Scouting Reports: Arkansas

THIS YEAR’S CROP
***** One for the
books
**** Banner
year
*** Solid, not
spectacular
** Not up to
par
* Nothing to see
here

The strength of this crop is the University of Arkansas’ weekend rotation, as Nick Schmidt, Jess Todd and Duke Welker all should go in the first three rounds. If he hadn’t gone down with Tommy John surgery, Shaun Seibert would have been a fourth Razorbacks starter pushing for the top five rounds.

The high school crop, on the other hand, is thin, as the state’s purest talents (outfielder Delta Cleary and lefthander Chase Hutchingson) are too raw for pro ball at this time.

National Top 200
Prospects

1. Nick
Schmidt, lhp, Arkansas
2. Jess Todd, rhp,
Arkansas
3. Duke Welker, rhp,
Arkansas

Other Prospects Of
Note

4. Danny Hamblin, 1b, Arkansas
5. Delta Cleary, of, Jonesboro (Ark.) HS
6. Michael Hubbard, of, Arkansas-Fort Smith JC (CONTROL: Marlins)
7. T.J. Brewer, rhp, Arkansas State
8. Lee Martin, rhp, Southern Arkansas
9. Justin Phillips, lhp, Harding (Ark.) (SIGNED: Royals)
10. Josh Yates, c/1b, Arkansas State
11. Casey Coon, of, Arkansas
12. Travis Hill, rhp, Arkansas
13. Chase Hutchingson, lhp, Fayetteville (Ark.) HS
14. Jacob Julius, of, Arkansas
15. Brian Walker, c, Arkansas
16. Drew Smyly, lhp, Little Rock (Ark.) Central HS
17. Josh Cruse, rhp, Pocahontas (Ark.) HS
18. Skyler Stromsmoe, 2b, Southern Arkansas (SIGNED: Giants)
19. Steve Gilgenbach, lhp, Arkansas-Little Rock
20. Matt Whitaker, rhp, Central Arkansas

Scouting
Reports

Nick Schmidt1. Nick Schmidt, lhp
(National rank:
26)

School:
Arkansas. Class:
Jr.
B-T: L-L.
Ht.: 6-5.
Wt.: 230.
Birthdate:
10/10/85.
Scouting
Report:
Schmidt was a second-team Preseason
All-American, but he has since bypassed such pitchers as Jake Arrieta
and Wes Roemer who rated ahead of him. He doesn’t have wow stuff, but
he’s a big, durable lefthander who has been a No. 1 starter in the
rugged Southeastern Conference since he was a freshman. His stock took
a mild hit last summer, when his stuff was down a notch with Team USA.
That was mostly the result of being tired after working 117 innings as
a sophomore at Arkansas, but it didn’t stop Schmidt from winning the
championship game at the World University Games in Cuba–a tribute to
his competitive nature. He was a workhorse again this spring, exceeding
100 innings before the end of the regular season. Schmidt pitches off
an 88-92 mph fastball and backs it up with a solid changeup and
curveball. While he doesn’t have a swing-and-miss pitch, he does a fine
job of using his 6-foot-5, 230-pound frame to drive his pitches down in
the strike zone. He won’t be a No. 1 starter but should become a good
No. 3 for the club that gets him toward the end of the first
round.

2. Jess Todd, rhp
(National rank:
110)

School:
Arkansas. Class:
Jr.
B-T: R-R.
Ht.: 6-0.
Wt.: 213.
Birthdate:
4/20/86.
Scouting
Report:
Arkansas has a weekend rotation made up of
pitchers who could go in the first three rounds of the draft: Nick
Schmidt, Duke Welker and Todd. Todd has the best stuff of the trio,
starting with a 90-94 mph four-seam fastball and a hard mid-80s slider
that ranks as one of the best in the draft. He also throws an upper-80s
two-seamer and a circle changeup that acts like a splitter. Todd took a
circuitous route to Fayetteville, starting his college career at Texas
Tech in the fall of 2004 before transferring to Navarro (Texas) Junior
College. After two years at Navarro, he planned on attending Texas, but
the Big 12 Conference wouldn’t allow him to play for another member
school without sitting out a year, so he went to Arkansas. He opened
the spring as the Razorbacks’ closer, and scouts envision him as a
late-inning reliever in pro ball. Todd’s size (6 feet, 213 pounds) and
violent delivery lend themselves more to that role, though he has shown
a deep repertoire, command and durability as a college starter. His
competitive nature will help succeed in either
capacity.

