next 16 business days, we’ll unveil one league Top 20 Prospects list after
another, starting with the
Rookie-level Arizona League today. Detailed scouting reports and a chat with the
writer will accompany each list, as usual.
always, if you have a question to ask about those Top 20 lists—or any
other baseball subject—direct it to firstname.lastname@example.org
(and please include your full name and hometown). I answer three questions
every Monday and I’ve taken your queries here since July
2001. Keep them coming.
Joc Pederson a top outfield prospect? Where would he
rank among the Dodgers' best prospects?
Los Alamitos, Calif.
your thoughts on Joc Pederson? He had a great second half of the season. Is he
the Dodgers' best position prospect and does he have a chance to be an impact
player in the majors?
Elk Grove, Calif.
The son of former big leaguer Stu Pederson, Joc signed for
$600,000 as an 11th-round pick in 2010. The Dodgers brought him along slowly,
keeping him in Rookie ball for almost all of his first two summers as a pro,
before jumping him to high Class A this year. He missed most of the first month
of the season with a groin injury before hitting .313/.396/.516.
The California League inflates numbers more than any other
circuit, but that’s still an impressive performance for a 20-year-old. As
Dustin mentioned, Pederson had a banner second half, batting .328/.410/.595
with 16 homers and 18 steals in 65 games. That helped him earn a berth on Israel’s World Baseball
Classic qualifier team, on which he’s the youngest player.
In the past, I had viewed Pederson as a grinder with a chance
for one plus tool in his bat, the type of guy who profiles as a fourth
outfielder. He’s more than that, not necessarily a future all-star but a guy
who could be a quality regular with a good bat, solid power and speed and the
chance to play center field.
Pederson, $42 million man Yasiel Puig and 2012 first-round pick
Corey Seager are the best position players in the Dodgers system. I’d rank Puig
and Seager ahead of him because they have more upside, but Pederson has proven
more in the minors at this point.
Dame was arguably the most dominant Northern baseball team for nearly a decade.
However, starting with the departure of assistant coach Brian O'Connor to Virginia
and ending with losing head coach Paul Mainieri to Louisiana
State, the Fighting Irish fell to
the middle of the pack in the Big East Conference. Will the move to the
Atlantic Coast Conference be a net positive (recruiting boost) or negative
(greatly increased league competition) for Notre Dame? Can the Irish return to their
I handed this question off to college guru Aaron Fitt, and like
Jamaal Charles against the Saints yesterday, he took it to the house. Here’s
Northern teams moving into conferences stacked with
warm-weather powers face an uphill battle. Certainly, cold-weather teams have
proven they can compete in geographically diverse conferences. In the last
decade, we’ve seen Kansas (2006, 2009), Kansas State (2009-10) and Nebraska
(2002-03, 2005-08) make regionals out of the Big 12; Oregon (2010, 2012),
Oregon State (2005-07, 2009-12) and Washington State (2009-10) do it in the
Pac-12; and Boston College (2009) advance from the ACC. But only the
Cornhuskers and Beavers, two programs that have made multiple trips to Omaha in this century,
have been able to sustain a consistent level of regional-caliber play as
cold-weather teams in a warm-weather conference. And Nebraska (now in the Big
Ten) has been in rebuilding mode for the last several years.
Boston College is the best parallel for Notre Dame because it
completed a move from the Big East to the ACC. (All those other programs had
much longer histories in their power conferences, though Oregon had a
three-decade layoff.) Coach Mik Aoki did an admirable job building the Eagles
into a regional team in their fourth season in the ACC, but they took their
lumps, going 9-21, 12-17 and 9-21 in conference play over their first three
years. They finished just two games under .500 in conference action in 2009 and
2010, then regressed to 7-22 and 10-20 the last two seasons.
Aoki has better resources (including a dramatically better
facility) and a stronger baseball tradition to draw upon now that he’s at Notre
Dame, but many of the challenges he’ll face are the same. Cold-weather teams—even
well-respected private schools like Boston College and Notre Dame—aren’t
going to win many recruiting battles for polished warm-weather prep prospects,
which means they must develop Northern players, who tend to be more raw. So
while Southern teams can reload annually and remain competitive year after
year, Northern teams have more pronounced peaks and valleys while they develop
their young talent. Competing against other cold-weather teams in the Big East,
it’s easier to make a run at a regional even without a roster at its peak. In
the ACC, a developmental year will result in a 9-21 conference record.
Notre Dame should get something of a recruiting bump by moving
into a power conference, but I can’t see that being significant enough to
offset the challenges of playing in a league against Clemson, Florida State,
Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, North Carolina State and
Virginia—seven programs that are almost always going to be in
regionals and also in the mix for Omaha. Virginia Tech and Wake Forest also are better
positioned to compete annually than Notre Dame, because of simple geography
(and both programs also have excellent leadership in place). That doesn’t mean the
Fighting Irish can’t make the regionals every few years, but the harsh reality
is that it will very difficult for them to recapture the Mainieri-era glory
the Yankees' Pat Venditte ever be anything other than a switch-pitching gimmick,
or can he be a valuable reliever for the someone in the majors?
Venditte first emerged as a story in 2007, when he strung
together 43 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings at Creighton while pitching with
both arms. He turned down the Yankees as a 45th-round pick that summer, then
signed for $10,000 after New York drafed him again
in the 20th round in 2008. He has pitched his way to Triple-A in five pro
seasons, posting a 2.30 ERA and a 318-73 K-BB ratio in 278 innings. While he’s
27, those numbers do mena something.
Based on his pure stuff, Venditte is more of a good org guy than
a top prospect, but if he keeps getting outs he may get the chance to pitch in
the big leagues as a middle reliever. He has been pitching ambidextrously since
he was 3 and can throw strikes from both sides. The problem is he lacks a plus
pitch, working in the upper 80s with his fastball as a rigthy and in the lower
80s as a lefty. He also mixes in curveballs, sliders and changeups, pitching
from a traditional arm slot as a righty and working from a low angle as a
Eligible for the last two major league Rule 5 drafts but
untaken, Venditte opened 2012 by pitching well in seven games at Triple-A
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre before he came down with a labrum tear in his right
shoulder. He had surgery that will keep him out until mid-2013, lengthening the
odds of him reaching the majors. But given how far he has come and how much he
competes, I wouldn’t bet against him.