League Top 20 Prospects

California League Top 20 Prospects Chat




Q:  Robert Goldberg from Lyndhurst, NJ asks:
Obviously, this year's talent doesn't come close to last year, but was this league the thinnest in the minor leagues in terms of depth of talent? Obviously, when there are players like Brignac, Gonzalez, Morales and Adenhart here, there is talent, but in looking at leagues like the Sally League, there appear to be big time prospects all the way up and down the league, while there are question marks in the top 10 here.
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: Hello all, welcome to the Cal League chat. We've got a lot to get to, so I'll try to move fast!

Aaron Fitt: The Cal League was definitely top-heavy this year, but the fact that it does have some legitimate impact guys at the top saves it from being a wreck. Just looking at the high Class A lists, I think the Cal list compares favorably to the Carolina League list. You have to remember also that it's hard to compare a 10-team league like the Cal League to a 16-team league like the Sally -- there are just a lot more prospects to choose from in the SAL. That league will always be deeper than the Cal League.

 Q:  Jaypers from IL asks:
Where would Lincecum and Longoria have ranked, had they qualified?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: It's hard to say exactly -- I knew all along that those guys would not qualify for this list, so I did not focus my questions on them. But they made enough of an impression that I would take both guys over Travis Buck at No. 6, and they might even rank 3 and 4 behind Gonzalez.

 Q:  Jaypers from IL asks:
Which guys just barely missed the list?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: Some guys who were among the final cuts: Shaun Cumberland and James Houser of Visalia, Matt Miller of Modesto.

 Q:  Fonz41 from Milwaukee asks:
How would you rank Brignac among Brandon Wood and the recent graduates to MLB (i.e., Hanley Ramirez, Tulowitzki, Drew)? Is he at their level?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: I don't think he's quite on their level yet, but there's plenty of burgeoning debate here in the office about Brignac v. Wood. I need to see what Brignac can do in a full season at AA before I put him ahead of Wood, because we just saw that Brandon Wood can handle AA and will keep on slugging his way to the majors. It remains to be seen if Brignac can stay at SS, but he's got a real chance to, and even if he moves he'll hit enough for a corner. But if he doesn't stick at shortstop, it would be hard to rank him on the same class as Han-Ram, Tulo and Drew.

 Q:  dclawed from georgia asks:
Aaron: Marcus Sanders: Fluke or for real?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: He had a brutal year, and I think serious doubts have surfaced about his arm strength and his bat. He's got great speed and instincts on the basepaths, but he's got no pop, and at this point he doesn't even have enough arm strength for second base. He wasn't healthy this year, but even at full strength I don't think there's any way his arm is strong enough for shortstop. He'll have a lot to prove next year.

 Q:  Shaun Cumberland from FLA asks:
Where does Cumberland rank on the prospect list? In an org filled with outfield prospects does he have a shot? He started out the year on fire especially with this power numbers and even though he struggled later in the year he still put up respectable overall numbers across the board.
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: Cumberland has enough tools that he's still got a chance to be an everyday outfielder. He's got legitimate power, a strong arm, and he's a fine defensive right fielder. He'll probably never hit for a high average, and his offensive approach and ability to make consistent contact need work. If he can't figure those things out, he could still find a niche as a fourth outfielder type -- one scout compared him to John Vander Wal.

 Q:  Jon from Peoria asks:
What type of prospect is Mike Stodolka now that he's a position player?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: A non-prospect, most likely. It's a nice story, and by all accounts he's a good guy that you have to pull for. But he lacks power and struggles against quality fastballs, and he was way too old for the league. Who knows, if he comes out gangbusters in AA next year, maybe he's got an outside chance, but it's a longshot.

 Q:  Mike from Richmond, VA asks:
Did Jonathan Barratt get Top 20 consideration? I know he doesn't have prototypical size, but it's hard to ignore his numbers, especially being a lefty. He would've led the league in ERA by 34 of a run, had he qualified.
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: Barratt did get some consideration. He's got an average fastball and decent off-speed stuff, giving him a chance to be a lefty reliever down the road. It's just hard to project the guy as a starter with his little build.

