Ability Over Signability
Callis picks his latest shadow draft
CHICAGO—I annually conduct hypothetical 10-round drafts in this space, and I got a head start on 2009 three years ago, when I invested my ninth-round choice on an Indiana high school pitcher. After starring at Missouri, Kyle Gibson might have been a top-five pick this June had he not come down with a stress fracture in his forearm. The injury shouldn't have a long-term effect, and he'll be a bargain for the Twins at 22nd overall.
With my top pick (15th overall) this June, I pull off another coup when Texas high school righthander Shelby Miller falls into my lap. Miller ranked eighth on Baseball America's final draft board, and the only reason he fell to me—and to the Cardinals at No. 19 in real life—is his price tag.
I don't believe it will cost that much to divert Miller from attending Texas A&M. I do believe that he had the best high school fastball in the draft, a lively heater that touches 96 mph and comes out of his hand with little effort. He's a quality athlete who should develop a plus curveball and consistent command in time.
Ability Over Signability
By valuing ability over signability, I grabbed four first-round talents on BA's draft board.
With my sandwich pick (41st overall), I'm thrilled to land another Texas high schooler, outfielder Everett Williams (Padres, second round). There are a lot of premium athletic outfielders in this draft, and Williams may have the best bat of any of them.
I stick with first-round-caliber high schoolers for my next two picks. They may require seven-figure bonuses, but Kansas righthander Garrett Gould (Dodgers, second) and California catcher Max Stassi (Athletics, fourth) will be worth it.
Gould, who outdueled Miller at the World Wood Bat Association championship last fall, saw his fastball jump to 91-94 mph this spring and his power curveball is a better pitch. Stassi is the best pure hitter and the best judge of the strike zone among high school hitters in this draft, and he's a solid catcher who should have no trouble staying behind the plate.
I'm tempted to keep taking the best player available and select Las Vegas high school slugger Jeff Malm in the fourth round, but I'll keep my budget within reason. I'll opt for Loyola Marymount outfielder Angelo Songco (Dodgers, fourth). He has shown power with wood bats, ranking second in the Cape Cod League with eight homers last summer.
Schimpf Wields Big Bat
Cal State Fullerton's Josh Fellhauer intrigues me in the fifth round, but I also like another college center fielder (Mississippi's Jordan Henry) and gamble that one will last until the sixth because I want Louisiana State second baseman Ryan Schmipf (Blue Jays, fifth). Comparing small second basemen to Dustin Pedroia is becoming a cliché, but Schimpf repeatedly squares up balls and led LSU's College World Series team in homers this year. As a bonus, he bats lefthanded.
Both Fellhauer and Henry are still on the board in the sixth, so I take Fellhauer (Reds, seventh). He's an excellent defender in center field, and he should hit for average, get on base and provide gap power and speed.
We originally thought Monmouth righthander Ryan Buch (White Sox, eighth round) would go in the top two rounds, and though he cooled off late I'm glad to grab him in the seventh. When he's at his best, he has a 92-93 mph fastball that touches 95 and a power curveball.
College lefthanders Del Howell (Alabama) and Tyler Lyons (Oklahoma State) are appealing in the eighth round, but I'll hope one lasts another round and take Miami Dade CC outfielder Jabari Blash (Rangers, ninth). A native of the Virgin Islands, he's a raw athlete who has five-tool potential and has drawn comparisons to Jermaine Dye.
Both southpaws are there for the taking in the ninth round, and I take Howell (Brewers, 15th). Though he rarely was at full strength while battling mononucleosis this spring, he showed his upside when he struck out 10 in a complete-game win over Vanderbilt. Howell has a solid sinker/slider combination, plus the makings of a changeup.
I narrow my 10th and final pick down to four offensive players from the Midwest: outfielders Blake Dean (Louisiana State), Neil Medchill (Oklahoma State) and David Stewart (Grayson County, Texas, CC), and third baseman Mike Spina (Cincinnati). I go with Medchill (Yankees, 11th) because I like his lefthanded power and think he has the best chance to remain an outfielder.
MLB once again is leaning on clubs to keep bonuses down, but a team that's willing to listen to its scouts rather than to Bud Selig can assembled a strong draft. That's what I did, and I should be able to sign all 11 of my picks for under $7 million—or roughly what the Yankees will pay Xavier Nady this year.
Callis picks his latest shadow draft
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PrintCHICAGO—I annually conduct hypothetical 10-round drafts in this space, and I got a head start on 2009 three years ago, when I invested my ninth-round choice on an Indiana high school pitcher. After starring at Missouri, Kyle Gibson might have been a top-five pick this June had he not come down with a stress fracture in his forearm. The injury shouldn't have a long-term effect, and he'll be a bargain for the Twins at 22nd overall.
With my top pick (15th overall) this June, I pull off another coup when Texas high school righthander Shelby Miller falls into my lap. Miller ranked eighth on Baseball America's final draft board, and the only reason he fell to me—and to the Cardinals at No. 19 in real life—is his price tag.I don't believe it will cost that much to divert Miller from attending Texas A&M. I do believe that he had the best high school fastball in the draft, a lively heater that touches 96 mph and comes out of his hand with little effort. He's a quality athlete who should develop a plus curveball and consistent command in time.
