Southern League Top 20 Prospects

By Alan Matthews
October 9, 2007

FIVE YEARS AGO

1. *Jake Peavey, rhp, Mobile (Padres)

2. *Aaron Cook, rhp, Carolina (Rockies)

3. *Frank Beltran, rhp, West Tenn (Cubs)

4. *Jason Young, rhp, Carolina (Rockies)

5. *Ricardo Rodriguez, rhp, Jacksonville (Dodgers)

6. *Miguel Olivio, c, Birmingham (White Sox)

7. *Choo Freeman, of, Carolina (Rockies)

8. *Vinny Chulk, rhp, Tennessee (Blue Jays)

9. *Ben Henrickson, rhp, Huntsville (Brewers)

10. *Dennis Tankersley, rhp, Mobile (Padres)

*Has played in major leagues

The Double-A Southern League offered a wide variety of talent in 2007. Arguably the three best position prospects who opened the season in the minors—outfielders Justin Upton (Mobile) and Jay Bruce (Chattanooga), and third baseman Evan Longoria (Montgomery)—spent part of the summer in the SL. Bruce didn't accumulate enough plate appearances for this list, but Upton and Longoria ranked 1-2.

The pitching was deeper than the hitting, even with talents such as lefthanders Clayton Kershaw (Jacksonville), Jake McGee (Montgomery) and Scott Elbert (Jacksonville) and righties Chris Volstad (Carolina) and Josh Roenicke (Chattanooga) failing to qualify. Seven of the minors' top 14 pitchers in strikeouts worked in the SL at one point this year, proof that the everyday players who performed well did so against legitimate competition. Birmingham lefty Gio Gonzalez topped both the league and the minors with 185 whiffs in 150 innings.

Montgomery became the first SL team in 30 years to repeat as champions, no surprise considering the talent on its roster. Longoria had departed for Triple-A by that point, but righthander Wade Davis and shortstop Reid Brignac also ranked among the league's 10 best prospects and McGee would have joined them had he pitched enough innings. Biscuits righty Chris Mason couldn't quite crack the Top 20, but he was named SL pitcher of the year after leading the league in wins (15) and ERA (2.57).

