League Top 20 Prospects

Southern League Top 20 Prospects Chat




Q:  Michael from Toronto asks:
Suprised to see Jeff Niemann ranked only 8th after the way he dominated the 2nd half. How far behind the top 3 guys is he?
 A: 

Chris Kline: Hey everyone . . . seems like I was just here the other day, and I'm happy to be back so soon. Listening to the '89 Cubs (The band, not the team), so let's get after it . . .

Chris Kline: Niemann was very good in the second half, which is also the only half he pitched. The medical history is the primary reason for his ranking, but his stuff was filthy--especially the slider which was described to me as having 'roller coaster spin,' by an American League scout. If he can stay healthy, he's a beast.

 Q:  Matt from Houston asks:
Okay, Scott Moore led the league in homers, posted a respectable OBP, voted the league's best defensive 3B and wasn't too old for the league, but wasn't top 20? He's better than Eric Patterson.
 A: 

Chris Kline: Moore was in the 21-23 range--despite being voted the league's top defender at third, reports were that his footwork and mechanics were still in need of major work. He had a great year, but needs to be more consistent in his approach--his pitch recognition isn't the greatest and still K's too much. For me, Patterson and Mississippi infielder Yunel Escobar were both ahead of him.

 Q:  Nate from Chicago asks:
Thanks for doing the chat...Broadway doesn't have a high ceiling in terms of stuff, however, with his polish and command who does he remind you of? I use this example as wishful thinking, but could he compare to a Greg Maddux or a righthanded Glavine? Are there any position players on Birmingham who could make a splash at the Major League level?
 A: 

Chris Kline: That's very wishful thinking, Nate. And unfortunately a little out of the realm of possibility due to the lack of changeup. Broadway seldom used it in college and only really started working on it during instructional league last year, so if he picks it up quickly his upside becomes much greater. Right now he's a back end of the rotation guy or a middle reliever. In terms of position players at Birmingham, the one guy who stands out in my mind is Pedro Lopez at SS, but managers and scouts I talked to liked Gonzalez (Tennessee) and Hu (Jacksonville) better.

 Q:  Greg Tabeek from Ft Lauderdale asks:
Would you expect the Cubs to move Sean Gallagher to AAA next season?? Oneri Fleita the Cubs Minor Lg Director is known for moving players quickly. Sean was able to handle the move to AA even with some control issues but worked those out if you look at his last 4 starts. Could you see the same happening for him as did Sean Marshall making the Club with a good ST or will the Cubs move cautiously?? Last question do you still see him as a #3 starter and thanks for your answers....
 A: 

Chris Kline: If there's a need, that could certainly happen, Greg, and you're right, Gallagher was dominant late in the year. I still think he needs time in Double-A, however. The walks are a legit concern, and he's still learning how to command his changeup. But there's a lot to like--and yes, probably a No. 3 or 4.

 Q:  JAYPERS from IL asks:
Votto unquestionably had a breakout year in 2006. Does Cincy have an opening at 1B for him, or does he need more time to prove this year wasn't a fluke?
 A: 

Chris Kline: No doubt. Votto doesn't have much development left to do, but could benefit with some Triple-A time--maybe similar to what happened with Edwin Encarnacion in 2005. Put him down there for half a season and see what happens. Votto proved he could make adjustments, and he's a grind-it-out gamer with excellent makeup and work ethic. It's funny what happens when you're not constantly in an 0-1 hole.

 Q:  Phillip from Overland Park, KS asks:
Do you project George Kottaras as an '07 arrival for the Red Sox? Will he be a guy who makes a difference or just another platoon catcher?
 A: 

Chris Kline: Overland Park, a number of scouts and field staff killed Kottaras for his receiving skills behind the plate, as well as his game-calling. So there's a lot of development left to do in my opinion. The power from the left side could potentially be a difference-maker, but there are an awful lot of questions about his defensive tools, as well as how well he handles a staff.

 Q:  Henry from Berkeley asks:
Did Dan Smith make any sort of impression on the coaches and scouts you talk to? That 12.8 K9 ratio ain't too shabby, especially for a guy who left baseball for a couple years to hold down a construction job. I was gonna say he might be the next Chuck James, but he is much more of a ground ball pitcher than Chuckie.
 A: 

Chris Kline: Smith is definitely a sleeper in the Braves' system with fringy average stuff, good command and a solid feel for pitching. Not sure about the ground ballfly ball numbers though--against righthanded hitters, he was 2441; 1416 vs. lefties. But there is no question he's an interesting arm, likely working out of the pen and not the rotation.

