Midwest League Top 20 Prospects

By Jim Callis
September 28, 2007

FIVE YEARS AGO

1. *Joe Mauer, c, Quad Cities (Twins)

2. Jason Stokes, 1b, Kane County (Marlins)

3. *Dontrelle Willis, lhp, Kane County (Marlins)

4. Donald Levinski, rhp, Clinton (Expos)

5. Brad Nelson, 1b, Beloit (Brewers)

6. *Casey Kotchman, 1b, Cedar Rapids (Angels)

7. *Scott Hairston, 2b, South Bend (Diamondbacks)

8. *Shin-Soo Choo, of, Wisconsin (Mariners)

9. *Jeff Mathis, c, Cedar Rapids (Angels)

10. Mike Jones, rhp, Beloit (Brewers)

*Has played in major leagues

The low Class A Midwest League witnessed a special crop of talent in 2006, led by outfielders Jay Bruce, Cameron Maybin and Justin Upton and Colby Rasmus. All have gone on to bigger and better things, with Bruce winning Baseball America's 2007 Minor League Player of the Year award, Maybin and Upton reaching the majors and Rasmus capturing the Double-A Texas League home run crown. The pitching group, led by Nick Adenhart and Jake McGee, was star-studded as well.

There was no way the MWL could live up to last year's standard, and it didn't. Nevertheless, the league was headlined by Great Lakes lefthander Clayton Kershaw, who can stake a claim to being the game's best pitching prospect, and Lansing outfielder Travis Snider, arguably the best teenage hitter in the minors. After those two, the star power dropped off considerably.

One constant that remained was West Michigan winning the league championship with a young, athletic center fielder on a club of mostly older players. The Whitecaps rode Maybin to the 2006 title and Gorkys Hernandez, the MWL's best all-around player, to a 2007 repeat.

