| Q: | Lourdes from (LODI, NJ) asks: Who do the Yankees draft at 30? |
| A: | Alan Matthews: Well, Draft Week is finally upon us. It's taking some getting used to not preparing for a Tuesday tee-time, but with the draft moving to TV this year, it's held this Thursday, which will make for an eventful three days leading up to the first pick Thursday afternoon. Alan Matthews: What of this draft's most intriguing aspects is going to be signability, and how it affects players and teams. The Yankees are in a good position, because they've proven they don't have much (if any) regard for slot recommendations. That means as players slide based on signability this year, the Yankees won't hesitate to take them with the final pick of the first round. Guys like Rick Porcello and Matt Wieters, both Scott Boras clients, will be looking for healthy signing bonuses, and if the team in the top 4-5 picks take a pass, someone of that caliber could be there for the Yankees at 30. |
| Q: | Mike from Boston asks: If you had the choice, would you pick Matt Dominguez or Kevin Ahrens? |
| A: | Alan Matthews: That's a tough call, and I think I might have to go with Dominguez because of his defense. Ahrens has a better swing and he's a switch-hitter, whereas Dominguez bats right and has some mechanical swing flaws that need to be ironed out, but Dominguez has plus-plus raw power and is a plus-plus defender at third base. |
| Q: | Mike from Boston asks: Are there any SS2Bs whom you think are being overlooked? |
| A: | Alan Matthews: Well, it's hard to believe we're "overlooking" any impact-potential prospects, given the depth and detail of our draft coverage over the past few months, but a couple of middle infielders that could be taken in the sandwich or second round who have a chance to develop into frontline prospects for contending teams are Justin Jackson of Roberson High in Asheville, N.C., Danny Worth, ss, Pepperdine and Josh Horton of North Carolina. In a second tier group of middle infielders who haven't been featured in our top 200 prospects list are guys like Eric Farris, 2bss, Loyola Marymount, Oliver Marmol, ss, College of Charleston and Sergio Moranda, ss, Virginia Commonwealth. Also, Rick Hague, a high school middle infielder from Texas who has committed to Rice, hasn't had a very good year, and will likely wind up in college, but might come out of Rice as a high-rounder. |
| Q: | TJ from Miami asks: Any clues on what the Marlins are looking at in the first round?? I hear Jarrod Parker but he should be gone by #12? |
| A: | Alan Matthews: There must be at least one question in the chat que re. each MLB team's outlook in the opening rounds, and frankly it's a tough task given the unpredictability of the draft, especially this year. Other than rumors I'm hearing on who might go in the top five rounds, the best way to make a somewhat educated guess on the later picks is to look at philosophy of the club and its scouting director. I think Stan Meek of the Marlins has proven he can evaluate with the best of them, and is willing to jump up and take a player with more upside than present ability. That said, I don't think Parker is there at 12, and if a guy like Jason Heyward is still on the board, he might be a nice option. Other possibilities are Beau Mills and Phillippe Aumont, but again, it's largely guess work at this point. Scouting directors aren't known for tipping hands on their high-round picks. |
| Q: | Ryan from Washington DC asks: How is the top 10 shaping up as of now? I'm curious as to whom will be available when the Nationals select at #6. |
| A: | Alan Matthews: In our most recent draft tracker, we had Jason Heyward is the 6 hole, but there's no certainty Washington would take him there. Prive at 1 seems to be a lock, but after that, a combination of Josh Vitters, Matt Wieters, Dan Moskos, Ross Detwiler, Mike Mostakas and Rick Porcello are likely the next six names on most draft boards, so one of those might be the Nats' man. One thing to consider is who is running the Nats' draft. If it's Jim Bowden, there's no telling which direction they'll go, but if it's Mike Rizzo or Dana Brown, I'd feel a little more comfortable Washington's choice will be a logical one. |
| Q: | Bob Goulet from Burbank, Ca asks: I've been hearing some news about Beau Mills going #4 to the pirates, #10 to the Giants, or #22 to the Giants. My question is how 1 guy could be projected so many places? He seems like he is the real deal....38 home runs in 59 games.....I mean why isn't he being considered for a top 5 pick? |