 Q:  Bill from Tempe, AZ asks:
Chris, thanks for the chat. Brian Dopirak was the Cubs top prospect after a breakout season in Low A and a good AFL performance, but not much has gone right for him since then. He likely didn't even merit any consideration for this list. Is there any glimmer of prospect status left for the guy or does it look like he'll top out as a AAA lifer? On another note, I'm looking forward to your AFL reports in a few weeks!
 A: 

Chris Kline: I'm looking forward to it as well, Bill, and I appreciate you saying that. Dopirak wasn't right healthwise all year after breaking his foot on Opening Day, but you still expected more out of him. There's still huge raw power in there, however, so I wouldn't hang the Craig Brazell tag on him just yet. Oh, wait . . . Brazell was back in Double-A this year . . . in Jacksonville actually. But no, I don't think he's a Four-A guy--not yet anyway.

 Q:  vinnie chase from queens, ny asks:
whats the future hold for andy sonnanstine? what kind of role does he project to have in the big leagues?
 A: 

Chris Kline: Vinnie--LOVE the show . . . Sonnanstine is a back-of-the-rotation guy with pinpoint control who varies his arm angle a lot to switch up what he's showing hitters. His changeup was huge for him on the run he went on, and with as intelligent as he is, it'd be tough not to think this guy makes his MLB debut at some point next season.

 Q:  Adam from NYC asks:
How close was it between Homer Bailey and Yovanni Gallardo at the #1 spot? Their stats are so similar ro each other, and Gallardo even had a lower AVG over 10 more innings. Who do you see reaching the Majors first? Which do you see becoming more of a future ace?
 A: 

Chris Kline: It was close, but Bailey's fastball has more velocity and better command. Add to that at least one secondary pitch that grades out as above-average--even though he didn't use it much--and that's the difference. But they are similar in terms of body, though Gallardo is a little thicker and in terms of delivery. To answer your two questions, I'll go Bailey and Bailey.

 Q:  Frank from STL asks:
Was Nick Stavinoha close? He had a terrible couple weeks after returning from an injury, but other than that he raked.
 A: 

Chris Kline: Frank . . . Texas League is Tuesday, dude. Try to hang in there this Columbus Day weekend for Will Lingo's insight. I'm sure there are some cool furniture sales or something going on.

 Q:  Jake from Bartlett, IL asks:
Chris, love the chat. It sounds like Braun has more opposite field power and speed than LaRoche. Does Braun's offensive package grade out higher than LaRoche's? Is LaRoche's ranking above Braun due to the possibility that Braun may have to move off of third in the future, LaRoche's defensive ability, or some other factor? Thanks for taking my questions.
 A: 

Chris Kline: Thanks, Jake. Yes and yes on the oppo power and speed with Braun over LaRoche. Braun arguably had the best power in the SL this year. LaRoche is the better defender and has the best shot to remain there long term. LaRoche did just have labrum surgery, so there's a question about him now as well. But I'd take the better defender with comparable power over the guy with an uncertain position.

 Q:  Adam from NYC asks:
Where would Evan Longoria have ranked had he qualified? Does he have a higher overall upside than Ryan Braun?
 A: 

Chris Kline: Again, a better defender than Braun, but not enough ABs to qualify. Comparable bats, but Braun has more raw juice.

 Q:  Jason from Charlotte asks:
Salty endured a rough first half of the season. He rebounded a little with a decent second half. Does he have something to prove at the AFL? Do you think the Varitek comparsions are still valid?
 A: 

Chris Kline: Jason, Salty rebounded after the hand injury, and yes--there is most certainly something to prove. I think Salty would be the first one to tell you that. And I'm still on the Varitek comp . . . the body, the arm strength, and the strides he made defensively all make him a more complete package. I know there is a lot of worry about Salty--especially based on some of the questions being asked about him here--but he hit a lot of balls hard, and like he said back in June, 'If I was striking out every time, then I'd be worried.' He's a confident player and no matter how much he struggled this year, he never really got down on himself. He's still one of the top catching prospects in the game.

