Moderator: Welcome to the Draft Report Card chat. John Manuel did most of the AL teams plus the Mets, while Jim Callis did most of the NL teams plus the Red Sox, so we'll divide the questions up that way. Let's begin.
| Q: | Jon from NY asks: I was a bit dissapointed in the Mets draft, espeacially after they passed on starters Harvey and McGeary. So of all these power relievers who projects to be future closers? |
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John Manuel: Good place to start since I just finished our Mets top 10 and have begun the 11-30 writeups for the book. I've always been a Brant Rustich fa. He was bad this spring, but he has big-time stuff. Rick Waits (roving pitching dude) said Rustich might have the best arm of any draft pick he's worked with in his current capacity. That's saying something. He probably is going to be given a chance to start; Eddie Kunz is in the AFL right now and is on the fast track and Stephen Clyne has a chance to move quick as well. Talked this week to a scout who saw Clyne as an amateur, and he's convinced Clyne can be a great setup man but thinks he doesn't believe in himself enough to be a closer. He needs to realize he has two plus pitches and attack hitters with more confidence. |
| Q: | Ian from Pittsburgh asks: Ok, so the Pirates passed on Wieters to take a RP at 4 and now have a new front office. A small price to pay. But are there any other players who might redeem this draft for the Pirates? Might there be....gasp.....an impact player somewhere? Anywhere? |
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Jim Callis: The Pirates passed on Matt Wieters because of money, and they'll likely rue that decision. The extra investment would have been worth it, and I'll be honest, if they were set on taking a college LHP, I would have popped Ross Detwiler there. The rest of the draft unfolded like the recent Pittsburgh drafts . . . they got a few interesting guys, but no one who blows me away. RHP Duke Welker (second round) is big and has a good arm, but he also has a reputation for being a little soft. SS Brian Friday (third) was one of the better college shortstops but I think his ceiling tops out as a decent to solid regular. OF Quincy Latimore (fourth) has good athleticism but is raw. They like some of their later guys like ultra-athletic OF Marcus Davis (18th) and RHP Kyle McPherson (14th), but it looks like a pretty vanilla draft to me. |
| Q: | JAYPERS from IL asks: Who would you both say is the best sleeper in the entire draft, one for A.L. and one for N.L.? |
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Jim Callis: From the NL side, I really like Brewers RHP Cody Scarpetta. They got him in the 11th round because he had a damaged tendon in his middle finger, but before that he was soaring up the charts and drawing John Wetteland comparisons for his body and his plus fastball-curve combo. |
| Q: | Ben from Leland Grove asks: Who would you comp Ahrens to, and what timetable does Toronto see for him? |
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John Manuel: I'll let Jim worry about the comp. AS for timetable, he probably is going to need 2-3 years at least, as he's a switch-hitter and he's going to need a little more work than the average guy, plus he's moving to 3b, so there's a lot going on there.Tthere's no one in his way in the system, which got a much-needed infusion of talent from this draft. I thought about TOR being a top-5 draft but just wanted to see more out of their players in their debuts. Jim Callis: When I did our Texas draft preview, Ahrens repeatedly got compared to Chipper Jones because he's a switch-hitter with power who was going to move from shortstop to third base. Chipper didn't hit much in the GCL either. |
| Q: | Eric from California asks: I was wondering what your take was on Detwiler's secondary stuff. I saw his one inning in the bigs and his curve looked more like a brushback pitch. Does he have what it takes to be a front line big leaguer. Also, what are your feelings on how far away Porcello is? Keep up the great work! |
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Jim Callis: Don't read too much into one inning. He had a good spike curveball and he has the stuff to be a No. 2 starter (and that's coming from someone notoriously conservative with pitcher projections). As for Porcello, he's supposed to be the best high school pitcher since Josh Beckett. Beckett was in the majors at the end of his second full pro season, and the same timetable is reachable for Porcello. John Manuel: I don't think it will take Porcello long; he was dealing in instructional league. He's got power breaking stuff and repeats his delivery. To me, the biggest question will be handling his workload and getting him to be pitch efficient, to throw strikes and learn to get guys out with a fastball in a fastball count. He should be able to do that soon thanks to his velocity. The Josh Beckett contract brings Beckett comparisons that are unfair, and his curve is not at Beckett's level, but all that said, he has a chance to be a No. 1 starter and to move quickly like Beckett did. Jim Callis: Great minds think alike! Or at least, they jump at the same obvious comp. |