3. Duke Welker, rhp
(National rank:
129)

School:
Arkansas. Class:
Jr.
B-T: R-R.
Ht.: 6-7.
Wt.: 221.
Birthdate:
2/10/86.
Scouting
Report:
Welker has the most projection remaining in an
all-prospect rotation at Arkansas that also includes Nick Schmidt and
Jess Todd. His 6-foot-7, 221-pound frame allows him to throw downhill,
making his 91-92 mph fastball that much more difficult to hit. He does
a good job of pitching off his fastball and backing it up with an
improved curveball and a changeup. He has a smooth delivery for a big
pitcher and repeats it well. Maintaining his confidence is key, as he
otherwise tends to nibble at the strike zone and lose effectiveness.
Rated the No. 2 prospect in the Alaska League last summer behind
projected first-rounder Casey Weathers of Vanderbilt, Welker joined the
Razorbacks after two seasons at Seminole State (Okla.) Junior College.
He pitched just 20 innings in 2004-05, missing most of his high school
senior year with a strained back and having arthroscopic shoulder
surgery to repair a frayed labrum as a freshman at Seminole
State.

Hamblin Powers Up

First baseman Danny Hamblin
sold out his swing for power, and as a result struggled to get his
average over the Mendoza Line in the early season. He ranked among the
national leaders with 67 strikeouts through 61 games, but he also
topped the Southeastern Conference with 22 homers. He’d be a more
attractive prospect if he could play third base, his original college
position, but his arm hasn’t been the same since he hurt his right
shoulder on a slide as a freshman. The Athletics drafted him in the
ninth round in 2006, and he could go a couple of rounds higher as a
senior sign.

Outfielder Delta Cleary and lefthander Chase Hutchingson
can flash impressive tools, but they don’t get results on a consistent
basis. Cleary is easily the best athlete in the state. He played
quarterback for Jonesboro’s football team, average 13 points a game as
an explosive dunker on the Hurricane’s state 6-A championship
basketball team and carried the baseball team to the state
quarterfinals. The cousin of Phoenix Suns star Shawn Marion, Cleary has
average to plus tools across the board and will need time to develop.
If he makes progress as Louisiana State-Eunice Junior College next
year, he could be a much higher pick in 2008.

Hutchingson
figured to be the first high school player drafted in the state, as a
projectable 6-foot-5, 190-pound lefthander who could touch 90 mph this
spring. But his mechanics got out of whack and he spent much of the
spring working in the low 80s. He could be a premium pick three years
down the road because it’s unlikely a team will draft him high enough
this year to divert him from Arizona State.

Outfielder Michael Hubbard
is the only junior college prospect in the state drawing much interest.
He finished second in the national juco home run race with 20 and has
solid hitting ability and speed. He didn’t sign with the Marlins as a
49th-round draft-and-follow, and will play at Mississippi next year if
he doesn’t turn pro.

Righthander T.J. Brewer
struggled to throw strikes at Lincoln Trail (Ill.) Community College
and in his first year at Arkansas State, but he has improved as a
senior. The Sun Belt Conference ERA leader (2.48), he has two solid
pitches in his 88-91 mph fastball and his curveball.

Righthander Lee Martin
began his college career at Crowder (Mo.) Junior College before
transferring to Arkansas and sitting out 2006 as a redshirt. Now at
Southern Arkansas, the draft-eligible sophomore has piqued the interest
of scouts by touching 91-92 mph with his fastball.

Lefthander Justin Phillips
tied for the NCAA Division II lead in strikeouts (121 in 96 innings)
and finished second in ERA (1.21). Strongly built at 6-foot-3 and 220
pounds, he works with a fastball that can reach the low 90s and an
improved slider. A fifth-year senior, he signed with the Royals as a
free agent before the draft.

Second baseman Skyler Stromsmoe
also signed as a fifth-year senior free agent, with the Giants. He used
his plus-plus speed to rank second in Division II with 52 steals in 55
attempts.

Catcher/first baseman Josh Yates
missed six games when his wife gave birth to their second child, and 10
more when he had an emergency appendectomy. When he was in the lineup,
he hit for his usual power. Yates finished second among national juco
players with 19 homers at Wabash Valley (Ill.) Community College in
2005, and slugged 24 in two years at Arkansas State. He has caught in
the past, but mostly DHed this spring and probably will be limited to
first base as a pro.

Righthander Shaun Seibert
led the Cape Cod League with a 0.39 ERA and was the circuit’s
co-pitcher of the year last summer, and he opened 2007 as the No. 2
starter behind Nick Schmidt in Arkansas’ loaded rotation. Seibert also
has had elbow problems since his senior year of high school, when he
strained it trying to halt his delivery when an umpire called timeout.
He finally had Tommy John surgery in March. His curveball is his best
pitch, and he threw harder in high school (88-92 mph) than he has in
college (85-88). His success on the Cape came because he enticed
hitters to chase pitches just off the strike zone, and scouts wondered
how well that approach would work against professionals.

Draft | #2007

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