| A: | Alan Matthews: Again, that's the nature of the MLB draft. It's extremely difficult to a read on which players have separated themselves, outside of the top 10 players in the country, this year, and what initiative each club carries into its draft room is another huge unknown. If Pittsburgh's ownership has pressured Ed Creech to pop a polished player who might be able to help the big league club sooner than later, I could foresee them taking Mills with their first pick @ 4. But Mills is a one-dimensional player who is brutal defensively and he's posted his numbers at the NAIA level, clearly inferior competition. He's got as much raw power as anyone in the draft, so you have to weigh the tools out and decide how valuable his power is given his other deficiencies. |
| Q: | Joe from Edmonton, AB asks: Hey Alan, Do you see the Jays getting Mesoraco and if so who would you pick with the other first round pick? Also do you see them being able to get Kozma at 38? |
| A: | Alan Matthews: It would not be a stretch to take Mesoraco @ 16 with their first pick, though there's an outside chance he's there @ 21, so they could wait and hope to get him there. Jon Lalonde might have nailed his first-rounder a year ago when he took a high school outfielder, Travis Snider, in '06, and Mesoraco has similar impact potential at the plate. |
| Q: | Cody from San Diego asks: With Padres having 6 of the first 60 picks, which directions do you see them going in the first round and the supplemental first? |
| A: | Alan Matthews: As we wrote in the draft preview lead story, how teams such as Toronto, San Diego and Texas, who have multiple selections in the top 50 or 60 slots, spend their choices is another interesting sidebar to this year's draft. Logicially, you would think these teams would have a nice mix of players, taking a polished pitcher that might not have much of a ceiling, then popping a high school pitcher with a big arm and lots of upside, and blending in players that fill holes in their system and could come cheaply, as well. Their budget will have a huge play in how they spend their picks, because if you spend slot money on each of your picks, in the case of San Diego, their expenses are going to sky rocket. That said, if ownership oks it, they could have a farm system with three or four premimum prospects all coming from this year's draft in a couple of years if they choose wisely. |
| Q: | Nelson from Seattle, WA asks: Is there any chance that Julian Sampson shows up at the UW next year or is he going high enough to sign for sure? Also, any word on Jackson HS LHP Geoff Brown and what his draft status is? |
| A: | Alan Matthews: Had Sampson shown firmer stuff and dominated this spring, he could have played his way into the first 40 picks. A team who believes in his projection and is confident it can tighten his secondary stuff might still jump up and take him in the second or third round, where he would be hard-pressed to pass up the signing bonus. Brown has a lot of potential in college, but doesn't have the pro upside of a Sampson or Keaton Hayenga. |
| Q: | Ron from Quebec asks: In addition to Aumont and Lotzgar, who are the next 6 Canadians that will get drafted in what rounds? |
| A: | Alan Matthews: I ranked Canada's second tier class of prospects in this order, based on talent: 3. Evan Hilldenbrant, rhp, Abbotsford (B.C.) HS 4. Cameron Gray, rhp, Silverthorn Collegiate HS, Toronto 5. Michael Mutcheson, ss, Morden (Manitoba) Collegiate Institute 6. Jordan Wideman, c, Streetsville SS, Mississauga, Ont. 7. Guillaume Leduc, rhp, Academie du Baseball Canada, Montreal 8. Leslie Williams, rhpof, Birchmount Park Collegiate Institute, Scarborough, Ont. 9. Colin Buckborough, rhp, Stamford Collegiate HS, Niagara Falls, Ont. |
| Q: | J.J. from Annapolis asks: Outside of Borbon, which prospects college and prep profile best in center? |
| A: | Alan Matthews: It's not a deep crop, but one guy to look out for is Lee Haydel, who signed last week with the Brewers as a draft-and-follow pick. Michael Main would be a true center fielder, but he's going to go as a pitcher instead. Collin Delome really finished the seaosn on a high note before he got injured and Puerto Rican center fielder Angel Morales can really cover some ground out there, but lacks a polished approach at the plate, as do many of these players. |
| Q: | Frank Brocato from Houston TX asks: Kevin Ahrens has been steadily moving up the draft charts as of late. Where do you think that he will go? |
| A: | Alan Matthews: We're hearig he could go to the Reds at 15. He'd be a nice pick there. |
| Q: | Carlos from Bronx NY asks: Why cant all 30 teams boycot any Scott Bores Clients? If all 30 teams said anyone who is a Boras Client, we will not deal with. Players would use other agents.This guy has baseball in a headlock.Get rid of him. I am sick of paying $7.50 for a hotdog in Yankee Stadium. |
