Moderator: Hey, everyone, this is Ben Badler. I’m pretty amped for this chat, so let’s get started. Feel free to ask questions about guys who are on the list as well as guys you might be wondering about who didn’t quite make the cut, as there are still some other intriguing guys in the league.
| Q: | Ralph from Sacramento, CA asks: How close was Orem OF Jeremy Moore to cracking the top 20? Kind of surprised he wasn't on there -- he showed a great power-speed combo this season, though his plate discipline needs some serious work. |
| A: | Ben Badler: There's a few questions about Moore in here, which I like to see. Moore just missed making the cut, and if you’re looking for No. 21, it’s probably him. He’s quite similar to Lyndon Estill, who did make the list at No. 20. Moore has one of the quickest bats in the league and he can kill a fastball. He has power, too, which is evident from his .262 isolated power. He’s come along way, but he still has room for improvement. He’s too aggressive, and he still needs to learn how to hit a breaking ball. He has the tools, though, and I’m optimistic about his future. |
| Q: | Josh from Wilmette, IL asks: Where was Juan Moreno, he is still pretty young, won pitcher of the year in the Pioneer League and showed tremendous control while striking out a good number of batters? |
| A: | Ben Badler: Josh, Moreno has an advanced feel for pitching, mixing his speeds and fooling opposing hitters. He's limited though because his fastball is 88-92 and his breaking ball is pretty slurvy. He'll spot his pitches, but more experienced hitters will probably give him trouble. He and Chacin both are advanced for their age, but the difference is that Chacin's secondary stuff is much better than Moreno's. |
| Q: | Ben from Baltimore asks: I'm very excited about Jordan Walden's future. What could Jordan Walden become in 5 years? |
| A: | Ben Badler: You should be excited about Walden because he is a great prospect, and I can see him becoming a very good major league starter. Walden improved his stock this summer as much as anyone. But remember, it's not like Walden is some new, breakout prospect; he was the No. 1 ranked high school prospect in the 2006 Prospect Handbook heading into the 2007 season before his high-90s velocity dipped to the high 80s and he slid in the draft. His velocity is back, though, and even more encouraging is that he's holding that velocity into the later innings. He might legitimately be the best pitching prospect in the Angels system. |
| Q: | Patrick from Milwaukee, WI asks: Is it safe to say that Mike Moustakas and Matt LaPorta, the two highest picks from this past year's draft to play in the Pioneer League (not Poreda), would have been 1-2 in this league had they played long enough to qualify for consideration? |
| A: | Ben Badler: Couple of questions about these guys, and yes, Moustakas would have been No. 1 and LaPorta would have been No. 2. They just didn't have enough plate appearances to qualify. |
| Q: | Tim from NY asks: Having seen Frazier crush balls at Rutgers this spring first hand, one concern I had about his approach was the way that he would drop his hands below chest level and then start the bat toward the ball from there. Typically, this can become a big problem with wood bats against high level pitching, especially guys who can locate quality fastballs on the inner third. Was this raised as an issue with him? |
| A: | Ben Badler: That's an excellent question, and it's something that is true about Frazier. Frazier's swing mechanics are unorthodox, and although people around the league gave it mixed reviews, he does have a line drive stroke and has some power projection left. I think he can still hit for a high batting average at the major league level, but even if he only hits in the .270-.280 range, his patience and power potential make him a valuable hitter. |
| Q: | Patrick from Milwaukee, WI asks: Since Gindl doesn't have the ideal size, which could be one of those things that somewhat dogs his reputation as a prospect as he advances the next several years, does it say a lot to the impression he made on managers and scouts that he ended up ranking second overall in this league ahead of more ideal prospects in regards to size such as Jordan Walden and Aaron Poreda? |
| A: | Ben Badler: I think you're probably right in that assessment, Patrick, but it's not like people aren't big (no pun intended) on Walden or Poreda either, which is why they're also ranked highly on the list. Also keep in mind that pitchers this far from the major leagues have their value discounted somewhat due to the risk of injury they carry. As for Gindl, pretty much everyone I spoke with who saw him play thought he was one of the top players if not the top player in the Pioneer League. He’s remarkably mature for his age, both in terms of his approach to hitting and his demeanor. We list his age at 19 because our cutoff date is September 3, but he played most of the year at age 18 before turning 19 on August 31. Most hitters his age in that league are raw, usually showing flashes of their tools or potential, but they don’t hit .372.420.580, which did Gindl did. He doesn’t fit the classic body type that scouts generally look for, like you said, but it’s difficult to question his baseball skills after the year he had. He won’t maintain that line because his batting average will decrease, but he has a skill set that projects well for someone his age. |
