New Draft Rules Make Callis' Draft A Tough Task
CHICAGO—Scouting directors told me all spring that the new draft rules made their jobs more difficult than ever. The new Collective Bargaining Agreement prescribes strict budgets for the first 10 rounds and severe draft-pick penalties for teams that exceed them by more than 5 percent.
I now feel their pain. I've conducted a mock top-10-rounds draft since 2003, and I take pride in trying to make good selections. I wince when someone brings up my choice of Jon Zeringue with the hypothetical 21st overall pick in 2004, though I can counter with Jason Heyward and Will Middlebrooks from my pretend 2007 draft haul.
My approach always has been simple: Grab the best guy on my board with my first selection and be aggressive. This year, I couldn't do that.
Randomly assigned the 22nd spot in the draft rotation and one sandwich pick, I just missed out on two of BA's top dozen prospects: Texas A&M righthander Michael Wacha (19th, Cardinals) and Duke righty Marcus Stroman (22nd, Blue Jays). At No. 23 overall, that led me to the next player on our list, Florida high school righty Lance McCullers Jr.
A mid-90s fastball, a power slider and big league bloodlines all work for me. But what doesn't is McCullers' perceived asking price, which could eat up more than half of my $4.96 million assigned bonus pool. Under the new rules, if I take McCullers, I severely limit what I can do afterward.
So I passed on McCullers and took Oklahoma high school righthander Ty Hensley (30th, Yankees). He's an athletic 6-foot-5, 220-pounder with a pair of weapons in his 92-97 mph fastball and a hard curveball. Though that's a nice package, he wasn't my first choice.
Loading Up On Bats
My best-talent-available philosophy led me to hitters with my next four selections. At No. 53, I knew I'd have a hard time signing Mississippi high school outfielder Anthony Alford (third round, Blue Jays) and Florida prep righty Walker Weickel (sandwich, Padres), so I opted for Tanner Rahier (second, Cardinals). A California high school shortstop, Rahier probably has to move to second or third base but has the bat for it, along with quality makeup.
When I chose again at No. 87 in the second round, Alford was still available, but I didn't believe I can buy him away from a Southern Miss football scholarship. Next on the board were two more expensive high schoolers, North Carolina righthander Ty Buttrey (fourth, Red Sox) and Oregon third baseman/righthander Carson Kelly (second, Cardinals). I take the plunge with Kelly, whose power and arm profile well at the hot corner.
With a 10-round budget well below the MLB average of $6.33 million, I'm essentially out on any more high schoolers or tough signs. That doesn't mean I can't find some talent, and I'm pleased with the college outfielders I land in rounds three and four.
Brandon Thomas (fourth, Pirates) played left field at Georgia Tech in deference to speedster Kyle Wren, but I think he can play center. I like the body (6-foot-3, 205 pounds), the plus speed and the possibility of average power from both sides of the plate. Texas-Arlington's Preston Beck (fifth, Rangers) gives me a right fielder who can hit for power and average while also providing average speed and plus arm strength.
I was pleasantly surprised to find St. Edward's (Texas) righthander Stephen Johnson (sixth, Giants) available in the fifth round. He may be an NCAA Division II reliever who was diagnosed with a partial elbow tear in high school, but he regularly pitched at 98 mph and peaked at 101 this spring.
Virginia high school Damion Carroll (sixth, Rays) should be signable through the sixth round, so I went the prep route one more time and took him there. While he's raw, he's a 6-foot-4, 205-pounder who can run his fastball up to 95 mph and draws comparisons to a young Lee Smith.
Michigan State third baseman Torsten Boss (eighth, Orioles) gives me good value as a quality college bat in the seventh round. He has solid tools across the board and I think he'll hit enough, even if he has to move to the outfield.
I hadn't drafted a lefthander yet, so I rectified that in the eighth round with Daniel Stumpf (ninth, Royals), named most outstanding pitcher at the Junior College World Series after leading San Jacinto (Texas) JC to a second-place finish. He has nice run on an 88-91 mph fastball that touches 94, an average changeup and good mound savvy.
To ensure that I could sign all these guys, I looked for deep discounts with college seniors with my final two selections. Jacksonville State first baseman Ben Waldrip (10th, Rockies) offers big lefthander power and feel for hitting. Trinity (Texas) righthander Ben Klimesh (15th, Reds) used his 90-95 mph fastball to lead NCAA Division III in wins (13) and strikeouts (154 in 111 innings) this spring.
I like my draft. I also liked the old draft rules better than the new ones.
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PrintCHICAGO—Scouting directors told me all spring that the new draft rules made their jobs more difficult than ever. The new Collective Bargaining Agreement prescribes strict budgets for the first 10 rounds and severe draft-pick penalties for teams that exceed them by more than 5 percent.
