Conor Glassey: What’s up, everybody? Thank you for taking the time to come hang out and join me in a chat about the 2013 MLB draft. Believe it or not, the big day is just 50 days away. So, let’s get this going because I’ll have to keep it somewhat condensed, as I have to get back to working the phone and finishing up this week’s Draft Tracker, which will be posted later this afternoon. On to the questions!
Dwayne (Greensburg, PA): What are the chances that Kris Bryant falls to the Pirates at #9 in the draft?
Conor Glassey: I’d be mildly surprised if that happens. Obviously crazier things have happened, but we had Bryant at No. 7 in our Midseason Top 50, and I think he might go a couple spots higher than that. Bryant looks like the best all-around college hitter in this year’s draft.
Andrew (Newark, NJ): Frazier or Meadows?
Conor Glassey: This is the most popular question for the 2013 draft. Heading into the season, I said Meadows, and we ranked him higher in our high school top 100 list in November. After having seen both players a little more this spring, I’ve flipped them. Nothing against Meadows–he has the edge in size and center field defense, but I just love the way Frazier plays the game, with such intensity. He also clearly has more power.
Ben (Atlanta): With a new SD with the Blue Jays - what direction do you see them going with the #10 pick?
Conor Glassey: Yes, there’s a new scouting director, but Andrew Tinnish is still involved in the draft, and the Jays also have a lot of crosscheckers that they rely on, as well. I don’t think the hiring of Brian Parker will change anything with Toronto’s approach to the draft. They’ll take the best player available, and they tend to be a little more aggressive with high upside high school players.
Jody (Chicago): Thanks for taking our questions today, Conor. I haven't seen a lot of chatter about Matt Krook over the last couple of weeks. He seemed to have some helium early but has tapered off. Has his asking price scared teams off or has it been too tough to get get a good read on him?
Conor Glassey: I haven’t heard anything about his asking price yet, but I have heard that he’s been a little up and down this spring. Some scouts really love his upside, others who maybe haven’t seen him at his best are a little more cautious. Even in a good year for high school lefties, I still think he’s going to go pretty good–end of the first round or top of the second round.
Richard (Los Angeles,CA): This draft seems very thin at SS. Where do you think Trae Arbet at Great Oak HS could go. Seems raw with a lot of upside
Conor Glassey: That’s an understatement. This draft is downright depressing at shortstop. Arbet fits in the third to fifth round range, but with so few shortstops, he could get pushed up the board a little for a team that likes him.
Jody (Moulton): Battle of second tier OFs in the draft: Philip Ervin, Hunter Renfroe and Ryan Cordell. Who has the highest ceiling and will any go in the first round?
Conor Glassey: We had Ervin and Renfroe as the second and third-ranked college outfielders in this draft (with Bryant first and Lorenzen projected more as a reliever). I think Renfroe has the most upside in that group and could definitely see he & Ervin going in the first round. Cordell is very intriguing, but more in the 5-7 round range, I’d guess. He has tools, but he’s hitting .268 at Liberty.
Mark (Brooklyn, NY): What concerns, if any, do scouts have about Kris Bryant?
Conor Glassey: There have been some concerns since high school about his strikeouts, and that’s true of most tall players. He’s done a good job of limiting them this season, but will still have to make some adjustments in pro ball.
Juan Berrios (Puerto Rico): Do you think Ryan McMahon makes sense for Braves at #33
Conor Glassey: Tough to predict what the Top 10 teams are going to do right now, let alone the Braves at 33, but I could see him in that mix, sure.
Jody (Chicago): College starting pitchers Aaron Nola, Jeff Hoffman and Nick Burdi: have any of them made major moves on the early '14 draft board and do any of the three currently look like front of rotation arms?
Conor Glassey: Haven’t been bearing down on 2014 yet, obviously. Burdi’s thrown 18 innings out of the bullpen this year, so it’s a long way from there to the front of a big league rotation. He has huge velo, but there’s some effort there and I think scouts like him better as a closer. Hoffman impressed in the Cape last summer, but hasn’t dominated this spring. I’ve loved Nola since I saw him at East Coast Pro a couple years ago. I still like my Jeremy Hellickson comparison for him. But right now, the best bets for frontline arms in the 2014 college class are Carlos Rodon & Tyler Beede.
Francisco (Atlanta, GA): Where do you see Stephen wrenn, Demeritte and Josh Hart in the draft?
Conor Glassey: Hart is the best of the group and could sneak into the first round. Demeritte is in the 2nd-3rd round range and Wrenn probably 3rd-5th.
Hurl (Toronto): Colin Moran or DJ Peterson as the second college hitter picked? Do either creep into the top 10?
Conor Glassey: Moran > Peterson for me, and I think he’ll be a Top 10 pick.
Bryan (Tacoma): What are the chances Reese McGuire goes in the first ten picks? How does he compare to Austin Hedges when Hedges came out of high school?
Conor Glassey: I could definitely see Reese going in the top 10 picks. I love his combination of tools and makeup. He’s not quite the catch-and-throw guy Austin was, but few are. He does have a better track record with the bat, more power, and he’s a lefthanded hitter.
Not Jaypers (Wi): Conor, who do use seeing as having the best in game power in this draft? Thanks.