| Q: | Ben from Baltimore asks: Can you tell us a little about Jay Brossman and what his potential might be? |
| A: | Ben Badler: Ben, Brossman was 22 years old this year. He hit .346, which is commendable, but he lacks important secondary skills, including the ability to consistently draw walks and hit for power. He only walked in six percent of his plate appearances, which isn’t good for anyone and is a red flag for someone his age at this level. He’s strong, but his power isn’t anything special, and he mostly took advantage of inexperienced pitchers leaving bad breaking balls up in the zone. There are also defensive concerns with him. He’s an interesting story, and worth keeping an eye on, but not top 20 material. |
| Q: | Warren from Texas asks: Use your crystal ball and Predict Salvador Sanchez' future five years from now. Thanks for the chat. |
| A: | Ben Badler: Well, I'm not some kind of sorcerer, so I can't look into a crystal ball, but I will say that the forecast for Sanchez has a fairly wide range of outcomes, everything from a talented big leaguer to a flameout. Maybe that seems like some kind of a cop out answer, but it's the truth. Some people who saw Sanchez thought he was one of the top prospects in the league because his combination of power and speed might be unmatched in the Pioneer League this year. He played mostly right field this year and has a plus arm, but he played some center field and would be more valuable there. His slash stats—.343.394.544—look nice on the surface, but his high on-base percentage was largely fueled by his .343 batting average, which I don't think is sustainable for a hitter who strikes out in 19 percent of his plate appearances at this level. The power is real, but his plate discipline has always been poor and it needs to improve. He was 21 years old this season, so he’ll have to give low A another try after not faring so well there in his first stint. |
| Q: | ScottAZ from PhxAZ asks: With Estill's sizepowerathleticism combo why didn't he rate higher than guys that were repeating the league? 7 jacks in your 1st 130 ABs with wood is pretty good |
| A: | Ben Badler: Scott, I like Estill, which is why he made the list in the first place. I'll take repeating the league into consideration, but I'm mostly concerned with ranking prospects based on their future major league potential and their likelihood of reaching that potential. Estill has big-time physical tools, and he has already shown the ability to hit for power, as you mentioned, which is a good sign for his development. Another good sign for him is that he walked in 10 percent of his plate appearances. A combination of patience, power and athleticism sounds pretty good to me. The problem is his strikeout rate—40 percent. Power hitters typically have high strikeout rates, which is fine, but 40 percent is too high. He has a lot of holes in his swing that scouts and managers think he will need to fix, but given how much time he spent focusing on football in high school, he may develop a little later than most now that he is focusing full-time on baseball. If he can cut down on the Ks, he could have a breakout year. |
| Q: | Tobias Funke from California asks: How good of a prospect is Brewers DF Nick Tyson? He put up good numbers and seems to be a big guy. What is his upside? |
| A: | Ben Badler: Tyson throws in the low 90s, he's a good athlete and his breaking pitch is improving. He locates well, and he's certainly worth keeping an eye on. He's one of a few relievers in that league who just missed making the list. Scott Gaffney, Wander Perez and Ryan Brasier also have interesting profiles as relievers. Where are all the Wander Perez questions? Doesn't anyone want to know how a guy who throws in the mid- to high-80s ends up with 62 strikeouts in 43 innings? |
| Q: | John from Harrisonburg, VA asks: Clint Robinson put up 336388593 numbers at Idaho Falls, and was the league MVP; how close was he to the top 20? |
