to
right field in his early 20s, following the same migration made by the
likes of Giancarlo Stanton and Justin Upton before him. Hawkins' range
and arm strength make right field a good fit. |
| 147 |
25 |
40 |
8 |
1 |
3 |
16 |
7 |
37 |
8 |
2 |
.272 |
.314 |
.401 |
|
The Royals committed a franchise-record $7.5 million
to sign Starling, the fifth pick in the 2011 draft. Despite that outlay,
Kansas City pumped the brakes this season, holding him back in extended
spring training and then sending him to Burlington at age 20 rather
than to a more advanced league.
For Starling to deliver on his immense offensive potential, he'll
need to streamline his hitting mechanics and develop better pitch
recognition. Pitchers had success retiring Starling with good fastballs
and breaking pitches away because a hitch in his stroke didn't allow him
to consistently get to his plus power. His lower half gets out of sync
when his foot doesn't get down in time, and he struggles to stay inside
the ball or hit outside pitches with authority with his long, loopy
swing path.
An top-notch athlete who had a football scholarship to play
quarterback at Nebraska, Starling shows plus range in all directions in
center field and could handle the defensive demands of the position
right now in the big leagues. He averaged 2.5 putouts per game, tops
among Appy outfield regulars. He throws well and possesses the
above-average speed necessary to pose a threat on the bases. |
| 200 |
35 |
55 |
8 |
2 |
10 |
33 |
28 |
70 |
10 |
1 |
.275 |
.371 |
.485 |
|
Add Snell to the list of hard-throwing lefthanders
who have passed through Princeton in recent years. Past alumni include
Matt Moore (2008), Enny Romero (2010) and Felipe Rivero (2011), who like
Snell all had fastballs that sat in the low 90s when they ranked among
the Appy League's finest.
Snell attacks the strike zone with his heater, which tops out at 95
mph, and a trio of offspeed pitches he's sorting through. His low-80s
slider is probably his No. 2 offering, and it helped him limit Appy
lefties to two hits in 20 at-bats with 10 strikeouts. His changeup and
curveball are close to average and need further refinement.
Snell runs up high pitch counts because, like many young pitchers,
he tries to strike out as many batters as possible. The Rays shut down
him with general fatigue following his Aug. 18 start, so he fell just
short of qualifying for the ERA title. His ERA (2.09) and strikeout rate
(10.1 per nine innings) ranked second among Appy pitchers with at least
40 innings. |
| 5 |
1 |
2.09 |
11 |
11 |
0 |
47 |
34 |
12 |
11 |
4 |
17 |
53 |
.193 |
|
Cabrera signed with the Braves for $400,000 in July
2010, then spent a season in the Rookie-level Dominican Summer League
prior to joining Danville this year. He bypassed the Rookie-level Gulf
Coast League just like Randall Delgado did in 2008. Cabrera's older
brother Alberto made his big league debut with the Cubs in August.
Cabrera's radar-gun readings alone—he sits at 94 mph and peaks at 96
with his fastball—would cause evaluators to take note. He emerged as
the league's top righty prospect after factoring in his sturdy frame,
power arsenal and performance. Cabrera served as the ace of a playoff
team and led the Appy League with a .213 opponent average.
Cabrera's fastball sinks when he stays on top of it, and he
generates natural cutting action at other times. He already shows an
advanced feel for an above-average changeup, while his low-80s slider
occasionally flashes plus and breaks down and in to lefties. A wrist
wrap compromises his control of his breaking ball, and his development
of the pitch could mean the difference between starting and relieving
down the line. |
| 2 |
2 |
2.97 |
12 |
12 |
0 |
58 |
45 |
23 |
19 |
2 |
23 |
48 |
.206 |
|
In what seemingly used to be an annual rite, the
Braves selected a Georgia high school talent with their top pick in
June, drafting Sims 21st overall and signing him for $1.65 million.
Atlanta hadn't taken a Peach State product in the first round since
Jason Heyward in 2007.
A two-way standout in high school, Sims already throws a 91-92 mph
fastball that tops out at 95 and a plus 77-78 mph curveball. His
changeup gives him a chance for a third-above average pitch. He
struggled with walks and to command his changeup because of what one
manager deemed a funky arm action, but most observers believe Sims has
the athleticism and desire to work through his mechanical issues and
stay in the rotation. |
| 2 |
4 |
4.33 |
8 |
8 |
0 |
27 |
26 |
14 |
13 |
2 |
12 |
29 |
.243 |
|
The son of Polish and American ballet dancers, Kepler
was born and raised in Berlin and signed with the Twins for $800,000,
the largest bonus ever for an amateur European position player. He
batted .267/.352/.372 at Elizabethton in 2011, but a combination of more
contact and more power led to a breakout with the league-champion Twins
this season. Kepler led the league in slugging (.539) and total bases
(125) while ranking second in extra-base hits (31) and RBIs (49).
