Draft Chat With Jim Callis

Moderator: Jim Callis will chat about the draft at 1:30 p.m. ET.

 Q:  John from Lexington, KY asks:

Hey
Jim, thanks for the chat. What is Chris Rusin’s draft projection? All
of the recent talk is that Alex Meyer and Robbie Ross will come to UK
regardless of draft position, do you believe this to be true or are
they just positioning for more money? Thanks.

 A: 

Jim Callis:
Hi, everyone. We have six days before the draft and there’s still a lot
of uncertainty about exactly who’s going exactly where—just like there
seems to be every year.

Jim Callis: As for John’s
question, I think Chris Rusin will be a fifth- to eighth-rounder. His
stuff isn’t overwhelming, but he’s a lefty who knows how to pitch and
he has been a No. 1 starter in the SEC for two years. Regarding the
recruits, I haven’t spoken to anyone who thinks Meyer is signable.
Teams haven’t spent a lot of time on him because they don’t see him as
being worth his high price tag, though he is a first-round talent. I
haven’t sensed that Ross, whom I really like, is unsignable. I could
see him going in the second round and signing. If he were taller, he’d
be a first-rounder, as a lefty with plus stuff.

 Q:  Luke from Des Moines asks:

Pedro
Alvarez has been the top prospect in this draft for such a long time,
is there any chance left that he will get taken #1? Also, if the
Pirates don’t draft Alvarez, who else might they go for? Thanks.

 A: 

Jim Callis:
While he has been the No. 1 prospect for a while, Alvarez hasn’t really
separated himself from Tim Beckham, Buster Posey, Brian Matusz and
Aaron Crow. I’m not hearing any talk that the Rays will take him at No.
1, but that doesn’t mean they’re taking a vastly inferior talent. They
seem to prefer Posey or Beckham.

 Q:  Mike Marinaro from Tampa, FL asks:

Melville or Crow?

 A: 

Jim Callis:
I like Tim Melville, but that would be an easy decision for me. I’d
take Crow. He’s currently outdueling Mississippi and Lance Lynn 1-0 in
the fifth, by the way.

 Q:  Ted from NC asks:

Do
you think if Allan Dkystra hit in a lineup similar to ASU or Miami this
year he would have been able to have the type of season that would put
him up for consideration for a top 15-20 overall pick similar to
Wallace and Alonso?

 A: 

Jim Callis:
Not really. Dykstra has good plate discipline, so it’s not like he’s
hurting himself by chasing a lot of pitches. Those guys are considered
better pure hitters, and Wallace has a (slight) chance to play third
base. That’s why teams like Alonso and Wallace more. It has nothing to
do with their teammates.

 Q:  Jim Beam from New York asks:

If
you had the first two picks in the draft and wanted to draft a catcher
either Kyle Skipworth or Buster Posey and a pitcher either Brian Matuz
or Tim Melville which way would you go High School players or College
players and Why. I would take Skipworth and Melville as I feel they
both have higher upsides what are your thoughts.

 A: 

Jim Callis:
I’ll disagree with you and take Posey and Matusz. Skipworth has the
potential to be a better hitter than Posey, but Posey is no slouch; he
has proven himself against better competition; and there are no
concerns that Posey would have to move off of catcher, as there are
with Skipworth (though I think he’ll stay there). Matusz is a polished
lefty with three plus pitches, so I’ll be happy with that.

 Q:  Sholom Stern from Smithtown, New York asks:

What
will be the Mets approach to the Draft this year? I have read Baseball
America’s first Draft Preview and it mentioned that the Mets will stick
to the MLB Slot bonus figures which continues to baffle me.

 A: 

Jim Callis:
Baffles me as well, but that’s what I keep hearing. It looks like
another ultraconservative draft for the Mets, who refuse to flex their
financial muscle. Don’t laugh, but they might opt for ANOTHER college
reliever and take someone like Texas Christian’s Andrew Cashner in the
first round. This reminds me a lot of what the Yankees were doing a few
years ago, seemingly worrying more about winning in the lower minors
than building a strong farm system. The Yankees eventually saw the
error of their ways.

 Q:  tiffythetitan from Oakland, CA asks:

What offensive minded catchers that can actually catch might be available for the Giants sandwich pick?

 A: 

Jim Callis:
No sure things. The three best catchers by a wide margin are Posey,
Skipworth and Stanford’s Jason Castro, and they’ll all be long gone by
then.