 Q:  Don from Rosemont, IL asks:
What type of power do you think Matt Tuiasosopo will hit for and what position will he ultimately play?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: He's a big strong kid, but he needs to do a better job handling inside pitches -- he doesn't do a good job turning on the ball right now. He's got enough raw strength for a corner, though, and I think he's got a shot at third base. He's certainly not a shortstop.

 Q:  tiffythetitan from Oakland, CA asks:
Did the San Jose Giants have any position player PROSPECTS?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: Eh, it was a pretty uninspiring group, really. I like Brian Horwitz ok -- that guy hits everywhere he goes -- but he doesn't profile as a regular. John Bowker looks like he could be a bat off the bench at the big league level, best case scenario. Sanders had a terrible year but is probably still the best position player prospect at San Jose, and as I mentioned earlier, there are lots of question marks with him.

 Q:  Nate from Chicago asks:
Does the fact that Brignac plays a premium position give him an edge over Gonzalez or is it simply ceiling and performance? Also, will Brignac be a top 10 guy when the list comes out and be rated ahead of Wood?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: Brignac and Gonzalez actually have awfully similar tools -- both plus hitters with plus power potential, average runners, strong arms, the tools to be good defenders. Brignac gets the edge for several reasons: he had a slightly better year than Gonzalez (particularly if you look at the K-BB ratios) and was actually three months younger than Gonzalez; he's got a shot to play a premium position, and even if he doesn't stick there he could be just as good a corner player as Gonzalez; and managers absolutely rave about his makeup, while Gonzalez has a few makeup questions. That's not to bury Gonzalez on his makeup -- the guy is only 20 years old, and he sounds like a good kid for the most part, just sometimes acts a bit arrogant, and he had a few issues with not hustling. It's just that when you compare them head-to-head, Briganc stands out for his work ethic and field makeup. He really sounds like a guy who gets it, and is going to make it.

 Q:  Glenn from St. Louis asks:
how can you possibly project Sean Rodriguez as a utility player in the bigs? he absolutely raked over two levels this season, and has the instincts and defensive skills to be at least adequate somewhere in the middle of the diamond. surely some team (though probably not the Angels) will find a place for him to play on an everyday basis if he mashes like he did this season, and is there really any reason to believe he won't?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: There are questions about Rodriguez' bat -- he only hit .250 in the Midwest League last year, and sure his numbers were good this year, but the Cal League is very generous to hitters. It's not like this is a can't-miss bat. He's definitely got some pop in his swing, but it doesn't sound like he's got enough pop to be an everyday third baseman, and his body profiles better at third than it does at short. Few scouts and managers think Rodriguez will be a good enough defender to play SS every day. Offensively, his swing has some length to it, and it's not a classic stance -- very upright, high hands. He's got quick enough wrists that he can certainly continue to hit at higher levels, I just am not convinced he will hit enough to be a regular. There's nothing wrong with being a super-utility player -- his versatility is an asset.

 Q:  Jake from Bartlett, IL asks:
Aaron, thanks for the chat. Does Carlos Gonzalez have a higher ceiling than Carlos Quentin? Also, at this point, is Gonzalez a better bet than Justin Upton to translate his considerable tools into production at the major league level? Thanks for taking my questions.
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: Hm, I'd probably take Gonzalez over Quentin in terms of pure upside, but Quentin's aptitude is part of what makes him such a good prospect. That's important. And I'm definitely not ready to bury Justin Upton. I think Gonzalez and Upton are both outstanding prospects. Upton was one of the most heavily scouted prep players ever going into the draft... nobody really doubted he could translate his tools into production. It was not a great debut, but if I had to bet my life on Gonzalez or Upton, I'd probably take Upton.

 Q:  John from Harrisonburg, VA asks:
Did Nick Pereira receive any consideration for the list, after his fantastic first half? What does his ceiling look like? Thanks.
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: He got just a little consideration, but not much. He's a max-effort guy with fringy stuff, although he is very driven and has a good feel for pitching, especially for a converted guy. His best pitch is his slider, but he relies too heavily upon it, at the expense of his 88-90 mph fastball and his changeup, which lags behind. Best-case scenario, No. 5 starter, but I think that might be too optimistic.