Ability Over Signability
By valuing ability over signability, I grabbed four first-round talents on BA's draft board.
With my sandwich pick (41st overall), I'm thrilled to land another Texas high schooler, outfielder Everett Williams (Padres, second round). There are a lot of premium athletic outfielders in this draft, and Williams may have the best bat of any of them.
I stick with first-round-caliber high schoolers for my next two picks. They may require seven-figure bonuses, but Kansas righthander Garrett Gould (Dodgers, second) and California catcher Max Stassi (Athletics, fourth) will be worth it.
Gould, who outdueled Miller at the World Wood Bat Association championship last fall, saw his fastball jump to 91-94 mph this spring and his power curveball is a better pitch. Stassi is the best pure hitter and the best judge of the strike zone among high school hitters in this draft, and he's a solid catcher who should have no trouble staying behind the plate.
I'm tempted to keep taking the best player available and select Las Vegas high school slugger Jeff Malm in the fourth round, but I'll keep my budget within reason. I'll opt for Loyola Marymount outfielder Angelo Songco (Dodgers, fourth). He has shown power with wood bats, ranking second in the Cape Cod League with eight homers last summer.
Schimpf Wields Big Bat
Cal State Fullerton's Josh Fellhauer intrigues me in the fifth round, but I also like another college center fielder (Mississippi's Jordan Henry) and gamble that one will last until the sixth because I want Louisiana State second baseman Ryan Schmipf (Blue Jays, fifth). Comparing small second basemen to Dustin Pedroia is becoming a cliché, but Schimpf repeatedly squares up balls and led LSU's College World Series team in homers this year. As a bonus, he bats lefthanded.
Both Fellhauer and Henry are still on the board in the sixth, so I take Fellhauer (Reds, seventh). He's an excellent defender in center field, and he should hit for average, get on base and provide gap power and speed.
We originally thought Monmouth righthander Ryan Buch (White Sox, eighth round) would go in the top two rounds, and though he cooled off late I'm glad to grab him in the seventh. When he's at his best, he has a 92-93 mph fastball that touches 95 and a power curveball.
College lefthanders Del Howell (Alabama) and Tyler Lyons (Oklahoma State) are appealing in the eighth round, but I'll hope one lasts another round and take Miami Dade CC outfielder Jabari Blash (Rangers, ninth). A native of the Virgin Islands, he's a raw athlete who has five-tool potential and has drawn comparisons to Jermaine Dye.
Both southpaws are there for the taking in the ninth round, and I take Howell (Brewers, 15th). Though he rarely was at full strength while battling mononucleosis this spring, he showed his upside when he struck out 10 in a complete-game win over Vanderbilt. Howell has a solid sinker/slider combination, plus the makings of a changeup.
I narrow my 10th and final pick down to four offensive players from the Midwest: outfielders Blake Dean (Louisiana State), Neil Medchill (Oklahoma State) and David Stewart (Grayson County, Texas, CC), and third baseman Mike Spina (Cincinnati). I go with Medchill (Yankees, 11th) because I like his lefthanded power and think he has the best chance to remain an outfielder.
MLB once again is leaning on clubs to keep bonuses down, but a team that's willing to listen to its scouts rather than to Bud Selig can assembled a strong draft. That's what I did, and I should be able to sign all 11 of my picks for under $7 million—or roughly what the Yankees will pay Xavier Nady this year.