| Q: | Daniel from San Mateo, Ca asks: Will Matt Mitchell be in Burlington nexy year? Who will move quicker..Mitchell, Duffy or Runion? |
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John Manuel: Which Burlington?!? The Royals have two unfortunately; I mean, I love having them in NC, Burlington, NC has great Cheerwine slushies. I suppose you mean Iowa . . . I'd imagine all three of those pitchers will be in Burlington, but Duffy (a) has the best stuff, (b) is from Cali, (c) is lefthanded and (d) got the biggest bonus. He should move quicker. Mitchell has a bit better command right now but I still expect Duffy to do it; he was so dominant in the AZL. Runion's more of a projection guy, but a strike-throwing one, a good combo. |
| Q: | Jerred Gracey from York, Pa asks: Why don't more teams spend on the draft? It would make sense to get a lot of good young talent, they will play for several years for dirt cheap and you can always trade some of them to get a veteran? |
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Jim Callis: I answer this question all the time, but it keeps coming up because it's an important question in this era of draft slotting frenzy. I think some teams use the commissioner's mandate as an excuse to not spend on the draft, but the real answer is that any team that doesn't take advantage of the system is just hurting itself. MLB has it set up so that anyone who wants more than slot money will fall to a team that will pay the freight, and only a few teams will do so. Why not take advantage? The average big league team spends $70 million on big league salaries and $5 million on the draft. If you made that $65 million and $10 million, you wouldn't notice much difference at the big league level but you'd grab a ton more talent in the draft. This is the only way for smaller-revenue teams to compete with the larger-revenue teams for talent, but only the larger-revenue teams are taking advantage of slotting. |
| Q: | Jake from Bartlett, IL asks: Hi Guys! When can we look forward to seeing Casey Weathers in Colorado, and can he close over Corpas and company? Thanks for taking my question. |
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Jim Callis: I think Weathers could be up by the end of next year, as he's a reliever with power stuff, and those guys fly through the minors. Manny Corpas has a great arm, too, and he has succeeded in the closer's role, so I think he'll hang on to it for a while. |
| Q: | Ben from Leland Grove asks: Is David Price starting off in Vero Beach in '08, and if so, could he follow a similiar path as Mike Pelfrey did to begin his pro journey? |
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John Manuel: Vero's a safe guess. I hope he doesn't follow Pelfrey's path, which seems to be a path to mediocrity. How about Lincecum's path—10 or 15 minor league starts, then to the majors? Hope some of those starts are here in Durham. The Rays have enough other pitchers coming up that they don't need to rush Price, but I expect him to force the issue. |
| Q: | John Botelho from Rockland, MA asks: Was Ross Dewiler the only 2007 draftee to reach the big leagues this year? |
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John Manuel: Yes. |
| Q: | David from L.A. asks: Do you think the Padres blew it by selecting a crop of players with very limited upside? They had so many extra picks and took no chances. Seems like all they accomplished was landing players that will eventually lead them to a bunch of low-minors league championships. |
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Jim Callis: I think you're being a little harsh, David. People said the same things about guys like Matt Antonelli and Chase Headley in recent drafts, and they're looking pretty good now. Wade LeBlanc, too. This is the style of player Grady Fuson and Chief Gayton are most comfortable with drafting, and they're doing a nice job of restocking what had been a thin system. They did get Matt Latos as a draft-and-follow, for one. Drew Cumberland and Lance Zawadski are two interesting athletics. Mitch Canham is very athletic for a catcher. There is good ceiling with a lot of these guys. They could have shot for more upside, but it's not a bad draft at all. |
| Q: | Syney from Dallas, TX asks: Look into your crystal ball, do you see any of the Vineyard, Moviel, Owen or other Met draftees being any better than a back of the rotation guy? In what slots and order? |
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John Manuel: Moviel has serious upside and is the one of this group who could be a frontline starter, but it's a big if, because his breaking ball right now is his third pitch and I'm not a fan of the RHP with no breaking ball profile. Only one I can think of like that is Schilling and he has 80 command, so Moviel needs a breaker. Vineyard *could* be a 3 but more likely is a No. 4 profile if not a middle reliever. Dylan Owen is a No. 5 profile, no true plus pitch, maybe, maybe he's Jeff Suppan Lite . . but Suppan was in the majors at 21, not the NYP. Rustich, as already mentioned, is the wild card as he could start and has shown three average-to-plus pitches. |
| Q: | Ben from Leland Grove asks: Which player are you most disappointed in that their parent team couldn't come to terms with? |