| A: | Alan Matthews: I feel your pain, but like him or not, the guy gets the most for his clients in most cases. There are too many teams starved for an edge, and if gaining that edge means taking a Boras client and paying premium cash for him, there will always be teams willing to do just that. |
| Q: | Jared from LA asks: With the 20th pick, the Los Angeles Dodgers select... |
| A: | Alan Matthews: Probably a major leaguer, given the track record of Logan White and first-year scouting director Tim Hallgren (who ran the Rangers' 2001 draft that included Mark Teixeira). Blake Beavan might be a fit, as the Dodgers have mined the Midwest effectively recently and Texas area scout Calvin Jones is an excellent pitching evaluator. |
| Q: | Martin from Fox Vally, WI asks: Thanks for your awesomeness. Are you hearing the Brewers might pony up for a Boras client like Moustakas, or even Wieters? |
| A: | Alan Matthews: If Wieters falls, a source reported that the Brewers were doing their best to make sure they had a good last look at him, by sending some upper level scouting personnel into Jacksonville, Fla., for the ACC tournament, so it's a possibility they would be willing to spend the money to get him at No. 7 if he falls. |
| Q: | Richard from Atlanta asks: Who do think the Braves will draft with there top Pick? |
| A: | Alan Matthews: Again, my theory on "predicting" which team takes which player with their first pick is just to look at how the team has drafted in the past, and it's no secret that Atlanta's receipe of concentrating on high school players from the Southeast has been winning taste tests for decades. Josh Smoker is a candidate here, as is Michael Main, as a pitcher. Phillippe Aumont and Jason Heyward might be two other possibilities. |
| Q: | Martin from Fox Vally, WI asks: Matt Wieters seems very similar to Jeff Clement production wise, do they compare as prospects, or is Wieters more projectable? |
| A: | Alan Matthews: It has less to do with projection and more to do with present ability, but Wieters is much farther along as a defensive catcher at this stage that Clement was. Wieters is a switch-hitter, also, but otherwise, the comp isn't too far off in terms of ultimate big league value. |
| Q: | Tom from Atlanta asks: There have been rumours that the Braves are interested in Jon Gilmore. Have you heard these? Do you think there's any basis to them? What type of potential does Gilmore have? Thanks. |
| A: | Alan Matthews: I have not heard that specifically, but Gilmore can really hit, so I would keep my eye on him as a potential second- third-round type that shows power and a high average after a couple of years in the minors. |
| Q: | Chuck from LA, CA asks: Do you think the fastest kid in the draft Gary Brown, from Diamond Bar HS will go in the first round or supplemental round? He was def. the fastest kid I saw play all season long in the high school ranks. Thank you an avid baseball fan... |
| A: | Alan Matthews: I ran that exact question by a national crosschecker based on the West Coast, and he felt like Ben Revere, a high school outfielder from Kentucky, was a grade ahead of Brown in terms of the raw run tool. Brown is among the class' burners, however, and I love the aggression and passion with which he plays the game. |
| Q: | Rob from Ann Arbor, MI asks: Alan - outside of David Price - how do the top college draft-eligible arms compare with this year's crop of high school arms? In particular, if you were a scouting director would you rather have someone like Nick Schmidt, Joe Savery, D. Moskos, Detwiler - or Smoker, Havery, Porcello, Main, Aumont, Bumgarner, and Parker? Which group has the better long-term potential? |
| A: | Alan Matthews: Parker and Porcello are in the same ballpark as Price in terms of present ability combined with projection--basically ultimate value. But after Moskos and Detwiler, I believe that the high school arms you mentioned are significantly more talented that the the college arms of Savery and Schmidt. |
| Q: | Rob from Ann Arbor, MI asks: Alan - what is the latest on Andrew Brackman? Do you see him falling out of the 1st round altogether? |
| A: | Alan Matthews: Well, N.C. State lost in regional play this weekend, so its season is over and Brackman made only one appearance, totaling four innings, during the entire month of May. I don't see any way he's taken in the first round, unless he expresses willingness to sign for $1 million or less. |
| Q: | Albert from Miami, Fl asks: Where do you see both Danny Rams (Miami Gulliver Prep) and Yasmani Grandal (Miami Springs HS) being selected in the upcoming amateur draft? |