I now feel their pain. I've conducted a mock top-10-rounds draft since 2003, and I take pride in trying to make good selections. I wince when someone brings up my choice of Jon Zeringue with the hypothetical 21st overall pick in 2004, though I can counter with Jason Heyward and Will Middlebrooks from my pretend 2007 draft haul.My approach always has been simple: Grab the best guy on my board with my first selection and be aggressive. This year, I couldn't do that.
Randomly assigned the 22nd spot in the draft rotation and one sandwich pick, I just missed out on two of BA's top dozen prospects: Texas A&M righthander Michael Wacha (19th, Cardinals) and Duke righty Marcus Stroman (22nd, Blue Jays). At No. 23 overall, that led me to the next player on our list, Florida high school righty Lance McCullers Jr.
A mid-90s fastball, a power slider and big league bloodlines all work for me. But what doesn't is McCullers' perceived asking price, which could eat up more than half of my $4.96 million assigned bonus pool. Under the new rules, if I take McCullers, I severely limit what I can do afterward.
So I passed on McCullers and took Oklahoma high school righthander Ty Hensley (30th, Yankees). He's an athletic 6-foot-5, 220-pounder with a pair of weapons in his 92-97 mph fastball and a hard curveball. Though that's a nice package, he wasn't my first choice.
Loading Up On Bats
My best-talent-available philosophy led me to hitters with my next four selections. At No. 53, I knew I'd have a hard time signing Mississippi high school outfielder Anthony Alford (third round, Blue Jays) and Florida prep righty Walker Weickel (sandwich, Padres), so I opted for Tanner Rahier (second, Cardinals). A California high school shortstop, Rahier probably has to move to second or third base but has the bat for it, along with quality makeup.
When I chose again at No. 87 in the second round, Alford was still available, but I didn't believe I can buy him away from a Southern Miss football scholarship. Next on the board were two more expensive high schoolers, North Carolina righthander Ty Buttrey (fourth, Red Sox) and Oregon third baseman/righthander Carson Kelly (second, Cardinals). I take the plunge with Kelly, whose power and arm profile well at the hot corner.
With a 10-round budget well below the MLB average of $6.33 million, I'm essentially out on any more high schoolers or tough signs. That doesn't mean I can't find some talent, and I'm pleased with the college outfielders I land in rounds three and four.
Brandon Thomas (fourth, Pirates) played left field at Georgia Tech in deference to speedster Kyle Wren, but I think he can play center. I like the body (6-foot-3, 205 pounds), the plus speed and the possibility of average power from both sides of the plate. Texas-Arlington's Preston Beck (fifth, Rangers) gives me a right fielder who can hit for power and average while also providing average speed and plus arm strength.
I was pleasantly surprised to find St. Edward's (Texas) righthander Stephen Johnson (sixth, Giants) available in the fifth round. He may be an NCAA Division II reliever who was diagnosed with a partial elbow tear in high school, but he regularly pitched at 98 mph and peaked at 101 this spring.
Virginia high school Damion Carroll (sixth, Rays) should be signable through the sixth round, so I went the prep route one more time and took him there. While he's raw, he's a 6-foot-4, 205-pounder who can run his fastball up to 95 mph and draws comparisons to a young Lee Smith.
Michigan State third baseman Torsten Boss (eighth, Orioles) gives me good value as a quality college bat in the seventh round. He has solid tools across the board and I think he'll hit enough, even if he has to move to the outfield.
I hadn't drafted a lefthander yet, so I rectified that in the eighth round with Daniel Stumpf (ninth, Royals), named most outstanding pitcher at the Junior College World Series after leading San Jacinto (Texas) JC to a second-place finish. He has nice run on an 88-91 mph fastball that touches 94, an average changeup and good mound savvy.
To ensure that I could sign all these guys, I looked for deep discounts with college seniors with my final two selections. Jacksonville State first baseman Ben Waldrip (10th, Rockies) offers big lefthander power and feel for hitting. Trinity (Texas) righthander Ben Klimesh (15th, Reds) used his 90-95 mph fastball to lead NCAA Division III in wins (13) and strikeouts (154 in 111 innings) this spring.
I like my draft. I also liked the old draft rules better than the new ones.
