League Top 20 Prospects

Arizona League Top 20 Prospects Chat




 Q:  Matt from Houston asks:
Did Chris Huseby qualify for this list or was he an inning or so inelegible? Had he qualified, where would he have ranked if he would have ranked in it at all?
 A: 

John Manuel: Sorry for the late start, had a great college phone call to do. Let's rev up some iTunes and crank out some AZL.

John Manuel: Huseby didn't quite qualify, needed 20 innings. But he showed the arm strength that prompted the Cubs to give him all that money . . . he would have cracked the Top 10 had he qualified, because the league had few projectable, power arms like his.

 Q:  Peter Friberg from http:padresrundown.blogspot.com asks:
Vandel had a poor beginning in Eugene, and a poor stint as a reliever in the AZL, but he put up a 2-run (1 earned) 16 IP finish to his AZL season in 3 starts (his only AZL starts of the year). I know he's not a top-20 guy, but what do you think of him?
 A: 

John Manuel: No one was too thrilled with Vandel, who's pretty young to be so crafty, because his stuff's a bit short. If he gets stronger and has better stuff down the line to go with his pitchability, there might be something there.

 Q:  John from Atlanta asks:
What did league observers think of Travis Schlichting, another Angels pitching convert?
 A: 

John Manuel: John, Schlichting wasn't throwing nearly as hard as some other converts you hear about, he was more around the 90 mph range, so he wouldn't have been a factor in the top 20.

 Q:  Ryan from Seattle asks:
No Alex Liddi? He seems to have a good bat for a 17 year old from Italy with good all-around athleticism. His advanced game for a 17 year old out of Europe are pretty impressive. What kept him off the list?
 A: 

John Manuel: Liddi had a nice debut and was right on the cusp of the 20. It sounds like his game is advanced for a European, but not necessarily for the AZL. He does have some tools though, arm strength (upper 80s off the mound in Italy, I'm told), and he has some power, but it sounds like his swing's a bit long, and that's going to be an issue as he faces more experienced pitching. Definitely a guy who could have made the list; the AZL is really a crap-shoot, to be honest.

 Q:  Peter Friberg from http:padresrundown.blogspot.com asks:
Are Conteras' age issues legitimate? In post 911 players coming over with falty identies have been few and far between...
 A: 

John Manuel: Peter gets some free ads, though I guess you paid for it, since you are a subscriber . . . I didn't hear any age concerns with Rayner Contreras; I did with Felix Carrasco, but people still liked him. I think you read that wrong. Contreras actually got a lot of support, though he sounds like more of a utility guy down the line. Carrasco's power gave him the edge, and I know Randy Smith was very excited about him talking international prospects with him this summer.

 Q:  dice from tx asks:
do you think that van stratten has alot projectability? Will he fill out and gain more power as the years come?
 A: 

John Manuel: It actually doesn't sound like projectability is something to look to Van Stratten to. He's physical now, and he was described as stockky to me by his own manager, which I don't think of when I see 6-1, 185 as the listed size. He runs well though and has present strength. Frankly, he sounded like a fourth outfielder, but why put limits on a guy in the AZL?

 Q:  James from NIU asks:
Hank Conger is a hitter with very good power and bat speed, he also has the potential to be aplus defender, is he more like Joe Mauer or Ivan Rodriguez? How does he compare to other 1st round catchers from previous drafts?
 A: 

John Manuel: Conger was one of my favorite players from the last draft. I don't think he has the physical talent those two players have; I don't know that he's a premium athlete like those guys. Those guys are two of the top 5 catchers of all time (yeah, I'm premature on Mauer, but I have faith). Conger has to work to be a better catcher, it's not natural to him like it was for them. That said, no one doubts he'll do the work and he has the tools. His makeup is as good as I've encountered covering players, and he's a switch-hitting catcher with power. Jason Varitek is a better comp than Mauer or I-Rod.

 Q:  JH from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic asks:
How is the Brewers' strategy of focusing on top-dollar Latin American talent and bypassing the academy system working out for them? The top two Dominican talents on their AZL squad, Pascual and Peralta, sure didn't have impressive seasons statistically. Is there any concern that the aggressive assignments along with the culture shock of moving to the states at 17 without speaking the language will stunt these players' development?
 A: 

John Manuel: Those two pitchers definitely struggled this year, but judging how the system of not having a DSL team is working can't be judged on how a pair of 17-year-olds performed in the AZL in their pro debut,j at least it can't be judged from afar. You'd have to know how those players responded to their struggles, and that's something I wasn't able to find out. I do know the lack of a DSL team was a consideration when the Brewers signed these players; they signed them because they thought they were the kind of players who could debut in the U.S., and perhaps they over-estimated that aspect of these two players.