1.	Justin Upton, of, Mobile BayBears (Diamondbacks)
B-T: R-R Ht.: 6-3 Wt.: 205 Age: 20 Drafted: Diamondbacks '05 (1)
After just 32 games in high Class A, Upton was called up to Mobile and spent 10 weeks reinforcing what has been written about him since he was 15: He's one of the most physically gifted players in the game. He took over as Arizona's regular right fielder three weeks shy of his 20th birthday and held his own as the Diamondbacks won the National League West. Upton's package of tools is unparalleled, prompting one scout to award him future grades of 70 (on the 20-80 scale) in all five categories. His lightning-quick bat allows him to let balls travel deep, and he maintains his balance through his swing. He drives balls out to all parts of the park, and while he has a tendency to chase balls out of the strike zone, he made improvements with his plate discipline this year. "When I saw him take a slider on the outside part of the plate and rake it into right field and then turn a plus fastball around and hammer it over the center-field wall, you know you're looking at a pretty special hitter," Montgomery manager Billy Gardner said. Upton's speed allows him to compensate for his lack of experience in the outfield. He has feel for all phases of the game and should shore up his routes in the outfield and his decisions on the basepaths with more experience. He has the speed for center field and the arm for right.
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG 259 48 80 17 4 13 53 37 51 10 7 .309 .399 .556
2.	Evan Longoria, 3b, Montgomery Biscuits (Devil Rays)
B-T: R-R Ht.: 6-2 Wt.: 190 Age: 21 Drafted: Devil Rays '06 (1)
Longoria's raw power and his extraordinary feel for hitting rank right with Upton's. The league MVP, he ranked among the league leaders in average (.307), homers (21), on-base percentage (.403) and slugging (.528) when he left for Triple-A in July. Longoria has a fluid game with an easy, loose swing that generates exceptional bat speed. His power comes from leverage created by his quick hands and strong wrists. He's aggressive in all counts and will chase breaking balls away, but he also displayed patience as he was often pitched around this season. "He's hitting balls that were traveling to parts of parks you just don't see guys hit them," an American League scout said. "The leverage and finish he generates in his swing is something you just can't teach." A solid-average defender with a slightly above-average arm, Longoria displays body control on slow rollers and he has soft hands. He's a below-average runner.
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG 381 78 117 21 0 21 76 51 81 4 0 .307 .403 .528
3.	Wade Davis, rhp, Montgomery Biscuits (Devil Rays)
B-T: R-R Ht.: 6-5 Wt.: 220 Age: 21 Drafted: Devil Rays '04 (3)
Davis dominated high Class A during the first half of the season and maintained that success when he was called up to Montgomery in July. He allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight out of his first nine Double-A starts before fading at the end. A pure power pitcher, Davis lacks only feel for his craft and a polished third pitch. His fastball ranges from 93-97 mph, though he dropped to 86-92 later in the year. He gets a good plane on his fastball, which he can locate to both sides of the plate. He's at his best when he's spotting it down in the zone, but he has a tendency to work deep in counts. Davis' breaking ball is a hard curve with occasional two-plane break at 79 mph. He also throws a cutter and changeup, though neither is a quality third offering at this stage. "You never want to say a guy is a true No. 1 starter, but he might be better than a No. 2," a second AL scout said. "He has durability and a good delivery, he has poise and he has really good stuff."
G GS W L SV ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG 14 14 7 3 0 3.15 80 74 37 28 3 30 81 .249
4.	Johnny Cueto, rhp, Chattanooga Lookouts (Reds)
B-T: R-R Ht.: 5-11 Wt.: 174 Age: 21 Signed:Reds '04
Two years removed from Rookie ball, Cueto climbed from high Class A to Triple-A this season, dealing all the way. The 21-year-old compiled a jaw-dropping 170-34 strikeout-walk ratio in 161 innings, including a career-high 13-whiff performance against Carolina in his second SL start. "You see a lot of Latin kids with real good arms, and he's got a good arm," a third AL scout said. "But the thing with him is he had plus control and average command." Cueto pounds the zone with a 91-95 mph fastball and an 82-89 mph slider. His arm action is quick and relatively clean. He powers through his slider, giving it cutting action without depth, but its tight spin provides deception even when it lacks a defined shape. He keeps lefties at bay by using his changeup and pitching inside.
