It’s a collaborative effort, and staff members don’t always agree on what constitutes a strong system. Is depth what matters, or is it better to have a small group of players who become big league regulars and perhaps one or two stars?
For the personal ranking presented here as a sneak preview of what you get in the 2010 Prospect Handbook (available for pre-order at the Baseball America online store), the emphasis is on star power. That’s why the Texas Rangers, who were No. 1 in BA’s rankings last year, remain on top even after graduating such talents as Elvis Andrus, Taylor Teagarden, Julio Borbon, Derek Holland and Tommy Hunter to the major leagues.
Right-hander Neftali Feliz is still considered a prospect; he retains rookie eligibility after having thrown just 31 innings in 20 appearances with Texas. He leads the way for a Rangers system still bursting with impact talent, though not as much as it had last year. Texas’ system is still good enough for No. 1, as it appears that overall minor league talent has hit a bit of a down cycle.
The five best systems
1. Rangers: Feliz has a special arm and could still be an impact starting pitcher, but if he’s not, he has already shown the ability to be a shutdown reliever. The Rangers’ pitching depth remains impressive, as lefty Martin Perez earned top prospect honors in the low Class A South Atlantic League in his first full season. Texas’ top signed draft pick, right-hander Tanner Scheppers, showed premium stuff in the Arizona Fall League, and the system has power lefties in Kasey Kiker and Robbie Ross. Texas lacks depth in terms of hitters, but switch-hitting first baseman Justin Smoak isn’t far away from being able to help a lineup that needs it.
2. Rays: Talk about top-heavy. Every system would love to have two big league-ready right-handers like Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson, who both have stuff, command and success at the upper levels. And neither of them is even the Rays’ top prospect — that honor goes to five-tool center fielder Desmond Jennings, whose only issue is durability. In between Triple-A and low Class A, the Rays are a bit thin, but they have a bevy of power arms at the lower levels, led by left-hander Matt Moore.
3. Giants: San Francisco has two elite talents in catcher Buster Posey and left-hander Madison Bumgarner, both of whom should contribute to the major league club in 2010. The Giants also have depth, despite the uncertain status of slugger Angel Villalona, who was stripped of his U.S. visa after an off-season murder charge in his native Dominican Republic. San Francisco has shortstop options, some solid bats (such as outfielder Thomas Neal) and solid depth, but it’s really about the stars.
4. Phillies: Philadelphia had the depth to trade for Cliff Lee and still have a top-flight farm system. Outfielder Michael Taylor has hit .333 over the last two seasons, rocketing to Triple-A, and fellow outfielder Dominic Brown has better tools, though he’s still a bit raw. Righty Kyle Drabek, son of the former Cy Young Award winner Doug Drabek, has three above-average pitches to go with excellent athletic ability. Beyond their Big Three — all of whom have performed at Double-A or above — the Phillies are bursting with young power arms, toolsy Latin American infielders and athletic outfielders, such as Anthony Gose.
5. Indians: Cleveland has traded many of the key players from its 2007 playoff team. That’s cold comfort to Tribe fans, but many of the prospects acquired in those trades now give the Indians one of the game’s top farm systems. The organization’s top arms, right-hander Jason Knapp and left-hander Nick Hagadone, both were trade pickups, with Knapp coming from the Phillies in the Cliff Lee deal and Hagadone from Boston as the key piece in the Victor Martinez trade. Catcher Carlos Santana, acquired from the Dodgers for Casey Blake, is a switch-hitting offensive force who was the MVP of the Eastern League in 2009, and 2008 first-round pick Lonnie Chisenhall reached Double-A in his first full pro season.
The five worst systems
26. Nationals: They have the best prospect in the game in No. 1 draft pick Stephen Strasburg, plus solid talents in catcher Derek Norris, right-hander Drew Storen and shortstop Danny Espinosa. Beyond that, though, the Nats have very little help, especially at the upper levels, which is a pity considering the state of the big-league roster.