 Q:  Keen from San Francisco asks:
Just like the Sally league the Cal league is completely devoid of Giants prospects, given the little Giants recent success it is surpising. Was there any Giants to just miss the cut? If so what do you like about him? Is the Giants success more atrributed to talent or is it a testament to manager Lenn Sakata?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: Lenn Sakata is one of the best in the business. You can lay San Jose's success directly at his feet, because it was not a particularly talented bunch.

 Q:  David from Seattle asks:
Does mark lowe not qualify for this list? He may not be a first round pick but he tore through the cal league and everywhere else for that matter. He threw 17 23 scoreless innings in the majors and has an upper 90s fastball.
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: He did not qualify -- he had 13 appearances, and relievers need 20 to qualify in a full-season league. Had he qualified, he would probably have ranked No. 6, thanks to a lively mid-90s fastball and perhaps the best slider in the Cal League this year.

 Q:  Joshua from Tallahassee asks:
How close were Jereme Milons and Javier Brito to making the top 30? Is milons still seen as a top flight prospect and will either guy make the Dbacks top 30? thanks!
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: Neither was close to making this list, but both are a little bit intriguing. I've always been a Milons guy -- former football player with a nice tools package, including plus raw power. Just needs to continue refining his game. Both Milons and Brito were 23, a touch on the old side for the Cal League, but Brito really raked and showed pretty good plate discipline as well. He's a tough out with some pop, not a prototypical first baseman. He's got a chance as a late-bloomer.

 Q:  Mike Emeigh from piratefan1@nc.rr.com asks:
Hey Aaron: The only real question that I have about this list is the omission of Visalia's James Houser and Jonathan Barratt. I would have expected to see one or both somewhere toward the bottom of the top 20.
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: I addressed Barratt already, and as for Houser, his stuff was somewhat disappointing this year -- he showed a fringy fastball in the 86-88 range, touching 90, and his command tended to go through lapses. I'm not writing him off as a prospect -- he's still a big-bodied lefty with an average curveball -- but he'll need to get his velocity back up before he can be considered a great prospect.

 Q:  Tom from Mineola, NY asks:
Did Carlos Gonzalez really commit 26 errors this year??? Or is that a typo? That's an extraordinarily high number for a RF. If he really did commit 26 errors, is his future as a RF in doubt? I would think if someone made THAT many errors, he'd be moved to another position.
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: That caused me to do a double-take, myself, especially since nobody really ripped his defense to me. He's got the tools to be a fine defender, with arm strength, range, ok instincts, but my guess is he needs to work on his concentration. Perhaps some of those errors are a result of trying to do too much with his incredibly strong arm -- just speculation on my part, though.

 Q:  Mike from Lancaster, PA asks:
Why no mention of Chris Mason (Visalia)? The kid's a bulldog on the mound; tied for the league lead in wins and has a great pick-off move. Did managers take points away for tiring down the stretch?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: Mason keeps hitters off balance by moving the ball around and changing speeds, and he has a short, quick arm action but lacks projection. Mason has a tendency to leave the ball up in the zone, and he can let his emotions get to him. Once he gets rattled, things sometimes snowball for him. He profiles as a decent middle relief or setup man if he can harness his emotions.

 Q:  wily mo from los angeles asks:
So, what's the explanation for the substantial increase in Jose Arredondo's popularity with hitters and fans of offense after his promotion to AA? Could he not handle the thick air in Texas, or was he just bored with getting outs? Does his prospect status take a hit? Big or small? Off to the bullpen with him? Or is this a Texas League question.
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: That's probably more of a Texas League question, but I will say this: the guy's only been pitching since 2004. He had 86 innings in his career entering this season, and he pitched 90 in the Cal League alone this year before throwing 60 more in Double-A. I think you could excuse him if he got a little fatigued. I'm not sure that Texas League performance affects his prospect status... he ranks as high on this list as he does because of his lightning stuff, not his stats. He's still raw though, and has a lot to figure out. I think he'll probably end up in the bullpen anyway, but he could be a serious impact arm in the pen if he figures it out.

 Q:  Matt from Dekalb, IL asks:
Since it doesn't seem likely that Chase Headley will add enough power to his game to make him very ideal at third could the Padres try moving him to second and if so could his on base ability be enough to supplant the young and fairly solid Josh Barfield?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: No, I think they'll leave him at third for now and hope his power comes along. I'm skeptical, but he can do enough things well that he could certainly be a valuable bench guy. I don't think you could project him at second over Barfield -- his body type is really more suited for a corner position, he just hasn't shown the power you'd like to see. Who knows though -- power is usually the last thing to come.