G GS W L SV ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG 10 10 6 3 0 3.10 61 52 24 21 6 11 77 .231
5.	Brandon Jones, of, Mississippi Braves
B-T: L-R Ht.: 6-2 Wt.: 195 Age: 23 Drafted: Braves '03 (24)
Injuries cut short Jones' last two seasons, but he moved closer to becoming a complete hitter in 2007. The three-sport star from a tiny town in the Florida panhandle climbed to Triple-A shortly after the all-star break and helped carry Richmond to the International League championship. Jones has a smooth lefthanded swing, keeping his barrel in the zone long enough to hit pitches deep over the plate as well as those out front. He hit 19 homers between Double-A and Triple-A, and his knack for making hard contact and his athleticism could produce above-average power numbers down the road. He has a bad habit of trying to lift balls, rather than letting his bat speed and hands do the work. His pitch recognition, two-strike approach and plate discipline are also assets. His speed, defense and arm are solid-average to plus tools "I'd have to imagine this was a hands-off prospect when they were making trades this year," the first AL scout said. "His approach was so easy and so mature at the plate. You're expecting a raw athlete who's rigid and jumping out on his front foot, but he's at home in the batter's box."
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG 365 58 107 21 6 15 74 44 84 12 7 .293 .368 .507
6.	Reid Brignac, ss, Montgomery Biscuits (Devil Rays)
B-T: L-R Ht.: 6-3 Wt.: 175 Age: 21 Drafted: Devil Rays '04 (2)
While Upton, Longoria and Jones have better tools, Brignac tied for the SL lead with 52 extra-base hits and quietly put together another strong season. He overcame a two-month slump that saw him bat just .218 in May and June, highlighting his inconsistency. Brignac's pure bat speed is solid-average, which means he must hone his approach in order to maximize his hitting ability. He got pull-happy and tried to lift the ball too frequently this summer, and he occasionally lacks patience. He has solid-average power that can develop into a plus once he learns to stay back and trust his hands. He knows how to use the whole field and hit for average, as long as he avoids trying to hit home runs and lets his natural feel for hitting take over. Most scouts believe Brignac can remain at shortstop, but the jury is still out. A fringe-average runner, he has good body control, adequate range and an average, reliable arm. His .963 fielding percentage was a career best.
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG 527 91 137 30 5 17 81 55 94 15 5 .260 .328 .433
7.	Tyler Colvin, of, Tennessee Smokies (Cubs)
B-T: L-L Ht.: 6-3 Wt.: 190 Age: 21 Drafted: Cubs '06 (1)
The top prospect in the short-season Northwest League last year, Colvin split his first full minor league season between high Class A and Double-A. His game is comparable to Steve Finley's with less speed, though scouts believe Colvin can handle center field. He has a smooth swing with loose hands and wrists, and he squares balls on the barrel of his bat. He projects to hit as many as 25 home runs and 35 doubles a year. He walked just 15 times in 492 at-bats between the two levels, and he could improve his patience, two-strike approach and pitch recognition. Colvin is an instinctive player whose speed and defense play up because he gets good jumps on the bases and in the outfield. He has an average, accurate arm.
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG 247 34 72 11 2 9 31 5 54 7 1 .291 .313 .462
8.	Manny Parra, lhp, Huntsville Stars (Brewers)
B-T: L-L Ht.: 6-3 Wt.: 200 Age: 24 Drafted: Brewers '01 (26)
Just as Parra was ready to run for mayor in Huntsville--where he had pitched parts of the 2004, '05 and '06 seasons--everything clicked. He cruised through 13 starts, tossed a perfect game in his first Triple-A outing and assumed a key role in Milwaukee as the Brewers contended for a division title. He has above-average control of a versatile assortment of pitches, and his stuff was as crisp as it had been since his 2005 shoulder surgery. Parra's fastball sat at 93 mph and touched 95, and his 79-80 mph curveball with 1-to-7 tilt overmatched minor league hitters. Parra's two-seamer, changeup and splitter are effective offerings he uses selectively. Huntsville pitching coach Rich Sauveur, who had worked with Parra since 2003, praised him for his poise, as well as his improved execution of each pitch. "The pitches themselves are what separate him from everybody else," Sauveur said. "What he did the best though was mentally. He started beating everybody down this year. He just went out there on the mound and he put everything together."