Kepler has grown into his 6-foot-4 frame and has slowed to an
average runner, but the Twins will accept that tradeoff because he's
become more aggressive as he's grown accustomed to pro ball. Batting
third for Elizabethton all season, he showed a mature hitting approach
by using the whole field, staying back on breaking balls and rarely
going outside his strike zone. One manager thought that he lost power by
taking his hand off the bat during his follow-through, but with a more
consistent swing he has at least average power potential.
Kepler has played all three outfield spots as well as first base,
and most evaluators see him as a left fielder in the long term, putting
more focus on his offensive production. He has fringy arm strength. |
| 232 |
40 |
69 |
16 |
5 |
10 |
49 |
27 |
33 |
7 |
0 |
.297 |
.387 |
.539 |
|
The nephew of former big league reliever Antonio
Osuna, Roberto has toed the rubber in three different countries in the
past two seasons. He made 13 appearances in the Mexican League before
the Blue Jays purchased his rights from Mexico City for $1.5 million in
August 2011. Toronto then aggressively pushed Osuna to Bluefield in June
and then short-season Vancouver in July, where he struck out 13 over
five innings in his Canadians debut.
Osuna already weights in at 230 pounds at age 17, about 70 pounds
heftier than his uncle at a similar age. While he may not have
projection remaining, he has advanced control and feel for pitching. He
sits 91-92 mph and reaches 95 with his fastball, and his plus changeup
is difficult to hit because he locates it down in the zone with good arm
speed.
"He can really pitch," Johns said. "Here's a 17-year-old throwing
3-2 changeups with the bases loaded. He's throwing his fastball to both
sides too, up, down. He just never got rattled."
Developing Osuna's slurvy breaking ball will be a point of emphasis
going forward. Even with a fringy breaking pitch, his pitchability could
make him a mid-rotation starter. |
| 1 |
0 |
1.50 |
7 |
4 |
0 |
24 |
18 |
5 |
4 |
1 |
6 |
24 |
.200 |
|
DeLeon has arm strength comparable to the league's
other top international pitchers, Cabrera and Osuna. He has the most pro
experience of the trio—he signed as a 17-year-old in 2009—but also the
highest walk rate of the group. DeLeon missed two weeks in July with
shoulder soreness but showed no ill effects in a strong playoff start.
DeLeon touches 98 mph and regularly works at 92-95 with his
fastball. He also throws a low-80s slider with plus velocity and lateral
tilt. He hasn't refined his command or his feel for a changeup, which
could mean that his future is as a late-inning reliever rather than as a
starter. |
| 3 |
0 |
3.25 |
10 |
10 |
0 |
44 |
39 |
19 |
16 |
1 |
20 |
42 |
.227 |
|
Nessy signed for $750,000 in 2009 and has advanced
deliberately through the lower levels of the Blue Jays system. Like many
of Bluefield's top prospect, he earned a promotion for the short-season
Northwest League's stretch run and playoffs.
International scouts wondered if Nessy could stay behind the plate
because of his jumbo frame, but he answered those questions for the time
being by establishing himself as the Appy League's finest defensive
catcher. He threw out 33 percent of basestealers thanks to plus arm
strength and accuracy. He sometimes wants to be too quick and comes out
of his throwing mechanics, but managers lauded his blocking skills, arm
strength, effort level and game-calling ability. He's bilingual and
communicates well with his pitchers.
Nessy's greatest attributes on offense are his bat speed and
above-average power. He takes a wild hack and tries to pull every pitch
he offers at, but if he can learn a modicum of restraint he ought to
have more than enough bat to profile as a starting catcher. |
| 160 |
26 |
41 |
8 |
0 |
8 |
23 |
13 |
47 |
0 |
0 |
.256 |
.320 |
.456 |
|
The Rays selected Martin 36th overall in last year's
draft, six picks after Jake Hager, a fellow high school shortstop. Hager
moved on to low Class A Bowling Green this year, while Martin assumed
Hager's former position as shortstop for Princeton, catching the eye of
Appy League managers with his consistent defensive play and surprising
power.
Martin led all league shortstops in assists (194), putouts (78) and
double plays (37), proving his durability by playing in 63 of the Rays'
68 games. He understands the ins and outs of the position, converts all
the balls he gets to into outs and makes strong, accurate throws to
first base. He benefits from a quick exchange and arm action, leaving no
doubt he can handle the shortstop position despite just average speed.