 Q:  Brandi from Vermont asks:
What in the world are the Rockies going to do now that Jonathan Herrera is breaking out? Don't we have enough middle infield prospects already? He doesn't pitch, does he?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: Hey, you can never have too many quality shortstops - just ask the Angels. If Herrera has another season or two like this one as he moves up the ladder, the Rockies might be able to trade him for someone who can pitch. You certainly can't move the guy off shortstop if he can play the position. Develop him there and if he eventually forces your hand, worry about it then.

 Q:  Dan from Washington, DC asks:
How close were the most effective qualifying starter (Jonathan Barratt) and reliever (Brian Anderson) to making the top 20 list? What flaws in their games kept them off the list?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: I already addressed Barratt, and Anderson is another guy who was in that 20-30 range. Anderson competes very well and has a nice breaking ball - probably an average offering. But his fastball is fringy, 88-89 mph, and he profiles as a middle reliever at best.

 Q:  Jon Daniels from Arlington, Tx asks:
Any thoughts on little Danny Hererra? I'm thinking I can start pitching a new slogan to my fans: HD - DVD (Hurley, Danny, Danks, Volquez, Diamond)! Think it'll sell ticket?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: I don't know anything about selling tickets, but I know I'd pay to watch Danny Ray Herrera. The guy put up a 1.35 ERA --in the Cal League, of all places -- with a fastball in the low 80s that topped out at 85. I suppose that pitch looks quite a bit faster on the heels of a 55-61 mph screwball.

 Q:  Guy from Va Beach asks:
Where does Chris rahl rank. He did lead all the minors in hits and was tied for 3rd in doubles.
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: I had Rahl in that 20-30 range on this list. He's an aggressive hitter with good power to the gaps, decent speed and he plays a nice CF. He has very quick hands and good pitch recognition. He's undersized, and I'd like to see what he does outside the friendly confines of Lancaster.

 Q:  ttnorm from Connecticut asks:
No love for Chris Nowak?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: On the contrary, Chris Nowak got plenty of love -- also in that 20-30 range. He plays a very nice first base, and his inside-out swing dumps balls to the opposite field and the gaps. He's not a typical pull-power first baseman, and his lack of home run power (as a first baseman) is why he missed this list, but he knows how to hit.

 Q:  Peter Friberg from http:padresrundown.blogspot.com asks:
Romos over Headley? I hear "Bill Meuller" as a comp for Headley... I fear Ramos isn't going to miss anywhere near bats to be effective (160H in 141 IP - ouch!)...
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: You could go either way on that one, and if I were redoing this list today I might be inclined to slide Headley and Fernando Perez up a few notches. You're right, Ramos didn't miss too many bats this year, but he's got a nice repertoire and an easy delivery, and he's never going to be a strikeout pitcher anyway. He could be an innnigs-eater though, either in the back of a rotation (maybe even middle of a rotation, if things break right) or in the bullpen. I think a Bill Mueller comp is pretty good for Headley.

 Q:  Toby from Confused asks:
You'd take Gonzalez over Quentin on upside when they both play the outfield, and could both be All-Stars, while Quentin is a lot closer? Quentin hit .289.424.487 in 85 games at AAA before hitting .253.342.530 with AZ. Across MLB and AAA he combined for 43 2B and 18 HR. Gonzalez, in Lancaster and Tennessee, but mostly Lancaster, hit .289.348.543 with 41 doubles and 23 HR. Just for fun, in 65 games in Lancaster in 2004, Quentin hit .310.427.522. What does Gonzalez have that Quentin doesn't? It looks like you're taking the younger guy just cause be's younger.
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: I said I'd take Gonzalez on pure upside only -- if both players reach their ceilings, I think Gonzalez has the higher ceiling. The fact that Quentin has put up numbers at higher levels bodes well for him -- indicates he's got a better chance to reach his ceiling. I would take Quentin over Gonzalez as an overall prospect, partly because he's more advanced and partly because of his aptitide. But as far as upside, Gonzalez is only 20 years old, and he has all five tools. I like his overall tools package slightly more than Quentin's -- slightly better runner, stronger arm, could end up with just as much or more power and hitting ability.