G GS W L SV ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG 13 13 7 3 0 2.68 81 70 28 24 2 26 81 .234
9.	Gio Gonzalez, lhp, Birmingham Barons (White Sox)
B-T: R-L Ht.: 5-11 Wt.: 185 Age: 21 Drafted: White Sox '04 (1S)
More than one scout referred to Gonzalez as the league's pitcher closest to the majors after Parra graduated to Milwaukee. For the third straight summer, he pitched at least 130 innings, and his 185 strikeouts were a career high and tops in the minors. Gonzalez has a polished three-pitch repertoire that's highlighted by one of the minors' best breaking balls. He has great feel for and confidence in his two-plane curveball, which changes hitters' eye level and grades as a plus-plus pitch. He adds and subtracts from his fastball, which ranges from 86-92 mph and has occasional run and sink. He also has feel for a changeup, which provides him with a legitimate third weapon. He has solid-average command, though he has a tendency to fall off the mound to the third-base side, causing him to miss his spots. "I can remember one outing where he had our hitters talking to themselves," Sauveur said. "He's got big league stuff."
G GS W L SV ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG 27 27 9 7 0 3.18 150 116 57 53 100 57 185 .216
10.	Carlos Gonzalez, of, Mobile BayBears (Diamondbacks)
B-T: L-L Ht.: 6-1 Wt.: 180 Age: 21 Signed: Diamondbacks '02
"You could be standing at the concession stand and know when Upton or Gonzalez were hitting," a scout said, testifying to the outfielder who flanked Upton in Double-A. Gonzalez tied for the league lead with 52 hits. As with Upton, the game comes easily to Gonzalez, but at times his approach is too easy. When he's not giving away at-bats and taking plays off, his above-average bat speed and plus raw power can be awe-inspiring. He has a sweet swing with leverage and loft, and he can drive balls out to all parts of the park. Gonzalez gets pull-happy and expands the strike zone, but his raw package of tools profile as an impact, everyday right fielder. He'll show glimpses of outstanding defense, with one of the best arms in the minors and fringe-average speed. His future will be determined by his desire to fulfill his potential. "He has a chance to be a run producer in the big leagues, but his approach is what is going to kill him," the first AL scout said.
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG 458 63 131 33 3 16 75 32 103 9 5 .286 .330 .476
11.	Mark Reynolds, 3b, Mobile BayBears (Diamondbacks)
B-T: R-R Ht.: 6-1 Wt.: 200 Age: 24 Drafted: Diamondbacks '04 (16)
The Diamondbacks summoned Reynolds from Mobile in mid-May when Chad Tracy was injured, and the slugging infielder spent the rest of the season as Arizona's everyday third baseman. He has plus power and an aggressive approach, which eventually led to an all-or-nothing mentality in the big leagues. He tied a major league record by striking out in nine straight plate appearances in August, though he also ranked third on the team with 17 homers in just 366 at-bats. He added a tiebreaking homer off Carlos Marmol in Game One of the National League Division Series. Reynolds' plus bat speed is his best asset. When he keeps his weight and hands back, he's a deadly hitter, mashing balls to left and left-center field. He tends to drift during his swing and often finds himself out on his front foot. Reynolds could refine his approach by improving his pitch selection and using the whole field with more frequency. He made 11 errors in just 23 games at third base in Mobile. His defense isn't a strength, as Reynolds' range and agility are underwhelming. He's a fringe-average runner underway.
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG 134 28 41 9 2 6 22 20 32 2 1 .306 .394 .537
12.	Chin-Lung Hu, ss, Jacksonville Suns (Dodgers)
B-T: R-R Ht.: 5-9 Wt.: 150 Age: 23 Signed: Dodgers '03
The Dodgers always believed Hu would hit, and the diminutive Taiwanese's offensive game turned the corner this year following his lackluster showing in a half-season in Jacksonville in 2006. His .325 average ranked third in the minors among full-season shortstops and he took home Futures Game MVP honors before earning promotions to Triple-A and eventually the majors. His outstanding defensive package--with the arm strength, footwork and hands of a Gold Glover--is his calling card, but he has honed his approach and become a tough out at the plate. Hu has gap power, consistently centers the top half of the ball and uses the whole field well. He's a slightly above-average runner. "He's a good shortstop who has the blend of tools and baseball player," a third scout scout said. "He's not going to just be a scratch guy at the plate and I really liked his defense."