| A: | Alan Matthews: Two talented high school players from Miami, I think Grandal is a lock to be taken inside the first 40-50 picks. There are some questions re. his ultimate ability with the bat, but he's proven he can catch and throw, and as a switch-hitter who performed well this spring, I think there are enough teams on him and confident in his abilities to take him in the first half of the sandwich round, and perhaps sneak into the back of the first round. Rams, probably a second-rounder. I just don't think he's going to make it to the major leagues as a catcher, and that depresses his value. |
| Q: | Matt from Glen Ellyn, IL asks: Who do you think the Cubs are targeting with their 1st round selection? |
| A: | Alan Matthews: Wieters or Parker. |
| Q: | Rob from Ann Arbor, MI asks: Is this draft deep enough that teams like the Rangers (5 picks in the top 54), Giants (6 picks in the top 51) and Padres (8 picks in the top 88) can transform weak farm systems into strong ones? |
| A: | Alan Matthews: There's no doubt that if the ownership of these teams allow their scouting departments to take the best player available and sign him for slot money with each of their high picks, all three systems, as well as Toronto's, could be significantly improved. |
| Q: | Julius from Houston asks: The Astros won't pick until #111. I've heard Tim Purpura say that they may go after some tough signs since they will have some extra money to spend due to the lack of the first two picks. Do you have ideas on who might be available, or who they might take a flyer on? Are there any Troy Pattons out there? Thanks. |
| A: | Alan Matthews: The Astros are in a real tough situation because they wait to draft but owner Drayton McClane has been one of the owners who has stuck closely to MLB's slot recommendations, and might not allow the Astros scouting department to spend more than slot money. |
| Q: | Sean from Toronto asks: Is there any chance Chris Withrow is selected in the first round? How does Withrow compare to fellow Texan Blake Beavan? |
| A: | Alan Matthews: I first saw Withrow in a showcase at the U. of Arkansas right after last year's draft, and fell in love with his delivery and projection. He was not invited to attend the Area Code Games last summer in California, which was curious to me because I thought, in terms of projection, he deserved to be mentioned in the same breath with the more-heralded Beavan. He began to turn some of that projection into present stuff this season, and is one of the sleepers of this year's draft. First round? Might be a stretch there, but certainly I would not be surprised to see him go as high as the Philles at 37 or Dodgers at 39. |
| Q: | Sean from Toronto asks: How would you rank Dominguez, Ahrens, Mesoraco, Noonan, and Kozma based purely on their bats? |
| A: | Alan Matthews: Strictly on the bat, it's Dominguez, Mesoraco, Ahrens, Noonan and Kozma. |
| Q: | Omar from Windsor asks: Your thoughts on the Mets taking Ryan Dent in the sandwich round? |
| A: | Alan Matthews: I don't know what type of players the Mets are targeting, though they added an excellent evaluator to their staff last year in John Poloni, who would have had a chance to see Dent at showcases and tournaments last summer and fall, and could be a nice boost to the Mets' staff. Dent would be an option as a solid second base complement to Reyes, but he has a long ways to go with the bat, and won't be zooming through the system. |
| Q: | Mike from New York asks: Some top guys that might fall out of the first round becuase of signability issues? |
| A: | Alan Matthews: Porcello and Wieters are the two most likely candidates. Guys like Aumont and Mesoraco are going to be two likely beneficiaries if that happens, as both are considered cinch signees if they go as high as the top 15 picks. |
| Q: | Brace from St. Cloud, MN asks: This question kind of pertains to the draft. But I have noticed a few kids from college have already signed contracts with MLB Organizations. To name a few, Konrad Schmidt (C-Nevada) and Chris Dunn (OF-FIU) have signed with the Diamondbacks and Marlins respectively. What is the Official Rule for 5th year seniors in college? Thanks. |
| A: | Alan Matthews: They become a free agent after their college season is over and are free to negotiate with teams within a week leading up to the draft, though there are provisions made for players who go into regional play. For instance, if a team loses today or this weekend and has a fifth-year senior, they are allowed a small window of time to negotiate as a free agent, even though we are less than a week from the draft. |