| A: | Ben Badler: A couple questions here about Robinson, and how despite his numbers and his league MVP award, he didn't crack the Top 20. I'll answer those questions here. Robinson no doubt had a productive year and helped the Chukars win ball games, and his numbers look pretty, but let's take a closer look at those stats. First, Robinson is 22 years old, so he's old relative to his level. Yet he still walked in only seven percent of his plate appearances, and that rate will likely decline as he faces more advanced pitching. Now, that rate was a little bit higher at Troy last year, but it's quite possible that he was just being pitched around. Also keep in mind that the Pioneer League is a hitter-friendly league, and within that league the Chukars play in a hitter-friendly park. You can even see that somewhat from his homeroad splits (.393.453.693 at home, .265.303.469 on the road). Add in that Robinson played a lot of the year at DH and not even at 1B due to his defensive limitations, and his value takes another hit. He had a fine year, but the numbers I care about are the ones that have predictive value, and I based on that and the reports we got, I don't think the 25th-rounder belongs in the Top 20. |
| Q: | Chris from Gaylord, MI asks: Who do you compare Frazier to at this stage in his career? Brandon Waring seems to be rated a slight bit higher than I would've him. I think he is going to be a career minor leaguer. What are your thoughts on my assessment? |
| A: | Ben Badler: I'm not too big on comparisons because every player is unique, both in terms of their skills and their frames, and because comps tend to be made more to memorable big leaguers rather than the forgotten minor leaguers who never made it to the majors. That said, Frazier fits into a fairly typical profile of an experienced, polished hitter out of college. His offensive skills are multi-dimensional enough to put him up at No. 1. As for Waring, you may end up being right. But he has very good power. He did have a lot of strikeouts, but those aren’t too big of a concern for me because he can hit for some serious power. However, he is mainly a fastball hitter, and will need to refine his approach toward hitting off-speed pitches. Pioneer League pitchers won’t exploit that weakness, but hitters at higher levels in the minor leagues will, so it will be a key area of development for Waring. |
| Q: | Micah from Anaheim, CA asks: I heard good things on Donato Giovanatto. He showed more power in pro ball with wood than at the college level with aluminum. How do his tools project as he advances in the angels system? |
| A: | Ben Badler: Micah, Giovanatto did show some power, but he also turns 23 years old next month. He doesn't walk much, and he strikes out too often for someone his age at this level of competition. I would temper any enthusiasm about his performance projecting forward. |
| Q: | Molokai from LosAngeles asks: I figured that Jamie Pedroza would suffer because of his age but then I see guys older or near the same age that he outhit getting ranked. So what are the scouts saying that kept him off the list? If he's not a SS, are we talking 2nd base? His line of 360413569982 was better then Frazier and he's a year younger so I know this is a scout thing. |
| A: | Ben Badler: I disagree that Pedroza had a better year than Frazier had, or that it's a "scout thing." It's just an overall analysis of the players. Pedroza got some consideration for the list, but his bat wasn’t good enough to make it. He plays in a very hitter-friendly park in a hitter-friendly league, so keep that in mind when looking at his numbers. I know it’s a small sample size (well, all evaluations of Rookie-league numbers are based on small sample sizes), but Pedroza hit .403.433.689 in 119 at-bats at home, and just .304.389.413 in 92 road at-bats. He has a good arm, but there are questions about whether he can stay at shortstop. He is probably worth the 9th round pick the Dodgers used to pick him, but he doesn’t belong in the top 20. |
| Q: | Vic from Portland asks: Does Jordan Walden have the secondary stuff to project as a potential #1 in the majors? |
| A: | Ben Badler: I'm not crazy about labeling pitchers with "#1" potential, given that when you look back on the history of pitching prospects, there are plenty of guys who didn't look like future aces who went on to be some of the best pitchers in their leagues. Look at Brandon Webb, for example. But yes, Walden does have good arm speed on his breaking ball, and with more time it should be a plus pitch. His changeup lags behind, but so do most 19-year-olds' changeups. He has very good potential. |
| Q: | Steve R. from Chicago asks: Ok Ben, I'll ask the Wander Perez question. What's his story? I know he was a product of the White Sox Dominican operation and that he's got a slight build. |
| A: | Ben Badler: Thanks, Steve. Wander is 22 years old, so he's old for the league, but his numbers stood out to me because he struck out 69 batters in 43 innings (31 percent of opposing batters). You would think he'd have power stuff with that strikeout rate, but his fastball is only 85-90 mph. The White Sox changed his arm slot this year so that he's now coming out at a sidearm angle. Neither his curve nor his changeup really stand out, either, but his ball has a lot of tailing movement away from righthanded hitters, and it chews them up. He's not conventional, but he could have a future in a bullpen getting righthanders out. |