Moderator: Just to eliminate any confusion . . . this is not
our regular Hot Sheet chat. This is a draft chat—draft questions only,
please.

 Q:  Steve from Hoboken, NJ asks:

Who are some players that might fall to the Yankees to due to injury/bonus demands?

 A: 

Jim Callis:
I just tackled the subject of the most unsignable players in the last
Ask BA on Monday, so check that out. Yankees fans are clamoring for
Florida HS first baseman Eric Hosmer, the best high school bat in the
draft, but I don’t see him getting there. California HS righthander
Gerrit Cole might get to the Yankees, but a lot of teams aren’t
enthralled by the total package.

 Q:  Matt from San Dimas asks:

Do
you think teams will draft the best player in the first 5 rounds (IE:
the memo from the commish) or will they take a lesser talent who is
willing to sign for slot?

 A: 

Jim Callis:
Don’t misinterpet the memo. I don’t think MLB is saying, “Hey, take the
best guy and spend what you want to sign him.” I think it’s more, “Hey,
take the best guys where they deserve to go so they won’t fall, and if
you don’t sign them, you get a comp pick next year.” But that won’t
work, because no one is going to spend an early pick on someone they
don’t think they can sign. I think we’ll see business as usual, with a
handful of aggressive teams and the majority toeing the line.

 Q:  Marco from San Diego asks:

Jim,
The Padres are slugging it out for last place right now, do you think
they should continue to do so, because I hear this local kid, Stephen
Strasburg, is something really special?

 A: 

Jim Callis:
He is something special, a San Diego State sophomore righty who has
blown away hitters all year. But it’s hard to tank for four months, and
even so, it might be hard to keep the No. 1 pick from the Royals.

 Q:  Kyle from Mizzou asks:

Jim,
What’s the latest on Melville? I spoke with a coach of one of the teams
Melville pitched against recently and he said scouts around here were
really impressed. I read BA’s column on him yesterday, and it sounds
like he’s had a lot to deal with this year(grandmother’s passing and
hockey puck injury). Where do you think he’ll go, and do you have a
comparison for him? Thanks!

 A: 

Jim Callis:
Melville is still arguably the top high school pitcher in the draft. He
hasn’t been as spectacular as he was last summer, so some teams have
cooled on him a little bit, but his stuff has still been good once he
got going. Where he goes in the draft remains to be seen. He’s looking
for money that would put him in the top 10-15 picks, and he might not
go quite that high, in which case he could slide. Such is slotting. I’m
not the best guy for comps, so I’ll let that one go.

 Q:  Alec from Austin, TX asks:

Any chance Brett Jacobson throws himself into the top 40 picks with a strong finish this next week?

 A: 

Jim Callis: Can’t see that at all. Jacobson has a good arm but he’s been too inconsistent for Vanderbilt to risk a pick that high.

 Q:  tiffythetitan from Oakland, CA asks:

If
the Giants got a chance to pick between Alvarez and Smoak at #5 would
it be insane for them to pick Smoak? Also, any chance the Giants are in
on Hosmer or not at all with the young Villalona in the system?

 A: 

Jim Callis:
It wouldn’t be insane. I’ve talked to teams who believe more in Smoak’s
bat, and it’s possible that Alvarez winds up at third base, in which
case they’re at the same position. I don’t think Scott Boras would
scare the Giants off Hosmer if that’s who they wanted. I like Big V,
but he’s not close to being ready, and the Giants will take whomever
they deem to be the best guy, regardless of position.

 Q:  Brent S from Toronto asks:

What’s the latest word on the Jays’ draft? Do you think Wallace will fall to them at 17?

 A: 

Jim Callis:
They like proven college players, and the strength of the draft is
college bats, so college bats are the best bet. I don’t think they’ll
get a short at Brett Wallace, though. More likely someone like
California first baseman David Cooper, Wake Forest first baseman Allan
Dykstra, Miami second baseman Jemile Weeks or Wichita State third
baseman Conor Gillaspie. Stanford catcher Jason Castro would be
interesting, though they took another college catcher (J.P. Arencibia)
in the first round last year.

 Q:  Brad from Lake Orion, MI asks:

What round do you think Big Ten player of the year, Nate Recknagel, 1b, Michigan will go?