Past picks from Jim Callis' hypothetical drafts:
| 2011 Hypothetical Draft (Picking 10th Each Round) | ||
| Round | Player, Pos, School | Real Life Draft |
| 1st | Taylor Jungmann, rhp, Texas | Mil, 1st |
| Supp. 1st | Daniel Norris, lhp, HS/Tennessee | Tor, 2nd |
| 2nd | Andrew Susac, c, Oregon State | SF, 2nd |
| 3rd | Aaron Westlake, 1b, Vanderbilt | Det, 3rd |
| 4th | Tyler Marlette, c, HS/Florida | Sea, 5th |
| 5th | Brandon Loy, ss, Texas | Det 5th |
| 6th | Charlie Lowell, lhp, Wichita State | Fla, 6th |
| 7th | Senquez Golson, of, HS/Mississippi | Bos, 8th |
| 8th | Burch Smith, rhp, Oklahoma | SD, 14th |
| 9th | Colton Murray, rhp, Kansas State | Phi, 13th |
| 10th | Lance Jeffries, of, HS/Missouri | StL, 10th |
| Note: Supplemental first-rounder was 44th overall choice. | ||
| 2010 Hypothetical Draft (Picking 22nd Each Round) | ||
| Round | Player, Pos, School | Real Life Draft |
| 1st | Zack Cox, 3b, Arkansas | StL, 1st |
| Supp. 1st | Ryan LaMarre, of, Michigan | Cin, 2nd |
| 2nd | Chad Bettis, rhp, Texas Tech | Col, 2nd |
| 3rd | Garin Cecchini, 3b, HS/Louisiana | Bos, 4th |
| 4th | Drew Cisco, rhp, HS/South Carolina | Cin, 6th |
| 5th | Kendrick Perkins, of, HS/Texas | Bos, 6th |
| 6th | Ben Wells, rhp, HS/Arkansas | ChC, 7th |
| 7th | Tyler Green, rhp, HS/Texas | Ari, 8th |
| 8th | Tyler Holt, of, Florida State | Cle, 10th |
| 9th | Tyler Burgoon, rhp, Michigan | Sea, 10th |
| 10th | Josh Richmond, of, Louisville | Tex, 12th |
| Note: Supplemental first-rounder was 45th overall choice. | ||
| 2009 Hypothetical Draft (Picking 15th Each Round) | ||
| Round | Player, Pos, School | Real Life Draft |
| 1st | Shelby Miller, rhp, HS/Texas | StL, 1st |
| Supp. 1st | Everett Williams, of, HS/Texas | SD, 2nd |
| 2nd | Garrett Gould, rhp, HS/Kansas | LAD, 2nd |
| 3rd | Max Stassi, c, HS/California | Oak, 4th |
| 4th | Angelo Songco, of, Loyola Marymount | LAD, 4th |
| 5th | Ryan Schimpf, 2b, Louisiana State | Tor, 5th |
| 6th | Josh Fellhauer, of, Cal State Fullerton | Cin, 7th |
| 7th | Ryan Buch, rhp, Monmouth | CWS, 8th |
| 8th | Jabari Blash, of, Miami Dade CC | Tex, 9th |
| 9th | Del Howell, lhp, Alabama | Mil, 15th |
| 10th | Neil Medchill, of, Oklahoma State | NYY, 11th |
| Note: Supplemental first-rounder was 41st overall choice. | ||
| 2008 Hypothetical Draft (Picking 18th Each Round) | ||
| Round | Player, Pos, School | Real Life Draft |
| 1st | Christian Friedrich, lhp, Eastern Kentucky | Col, 1st |
| Supp. 1st | Brett DeVall, lhp, HS/Florida | Atl, supp. 1st |
| 2nd | Dennis Raben, of, Miami | Sea, 2nd |
| 3rd | Blake Tekotte, of, Miami | SD, 3rd |
| 4th | Pete Hissey, of, HS/Pennsylvania | Bos, 4th |
| 5th | Justin Parker, ss, Wright State | Ari, 6th |
| 6th | Brett Hunter, rhp, Pepperdine | Oak, 7th |
| 7th | Tim Federowicz, c, North Carolina | Bos, 7th |
| 8th | Gabe Jacobo, 3b, Sacramento State | LAA, 10th |
| 9th | Justin LaTempa, rhp, Golden West (Calif.) JC | Ari, 22nd |
| 10th | Mikie Mahtook, of, HS/Louisiana | Fla, 39th |
| Note: Supplemental first-rounder was 40th overall choice. | ||
| 2007 Hypothetical Draft (Picking 11th Each Round) | ||
| Round | Player, Pos, School | Real Life Draft |
| 1st | Jason Heyward, of, HS/Georgia | Atl, 1st |
| Supp. 1st | Justin Jackson, ss, HS/North Carolina | Tor, supp. 1st |