| Q: | Barry D. from Cube City asks: Thnaks for the chat! We Reds fans are used to having hitters in the pipeline, but can't we hope for more? How well did hard-throwing lefthanders Phil Valiquette and Drew Bowman show this summer? |
| A: | Ben Badler: Barry, Valiquette is a reliever worth following. Bowman, however, wasn't quite as impressive. He got hit around pretty hard this year, and he doesn't miss too many bats with his stuff, and he'll be 21 years old next year. I would be more optimistic about Valiquette's future than Bowman's. |
| Q: | Jim from Anaheim asks: What are your thoughts on Robert Fish? Seems like he had a nice year and he's young |
| A: | Ben Badler: I like Fish (although he’s no Tim Salmon). The strikeout rate is very good for a 19-year-old, he’s a lefty, and his fastball can hit up to 93 mph. The command isn’t there, but it should improve. I can understand if someone thinks I’m rating either Fish or Jhoulys Chacin somewhat conservatively, but keep in mind that Fish is a pitcher in a Rookie league, which means he still has a few more years to prove he can stay healthy. If he can stay healthy, he could turn out to be quite the catch (ok, I’ll stop now). |
| Q: | DB from Clifton, VA asks: Billings pitching was a mess. Do they have any decent prospects on that staff? |
| A: | Ben Badler: One guy who caught my eye and got some positive responses from people around the league who saw him was Scott Gaffney. He pitched 24 innings of relief and had a 6.00 ERA, but, aside from the problems associated with evaluating relievers based on their ERA (especially given just a 24-inning sample), Gaffney's season was encouraging because he still struck out 30 percent of opposing hitters. His fastball is 92-94 with some sinking movement and his slider is a very good pitch. Gaffney was a two-way player at Penn State, so he's a good athlete and he's now finally focusing on pitching full-time. I'm a big fan of athletic two-way players who finally make the switch to full-time pitcher (Buchholz, Owings, etc.), and although Gaffney clearly isn't in that class and only projects as a middle reliever, I could see him fitting into a big league bullpen somewhere down the line. |
| Q: | joe from chicago asks: First, cudos on Duane Shafer's last draft in Chicago. I believe Jimmy Gallagher from Great Falls was left off the Pioneer League All-Star teams. That he made #18 on the prospect list for the league was major redemption for what was a very consistent and above average first season. He was the Coastal Plains Lg. MVP last summer and continued to hit at DUKE this year. He sounds like a solid candidate to be a 4th outfielder on a championship team and a possible starter on a 2nd division team. I heard a few comparisons to a lesser Erstad. Any thoughts? Could he be packaged in the off-season in the back end of a trade? |
| A: | Ben Badler: First off, he won't be traded in the off-season because he was just drafted in June. I don't see the Erstad comp working at all. Erstad was a very toolsy player, and Gallagher is quite the opposite. Gallagher will improve as he gets older, but his improvement is going to be in much smaller increments than you will see from a player like Austin Gallagher or Jaime Ortiz. Gallagher is a tremendously intelligent hitter, and was able to prey upon inferior Pioneer League pitchers. I tried to find managers, coaches or scouts who liked his tools, but while his plate discipline is top notch, his tools really are fringy. The other thing going against him is that Gallagher can’t play a premium defensive position. If he could play second base, for example, he would rank much higher on this list. He did play a little bit in center field this year, but scouts say his range and below average arm are going to confine him to left field. The bar is set extremely high for a player to have value at that position. The numbers are great, but the statistics are only an estimate of a player’s true skills; we rely on the knowledge of scouts to paint the rest of the picture. All that said, he’s on this list because he does have potential, and I could certainly see him outperforming many of the guys ahead of him on this list. |
| Q: | D. Cornell from Madison, WI asks: What's your take on David Christensen (COL)? Did the Rockies waste a pick on him? He's still pretty young...what adjustments does he have to make to advance? |
| A: | Ben Badler: He was a candidate for the back end of the list, but that was more based on his draft status (2006 2nd rounder) than anything else. The phrase, “really, really raw” came up frequently in conversations I had about him. His bat speed is fine, and when he makes contact he can drive the ball. The problem is, he doesn’t make contact frequently enough, as he struck out in 39 percent of his plate appearances. He has always struggled with pitch recognition, and it looks like it might be his downfall. |