Past picks from Jim Callis' hypothetical drafts:
| 2008 Hypothetical Draft (Picking 18th Each Round) | ||
| Round | Player, Pos, School | Real Life Draft |
| 1st | Christian Friedrich, lhp, Eastern Kentucky |
Col, 1st |
| Supp. 1st | Brett DeVall, lhp, HS/Florida |
Atl, supp. 1st |
| 2nd | Dennis Raben, of, Miami |
Sea, 2nd |
| 3rd | Blake Tekotte, of, Miami |
SD, 3rd |
| 4th | Pete Hissey, of, HS/Pennsylvania | Bos, 4th |
| 5th | Justin Parker, ss, Wright State |
Ari, 6th |
| 6th | Brett Hunter, rhp, Pepperdine |
Oak, 7th |
| 7th | Tim Federowicz, c, North Carolina |
Bos, 7th |
| 8th | Gabe Jacobo, 3b, Sacramento State |
LAA, 10th |
| 9th | Justin LaTempa, rhp, Golden West (Calif.) JC |
Ari, 22nd |
| 10th | Mikie Mahtook, of, HS/Louisiana |
Fla, 39th |
| Note: Supplemental first-rounder was 40th overall choice. | ||
| 2007 Hypothetical Draft (Picking 11th Each Round) | ||
| Round | Player, Pos, School | Real Life Draft |
| 1st | Jason Heyward, of, HS/Georgia | Atl, 1st |
| Supp. 1st | Justin Jackson, ss, HS/North Carolina | Tor, supp. 1st |
| 2nd | Nevin Griffith, rhp, HS/Florida | CWS, 2nd |
| 3rd | Sam Demel, rhp, Texas Christian | Oak, 3rd |
| 4th | T.J. McFarland, lhp, HS/Illinois | Cle, 4th |
| 5th | Will Middlebrooks, 3b/rhp, HS/Texas | Bos, 5th |
| 6th | Matt Angle, of, Ohio State | Bal, 7th |
| 7th | Tim Smith, of, Arizona State | Tex, 7th |
| 8th | Colby Shreve, rhp, CC of Southern Nevada | Atl, 8th |
| 9th | Kade Koewen, of, Louisiana State-Eunice JC | Bos, 9th |
| 10th | Dan Rohlfing, c, HS/Missouri | Min, 14th |
| Note: Supplemental first-rounder was 41st overall choice. | ||
| 2006 Hypothetical Draft (Picking 19th Each Round) | ||
| Round | Player, Pos, School | Real Life Draft |
| 1st | Brett Sinkbeil, rhp, Missouri State | Fla, 1st |
| 2nd | Wes Hodges, 3b, Georgia Tech | Cle, 2nd |
| 3rd | Matt Sulentic, of, HS/Texas | Oak, 3rd |
| 4th | Ryan Morris, lhp, HS/North Carolina | Cle, 4th |
| 5th | Chris Archer, rhp, HS/North Carolina | Cle, 5th |
| 6th | Zach Daeges, of, Creighton | Bos, 6th |
| 7th | Luke Gorsett, of, Nebraska | StL, 7th |
| 8th | Kent Gerst, of, HS/Missouri | CWS, 8th |
| 9th | Kyle Gibson, rhp, HS/Indiana | Phi, 36th |
| 10th | Justin Woodall, lhp/of, HS/Mississippi | NYM, 19th |
| 2005 Hypothetical Draft (Picking 17th Each Round) | ||
| Round | Player, Pos, School | Real Life Draft |
| 1st | Luke Hochevar, rhp, Tennessee | LA, supp. 1st |
| Supp. 1st | Michael Bowden, rhp, HS/Illinois | Bos, supp. 1st |
| 2nd | Bryan Morris, rhp, HS/Tennessee | TB, 3rd |
| 3rd | Jordan Schafer, of, HS/Florida | Atl, 3rd |
| 4th | Seth Johnston, ss, Texas | SD, 5th |
| 5th | Aaron Cunningham, of, Everett (Wash.) CC | CWS, 6th |
| 6th | Jeremy Slayden, of, Georgia Tech | Phi, 8th |
| 7th | Paul Phillips, rhp, Oakland | Tor, 9th |
| 8th | Daniel McCutchen, rhp, Oklahoma | StL, 12th |
| 9th | Mark Wagner, c, UC Irvine | Bos, 9th |
| 10th | Mike Bell, 3b, Grayson County (Texas) CC | Mil, 15th |
| Note: Supplemental first-rounder was 35th overall choice. | ||
| 2004 Hypothetical Draft (Picking 21st Each Round) | ||
| Round | Player, Pos, School | Real Life Draft |
| 1st | Jon Zeringue, of, Louisiana State | Ari, 2nd |
| 2nd | Erik Cordier, rhp, HS/Wisconsin | KC, 2nd |
| 3rd | Andrew Dobies, lhp, Virginia | Bos, 3rd |
| 4th | Mike Butia, of, James Madison | Cle, 5th |
| 5th | Brad McCann, 3b, Clemson | Fla, 6th |
| 6th | Jason Quarles, rhp, Southern | Pit, 7th |
| 7th | Grant Plumley, ss, Oral Roberts | NYY, 9th |
| 8th | Richard Mercado, c, Arizona | Ari, 12th |
| 9th | Jeff Gogal, lhp, Montclair State (N.J.) | Fla, 12th |
| 10th | Micah Owings, rhp, Georgia Tech | ChC, 19th |
| 2003 Hypothetical Draft (Picking 31st Each Round) | ||
| Round | Player, Pos, School | Real Life Draft |
| 1st | Ryan Sweeney, of, HS/Iowa | CWS, 2nd |
| 2nd | Tony Richie, c, Florida State | ChC, 4th |
| 3rd | Cliff Davis, rhp, HS/Mississippi | Hou, 6th |
| 4th | Justin James, rhp, Missouri | Tor, 5th |
| 5th | Clark Girardeau, rhp, South Alabama | SD, 7th |
| 6th | Andy D'Alessio, 1b, HS/Florida | Cin, 10th |
| 7th | Matt Maniscalco, ss, Mississippi State | TB, 8th |
| 8th | Chris Durbin, of, Baylor | Bos, 10th |
| 9th | Michael Brown, of, William & Mary | Det, 13th |
| 10th | Myron Leslie, ss, South Florida | Phi, 11th |
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