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John Manuel: In the AL, I think the Angels have to be frustrated that they didn't get one from the Matt Harvey-Tanner Robles-Martin Viramontes trio, though Viramontes was banged up over the summer and they really didn't make a big run at getting him. Their draft class is off to a rough start, though getting Jordan Walden as a DFE and having Mason Tobin & Trevor Reckling have nice debuts might make up for it. The Tigers had a great draft but sound bummed that they couldn't keep Barret Loux from Texas A&M, and it sounds like Loux could be a real impact freshman for the Aggies. Jim Callis: For me, the biggest opportunity missed was the Dodgers with Kyle Blair. He had borderline first-round talent for most teams, and when Logan White believes in a pitcher, that's a pretty good statement. He would have signed for $1.2 million, and I bet he gets double that after three years at San Diego. |
| Q: | Michael Stern from Rochester NY asks: How fast till J. Heyward reaches Atlanta? Is he very raw, or will he move quickly? Does he have a higher ceiling than Schafer, and which, if either, will replace Andruw as the center fielder of the future? (I see where the Braves today announced Francoeur is not moving from RF) |
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Jim Callis: Heyward was one of the three best high school position players in the draft, and those guys move very quickly. I think he has a higher offensive ceiling than Jordan Schafer, but Heyward isn't a center fielder. He's more of a right fielder, and probably a left fielder in an outfield with Schaefer and Francoeur. |
| Q: | Jake from Bartlett, IL asks: Hi! How does Matt LaPorta's power rate on the 20-80 scouting scale? 70 at least? What kind of upside do you see for LaPorta at the major league level? Thanks for taking my question. |
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Jim Callis: Yes, 70 seems fair to say. He has loads of power, and I'd put his ceiling at .280 with 35-40 homers and a good amount of walks. I don't buy him as a left fielder, though, but the Brewers are pleased with his progress there. |
| Q: | Glenn from Baltimore asks: Despite giving away their second and third-round picks as compensation for ill-advised free agent signings, the Orioles salvaged their draft by spending big bucks for high-ceiling talent such as Wieters and Arrieta. Did they do well enough to have a top-ten draft class? Obviously, Wieters is a great talent, but what are the ceilings of Arrieta and Bascom? Thanks! |
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John Manuel: Glenn, I think Baltimore did make up for it a bit with Arrieta and Bascom, we'll see on both guys but solid early returns. Arrieta couldn't be off to a better start in the AFL, nine scoreless innings in the AFL, and Bascom answered the biggest questions about him really by showing he could pitch off his fastball some (still needs to more) and staying healthy. Joe Mahoney also sounds intriguing, as does John Mariotti, two nice second-day picks. But face it, Baltimore's draft comes down to Wieters. They think he can be Varitek with a lot more offense; that would be a spectacular player. We'll see. |
| Q: | tiffythetitan from Oakland, CA asks: I don't expect to get all my questions answered but thanks in advance either way. I was just curious how much it hurt the Giants to not pick until the 4th round in 2005 given that seemed to be a very, very deep draft class and the Giants missed out on some good players they could've used in their system. Everyone is panning the Astros draft this year but that is how I felt about the Giants 2005 effort but I didn't hear much about it from anyone else and of course no one got fired after that effort did they? |
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Jim Callis: Interesting point, Tiffy. I think the difference is that the Astros selected players in the third, fourth and eighth rounds and then couldn't get them signed, which looks worse. |
| Q: | JAYPERS from IL asks: Any chance teams won't go as much over slot next year as they did this year? |
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Jim Callis: I think very little to no chance. I think it's more likely that more teams will realize that by adhering to slotting, they're letting a precious few of their competitors have a huge draft advantage. MLB's revenues are soaring, so why try to squeeze a few pennies out of the draft? |
| Q: | Kyle from Va asks: Your thoughts on the Yanks draft? Brackman predictions? |
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John Manuel: I'm going to posit Brackman winds up a reliever. I'm skeptical about him; huge, huge upside, I just think being a No. 1 is about command and something intangible as well that he doesn't have, just don't see him as the fearless type. I think the Yankees got solid players but just because they spent seven figures on the guy doesn't make him a stud. One thing to note: the Yankees spent money on Brackman, a classic profile guy, but a lot of their guys were not classic Yankee Profile guys . . . these are guys who hit first and are athletes second. The Yankees won in the late '90s when they DID NOT follow the profile, and have faltered in this decade when they have profile guys at every spot on the diamond save 1B. I think their scouting dept. has noticed. Jim Callis: Just wanted to throw this in about the Yankees. While they had one of the best drafts (we rated it No. 5 in the game), they also overspent. Brackman had no leverage, and I had one team tell me that New York signed two guys (I presume Brad Suttle and Carmen Angelini) for more than they gave as their asking price. Kudos to the Yankees for being smart about using their financial muscle in the draft, but I don't think their $8 million bought $8 million worth of market value. |