| 2nd | Nevin Griffith, rhp, HS/Florida | CWS, 2nd |
| 3rd | Sam Demel, rhp, Texas Christian | Oak, 3rd |
| 4th | T.J. McFarland, lhp, HS/Illinois | Cle, 4th |
| 5th | Will Middlebrooks, 3b/rhp, HS/Texas | Bos, 5th |
| 6th | Matt Angle, of, Ohio State | Bal, 7th |
| 7th | Tim Smith, of, Arizona State | Tex, 7th |
| 8th | Colby Shreve, rhp, CC of Southern Nevada | Atl, 8th |
| 9th | Kade Koewen, of, Louisiana State-Eunice JC | Bos, 9th |
| 10th | Dan Rohlfing, c, HS/Missouri | Min, 14th |
| Note: Supplemental first-rounder was 41st overall choice. | ||
| 2006 Hypothetical Draft (Picking 19th Each Round) | ||
| Round | Player, Pos, School | Real Life Draft |
| 1st | Brett Sinkbeil, rhp, Missouri State | Fla, 1st |
| 2nd | Wes Hodges, 3b, Georgia Tech | Cle, 2nd |
| 3rd | Matt Sulentic, of, HS/Texas | Oak, 3rd |
| 4th | Ryan Morris, lhp, HS/North Carolina | Cle, 4th |
| 5th | Chris Archer, rhp, HS/North Carolina | Cle, 5th |
| 6th | Zach Daeges, of, Creighton | Bos, 6th |
| 7th | Luke Gorsett, of, Nebraska | StL, 7th |
| 8th | Kent Gerst, of, HS/Missouri | CWS, 8th |
| 9th | Kyle Gibson, rhp, HS/Indiana | Phi, 36th |
| 10th | Justin Woodall, lhp/of, HS/Mississippi | NYM, 19th |
| 2005 Hypothetical Draft (Picking 17th Each Round) | ||
| Round | Player, Pos, School | Real Life Draft |
| 1st | Luke Hochevar, rhp, Tennessee | LA, supp. 1st |
| Supp. 1st | Michael Bowden, rhp, HS/Illinois | Bos, supp. 1st |
| 2nd | Bryan Morris, rhp, HS/Tennessee | TB, 3rd |
| 3rd | Jordan Schafer, of, HS/Florida | Atl, 3rd |
| 4th | Seth Johnston, ss, Texas | SD, 5th |
| 5th | Aaron Cunningham, of, Everett (Wash.) CC | CWS, 6th |
| 6th | Jeremy Slayden, of, Georgia Tech | Phi, 8th |
| 7th | Paul Phillips, rhp, Oakland | Tor, 9th |
| 8th | Daniel McCutchen, rhp, Oklahoma | StL, 12th |
| 9th | Mark Wagner, c, UC Irvine | Bos, 9th |
| 10th | Mike Bell, 3b, Grayson County (Texas) CC | Mil, 15th |
| Note: Supplemental first-rounder was 35th overall choice. | ||
| 2004 Hypothetical Draft (Picking 21st Each Round) | ||
| Round | Player, Pos, School | Real Life Draft |
| 1st | Jon Zeringue, of, Louisiana State | Ari, 2nd |
| 2nd | Erik Cordier, rhp, HS/Wisconsin | KC, 2nd |
| 3rd | Andrew Dobies, lhp, Virginia | Bos, 3rd |
| 4th | Mike Butia, of, James Madison | Cle, 5th |
| 5th | Brad McCann, 3b, Clemson | Fla, 6th |
| 6th | Jason Quarles, rhp, Southern | Pit, 7th |
| 7th | Grant Plumley, ss, Oral Roberts | NYY, 9th |
| 8th | Richard Mercado, c, Arizona | Ari, 12th |
| 9th | Jeff Gogal, lhp, Montclair State (N.J.) | Fla, 12th |
| 10th | Micah Owings, rhp, Georgia Tech | ChC, 19th |
| 2003 Hypothetical Draft (Picking 31st Each Round) | ||
| Round | Player, Pos, School | Real Life Draft |
| 1st | Ryan Sweeney, of, HS/Iowa | CWS, 2nd |
| 2nd | Tony Richie, c, Florida State | ChC, 4th |
| 3rd | Cliff Davis, rhp, HS/Mississippi | Hou, 6th |
| 4th | Justin James, rhp, Missouri | Tor, 5th |
| 5th | Clark Girardeau, rhp, South Alabama | SD, 7th |
| 6th | Andy D'Alessio, 1b, HS/Florida | Cin, 10th |
| 7th | Matt Maniscalco, ss, Mississippi State | TB, 8th |
| 8th | Chris Durbin, of, Baylor | Bos, 10th |
| 9th | Michael Brown, of, William & Mary | Det, 13th |
| 10th | Myron Leslie, ss, South Florida | Phi, 11th |
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