1.	Clayton Kershaw, lhp, Great Lakes Loons (Dodgers)
B-T: L-L Ht.: 6-3 Wt.: 220 Age: 19 Drafted:Dodgers '06 (1)
The Dodgers handled Kershaw carefully in 2006 after drafting him seventh overall, then took the gloves off this year. After he blew away MWL hitters, they jumped him to Double-A and he had little trouble against much older hitters. Of course, it's easy to succeed with two legitimate swing-and-miss pitches. Kershaw had the best fastball in the league, a 93-95 mph buzzsaw, as well as one of the best curveballs. No minor league lefty can match his power stuff. His changeup could give him a third plus pitch, though he had little need for it until he got to Double-A. He has a clean delivery and mound presence well beyond his years, and he just needs to refine his command to complete the package. "He was by far the highest-ceiling minor league arm I saw all year. The second-best was Clay Buchholz," a National League scout said. "Kershaw could end up winning Cy Young Awards. Not many young guys do what he does."
G GS W L SV ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG 20 20 7 5 0 2.77 97 72 39 30 5 50 134 .203
2.	Travis Snider, of, Lansing Lugnuts (Blue Jays)
B-T: L-L Ht.: 5-11 Wt.: 230 Age: 19 Drafted:Blue Jays '06 (1)
Some scouts considered Snider the best hitter in the entire 2006 draft and he has done nothing to dispel that notion since turning pro. He was named the Rookie-level Appalachian League's MVP in his pro debut and he led the MWL in doubles (35), extra-base hits (58), RBIs (93) and slugging (.525) while finishing second in the batting race (.313). He hit .405 in April, and after pitchers adjusted to him, he counteradjusted and batted .333 with eight of his 16 homers in the final month. Snider is extremely advanced for a young hitter. He has a quick, powerful swing from the left side and already can handle southpaws and offspeed pitches. He'll have to watch the weight on his 5-foot-11, 230-pound frame and he topped the league with 16 outfield assists, but he's reasonably athletic, has a strong arm and should be able to handle left or right field. "He's got a chance to be an impact bat," the NL scout said. "He's the one guy in this league who will hit for both average and power. He can hit in the middle of a good big league lineup."
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG 457 72 143 35 7 16 93 49 129 3 10 .313 .377 .525
3.	Brett Anderson, lhp, South Bend (Diamondbacks)
B-T: L-L Ht.: 6-4 Wt.: 215 Age: 19 Drafted:Diamondbacks '06 (2)
Anderson can't match Kershaw's pure stuff, but he has a deeper repertoire and a better feel for pitching. He uses an 89-92 mph fastball with tailing action to set up a curveball he can locate with precision and a changeup that ranked as the league's best. He also can mix in a hard slider when he wants. "He reminds me of Kenny Rogers in the sense that he plays catch with the mitt," Beloit manager Jeff Smith said. "He has three pitches he can throw for strikes at any time." He relies on his curveball too much at times, but the only real knock on Anderson is that he hasn't taken conditioning seriously. He has a soft body and sometimes has trouble getting off the mound. If he gets in better shape, he could find more velocity for his fastball.
G GS W L SV ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG 14 14 8 4 0 2.21 81 76 26 20 3 10 85 .248
4.	Gorkys Hernandez, of, West Michigan (Tigers)
B-T: R-R Ht.: 6-0 Wt.: 175 Age: 19 Signed: Tigers '05
No one in the league could match Hernandez' total package of tools. Besides winning a championship ring, he also captured the MVP award, the stolen base title (54 in 65 attempts) and accolades as the MWL's fastest baserunner and most exciting player. He doesn't have Maybin's power potential, but Hernandez otherwise compares favorably to him and is more polished than Maybin was in the MWL. Hernandez made good adjustments against older pitchers and drew comparisons to Kenny Lofton as a speedster with true gap power. He's a fearless center fielder who covers a lot of ground and has a strong arm for his position. "He's going to save a lot of runs and he's going to score a lot of runs," Dayton manager Donnie Scott said. "That's what that kid's going to do."
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG 481 84 141 25 5 4 40 36 69 54 11 .293 .344 .391
5.	Hank Conger, c, Cedar Rapids (Angels)
B-T: B-R Ht.: 6-1 Wt.: 220 Age: 19 Drafted: Angels '06 (1)
Switch-hitting catchers with power are a rare breed, and the Angels may have one in Conger. He has a sound swing with plus pop from both sides of the plate. He takes an aggressive approach and consistently makes hard contact, and there's no question that his bat can take him to the big leagues. But it's still uncertain whether he'll get there as a catcher. MWL managers believe he will but scouts are less sanguine. Conger has a very strong arm and can get the ball down to second base in as fast as 1.9 seconds, but he also threw out just 21 percent of basestealers. He doesn't have quick feet, which slows down his release, and his receiving also most improve. Conger's development behind the plate has been slowed by injuries. He broke the hamate bone in his right hand during his pro debut, then missed six weeks at midseason this year because of lower back and hamstring issues.
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG 290 33 84 20 0 11 48 21 48 9 4 .290 .336 .472
6.	Carlos Triunfel, ss, Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (Mariners)
B-T: R-R Ht.: 5-11 Wt.: 175 Age: 17 Signed: Mariners '06