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG 325 56 107 30 5 6 34 26 33 12 4 .329 .380 .508
13.	Brent Lillibridge, ss, Mississippi Braves
B-T: R-R Ht.: 5-11 Wt.: 180 Age: 23 Drafted: Pirates '05 (4)
Injuries in Atlanta triggered a series of moves that sent Yunel Escobar to the big leagues, Lillibridge to Triple-A and Diory Hernandez to Mississippi, and all three of them performed well upon their promotions. In his first year with the Braves following an offseason trade with Pittsburgh, Lillibridge established himself as a legitimate middle-infield prospect thanks to a well-rounded game and solid tools across the board. "When you see him everyday, he really makes an impression on you," the third scout said. "He's one of those guys who's a steady player, not flashy, definitely not Escobar or Rafael Furcal. But he makes all the plays and he shows you a plus tool when he needs to." Lillibridge has solid-average bat speed, barrel awareness and control of the strike zone. He drives balls from gap to gap and has a generally refined approach to hitting. He's an average runner, but he has a great first step, good hands, enough arm strength for the back side of double plays and the agility to make the play on the run.
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG 204 31 56 8 3 3 17 20 60 14 7 .275 .355 .387
14.	Jonathan Meloan, rhp, Jacksonville Suns (Dodgers)
B-T: R-R Ht.: 6-3 Wt.: 225 Age: 23 Drafted: Dodgers '05 (5)
After a dominant season in 2006, Meloan spent the first half of 2007 as Jacksonville's closer before climbing to Triple-A and the majors. Managers rated him the league's best reliever and he has the makings of a valuable late-inning man in the big leagues. Meloan has two speeds--hard and harder--and a tenacious attitude. He works primarily off an 89-94 mph fastball and a mid-80s slider that has touched 89. He also has feel for a curveball and changeup, but his slider and above-average command are his ticket. Meloan attacks both sides of the plate and pitches ahead in the count. His delivery is rigid and lacks fluidity, but he has shown resilience since arm soreness arose shortly after he was drafted in 2005.
G GS W L SV ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG 35 0 5 2 19 2.18 45 24 13 11 3 18 70 .155
15.	Max Scherzer, rhp, Mobile BayBears (Diamondbacks)
B-T:  R-R Ht.: 6-3  Wt.: 190  Age: 23 Drafted: Diamondbacks  '06 (1)
Just before Scherzer would have re-entered the 2006 draft, the Diamondbacks coughed up a four-year major league contract worth $4.3 million in guaranteed money to sign the 11th overall pick from 2005. Nicknamed "Max-a-million" by his teammates, he made three starts in high Class A before arriving in Mobile in late June. Scherzer's most attractive attribute is a sinking fastball that tops out near 95 mph. His mechanics need some work, as his release point is inconsistent and there's some effort to his delivery, but he does achieve good extension out front and his arm strength is obvious. Scherzer has a two-seamer he can run up to 90 mph, an 80-84 mph slider and a changeup, all of which have potential to be solid-average to plus offerings. But Scherzer's arsenal is inconsistent, and his overall command is below average. That leads some scouts to project he'll wind up in the bullpen, where he can focus on his fastball and slider. "It's an outstanding arm who needs polish and has some max effort to it, which impacts his ability to command the baseball," a fourth scout said. "The stuff is there, it's just a matter of if he can make that next step and command it."
G GS W L SV ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG 14 14 4 4 0 3.91 74 64 38 32 3 40 76 .235
16.	Jo Jo Reyes, lhp, Mississippi Braves
B-T: L-L Ht.: 6-2 Wt.: 230 Age: 22 Drafted: '03 (2)
Because of his stuff, frame and profile, Reyes gets compared Horacio Ramirez, who likewise signed with the Braves out of a southern California high school. Reyes made 14 starts at Mississippi before spending three months in the majors when injuries beset Atlanta's pitching staff. He struggled but did win two of his last three starts and posted a 3.10 ERA in September. Reyes doesn't have a true put-away pitch, but he has five weapons at his disposal, headlined by a fastball that ranges from 88-94 mph. He can add and subtract from his fastball, and also throws a cutter in the high 80s. His solid-average slider is his best secondary pitch, which he complements with a usable changeup and curve. He's erratic with his command at times, and Reyes has lapses when a series of mistakes leads to big innings. He profiles as a back-of-the-rotation starter. "He's a guy for me," the second scout said. "He can speed up and slow down bats, and he has enough effective wildness and enough stuff to get away with some of his inconsistency."