27. Diamondbacks: Years of conservative drafts have left Arizona painfully short on athletes, especially up the middle of the diamond. Plus top prospect Jarrod Parker, a right-hander drafted third overall in 2007, will miss next season after having Tommy John surgery.
28. Blue Jays: Toronto would be No. 30 if not for last summer’s Scott Rolen trade, which brought needed pitching talent from the Reds. Toronto’s top hitters, such as infielders Justin Jackson and Kevin Ahrens and catcher J.P. Arencibia, had poor seasons in 2009, and the Jays also failed to sign three of their first four draft picks this year.
29. Cardinals: Ranked eighth last spring, St. Louis traded away both star power and depth in 2009 in acquiring Matt Holliday and Mark DeRosa. What’s left is a bunch of role players and 2009 first-rounder Shelby Miller, a promising right-hander but a prep pitcher who has yet to play a full season.
30. Astros: Houston has added solid talent in its last two first-rounders, catcher Jason Castro (2008) and Jiovanni Mier (2009), as well as ‘08 supplemental pick Jordan Lyles, a promising right-hander. But the Astros’ system is full of holes — it hasn’t produced a team with a winning record since 2007.
Rather than rank the remaining 20 teams, where it’s really splitting hairs, I’ve listed them alphabetically in two categories.
Best of the rest (6-15 range)
Braves: Depth took a hit in ‘09, but outfielder Jason Heyward lifts system himself.
Brewers: Alcides Escobar (still barely eligible), ‘09 draft pitchers keep Milwaukee strong.
Marlins: Still thin on arms, but Florida’s bats, led by OF Mike Stanton, still impress.
Orioles: If Josh Bell and Brandon Snyder are legit corner IF bats, O’s could be interesting.
Pirates: Impressive depth behind top prospects Pedro Alvarez, Tony Sanchez.
Red Sox: System is very young, but SS/RHP Casey Kelly, OF Ryan Westmoreland could be special.
Rockies: Four impact pitching prospects, led by ‘09 first-rounder Tyler Matzek.
Royals: Excellent top-level pitching supplemented by strong ‘09 draft class.
Twins: Solid upper-level hitters aided by influx of draft and international talent in ‘08.
Yankees: Slugging catcher Jesus Montero ranks among minors’ best hitters.
Worst of the rest (16-25 range)
Angels: Bevy of draft picks, led by OF Mike Trout, improved system’s depth.
Athletics: Natural regression after all those rookies in ‘09; whither Michel Ynoa?
Cubs: Much better than at this point last year, led by SS Starlin Castro.
Dodgers: L.A. has spent less on draft picks the last two years than any club, and it shows.
Mariners: Still reeling, especially on the mound, from years of Bill Bavasi’s management.
Mets: Solid top 10, but the Mets don’t have anyone likely to help in New York in 2010.
Padres: Much-improved system still was down long enough to help cost GM Kevin Towers his job.
Reds: Hard to fathom Rolen deal, which cost power arms, and handling of top prospect IF/OF Todd Frazier’s position.
Tigers: Top arms are green, and organization overall lacks athleticism.
White Sox: Decent talent, but system was thinned by graduations, trades.
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very surprised to see CLE at #5??????!!!!!??????
Posted by MJ | December 4, 2009 at 6:15 pm | ShortcutI just don’t see it, especially ahead of ATL, FLA, and NYY!
And Washington at #27??? WOW–how bad would they be w/o Strasburg? I thought Marrero and Burgess would surely bump them up!
I don’t see how Washington can be in the bottom 5 with Strasbourg, Norris & Storen.
Posted by HeavyHitter | December 4, 2009 at 8:34 pm | ShortcutNot much going on after that, HeavyHitter. Not much at all.
Posted by John Manuel | December 4, 2009 at 10:29 pm | ShortcutMJ, Cleveland has two impact pitchers it brought in this year in Nick Hagadone and Jason Knapp, to go with two impact bats in Carlos Santana and Lonnie Chisenhall and solid future regulars like Hector Rondon and Alex White. The Tribe also has some solid depth behind those top-level guys. On the Nats, I’m not on Marrero or Burgess, and Norris is a low A catcher (albeit a great-hitting one) and Drew Storen’s a solid reliever, but a reliever nonetheless. Atlanta, Florida and the Yanks don’t match up to Cleveland in my mind in that they have no pitchers who match Knapp and Hagadone, especially the Marlins, who have little pitching to speak of. New York’s best pitching is all at low levels, as is Atlanta’s. I think you’re selling Cleveland short.