Martin was one of eight Appy leaguers—and the lone middle
infielder—to reach double digits in homers (10), the result of solid
power and the bat speed to catch up with any fastball. However, he hit
just .209 and stuck out in 26 percent of his plate appearances because
he struggles to identify and hit breaking balls. He hit a miserable
.194/.249/.358 in 201 at-bats versus righthanders and probably won't hit
for much of an average going forward without making more contact. |
| 254 |
46 |
53 |
11 |
4 |
10 |
32 |
21 |
73 |
8 |
1 |
.209 |
.272 |
.402 |
|
Cecchini's older brother Garin signed with the Red
Sox for $1.31 million in the fourth round of the 2010 draft, while Gavin
went 12th overall this June and signed for $2.3 million. An errant
pitch broke a bone in the tip of his right middle finger on Aug. 1,
knocking him out of action for nearly two weeks and forcing him to DH
for the balance of the summer.
He didn't play shortstop for Kingsport for the final month of the
season, so managers didn't get a good look at Cecchini on defense. He
possesses the footwork, hands and range to be an average shortstop, but
he'll need to further develop his average though accurate arm to seal
the deal. He has average speed and is a plus baserunner.
Cecchini probably won't develop more than gap power, but if he can
stay in the middle infield it won't matter because he has a chance to
hit for average. His overall batting line took a hit when he played
through his hand injury and hit .247/.301/.286 during August. He can get
too aggressive and he has a lot of moving parts to his swing, but he
makes hard line-drive contact when he barrels the ball. |
| 191 |
21 |
47 |
9 |
2 |
1 |
22 |
18 |
43 |
5 |
4 |
.246 |
.311 |
.330 |
|
The Cardinals made Kelly the first Oregon high school
player taken in the first three rounds of the draft since Steve Bechler
in 1998. He signed for $1.6 million, the highest bonus amount of the
second round, and reported to Johnson City, where he smacked nine home
runs despite hitting just .221.
Part of Kelly's struggles to hit for average can be attributed to
his youth, as he turned 18 in mid-July. Johnson City manager Oliver
Marmol said that Kelly, given his amateur background, struggled with the
speed of the game initially. "He still could hit a good fastball,"
Marmol said, "but this was his first time seeing spin and good
changeups, so it took him a while to get used to seeing them and laying
off."
Kelly showcases a solid line-drive stroke and enough loft to drive
the ball for long hits. He uses a quiet hitting setup without a lot of
movement, though some don't like that he moves his hands up and down as a
timing mechanism to start his swing. Kelly doesn't run well and won't
be more than playable at the hot corner if he doesn't enhance his
lateral quickness, but he compensates to a degree with good hands and
above-average arm strength. |
| 213 |
24 |
48 |
10 |
0 |
9 |
25 |
10 |
33 |
0 |
0 |
.225 |
.263 |
.399 |
|
The third of three Blue Jays prospects to make this
list, Norris signed for $2 million at the 2011 deadline and struggled in
his pro debut this summer. His 7.97 ERA was somewhat misleading,
because he had the worst baserunner strand rate (45 percent) in the
league. He had similar issues in two starts at short-season Vancouver.
Though Norris' arm strength—his fastball sits in the low 90s and
touches 96 mph—and projectability are evident, he often fails to stay in
sync with his mechanics. He struggles to strike a balance point in his
delivery and his arm drags, leaving him unable to get over his front
side and get extension. He imparts quality spin on a potentially plus
curveball and he also has feel for a changeup, but he'll need a
repeatable delivery to get the most out of them. |
| 2 |
3 |
7.97 |
11 |
10 |
0 |
35 |
44 |
35 |
31 |
4 |
13 |
38 |
.295 |
|
Toles probably would have went higher than the third
round of the 2012 draft had he not been dogged by whispers of bad
makeup. He latched on with Chipola (Fla.) JC this year after being
dismissed from Tennessee following the 2011 season. Toles' father Alvin
played linebacker for the Volunteers, went in the first round of the
1985 NFL draft and spent four seasons with the New Orleans Saints
"Short, strong and fast" describes not only Toles' swing but also
his stature. He takes a big cut with premium bat speed and has plus raw
power—and more usable power than most players his size. His quick-twitch
athleticism ought to allow him to hit for average. He batted .359
through Aug. 6 before going into a 14-for-82 (.171) spiral to close the
season.
Toles' non-hitting tools grade well. He's at least a 60 runner on
the 20-80 scouting scale with above-average range and arm strength. He
stole just 13 bases in 18 tries in the Appy League, but he has the speed
and baserunning acumen to build on that total. |
| 199 |
31 |
56 |
13 |
3 |
7 |
33 |
12 |
36 |
14 |
5 |
.281 |
.327 |
.482 |
|
The Royals forked over $600,000 last year to sign
Leonard, and he made that decision look wise by tying for the Appy
League lead with 14 homers and finishing third with 46 RBIs.