Triunfel arrived in Wisconsin with some fanfare after signing for $1.3 million out of the Dominican Republic last summer, yet he still took the league by storm. At 17 the MWL's youngest player, he batted .308 and showed off a cannon arm until he fouled a pitch off his right thumb and broke it in late May. Once he healed, he moved up to high Class A and kept hitting. Triunfel has considerable offensive promise but also several adjustments to make. He didn't show much power or patience in his pro debut. The pop should come in time, though he'll have to tone down his approach. As much as MWL observers liked Triunfel, they didn't see him staying at shortstop. He's a below-average runner with a thick lower half and less-than-classic actions. That said, he still has a high ceiling and his bat should profile at third base.
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG 152 18 47 8 2 0 14 12 31 4 4 .308 .342 .388
7.	Jose Ceda, rhp, Peoria Chiefs (Cubs)
B-T: R-R Ht.: 6-5 Wt.: 247 Age: 20Signed:Padres '04
Alert scouting allowed the Cubs to steal Ceda from the Padres last year. Chicago spotted him during spring training, then plucked him out of the Rookie-level Arizona League in a July trade for Todd Walker, who lasted all of 44 games in San Diego. When he wasn't sidelined for two months with shoulder stiffness, Ceda was the most overpowering pitcher in the MWL, holding opponents to a .093 average and one homer while striking out 66 in 46 innings. He works in the mid-90s and tops out at 98 mph with his fastball, and hitters can't cheat to catch up to it because he'll make them look silly with his tight slider. His stuff and his 6-foot-5, 247-pound frame earned him comparisons to Lee Smith and Armando Benitez. He's still figuring out his mechanics and his control, and it's easier to envision Ceda as a late-inning reliever and possibly a closer than as a frontline starter. But as the NL scout said, "You don't have to project him because he has big league stuff already."
G GS W L SV ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG 21 6 2 2 0 3.11 46 14 18 16 1 31 66 .093
8.	Gerardo Parra, of, South Bend Silver Hawks (Diamondbacks)
B-T: L-L Ht.: 6-0 Wt.: 200 Age: 20 Signed: Diamondbacks '04
Parra nearly made South Bend's Opening Day roster in 2006 as an 18-year-old, but a nagging hamstring injury ended his chances. He made up for lost time this year, winning the MWL batting title (.320) while displaying the league's purest hitting ability and strongest outfield arm. His constant energy also drew praise. "That might not be the last batting title he wins," another scout said. "His batting practice is so impressive. He never turns on a ball or hits it out of the park. It's hands inside the ball and spray, spray, spray, a page right out of the Tony Gwynn B.P. book. Then in games, he can turn on balls and hit them out of the park." With a quick bat and sound swing mechanics, Parra projects as a .290-.300 hitter with 15-20 homers annually. Those numbers would play better in center field, and while he saw action there for South Bend, his slighty below-average speed makes that unrealistic in the majors. His instincts give him basestealing ability and good range for right field, though there's some concern that he could become a tweener rather than a big league regular.
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG 444 64 142 25 4 6 57 30 51 24 8 .320 .375 .435
9.	Josh Bell, 3b, Great Lakes Loons (Dodgers)
B-T: L-L Ht.: 6-0 Wt.: 200 Age: 20 Signed: Diamondbacks '04
Third base was the most loaded position in the MWL this summer. Bell outclasses a group that also includes Johnny Whittleman (Clinton), Juan Francisco (Dayton) and Matt Sweeney (Cedar Rapids) because he has as much power as any of them, he's the lone switch-hitter and he has the best chance to stick at the hot corner. "He was as good a power hitter as anyone in the league, and he did it from both sides," an American League scout said. "He has a chance for special power and he does it easy. That's a special crack you hear off his bat when he hits it." Bell has good balance from both sides of his plate and can crush anything in the strike zone. He's still working on pitch selection and controlling the strike zone. He needs to take his defense and conditioning more seriously after leading MWL third basemen with 35 errors in just 90 games, but he has the hands and arm to play the position.
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG 398 65 115 21 3 15 62 39 109 5 1 .289 .354 .470
10.	Drew Stubbs, of, Dayton Dragons (Reds)
B-T: R-R Ht.: 6-4 Wt.: 200 Age: 22 Drafted: Reds '06 (1)
Stubbs' reputation as a gifted athlete with a nagging propensity to swing and miss preceded him to the MWL, and he lived up to it for the first four months of the season. Then Scott, frustrated by Dayton's teamwide lack of consistent contact, ordered the Dragons to choke up on their bats. Stubbs immediately felt comfortable with the adjustment and hit .366 with four homers and just 16 strikeouts in his final 24 games, compared to .248 with eight homers and 126 whiffs in his first 105 contests. If the new Stubbs is for real, he'll take off in 2008. And if he isn't, he's still has to be a chance to be a productive major league player without hitting for a high average, a la Torri Hunter. Stubbs has big-time bat speed and power and well above-average foot speed. He edged Hernandez as the league's best defensive outfielder and also finished first with 15 outfield assists. "When you talk about athletes and guys who can run like a gazelle and play a Gold Glove center field right now," the second scout said, "that's him."