 A: 

Jim Callis:
Recknagel has had a huge season and might even have a chance to catch.
But scouts aren’t totally sold on the bat and he is a 22-year-old
senior, so I think he’s looking at somewhere from the sixth to 10th
round.

 Q:  Doug from Philly asks:

Jim,
Read BA’s column on Hewitt. I heard the Phillies are really high on
him. Are you high on him and do you see him lasting that long, or has
his stock really moved up the draft boards? Is there a player you liken
him to?

 A: 

Jim Callis:
His stock is really moving up, as he’s the best athlete in the draft.
But I’m not high on him, at least not first-round high. He didn’t hit
well on the showcase circuit last summer, and as a result, he wasn’t
projected as a top guy coming into 2008. I just don’t see how 80
at-bats at a private school in Connecticut can sell people on the bat.
I just did a column on recent first-round picks who worried scouts with
their bats, and very few of them panned out.

 Q:  Jared from Orlando, Fl asks:

Of the projected top five, who do you think will make the big leagues the fastest?

 A: 

Jim Callis: Pedro Alvarez, over Brian Matusz.

 Q:  Paul from Kansas City, MO asks:

OMG,
Jim Callis Draft Chat! Hey Jim, if Tampa takes Tim Beckham, why
wouldn’t the Pirates take Posey? If so, that leaves the Royals
taking… ? Thanks.

 A: 

Jim Callis:
I think the Pirates are looking at both guys, but I’ve heard more talk
of Alvarez. The Royals seem determined to take another Boras Corp.
client, as talk that they’re on Alvarez and Hosmer won’t die down.

 Q:  Mike from Los Angeles, CA asks:

So what is up with Tanner Scheppers? The MRI was clean which has to be great news, right? Where will he go in the draft?

 A: 

Jim Callis:
I wouldn’t say “great news.” There is something significant wrong with
his shoulder, and doctors can’t seem to pinpoint it. Until his health
is resolved, it’s hard to see him going in the first round.

 Q:  Michael from LA asks:

There’s so many good 1B in this draft – who is the best one and why?

 A: 

Jim Callis:
I’d take Eric Hosmer over any of the college guys, though it’s hard not
to love Justin Smoak, Yonder Alonso, Brett Wallace and Co., too. I
think Hosmer’s bat will be the best in the long run, and as a bonus,
he’s a better athelte than any of the college guys. May even be able to
play the outfield.

 Q:  Dave B from Pittsburgh asks:

If
the Pirates pick Pedro Alvarez #2, can he stay at 3B? What kind of
defender is he? They currently have Jose Bautista at third- can he be
at least that good? Is his high ranking based on him being able to play
at third? Or is his bat so good that even if he was a 1B, he’d still be
ranked ahead of the many other 1B’s in the draft?

 A: 

Jim Callis:
He can stay at third base, but it’s not a lock. He’s an adequate to
average defender there, it’s more an issue of making sure a thick lower
half doesn’t get too thick down the road. His rating is based on his
bat.

 Q:  David from Maryland asks:

If
Alvarez, Beckham, Jr and Posey go ahead of the Orioles pick at 4, how
much, if any clarity do we have in their decision mkaing process? Do we
have a good feel they will go pitcher instead of Smoak? They need an
impact bat badly but of course they know as well as anyone you can
never have enough pitching.

 A: 

Jim Callis:
If that happens, I think they would take Brian Matusz after going with
position players in the first round the last three years. If they
wanted a bat, sounds like it would come down to Justin Smoak and Gordon
Beckham in this scenario.

 Q:  tony from clearwater asks:

Who
do you think the Brewers will be looking at? I think the will be
looking at pitching but is there a hitter or two that they may look at?

 A: 

Jim Callis: Athletes (Zach Collier, Anthony Hewitt) or high-ceiling high school pitchers (Tim Melville, Ethan Martin).

 Q:  Paul from Langley, British Columbia asks:

Jim,
If you had the #1 pick in this year’s draft, would you trade it for #1
next year? I hear next year’s crop and 2010 look like the best in a
decade, what are your thoughts?

 A: 

Jim Callis:
I would not. I’d rather have my guy now than waiting a year. The 2005
crop was outstanding—way too early to say 2009 or 2010 are going to be
better than that.