 Q:  Mike Emeigh from Raleigh, NC asks:
Chris: Having seen all of the guys on this list (some of them multiple times), I'm surprised that Sonnanstine is below Gallagher, Lumsden, and Talbot. I know that these rankings take into account both ceiling and performance, but I'd still like to hear the rationale for putting all three of the other pitchers above Sonnanstine.
 A: 

Chris Kline: Yeah! Mudcats represent! It comes down to stuff, stuff and more stuff. I can see Gallagher and Sonnanstine being viewed as similar, but Gallagher has a better curveball and he's a couple years younger. Lumsden is a lefty with more velocity and a power breaking ball, and Talbot showed plus velocity with good secondary stuff--and was completely untouchable in the postseason with back-to-back nine-inning shutouts.

 Q:  Roy Hobbs from Buffalo, New York asks:
Do you see Salas as a closer, in the next 2 years, or would you suggest him to be more of solid middle guy, rather than closer material. Thanks
 A: 

Chris Kline: Could be a setup guy first, then close . . . v. difficult to say anyone's going to be a closer--tough to groom in the minors. His stuff is electric, and I know he's 27 and everything and one of the oldest Futures Gamers ever, but he's been pitching for like a year and a half. He still needs to learn little nuances of attacking hitters, but the movement on both his fastball and slider are both pretty ridiculous.

 Q:  Matt from Dekalb, IL asks:
Does Alberto Gonzalez have any chance to be an above average hitting shortstop, or is he basically a Cesar Izturis type?
 A: 

Chris Kline: Tough one, Matt. He's gotten off to slow starts two years in a row, but he was more consistent this year once he got rolling. Smokies hitting coach Tony Dello was instrumental in getting him to buy into a plan, and really being more mentally prepared each day he came to the park. Izturis is a good comp, but I think there's a little more upside with the bat.

 Q:  Roy Hobbs from Buffalo, NY asks:
Do you see the Dodgers commiting to Matt Kemp next year form the outset, or will he be a likely call up for an injury and either make his niche or fail.
 A: 

Chris Kline: Have you been watching Kenny Lofton in the postseason? I think the way he played CF last spring in big league camp set him confidence-wise and placed him firmly in Ned Colletti's mind for next season. Then to show he could contribute in the big leagues this year only added to his cause. He's their everyday guy in 2007.

 Q:  Robert Goldberg from Lyndhurst, NJ asks:
I'm listening to the new Hold Steady album personally, but I digress. How close was Chin-Lung Hu to the top 20? And what does he project as offensively?
 A: 

Chris Kline: I can't stop listening to that record either. And I actually lived in Nutley, so allow ME to digress . . . Hu just missed it. I know Hu won our Best Tools survey as best defensive SS, but Gonzalez was just as good and has a slightly better bat.

 Q:  Mike Marinaro from Tampa, FL asks:
Was there any player you wish qualified for the list that did not?
 A: 

Chris Kline: Carlos Gonzalez, but that's just me. Blake DeWitt is another, but Gonzalez is one of my favorites in the minors. I know some people dog him as having makeup issues, but I didn't see anything to call that into question in the few times I've had the privledge to seetalk to him. Total RF package.

 Q:  Mike Marinaro from Tampa, FL asks:
What is Yunel Escobar's ceiling in the major leagues? Can he be an offensive-minded shortstop on a playoff caliber team?
 A: 

Chris Kline: Back-to-back Marinaro! I don't think so--he played short, third and second this year, and really the only place he's interesting to me is at second. He runs OK, but doesn't hit for enough power to play 3B and doesn't have the range to play SS. He showed something at 2B, and that's where he profiles best.

 Q:  Jim from The Land Where Questions Never Get Answered asks:
Where would Brignac have ranked on this list if he qualified? Quite a showing at AA for a player just leaving the friendly confines of the Cal League. Thanks.
 A: 

Chris Kline: Wow, and I thought I lived in an obscure place. No doubt Brignac held his own at the next level, but still is going through some issues defensively. That said, he's the second-best SS in the minors behind Brandon Wood. he would have ranked pretty high, but not above Bailey or Gallardo.

 Q:  Jon from Peoria asks:
Jaime D'Antona had a pretty solid year for Tennessee. Does he figure to play 1B or 3B? What are your thoughts on Ross Ohlendorf?
 A: 

Chris Kline: D'Antona improved with the bat this season, but also improved his versatility and he actually likes working behind the plate. He's a pretty selfless guy in that he's going to do whatever it takes to get to Phoenix. He's probably not an everyday guy, but could be a valuable player coming off the bench with big power. He's serviceable at third and first and is heading to the AFL to catch once a week as well.