| Q: | Gary from Queens asks: McGeary worth overslotting for? |
| A: | Alan Matthews: In my opinion, he is, but we have not gotten many positive reports of his performance this year. He walked more than 20 batters in a relatively short high school season against below-average competition, and command was his best asset when I saw him multiple times last summer. I believe that his athleticism is going to help him gain velocity and repeat his delivery as he matures, but his price tag is reportedly near $2 million, and I have a hunch there are not enough teams who have seen him pitch well enough this spring to warrant that kind of bonus. |
| Q: | Brace from St. Cloud, MN asks: In a few mock drafts, they have the Twins drafting high school infield talent. Don't you think it would be better for the Twins to draft a good college hitter so we can move him up quickly? 3rd Basemen would be the biggest need I think. |
| A: | Alan Matthews: If teams followed that logical line of thinking, this would be a lot easier to predict, but it's simply not the case. Most teams are going to go after the best player available, simply because of the failure ratio of many drafted players. |
| Q: | Rick from Utah asks: Any thoughts on Cole Abbott? |
| A: | John Manuel: John Manuel stepping in to finish up the chat for a bit . . . hope you guys don't mind. John Manuel: Rick I think I over-rated Cole a bit in terms of putting him in the national scope of things. There's a lot of projection involved on this high school pitcher from Utah with athleticism who flashes a pair of plus pitches. Still like him as a prospect, just think I was a bit optimistic in ranking him as high as we did in the Top 200. If he and Taylor Cole of Nevada get to BYU, the Cougars will be pretty legit in the near future. I thought BYU should have been in the 64-team field as it happens, if anyone is interested. |
| Q: | Todd from Columbia, SC asks: Who deserves to host a potential super regional between traditional powers Clemson and MSU provided the Tigers take care of business today? Also, what are the 2007 draft prospects of Clemson juniors SS Taylor Harbin and CF Brad Chalk? |
| A: | John Manuel: Clemson should host, better resume than Mississippi State, but the chair of the committee is MSU's outgoing AD, and Mississippi State has greater fan capacity, and it went on the road to beat Florida State. I'd bet Mississippi State gets it. As for Harbin and Chalk, they are really good college players, I'm not a fan of either for more than the fifth round personally. Harbin plays with energy and grit and has moved to SS with nary a complaint this year, I really respect that. He's a 2B though as a pro, and I don't know if he hits enough there in terms of his plate discipline and power. Chalk's lack of power just frightens me, he's a great college player, plays with energy, but a bad back and no power makes him unattractive as a prospect, for me. |
| Q: | Juan from San Diego asks: Is Nick Noonan to the Padres at 23 a strong possibility and if so is it a stretch? |
| A: | John Manuel: Unfortunately I don't know the chances, but it would be a stretch to me. All his value is in his bat, he's not a great athlete or super defender. He can stay at 2b and he can hit; whether or not he has Chase Utley's power would make it a fit or not at 23, and the consensus is he does not. |
| Q: | Mike from Brewerfan asks: Dominguez or Heyward, who profiles as a better offensive performer down the road? |
| A: | John Manuel: Heyward has more upside offensively; not slighting Dominguez there. Heyward probably has more upside offensively than anyone in the draft, save Vitters, and maybe including Vitters, depending on who you talk to. Dominguez' approach was improved late, according to one scout I talked to last week. |
| Q: | John from Georgia asks: Can Nick Fuller re-enter the draft? And if he could were would he go and what could be his ceiling? |
| A: | Alan Matthews: We tracked this down, and were unable to determine if Fuller was expelled from school in time (March 23) to become eligible for the draft. He would have had to drop out, or in this case, officially be expelled, by March 23 in order to become eligible this year. Fuller, the South Carolina pitcher who was kicked off the team this year for theft, was a freshman, so that's where the ambiguity comes in. Alan Matthews: John Manuel is on in relief, as I'm off to work the phones and figure out who might be taken where and who's falling fast. I'll be in Orlando Thursday for the draft, and Jim Callis will be chatting first thing Friday morning to help our readers break it all down. Thanks for all the great questions. |