Leonard offers profile power at third base, a quick bat and the
controlled hitting approach and pitch recognition to continue hitting
homers as he moves up. He can turn on inside fastballs and drive them
for distance—he pulled 10 of his 14 homers to the left of center
field—but he also hits breaking balls and seldom chases outside his
zone. A comfortably below-average runner, Leonard won't leg out many
infield hits, but he can raise his average and cut down on strikeouts if
he learns to use the whole field instead of looking to pull everything.
A burly 6-foot-4 with a thick lower half, Leonard played shortstop
in high school before shifting to the hot corner with Burlington and
leading Appy third basemen in fielding average (.929) and assists per
game (2.6). His hands and strong arm will play at third, though he'll
need to improve his range to his left as well as his body control on
bunt attempts. |
| 235 |
37 |
59 |
9 |
3 |
14 |
46 |
30 |
55 |
6 |
2 |
.251 |
.340 |
.494 |
|
Houser spent half of his 2011 pro debut at
Greeneville, posting a 4.56 ERA and 19-15 K-BB ratio in 26 innings. He
fared much better in his repeat of the Appy League this year.
Scouts like Houser's repertoire, 6-foot-4 frame and ability to
deliver the ball on a downhill plane. He pitches at 90-93 mph and
touches 95, inducing plenty of groundballs with the sinking action on
his two-seam fastball. He appears to cut the ball at times.
Houser owns a big-breaking, mid-70s curveball that he might throw
too much at this stage. He tends to slow his arm when throwing a fringy
changeup. Streamlining his delivery and fastball command will top his
to-do list in 2013. |
| 3 |
4 |
4.19 |
11 |
11 |
0 |
58 |
53 |
28 |
27 |
1 |
23 |
54 |
.233 |
|
The Braves signed both Peraza and Mauricio Cabrera on
July 2, 2010, and they could team up again at low Class A Rome next
season after playing well in the Appy League. A rangy athlete, Peraza
began the summer by hitting .318/.348/.424 in 85 Gulf Coast League
at-bats prior to joining Danville on July 17.
More of a spray hitter now, Peraza shows the quick bat to hit for
gap power and occasional homers as his body matures. A plus runner, he
stole 25 bases in 30 tries between his two stops. He's an excellent
bunter and baserunner.
Peraza played in just 17 games at shortstop for Danville, but in
that time he outdistanced the field in rate measures such as assists
(3.7), double plays (0.8) and total chances (5.5) per game. While he
offers above-average range, his tendency to push throws concerned at
least one league manager. |
| 121 |
21 |
34 |
4 |
0 |
1 |
18 |
9 |
18 |
15 |
2 |
.281 |
.351 |
.339 |
|
Ogando began playing baseball in 2008 and signed with
the Mariners a year later as a projectable 16-year-old righthander.
Prior to that, basketball had been his game of choice, which is
understandable given his 6-foot-5 frame.
Given his inexperience, Ogando is more thrower than pitcher at this
stage, a fault Appy League observers were willing to overlook given that
his fastball sits at 94-95 mph and peaks at 97. The velocity and life
on his fastball confound righthanders, who batted just .217 with one
homer in 115 at-bats against him. Lefties get a better look at the ball
given his long arm stroke, lack of a consistent second pitch and whippy
arm action.
When Ogando works ahead of batters, his hard curveball and slider
can function as chase pitches, but he doesn't throw his breaking stuff
for strikes with any consistency or trust his changeup. He may not need
that changeup if he winds up in the bullpen, as most Appy observers
expected he would. He could develop into a set-up man. |
| 2 |
3 |
4.17 |
12 |
12 |
0 |
50 |
49 |
27 |
23 |
2 |
23 |
39 |
.247 |
|
Gallagher pulled down $750,000 as a Royals
second-rounder last year, but his career has yet to gather steam because
he signed late and dealt with myriad injuries this season. He hit just
.157 in 28 games between two Rookie leagues in 2011, then caught just 30
games for Burlington this season between visits to the trainer's table.
Early in the season, Gallagher injured his receiving hand on a
catcher's-interference play and later missed nearly two weeks after
jamming his shoulder while running the bases.
Gallagher weathered injuries to gun down 26 percent of basestealers.
Area scouts worried that he might outgrow catcher, but he impressed
Appy League observers by receiving the ball well with soft hands,
calling a great game and making strong, accurate throws to second base.
A simple swing and knack for barreling the ball suggest Gallagher
will hit for average as he matures, and a high contact rate this season
argues strongly for that case. Though he doesn't have premium bat speed,
he's already quite physical and can drive the ball to his pull side.
He'll never be a factor on the bases because of well below-average
speed, but his other tools give him a chance to profile as a starting
catcher. |
| 127 |
13 |
35 |
10 |
0 |
3 |
15 |
10 |
16 |
1 |
3 |
.276 |
.331 |
.425 |
|