 Q:  Jaypers from IL asks:
Wimberly is conspicuously absent. Did he not have enough ABs to qualify, and if so, where would he have placed?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: Wimberly did qualify -- he ranked in the 20-30 range as well. (I've probably hit on all the 20-30 guys by now.) I like him, a real high-energy guy at the top of a lineup with tons of speed, but he's undersized and might not hit enough to be a big leaguer. He's definitely got a chance though -- I do like him.

 Q:  Mike from Boston asks:
Did Billy Buckner come close to qualifying? I know tools play an important role in these lists, but he had a decent season in High Desert, a pitcher's nightmare. He also has a very good curve. Could you elaborate? Thanks.
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: You pretty much nailed it -- his stuff isn't great, and his curveball is his best pitch. He's got a strong, durable frame and decent pitchability. He needs to mature a bit, and he needs to do a better job throwing strikes. Chance to be a back of the rotation starter.

 Q:  Fonz41 from Milwaukee asks:
What should I make of Richie Robnett?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: Good tools, hasn't shown ability to make consistent contact or exercise any pitch selection. Has the tools to be a regular OF, but seems like a boom-or-bust type. Long way to go yet.

 Q:  Landon from Dallas asks:
Eric Hurley a starter or relievercloser?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: I like him as a starter still, but he does need to work on his changeup.

 Q:  Brett from Dallas, TX asks:
Did Emerson Frostad receive any support, and does he have a shot as a catcher?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: Couple more quick Rangers questions. Frostad showed an ability to make adjustments at the plate, particularly utilizing the left-center field gap instead of always trying to pull the ball. He remains a work in progress behind the plate, learning to call a game, and he's improving his throwing accuracy. He never let his defense affect his offense.

 Q:  Zack from Austin asks:
What are you thoughts on Ben Harrison? Might he be the future left fielder in Arlington?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: I think he's got a chance for that, yes. He's got some legitimate power and a good major league body. My instinct is probably more like a fourth outfielder, but certainly has a chance to be a regular.

 Q:  Philly Guy from West Philadelphia, Pa asks:
Randy's or Papa John's?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: Papa John's.

 Q:  Fonz41 from Milwaukee asks:
Does Greg Smith's ranking reflect a feeling that he can be a 34 on a good MLB team, or is he viewed as "just another lefty" who can carve out a MLB career on the basis of his handedness?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: His stuff is not overwhelming, but it's solid. He's definitely got a nice chance to be a mid-rotation starter.

 Q:  Mike from Riverside, CA asks:
Was there any talk about LHP Robert Rohrbaugh? He did a pretty solid job once he earned a AA promotion. He isn't a hard thrower, but is a strike-throwing machine who does a nice job of moving the ball around and challenging hitters. Also, I'm guessing that LH reliever Eric O'Flaherty wasn't around long enough to warrant consideration?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: Rohrbaugh is a groundball pitcher with a good downward angle and deception - not great stuff, but could be a reliever in big leagues. O'Flaherty did not qualify.

 Q:  Anthony from MI asks:
Does Adenhart project as a #1 or #2 starter and what is his ETA to LAA?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: Yeah, he's a legitimate front-of-the-rotation kind of arm with terrific feel for pitching. I'd say ETA late 2007early 2008.

 Q:  Dan from Fayetteville, AR asks:
I have heard speculation that Morales will end up in the bullpen...What do you think?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: Everyone in the Cal League seems to think he profiles as a starter, but I could see why you'd maybe think he'd be an effective closer, with that devastating two-pitch mix. Thing is, he's got a decent changeup too, so if he can ever get his command down, he could be a bona fide No. 1 starter, thanks to a plus-plus fastball and plus-plus breaking ball and average change.

 Q:  Jaypers from IL asks:
Would you rank Hurley ahead of the DVD trio at this point?
 A: 

Aaron Fitt: You'll just have to wait for my Rangers list -- not going to tip my hand!

Aaron Fitt: That's it for today everyone. Thanks for all the great questions, as always -- it always amazes me how educated and insightful our readership is. I look forward to my Rangers and Nationals chats coming up later this fall.

Aaron Fitt: Be sure to swing by tomorrow afternoon for Chris Kline's Carolina League chat.