| Q: | Norberto Paulino from New York asks: Do you see Middlebrooks starting his pro career as a SS or is this the Red Sox experimenting with him? also is it realistic to project Dent to hit 15-20 HR? he didn't hit that much power in H.S and in his pro debut? |
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Jim Callis: The Red Sox will start him off at shortstop, but most clubs felt he'd be a third baseman and I think he'll wind up there. Dent has the bat speed and strength to hit 15-plus homers. High school hitters sometimes need time to grow into their power, so be patient. |
| Q: | Michael Stern from Rochester NY asks: How soon till we see Todd Frazier in Cincy? What do you think his position will eventually be, as I guess his defense is still lagging a little behind his excellent offensive ability. I think he can be a nice offensive spark at the top half of the Redw line-up. What's his ETA? |
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Jim Callis: Frazier is 2-3 years away from the majors. I think he'll be a third baseman or corner outfielder. |
| Q: | Robert Goldberg from Lyndhurst, NJ asks: I noticed that Jonathan Lucroy got minimal love in the Brewers' report card. Isn't he exactly the kind of player who could move quickly through the system for a team that seems to be desperate for a catcher? Or is his defense that bad? |
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Jim Callis: Nothing wrong with Lucroy. It's just that he didn't quite win any of the categories, especially with Matt LaPorta's bat and Caleb Gindl's debut in the mix. He's an offensive catcher with adequate defense. He could move quickly for the Brewers. |
| Q: | Jerred Gracey from York, Pa asks: If you were a GM and you had the first choice in this last draft (and you had no limit to how much you could spend) who would you pick and why? |
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Jim Callis: David Price is the obvious answer. He was No. 1 on the draft boards of most teams. If I wanted a hitter, I would have taken Mike Moustakas first. I know that's really going out on a limb, identifying the top two picks. Jason Heyward would have been a lot higher than No. 14 on my draft board. John Manuel: Head says Price, heart (Greek) says Moustakas. |
| Q: | Matt from Wheaton asks: When you say the Twins owner has enough money to sign whoever he wants, do you mean through team profits? or out of his own pocket? Because no owner is going to put their own money in to something like that, that would be dumb. |
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John Manuel: I believe, Matt, you are referring to JJ Cooper's chat Wednesday over at ESPN.com. I'll put it this way: MLB is awash in money right now. Pretty much every team is. Some more than others, but if the Royals can give Gil Meche $55 mil over five years, any club can spend. It's all a matter of what the clubs choose to do. Yes, Carl Pohlad could choose to spend out of his pocket; he's a billionaire. But would it be "dumb"? I mean, why does he own the team? Does he want to win? If he does, well, he can afford it. I don't think it would be dumb; maybe it's not good business but I wouldn't call it dumb. |
| Q: | Frank from Minnesota asks: Where type of player do you project Ozzie Lewis to be? Looking at his college numbers and short season numbers at E-town it seems like he could be an impact bat in Minnesota in a few seasons. Thank you! |
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John Manuel: He's fine but the swing can get pretty long. He has some other tools but he was available where the Twins got him in the draft (21st round) because the consensus was that he is not an impact bat. |
| Q: | Joel from Washington, DC asks: One Pirates follow up: I was hoping that the new administration would at least have the sense to try Moskos as a starter, which I gather is what he prefers. So I was disappointed to read that he's staying in the bullpen. Why not at least make that change to increase his potential impact? |
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Jim Callis: I'm with you Joel. He certainly has enough stuff to start, and I think most teams would have gone that route. Maybe the plan will change under Neal Huntington. |
| Q: | James from Lawrence, KS asks: Was David Lough better than 11th round talent? He didn't play much, but seemed to be pretty solid in Burlington (NC). Is there any one to compare to him to, and is he a legitimate prospect coming from a DII school? |