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG 497 93 134 29 5 12 43 69 142 23 15 .270 .364 .421
11.	Tyler Herron, rhp, Swing of the Quad Cities (Cardinals)
B-T: R-R Ht.: 6-3 Wt.: 190 Age: 21 Drafted: Cardinals '05 (1s)
A supplemental first-round pick in 2005, Herron went 5-10, 4.67 and didn't advance past short-season ball in his first two years as pro. He finally made a full-season breakthrough in 2007, ranking as the best pitching prospect on a deep Quad Cities staff that also included older arms such as lefthander Brad Furnish and righties Kenny Maiques, P.J. Walters and Eddie Degerman. Herron has a loose, athletic delivery and three pitches that will be average or better. He maintained low-90s velocity on his fastball all season long and can locate it wherever he wants in the strike zone. Scouts were split on how much movement his heater had, as one liked its life and sink and another thought it was fairly straight. His changeup and curveball are effective as well, though he'll hang his curve on occasion. Herron showed a lot of poise for a pitcher who was 20 for most of the season, and he can add more strength to his frame. With runners on base, he goes to a quick slide step without compromising his stuff.
G GS W L SV ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG 30 22 10 7 1 3.74 137 123 62 57 7 26 130 .240
12.	Omar Poveda, rhp, Clinton LumberKings (Rangers)
B-T: R-R Ht.: 6-4 Wt.: 200 Age: 19 Signed: Rangers '04
Poveda pitched in the MWL last year as an 18-year-old, going 4-13, 4.88 for a bad Clinton team that went 45-94. Still one of the league's youngest pitchers in 2007, he helped lead the LumberKings into the playoffs and showed three quality pitches. Poveda's best offering is a nasty changeup, and his curveball is solid. Not only will he throw his secondary pitches in any count, but he also can get them over for strikes. He sets them both up with an average fastball that sits at 88-92 mph. While he's still young, Poveda is already physical at 6-foot-4 and 200 pounds and one scout compared him to Freddy Garcia. He doesn't have exceptional arm speed, so he may not add much more velocity, but he's very advanced for his age.
G GS W L SV ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG 21 21 11 4 0 2.79 126 94 44 39 10 32 120 .208
13.	Jeff Manship, rhp, Beloit Snappers (Twins)
B-T: B-R Ht.: 6-2 Wt.: 195 Age: 22 Drafted: Twins '06 (14)
Manship carved up the MWL before he left for high Class A in late June, allowing one run or less in 11 of his 13 starts and two runs in another. The only time he got hit was when he visited South Bend—where he pitched collegiately at Notre Dame—and tried to overthrow, costing him his usual exquisite command. He doesn't pinpoint his pitches quite as well as fellow Twins righty Kevin Slowey, but it's close. "He has a chance to fly through their system," the second scout said, "and become their next Brad Radke." Outside of his plus 12-to-6 curveball, Manship's stuff isn't as overwhelming as his numbers. His average fastball sits at 88-92 mph, and he also throws a changeup and an occasional slider. As a college pitcher with the ability to locate his pitches as well as he does, Manship should have dominated the MWL. He didn't overmatch hitters as much in the Florida State League, though he still went 8-5, 3.15 and continued to induce plenty of groundballs.
G GS W L SV ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG 13 13 7 1 0 1.51 78 51 15 13 4 9 77 .185
14.	John Whittleman, 3b, Clinton LumberKings (Rangers)
B-T: L-R Ht.: 6-2 Wt.: 195 Age: 20 Drafted: Rangers '05 (2)
Like Poveda, Whittleman was much improved and still young for the league in his second stint at Clinton. After batting .227/.313/.343 as a 19-year-old in 2006, he boosted those numbers to .271/.382/.476 before an August callup to high Class A. He also added a Futures Game homer off the Mets' Deolis Guerra. Whittleman had a quieter approach and better balance at the plate this season, and he didn't chase as many pitches. With his swing, strength and grasp of the strike zone, he has a chance to hit .280 with 15-20 homers annually in the majors. He doesn't profile as well at third base as Bell, but he has a better stroke and puts more effort into his defense. Playing third base is still a struggle for Whittleman, who has the arm strength but lacks sure hands and quick feet. He made 29 errors in 85 games, and his .880 percentage was worse than his 2006 mark of .891. He tailed off in July, batting just .154/.264/.179 as most observers thought he got frustrated because he wasn't promoted earlier.
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG 336 56 91 25 1 14 57 63 91 5 3 .271 .382 .476
15.	Juan Francisco, 3b, Dayton Dragons (Reds)
B-T: L-R Ht.: 6-2 Wt.: 180 Age: 20 Signed: Reds '04
After hitting just three homers in Rookie ball last year, Francisco won the MWL home run crown with 25, including 10 in the final month. In a league full of young power hitters, scouts and managers thought Francisco had the most raw pop of any of them. "He swings the bat with a lot of authority," Great Lakes manager Lance Parrish said. "He has a lot of potential and it's not too far in the future. He'll be leading every league he's in in home runs and he'll be an all-star." Francisco offers incredible pull power from the left side, though he needs to tone down his aggression and tighten his strike zone after fanning 161 times and walking only 23 in 135 games. He has a long swing and tends to chase balls in the dirt, but he's also just 20. He has enough arm and mobility to stay at third base, though he'll have to watch his weight to do so.