 Q:  mark h from altoona asks:
could you compare jeffress to mark rogers. also how likely is it jeffress remains a starter. thanks
 A: 

John Manuel: Good question . . . Rogers is bigger, but they seem pretty similar in terms of being fast-twitch athletes who can do things us mortals cannot. Jeffress was a very good high school basketball player, for example, and Rogers was a very good soccer and hockey player. Competitiveness is another thing they both seem to have in common. Obviously I wasn't too concerned by Jeffress' rough finish and 5.88 ERA, so I guess Jeffress and Rogers have that in common too, big ERAs and big fastballs. I have stated before, I'm a huge Rogers believer, and I know our high school guru, Alan Matthews, has seen Jeffress several times and likes him a lot. He has said Jeffress' breaking ball is inconsistent, so the bullpen's a possibility, but let's give the guy a full season before we start even thinking about that, OK?

 Q:  Benny from Ohio asks:
I heard the giants were really high on Orlando Yntema. Any word on him.
 A: 

John Manuel: Well, it sounds like they have several power arms they liked in the AZL. Yntema was one who threw in the 90s. The scouting reports on him were that he had less breaking ball than others, such as Cabeza, who admittedly is more polished and older. A lot of times, the names run together to the managers and the scouts in the AZL, not to mention to the players.

 Q:  Elliot Legow from Youngstown OH asks:
I read in BA that there's a Hawaii league this winter. What level of prospects will be playing there? Are rosters available?
 A: 

John Manuel: There is; it starts in two weeks. I just received e-mail yesterday from the league that the rosters are not yet official, and as soon as they release them, we'll be posting them. We intend to cover HWB like we do the AFL, though no one has drawn the assignment of traveling there to see games, like we do for the AFL. Pity. I am excited to see Lenn Sakata managing out there, and if Vegas will put odds on it, I'll bet on his team to win the league.

 Q:  Chuck from Conn asks:
What is your outlook on Jamie D'Antona? Do you think he is starting to up his stock once again after putting up good #'s in '06? Also, becoming more versatile moving from 3B1B to C.
 A: 

John Manuel: Chuck, I'll answer this for everyone else to realize this chat is not about the Arizona FALL League, but about the Arizona ROOKIE League. Vast, vast difference.

John Manuel: As for Jamie D'Antona, I was just talking about him the other day so I'll take a quick detour to throw out a crazy comp: Phil Nevin. It took a move to C to wake Nevin up, and D'Antona woke up this year and started tapping into his talent after working on catching last fall and this spring. He might have been a catcher long ago but had knee problems as a high school player. I've always associated D'Antona with bat speed, plus raw power and arm strength. I believe he can be more than a utility guy, that he can be a poor man's Phil Nevin.

 Q:  Mike from Boston asks:
Where would Brandon Morrow and Chris Tillman have ranked had they qualified?
 A: 

John Manuel: Very, very high. I think you can look at this list and figure out the talent in the AZL was modest; there's a 6-foot RHP who didn't dominate at No. 10, a 5.88 ERA at No. 2 . . . it wasn't slim pickin's but it wasn't a loaded league either. Morrow and Tillman would have both been top 5, and Morrow actually would have ranked second. Tillman vs. Jeffress is tough, Tillman obviously worked more off his fastball in the AZL than he did this spring, which was a big problem scouts had with him; he threw a lot of split-fingers for a high school kid with a 94 mph fastball. There's a lot to like with Tillman, tall frame, some pitchability, he probably would have been No. 4 behind Morrow and Jeffress.

 Q:  Mike from Boston asks:
What about Bianchi, where would he have been had he had the required number of at-bats?
 A: 

John Manuel: Another one who almost qualified but didn't . . . while I like Cedric Hunter, here's another prospect who would have ranked ahead of him had he been eligible. Bianchi was clearly better than any middle infielder in the AZL, but then he should have been.

 Q:  Phil from Maryland asks:
Does Hunter project as a top of the order hitter, or will he develop the power to be more of a middle of the lineup type guy?
 A: 

John Manuel: Thought i'd get more Cedric Hunter questions, but here's one. It's kind of tough to say; I don't think you can go by AZL stats. Some teams play in MLB stadiums, others on dark side fields that aren't quite in the same shape, and there are no fans . . . it's just difficult to try to assess talent there by performance. Hunter squares up the ball, but his swing path and approach are more line-drive than power oriented. Best-case scenario may be a Mike Greenwell-Rusty Greer type, maybe below-average HR power for an OF corner offset by high OBPs and heady play. Getting a manager to nitpick and say something negative about Cedric Hunter was difficult. He earned a lot of respect.