G GS W L SV ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG 13 13 8 1 0 3.56 73 63 31 29 5 35 71 .240
17.	Diory Hernandez, ss, Mississippi Braves
B-T: R-R Ht.: 5-11 Wt.: 170 Age: 23 Signed: Braves '02
In a year where the Braves emptied their farm system to trade for Mark Teixeira, Hernandez' emergence as a toolsy, versatile infielder with a chance to hit his way into an everyday role was a welcome development for their farm system. Hernandez has a short swing with good bat speed and excellent hand-eye coordination. He can drive balls from gap to gap and uses the whole field, though his approach tends to vacillate. Hernandez has pitch recognition and doesn't swing and miss often, though he could tighten his plate discipline. He's a plus runner, which aids his ability to play both middle-infield positions. Hernandez' actions are natural and easy, with a good first step, solid range, excellent hands and a fringe-average arm that plays up because of his quick exchange. One scout questioned Hernandez' instincts, and his minor league-high 22 times caught stealing (in 46 attempts) illustrate that he has a lot to learn about the nuances of the game.
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG 433 50 133 25 1 7 59 29 68 22 20 .307 .370 .418
18.	James McDonald, rhp, Jacksonville Suns (Dodgers)
B-T: L-R Ht.: 6-5 Wt.: 195 Age: 22 Drafted: Dodgers '02 (11)
Arm trouble prompted the Dodgers to move McDonald from the mound to the outfield shortly after they signed him in 2003. But the experiment was short-lived after McDonald hit .226 in Rookie ball in '04-'05. He took huge strides this season, and his 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings ranked fourth among full-season minor leaguers. The son of former National Football League receiver James McDonald, he has athleticism to spare and a loose if imperfect arm action that offers some deception. His fastball ranges from 88-92 mph and he has a knack for locating it. His curveball and changeup are inconsistent, but both have potential to develop into plus offerings. "What he has in his favor is deception," Gardner said. "From the dugout, you wouldn't think his fastball was all that great, but when you get to the plate, our hitters said it got on top of you quickly and was hard to hit."
G GS W L SV ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG 10 10 7 2 0 1.71 53 42 14 10 5 16 64 .218
19.	Gaby Hernandez, rhp, Carolina Mudcats (Marlins)
B-T: R-R Ht.: 6-3 Wt.: 210 Age: 21 Drafted: Mets '04 (3)
Hernandez more than held his own as a 21-year-old in Double-A. Marlins brass considered calling him to the big leagues, but he has to refine his command and improve his breaking ball before he's ready for Florida. He tossed a nine-inning complete game against Jacksonville in his final start in July, then tired down the stretch and put up an 8.48 ERA in the final month. Hernandez has all the ingredients for success: a solid-average fastball that touches 94 mph, an average changeup with occasional plus life, feel for pitching and a gameplan for every hitter. His curveball comes in at 75-78 mph with short break, but he has the hand speed and arm slot to create good spin, so it's mostly a matter of improving its shape. He's lauded for his work ethic, though at times tends to be too self-critical. Hernandez profiles as a back-of-the-rotation starter. Thanks to his durable frame, raw stuff and youth, he ultimately could be one of this SL crop's most successful pitchers.
G GS W L SV ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG 28 28 9 11 0 4.22 154 144 87 72 14 56 113 .245
20.	Alcides Escobar, ss, Huntsville Stars (Brewers)
B-T: R-R Ht.: 6-1 Wt.: 155 Age: 21 Signed: Brewers '03
Escobar recovered from a 7-for-44 spell at the start of his Double-A tour to bat .313 the rest of the way and then .385 in the playoffs. Nevertheless, his offensive game has a ways to go, as he has a long swing and well below-average power. As he strengthens his upper body, forearms and hands, he could develop into a solid-average hitter with an ability to drive balls from gap to gap. A long, sinewy athlete, Escobar isn't far from major league-ready as a defender. He has easy, natural actions at shortstop with above-average hands, range and arm strength. He tends to play with too much flare, but his .981 fielding percentage was tops in the league among regular shortstops. He's a plus runner.
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG 226 27 64 5 4 1 28 11 36 4 3 .283 .314 .354