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Three Years Later

May 16, 2003

To sign, or not to sign?

That's a question hundreds of draft picks ask themselves each year as they contemplate signing a professional contract out of high school, or going off to college with the hopes of being drafted again three years later.

As the following chart shows and history has verified, an early-round draft pick improves his draft position about a third of the time, hurts his position about the same and stays the same about a third.

Here's a list of the top 25 players from the 2000 draft who went unsigned and are eligible again for this year's draft. Baseball America editor Allan Simpson projects his 2003 draft status and whether the player helped himself by not signing, stayed the same or went down.


FIRST ROUND
Player, Pos., Hometown
College Status in 2003
Matt Harrington, rhp, Rockies None 10th-20th round
FOURTH ROUND
Player, Pos., Hometown
College Status in 2003
Marc Kaiser, rhp, Reds Lewis-Clark State 4th-6th round
Brian Montalbo, rhp, Braves California 8th-12th round
FIFTH ROUND
Player, Pos., Hometown
College Status in 2003
Tony Ritchie, c, White Sox Florida State 2nd-3rd round
Roydell Williams, of, Reds Tulane (football) won't be drafted
SEVENTH ROUND
Player, Pos., Hometown
College Status in 2003
Wes Littleton, rhp, Expos Cal State Fullerton 1st-2nd round
Aaron Hill, ss, Angels Louisiana State 1st round
Matt Vasquez, rhp, Rangers UC Santa Barbara 3rd-5th round
NINTH ROUND
Player, Pos., Hometown
College Status in 2003
Jesse Kozlowski, rhp, Marlins Long Beach Pierce JC won't be drafted
Mike Hofius, 1b, Tigers Long Beach State 15th-20th round
Scott Tolbert, rhp, Indians Georgia Southern 8th-12th round
TENTH ROUND
Player, Pos., Hometown
College Status in 2003
Bill Clayton, rhp, Marlins SE Missouri State 10th-20th round
Andy Toussaint, of, Dodgers Southern 8th-12th round
11TH ROUND
Player, Pos., Hometown
College Status in 2003
Garrett Patterson, rhp, Angels -- won't be drafted
Kyle Parcus, lhp, Pirates Texas A&M 10th-20th round
Mike Moat, rhp, Rangers San Diego State 10th-20th round
Bob McCrory, rhp, Astros Southern Mississippi 2nd round
13TH ROUND
Player, Pos., Hometown
College Status in 2003
Shane Boyd, rhp, Twins Kentucky (football) won't be drafted
Collin Perschon, rhp, Mets Lewis-Clark State won't be drafted
14TH ROUND
Player, Pos., Hometown
College Status in 2003
Eric Sultmeier, of, Reds Texas 6th-10th round
Bob Zimmerman, rhp, Rockies SW Missouri State 3rd-4th round
Myron Leslie, 3b, Rangers South Florida 3rd-4th round
15TH ROUND
Player, Pos., Hometown
College Status in 2003
Matt Tribble, of, Cubs Kansas 10th-15th round
Cole Bruce, 3b, Tigers Houston won't be drafted
16TH ROUND
Player, Pos., Hometown
College Status in 2003
Chad Corona, 3b, Cubs San Diego State 10th-15th round

On the flip side to the above chart, here's a list of 15 players who weren't drafted out of high school in 2000, have never been drafted and have surfaced as potential high-round picks this year:


Player, Pos., Hometown College Status in 2003
Rickie Weeks, 2b Southern 1st round
Michael Aubrey, 1b Tulane 1st round
Vince Sinisi, 1b Rice 1st round
Marc Cornell, rhp Ohio 1st round
Brad Sullivan, rhp Houston 1st round
Brad Snyder, of Ball State 1st round
Carlos Quentin, of Stanford 1st round
Matt Murton, of Georgia Tech 1st round
Brain Anderson, of Arizona 1st-2nd round
Dennis Dove, rhp Georgia Southern 1st-2nd round
Mitch Maier, c Toledo 2nd round
Thomas Pauly, rhp Princeton 2nd round
Jamie D'Antona, 3b Wake Forest 2nd round
David Aardsma, rhp Rice 2nd-3rd round
Landon Powell, c South Carolina 2nd-3rd round

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