| Q: | Patrick from Milwaukee, WI asks: If Adrian Ortiz checked in at #19, I'm guessing Lee Haydel, who is a similar prospect and several years younger, wouldn't be that far behind. |
| A: | Ben Badler: Haydel is only 6 months younger than Ortiz, and his year wasn't that impressive. He doesn't walk much, the power isn't there... there wasn't much there with the bat this year. Ortiz didn't rank on the list for his future potential with the bat, either, though. Ortiz made the back of this list mainly based on his speed and defense. He can put the ball in play, but his bat is nothing special. The Royals want him to be a leadoff hitter, but he walked in only three percent of his plate appearances. Three. That is not a typo, and it’s disturbingly low for any draft pick from the first five rounds, let alone a college hitter. Compounding matters is that Ortiz has no power. He was one of the fastest players in the draft, though, he bunts well and he can play good defense in center field, although his instincts still aren’t the best. He’s not someone to get too excited over, but his skills have enough virtues to make the back end of the list. And besides, players with similar skill sets have parlayed their talents into 5-year, $44 million contracts before. |
| Q: | Tony from Bangor, Maine asks: Ben, How much can we discount the offensive production and high ERA's ? What's the biggest factor, is it small parks, altitude, wind ? Thank you |
| A: | Ben Badler: Good question, Tony. Some of the parks are smaller, but the altitude also has a lot to do with it. We take those considerations into factor when ranking prospects, and we also rely heavily on scouting reports from knowledgable people to assess a player's true talent level. ERA is sort of a flimsy stat in terms of its predictive value any way... I prefer to look at strikeout and walk rates, and to have the scouts tell me whether a guy has the stuff and the proper mechanics to stay healthy and succeed at a higher level. The scouting reports are probably the most important part of the evaluation of a pitcher, though. |
| Q: | Jared from CA asks: Were there any other Ogden Raptors who got consideration for the league's Top 20? |
| A: | Ben Badler: Wilfreo Diaz is a lefty who had a decent year out of the bullpen. His ERA was 4.58, but he also struck out 61 batters in 55 innings. He's 20 years old, and he got some consideration for the back end of the top 20, but did quite have enough to make it in there. |
| Q: | Carl C from aRLINGTON, tx asks: What are the Reds' going to do with their 2007 SS draft picks, Frazier, Soto and Cozart. All three play the same position, and all three should probably be going to Dayton next year. Anyone moving off SS.... |
| A: | Ben Badler: Well, I'll comment on Frazier since he played in the Pioneer League. I don't think he will stay at shortstop, and pretty much everyone I talked to who saw him play in his pro debut came away saying the same thing. I say that not just because he’s big and doesn’t fit the prototype of a flashy slick-fielding glove guy, but because he legitimately does not have the range to stay there. There is a chance he can stick at third base, but his bat is good enough to be valuable even at a corner outfield position. |
| Q: | Jeremy from Pheonix asks: Give us a MLB comp for Reynaldo Navarro. Does he stick at SS, or eventually move to 2B. |
| A: | Ben Badler: Navarro is a no-doubt shortstop. I’m not sure if I got this through as well as I wanted to in my write-up of Navarro, but his defense is spectacular. Yes, the errors are high, mostly because he’ll occasionally botch the routine play, but also because he gets to balls that even most good fielders can’t get to. He has excellent actions in the field and can make some spectacular plays. But it’s not just the spectacular plays that stand out, it’s the number of hits he saves with his range. He’s still young, so once his defense gets even more consistent watch out. His bat is another story, but it’s difficult to assess a kid who should still be in high school playing against this level of competition. His .250 batting average seems reasonable, but his walk rate was among the worst in the league. Again, he’s 17, but that’s still remarkably low. He has a line drive stroke, though, so if he can turn out to be at least a decent hitter, his value will play up because of his defense. |
Moderator: I had a great time chatting, but it's time to get going. If you have any further questions about players in the PL, drop me an e-mail via the Talk Back bottom at the top right of the homepage. And be sure to check in tomorrow for Aaron Fitt's detailed coverage of the New York-Penn League.