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John Manuel: Lough is part of a speedy Royals draft class, but he seems like he can hit too. It sounds like he is legit, good profile in terms of a lefty bat who can play CF, some sting in his bat for his size, enough to keep pitchers honest, anyway. Not sure how high the ceiling is but an interesting 11th rounder and small-school joker. |
| Q: | Dan from Pasadena, CA asks: The recap says that the Sox see a bit of Lars Anderson in Anthony Rizzo, can you guys elaborate on that? |
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Jim Callis: Sure. The Red Sox went over slot (though not as much as they did for Anderson) to sign Rizzo for $325,000. They signed him for his bat, and it was more advanced than they expected. Will be interesting to see if he handles the South Atlantic League as well as Anderson did this year. |
| Q: | Jerred Gracey from York, Pa asks: Its 5 years from now, please sum up the Cardinals draft? |
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Jim Callis: Pete Kozma will be St. Louis' shortstop and Clayton Mortensen will be near the front of their rotation. Jess Todd will be a key setup man. |
| Q: | Rich Minford from Boone, NC asks: I was shocked to see how little money the Angels spent on this years draft, since they are a successful major market team. Given the background of their owner, is this an indication that they more interested in developing foreign players than tapping into the American talent pool? |
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John Manuel: I was surprised too Rich but the Angels also weren't terribly aggressive in Latin America this year. I don't sense a shift; I just sense an organization that takes players it likes but then wants to pay them what it wants to pay them. Hey, it worked with Jered Weaver, they won that battle with Scott Boras. The Angels clearly will spend money in the big leagues and on amateurs domestically and internationally (see Young-Il Jung last year), but they are also not out there spending just to be spending. That said, I think this year's draft class might put a crimp in their overall talent level. |
| Q: | Ben from Leland Grove asks: Where would you project Jarrod Parker in the rotation, or is he destined for the pen? Also, where will he begin his pro career? |
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Jim Callis: Definite frontline stuff. Parker isn't big, but he doesn't throw with effort. His fastball can overpower most hitters and his hard breaking ball is pretty tough, too. He won't have to go to the bullpen. |
| Q: | Ted from Canada asks: Logan White and Mike Rizzo's names have been mentioned often enough, but who else consistently puts together a good top-to-bottom draft on a dollar-for-dollar basis? |
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John Manuel: Ted, I ran this one by Jim, and we both immediately thought of Jack Zduriencik of the Brewers, who drafted most of the key Brewers pieces without going over slot, without extra picks. He's had a good staff with the Brewers as well and now has had his second crosschecker in two years to leave to become a Scouting Director in Bobby Heck (Houston), following Tom Allison (Diamondbacks). |
| Q: | Michael Stern from Rochester NY asks: Love Nick Noonan of SF. How long till he arrives in the bigs? Do you see him as an impact all star type player? What's his ceiling? |
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Jim Callis: I like Noonan's bat, and most scouting directors I talked to about him this year really liked the way he gets after it. He's probably a good three years away, but I can see him becoming an all-star second baseman. To me, because I think he's a better bet to hit than Wendell Fairley (who has more ceiling), Noonan is the best position prospect in the Giants system. |
| Q: | andy from sarver asks: david littlefield always said that money wasnt the issue for drafting Moskos over Wieters? what is your opinion to where Moskos should have been drafted? |
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Jim Callis: Well, that's just crazy. To me, Moskos should have gone in the 6-15 range somewhere, definitely behind Matt Wieters, Ross Detwiler and Jason Heyward. |
| Q: | Lefty from So.Cal asks: Jim, I'v been following Lucas Duda's career ever since he was at a high school in my hometown. He seemed to have a breakout year and has just begun to develop. Do the Mets have serious plans for him at 1B or is he a corner OF guy with pop? |
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John Manuel: Duda impressed for sure in his pro debut; I loved the stat about how he had 20 doubles at Brooklyn, as many as he had in three years at USC. He was OK in left field as well. Whether or not he can play a big league LF, I think that's still to be determined but it won't matter if he hits like he did at USC. The early returns are very encouraging. John Manuel: Well, that's a personal record for Mets answers, and Jim and I gave you guys 40 minutes of podcast goodness this morning, so between that and the chat, we're DRC'd out. Hope everyone enjoys the weekend and the rest of the World Series. Stay tuned—Chris Kline chats on the AFL next Friday, Alan Matthews & Aaron Fitt blog and podcast this weekend from Jupiter at the World Wood Bat showcase, and Top 10s begin the week of Nov. 5. |