 Q:  Steve from DeKalb, IL asks:
What rookie league (not including SS-A) was the most talented this year?
 A: 

John Manuel: Not to offend Matt Eddy, but looking at the lists, I'd have to say Pioneer League, but that's usually the case. Several organizations use the Pioneer as their "advanced Rookie" instead of a short-season team. Plus, Missoula (Diamondbacks), which is not one of those teams, had some interesting albeit older arms I like, such as Osbek Castillo and Hector Ambriz, and Billings had nice college players such as Chris Valaika and Red Turner to go with the league's young talent at teams like Ogden and Orem and Casper. Good league.

 Q:  Bruce from Salem, OR asks:
I know he didn't get many innings in Arizona, but what is the assessment of Trevor Cahill, the A's top draft pick this year?
 A: 

John Manuel: Funny, I just talked to Cahill's dad this morning. He could be monitoring this chat, in fact, as he just subscribed today . . . I don't think he thought the person who answered the phone would know most of his son's story from this year, but he got lucky. Anyway, Cahill had the highest ceiling on the A's, he didn't qualify but once he adjusted to the environment, he got some traction and combined on a no-hitter. He's still just tapping into his talent, and he sounds like a smart, athletic kid who is starting to figure out how good he can be. I'd be excited about both of the A's top HS picks, Cahill and Matt Sulentic, who had a great debut in the NWL.

 Q:  Adam from Davis, Ca asks:
Do rookie ball players usually improve when they get promoted to another level just because they don't have to go through the rigors of hanging out in 100+ degree heat day in and out?
 A: 

John Manuel: Adam, that's a good question, always good to hear form you. My experience talking to players has been that it is very hard to perform in complex-league conditions, if you are used to more. Big-time HS kids often have trouble adjusting; not to spoil Alan Matthews' GCL chat, but that was what we heard re: Kyle Drabek's struggles in the GCL. I think it's less of an issue for Latin American players, who have so much else to worry about (learning the language, being hundreds or thousands of miles from home at such a young age, etc.) to worry about how many fans are in the stands or how hot it is. But players I've talked to over the years have indicated that yes, they get a lot more adrenaline flowing once they leave the complex leagues.

 Q:  tiffythetitan from Oakland, CA asks:
Did the Giants have any promising position players in the league besides Schoop who was repeating the league?
 A: 

John Manuel: They did; Rich Janeway has a polished bat and really responded after being relegated to the AZL for a second straight season due to a glut of 1Bs in the low minors for the Giants. He'd be a better prospect with more power but who wouldn't? The guy can hit and figures to compete for a full-season job next spring. James Simmons and Elio Sarmiento also got some mention, and while he's a college guy in a complex league, Matt Downs showed some tools and good makeup. All those are guys to watch for Giants fans, it would seem.

 Q:  Mario66 from Toronto asks:
Is Anthony Vavarro back to where he was at St. John's, and does he project as at least a solid back of the rotation type guy (assuming continued health)?
 A: 

John Manuel: I don't know what he projects to be anymore; it's impossible to evaluate that at this time. I'm not trying to be difficult, but he threw 11 innings in his first games since May 2005, and he was shut down for a time when he first came back from TJ and his subsequent rehab. How can a player be evaluated on that body of work? I'll tell you what I learned: his fastball wasn't quite back to the 92-94 mph range he threw in college. His curveball, which was basically a snapdragon before, showed some signs. But his job in the AZL was just to get on the mound and build arm strength, build some confidence, not show his full repertoire. So evaluating his future based on that brief, rehab look, I don't think I'd be very fair to Anthony Varvaro if I did that.

 Q:  Derrik from Texas asks:
Thanks for the chat John. And I know you are a huge fan of Rogers, butI still think he is behind Inman:)... Did any of the brewers later picks make name for themselves?
 A: 

John Manuel: I love Will Inman. Brewers fans are lucky to have them both. Evan Anundsen got some run, as did Shane (alias Charles) Hill, for having live arms and raw stuff. I don't know if the Brewers' AZL park had Questec installed or what but those guys didn't throw a lot of strikes; that was what stuck out to managers I talked to, that and Jeffress reaching triple digits.

 Q:  Paul from Kansas City asks:
Brent Fisher repeated the league and dominated, then also pitched well when moved up at the end of the season. What accounts for his incredible strikeout rate (i.e., what's his stuff like)? And the Royals had a nice showing - does this speak well to Ladnier's draft strategy?
 A: 

John Manuel: Love Brent Fisher; he was in our Top 30 last year, and he's got a lot going for him. Deceptive fastball, solid velocity, improved changeup, and a curveball that can be a plus pitch. He also has a reputation as a good competitor and good kid who takes to instruction well, and he will move a lot quicker in the future. The Royals did have a nice showing, they had a lot of speed, which is a tool you can work with, and a team with some younger players surrounded with older guys who put those younger players in position to succeed. The Royals and Padres had the most talented teams in the league, with the Mariners and Angels also right up there.