 Q:  Joel from Washington, DC asks:

Jim,
the Pirates beat writer Dejan Kovacevic, who is quite careful in this
reporting, has written two articles implying that Alvarez is falling in
the Pirates’ estimation, and that they’ll go with Tim Beckham if he’s
there. But if the Rays take Beckham, do the Pirates really pass on
Alvarez? They can’t really pass on the best college hitter two years in
a row, can they?

 A: 

Jim Callis:
Sure they can, if they think Beckham is better. As long as they make
the decision based on talent, I think the fans can live with that.

 Q:  John from Pensacola, FL asks:

Couldn’t
MLB have done something to keep the draft and follow process? Perhaps
limiting the deadline to picks in the top 10 rounds or to those going
to/returning to four year schools? The big bonuses given to true draft
and follows like Sean Henn and Luis Cota didn’t happen very often.

 A: 

Jim Callis:
Or saying the signing deadline didn’t apply to the JC guys would have
worked, too. But it was a way to save a few pennies, so MLB jumped on
it. Reaction has been mixed, as some teams haven’t minded not dealing
with DFEs and others miss it terribly.

 Q:  Toby from Detroit asks:

Jim,
I’ve often heard this isn’t the best prep class for pitching. I
recently went back and read a column from April ’06 that you wrote. At
that time, you said Kershaw had separated himself, but it was close and
it wasn’t a great class. Do you feel like Melville, even though, he
struggled early on (death of his grandmother, etc) can be that Kershaw
type guy from this draft?

 A: 

Jim Callis: I do like Melville, but he’s no Kershaw. There isn’t a Kershaw among the HS pitchers in this draft class.

 Q:  Matt from Colorado Springs, Colorado asks:

Who do you think the Rockies will take with their first pick?

 A: 

Jim Callis: I keep hearing that they’re on Illinois HS RHP Jake Odorizzi.

 Q:  Andrew from San Francisco asks:

With
Brett Lawrie absolutely raking for his junior nation team at the
moment, is there any way he makes into the supplemental round or is he
a lock to go in the first now?

 A: 

Jim Callis: I wouldn’t call him a “lock” but I think he’ll go in the first round.

 Q:  Greg from Toronto asks:

Just
a follow up to the question you just answered, but doesn’t having the
comp pick severely reduces the risk and encourages gambles? The Tigers
have taken a few of those gambles and have ended up with some pretty
good prospects. It’s not like it’s 100% that the prospect won’t sign.

 A: 

Jim Callis:
It eliminates the risk for lower picks, but teams picking at the top
are not going to take Pedro Alvarez or Eric Hosmer if they have no
intention of ponying up to sign them. MLB would love to see teams take
a bullet for the other 29 clubs and avoid a situation like when Rick
Porcello fell to the Tigers last year, but that will never happen.

 Q:  Parker from Chapel Hill, NC asks:

A
UNC fan hoping Melville drops, we’d love to see him in the white and
blue! I know its a gamble to pass up the money and take the risk of
injury by going to college. If you are Melville what would you do if
you aren’t offered 10-15 type money?

 A: 

Jim Callis:
Every player is different. But if Melville and his family have
determined that 10-15 money is what it will take, he should go to
college if he doesn’t get it. He gets the benefit of growing up in
college rather than in the minors, and unless he gets hurt, he’s
probably going to get similar money or more in three years. See Andrew
Miller (and Alex White and Matt Harvey in future drafts).

 Q:  Steve from Ma asks:

Hi,
Jim, Keith Law said in a chat that he heard the Red Sox might be
interested in a college player who they would convert into a catcher.
Any idea on who that might be? Thanks.

 A: 

Jim Callis: That would be South Carolina SS Reese Havens, whom they’ve loved for years.

 Q:  Wes from Houston, TX asks:

Do you think Ross Seaton will be available to the Astros with their #38 pick?

 A: 

Jim Callis:
Maybe, and there’s a good chance they’d take him if he was. I don’t
think he’d last much past No. 38 if he got that far, and he could go at
the end of the first round.

 Q:  Chet from Chimney Sweep, Nebraska asks:

Who is the most over-hyped player in the draft?

 A: 

Jim Callis:
I think it’s Anthony Hewitt right now. I think he’d be a nice fit for a
team with extra picks but I just don’t see him as a true first-rounder.

Moderator: That’s all for today, and thanks for all the great
questions as usual. We’ll be back with some more draft chats next week
before the big day on Thursday.

Draft | #2008 #Chat

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