Conor Glassey: Clint Frazier
Bobby (Mission Viejo, CA): Trevor Williams from Arizona State seemed like a lock at the beginning of the season to get drafted on Day 1. Still a chance?
Conor Glassey: The first day will consist of the first 73 picks. So, while Williams has slipped, he certainly still has a chance at hearing his name called on MLB Network.
Bob (Reno): Is there a chance that Braden Shipley is the third pitcher taken this year? I know Appel and Gray have distances themselves, but it seems like Shipley has been more consistent then the rest of the "next tier" guys. Thanks!
Conor Glassey: That’s certainly not out of the question. We had Indiana State lefthander Sean Manaea as the third college pitcher in our Midseason Top 50, but Shipley was fourth.
Brian (Gilbert, AZ): You hearing any team link or rumors to what rounds the present and former Gilbert Tigers (D.J. Peterson, Dustin Peterson, and Stephen Tarpley) are connected to?
Conor Glassey: No specific teams just yet, but D.J. will go in the middle of the first round, Dustin looks like he’s playing his way into the bottom of the first round or the second round, and I could see Tarpley in the 3rd-5th round range.
Elmo (Harford): What is the consensus on the type of player Trea Turner from NC State could be? If he were in this draft would he be considered in the top 5 and where would you project him in next year's draft?
Conor Glassey: He’s so electric. It’s been an odd year for him with the injury, but just on his tools I could definitely see him in the top 5 of this year’s draft, and that’s where I’d project him for next year as well. Scouting directors might want to rent apartments in Raleigh next year–they’ll be camping out here A LOT.
Jerry (Swampland): Where would Bregman fall in this draft if he was eligible? Looks like injured or not...should of never showed up at LSU. 1st rounder?
Conor Glassey: It’s difficult to type this without expletives, but I LOVE Alex Bregman. The kid can flat-out rake, he’ll play wherever you put him (he played SS, CF and C in high school). One of my all-time favorites and yes, I think he’ll be a first rounder in 2015. I never saw him play in college, but Bregman reminds me of Mark Ellis
.Larry (Los Angeles): With Austin Wilson back on the field and predictably raking in SSS, is he back in the top 10? I've seen him projected down in the late teens/early 20s, but it's hard to imagine he'd really last that long.
Conor Glassey: I think late teens/early 20s is a much safer bet. The tools have always been there, but it’s not like he has a huge track record to fall back on. Strikeouts have always been a concern, and as a guy who has already turned down a lot of money, the team wanting to draft him will really have to do their homework, especially with limited viewing opportunities this spring.
Bobo (Muncie, In): being left-handed and from the Hoosier state, I would like to know if 2 lhp from the state of Indiana are top draft prospects; Joey DeNato at IU (the next Michael Roth?) and Daniel Ayers from Columbus North high school. Thanks for your time!
Conor Glassey: I haven’t heard anything on DeNato, but I just spoke to a scout today about Ayers. Big, physical lefty up to 93 mph with a workable breaking ball. Could sneak in to the top 5 rounds.
chief (batavia, illinois): i know the recommended signing bonus slots went up for rounds 1 - 10, but did the maximum amount for rounds 11-40 also increase from $100,000?
Conor Glassey: No, still the same.
Jazzmine (a meadow): What seperates an end of 1st round pick from a comp round pick?
Conor Glassey: Nothing – there’s only six competitive balance picks this year. Really, I don’t think there’s a whole lot of difference in this year’s draft class from about pick 25 to about 60. In terms of consensus guys, there’s probably 20 or so guys that most every team likes as a first rounder, but then it really starts to spread out. Factor signability into the equation and there will certainly be some surprises on draft day.
Shankbone (Los Angeles): Hunter Dozier: how is his helium? Any team think he can stick at short or is he a 3B all the way?
Conor Glassey: I think he’ll move to third base and I wrote about him in the last edition of Draft Tracker, available to subscribers here: http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/draft-tracker-four-players-on-the-rise/
Conor Glassey: Hang on a few minutes . . . need to take this call.
hendrix (oakland): Are UCLA pitching recruits Dustin Driver, Jonah Wesley and Steven Farinaro first day selections?
Conor Glassey: OK, I’m back – but I need to wrap this up. Will take a few more questions, Lightning Round style! Driver could be. He hasn’t gotten out of the gate well, but it’s been cold (like everywhere). Wesely and Farinaro are second day guys.
Ernie (Dallas, TX): Connor, Why doesn't DJ Peterson get mentioned with the elite prospects ? What are his perceived weaknesses ? Thanks
Conor Glassey: The biggest question with him is where he’s going to wind up defensively. He has power, there’s no question. But if you think he’s going to wind up at first base, you’ve got a 6-foot, right-right guy at first base. Not a great track record there.
Casey (Texas): How do you personally rank the top HSers; Stewart, Frazier, Meadows, and Denney?
Conor Glassey: Frazier, Meadows, Stewart, Denney
Frank (Denver): Where do you think Gonzaga's Marco Gonzales will go in the draft? Also, is his draft position strictly a function of his pitching, or might teams bump him up a few spots based on his hitting ability? Thanks.
Conor Glassey: He won’t get a bump for his hitting, but scouts do like his athleticism. I see him going in the teens-20s. That’s all for me, folks. Have to wrap this up so I can get Draft Tracker up and then take my dog to Bark In The Park night at the Durham Bulls Athletic Park!