 Q:  Josh from Phoenix asks:
Joey Votto - Lyle Overbay or Doug Mientkiewicz?
 A: 

Chris Kline: Well, he does wear No. 5, so I'm guessing he would say Pujols. And he has a similar stance and approach at the plate as his idol . . . but I think he's more the solid everyday guy that will hit for high average and some pop. He's also interesting to me in that he's a really big guy but has good speed for his size. Not saying he's the next Pujols--I'm crazy, but not THAT crazy.

 Q:  luke from des moines asks:
Does Tyler Lumsden project as a starter or reliever? What is his ceiling?
 A: 

Chris Kline: No. 3 starter.

 Q:  Mike Marinaro from Tampa, FL asks:
Talbot was on fire ever since the Rays got their hands on him. Do you think he has turned a corner in his development or just hit a hot streak over the second half of the season?
 A: 

Chris Kline: Consider the corner turned. He changed the grip on his slider and that played a huge part in the second half success, as well as a spike in velocity and being able to implement a better plan of attack through the help of Biscuits pitching coach Xavier Hernandez. Talbot is very, very interesting.

 Q:  michael from stony brook, ny asks:
the dodgers look like they have the next wave coming from jacksonville. who do you think will become the better major leaguer?
 A: 

Chris Kline: Between Craig Brazell and A.J. Zapp, the heart of the Suns order? Just kidding . . . I'm a big Kemp fan, and his arrival will be earlier than LaRoche's due to the labrum deal. But a lot of Dodgers officials feel like Elbert could help them as early as next season, so as a power lefty, he could have the highest ceiling. I just think Kemp could be an all-star caliber center fielder for a long time.

 Q:  Josh from Phoenix asks:
See anyone out there in the Southern League that can pull an Anibal Sanchez in '07?
 A: 

Chris Kline: You mean get traded and then become one of the better rookie pitchers in the big leagues? Let's wait for the next fire sale after the Marlins win the World Series in 2008 to see what happens . . . but for me, in terms of rookie pitchers in '07 having success, I'd have to bet safe and go Philip Hughes.

 Q:  Dean from Madison asks:
The 89 Cubs - talk about on the fringe. Tell us about the impact Johnny Marr will have on joining Modest Mouse. Does his style of play fit with Isaac Brock?
 A: 

Chris Kline: No doubt on the '89 Cubs, but it's what kicked off the iPod when I started two hours ago. I hadn't heard about Johnny Marr joining Modest Mouse. Not really a big Mouse fan, but based on what Marr did for Talking Heads back in the 80s, I might have to give them another chance.

 Q:  Bill Mitchell Fan from Plant City, FL asks:
Best name - Homer or Evan?
 A: 

Chris Kline: Now really, Plant City, aren't we all destined to be Bill Mitchell fans in life? Best name is a no-brainer--Homer. Longoria is just coincidental in terms of timing pop culture-wise with a toolsy actress on a bad TV show. Real question is, better tools: Eva or Evan? Discuss.

 Q:  John from Florida asks:
Thanks for the great job you do Chris. With McCann seemingly entrenched as the Braves catcher it would appear that a Salty trade would be feasable. What teams do you think would be the right fit for him? The talk has been that he be moved to 1st or LF, however the FO has done nothing to prepare him for such a move and have firmly told him he would remain behind the dish. Thoughts?
 A: 

Chris Kline: Trade, maybe, but he's certainly not at a peak value point in his career, so I doubt that will happen. And I really don't think they're going to move him anytime soon. He just showed too much ability behind the plate and it would be a shame to give up on such arm strength at catcher so early in his career--especially when he's showing aptitude.

 Q:  Elliott Johnson from Black Eyed Peas Concert asks:
While you are on the topic of music - Where is the love?
 A: 

Chris Kline: Here's some love, though I can't throw out too much considering you're allegedly at a Black Eyed Peas show. Seriously, though, Johnson was No. 21. Huge year and tends to get lost in such a deep system.

 Q:  Dave from Glendale asks:
DodgersDiamondbacks position prospects, which group do you take? LaRocheLoneyKempEthierMartin, or JacksonQuentinYoungGonzalezMontero?
 A: 

Chris Kline: OK, last question and I'm out. And what a question to go out on . . . To me, the best guys on the list are Young, Gonzalez, Kemp, Martin and Loney--and not in that order. So obviously the Dodgers have a slight edge. But oh yeah, you didn't mention a guy named Upton.

Chris Kline: Thanks for the great questions and hope everybody has a great weekend. Co-Editor-In-Chief Will Lingo will be in the house next on Tuesday to discuss an extremely deep Texas League, so stay hot until then. CK