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG 534 69 143 21 4 25 90 23 161 12 6 .268 .301 .463
16.	Drew Miller, rhp, Fort Wayne Wizards (Padres)
B-T: R-R Ht.: 6-3 Wt.: 200 Age: 21 Drafted: Padres '05 (37)
Miller was an enigma. He showed the top three-pitch mix in the league when he was at his best, such as an April 24 outing in which he threw seven no-hit innings and struck out 11 against Quad Cities. But he went on the disabled list for six weeks with shoulder soreness after his next start, was inconsistent upon his return and got shelled to the tune of a 7.45 ERA in August. One scout rated Miller's curveball as a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale, and another graded his changeup as a 60-65. His fastball is also a plus pitch, sitting in the low 90s and touching 95. He's athletic and has a smooth delivery, which allows him to strikes. So why wasn't Miller more successful? Too often, his stuff faded by the fifth inning and he lost his composure when he got in jams. He has good control but he needs to do a better job of locating his pitches within the strike zone.
G GS W L SV ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG 16 16 4 6 0 4.69 81 74 45 42 12 24 87 .244
17.	Kasey Kiker, lhp, Clinton LumberKings (Rangers)
B-T: L-L Ht.: 5-10 Wt.: 170 Age: 19 Drafted: Rangers '06 (1)
As a 5-foot-10 fireballing lefthander, Kiker draws a lot of physical comparisons to Billy Wagner. He doesn't have Wagner's pure stuff, but he looks like he's destined to join Wagner (who also was a starter when he came through the MWL 13 years earlier) as a late-inning reliever. Kiker topped out at 97 mph in high school, but in his first full pro season his fastball sat more at 90-91 mph. He also flashes a hard, tight curveball. He has a quality arm yet still has a lot of work to do. Kiker's changeup, control and command all leave a lot to be desired. If he refines a third pitch and throws more strikes, he could remain a starter, but his size and the effort in his delivery lead to durability questions.
G GS W L SV ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG 20 20 7 4 0 2.90 96 84 35 31 10 41 112 .237
18.	Sean O'Sullivan, rhp, Cedar Rapids Kernels (Angels)
B-T: R-R Ht.: 6-1 Wt.: 220 Age: 20 Drafted: Angels '05 (3)
The highest-profile draft-and-follow from the 2005 draft—he signed for $500,000—O'Sullivan has won ERA titles in the Rookie-level Pioneer League (2.14) and MWL (2.22) in two seasons as a pro. His 6-foot-1, 220-pound frame isn't the prettiest and he doesn't have a true out pitch, but he may have had the league's best feel for pitching despite being one of its youngest starters (19 until Sept. 1). Though Cedar Rapids had more impressive arms in the likes of Trevor Bell and Warner Madrigal, O'Sullivan is the best bet to reach and succeed in the majors. O'Sullivan threw in the low- to mid-90s as a high school junior, but now he operates with an 88-90 mph sinker that he puts wherever he wants. His changeup is his best pitch, and his slider is the better of his two breaking balls. He can't blow hitters away, but he keeps them off balance and pitches above his stuff.
G GS W L SV ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG 25 25 10 7 0 2.22 158 136 58 39 6 40 125 .227
19.	Trevor Cahill, rhp, Kane County Cougars (Athletics)
B-T: R-R Ht.: 6-3 Wt.: 195 Age: 19 Drafted: Athletics '06 (2)
We asked three different scouts to identify Kane County's best pitching prospect, and we got three different answers. One went for Henry Rodriguez, who touches 98 mph but still is trying to figure out everything else about his craft. One opted for Andrew Bailey, who has three interesting pitches and finished the year in Triple-A (but also is 23). We went with Door No. 3: Cahill, Oakland's top pick (second round) in the 2006 draft, because he has the best chance to become a mid-rotation starter. His stuff is fringy to average across the board right now, with his two best pitches an 88-92 mph fastball with late sink and a slider that has his moments. But he's polished for a 19-year-old and matured as the season went on, allowing just six runs (never more than one in an outing) over his final nine starts. Because his delivery isn't especially loose or effortless, Cahill may not have as much projection remaining as his youth and lanky 6-foot-3, 195-pound frame might indicate. Yet if he refines his changeup and command, he should continue to have success.
G GS W L SV ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG 20 19 11 4 0 2.73 105 85 38 32 3 40 117 .220
20.	Tyler Robertson, lhp, Beloit Snappers (Twins)
B-T: L-L Ht.: 6-5 Wt.: 220 Age: 19 Drafted: Twins '06 (3)
As many teenage pitchers do, Robertson faced some adjustments in his first full year as a pro. Even after he spent the first two months in extended spring training, the grind of the longer season sapped some of the juice out of his fastball, which dropped from 90-94 mph as an amateur to 86-90 this year. The loss of velocity didn't faze Robertson, who had 143 strikeouts in 120 innings, including two stellar playoff starts. He piled up whiffs with a slider that he could get hitters to miss in the strike zone of chase off the plate. His big 6-foot-5 body gives him projection and good downward plane that creates a lot of groundballs. Robertson has an unorthodox, stiff delivery that works for him now but could lead to problems down the road. It's deceptive and throws hitters' timing off, though it also puts a lot of stress on his shoulder.
G GS W L SV ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG 18 16 9 5 1 2.29 102 87 33 26 3 33 123 .226