Posted by John Manuel | December 4, 2009 at 10:36 pm | ShortcutWhere does it look like turner fields and Oliver will rank in the tigers top ten?
Posted by Brandon | December 4, 2009 at 10:42 pm | ShortcutHow on earth do the Mets (whose depth through the 8 spot is good, but no one stands out as a top tier prospect) trump the Nats? Desmond was a spark this year for the big league club and 1-6 are all solid (with #1 more than that). I just don’t see the Mets 1 through 6 matching up with the Nats at all. The Mets farm system this year was atrocious, and the failure that is Buffalo and the Bernazard firing should have some indication about the state of their system, no?
Posted by JSerb | December 5, 2009 at 1:54 pm | ShortcutOakland A’s in the ranked between 16-25th with Carter, Cardenas, Weeks, Wallace, Cunningham, Green, Stassi for hitters and the potental of Inoa, Rodriguez and De Los Santos for pitchers. Last year the A’s were ranked 3th in Prospect Hanbook, and while they promoted Anderson, Cahill, Gio, Mazzaro and Bailey they have added Green, Stassi and the rest of their 2009 draft and added by trade the Cards, 2nd ranked prospect, Wallace, and Mortensen at #6. Seems you are being very hard on the A’s or there are 16 amazing other minor league systems.
Posted by Dougald Parkinson | December 5, 2009 at 5:27 pm | ShortcutJohn, it doesn’t make much sense when you say that New York’s best pitching is at low levels when Knapp pitched all of last year in Low-A and Hagadone pitched a grand total of 5.1 innings in High-A. New York’s 2 best pitching prospects, Banuelos(Low-A) and Vizcaino(SS), pitched at or close to those levels.
Posted by Abedin Emini | December 5, 2009 at 7:53 pm | ShortcutAbedin, I’ll grant you that point, though I will say Banuelos especially and Vizcaino do not have the upside of Hagadone or Knapp. Two different scouts have told me Hagadone and Knapp rank among the small handful of the best arms in the minors, and both have true star potential, with three plus pitches. Injury concerns are the red flags, obviously. Banuelos in particular is not in the same league as those guys in terms of stuff; Vizcaino has a chance to have three plus pitches but it’s early and he hasn’t shown much of a changeup.
Posted by John Manuel | December 5, 2009 at 8:57 pm | ShortcutMr. Parkinson, maybe I’m selling the A’s a bit short. Ynoa, Rodriguez and de los Santos are not assets for me; Rodriguez walked nearly a guy an inning in ‘09; the other two guys threw a combined 12 IP in ‘09, none by Ynoa. It sounds like you’re an A’s fan; you’re going to be more bullish on their system than most people. But it’s certainly possible I sold the organization short, too. I like Stassi, and I like Green, not to mention Grant Desme and Pedro Figueroa. We’ll see what the rest of the staff thinks when we decide on this for the Prospect Handbook. Thanks for reading.
Posted by John Manuel | December 5, 2009 at 9:09 pm | ShortcutGotta agree with A’s being too low… Carter, Wallace, Cardenas and Green are clearly top 100 guys and factor in Desme, Weeks, Figerosa and Stassi and just seems odd… Now could just be quibbling as you could be saying they are 16 and me 11 or 12 and guess their is not much difference in the rankings.
Posted by Matt | December 6, 2009 at 11:34 am | ShortcutHow about the Pirates? They traded virtually everyone on their roster, they gotta be in the top 10 at least.
Posted by Dan McMillen | December 6, 2009 at 1:33 pm | ShortcutWhat are your thoughts on Zach Stewert for the Jays? We have heard they made out well in the Rolen deal, but not much about the arms. Also what about youngster Gustavo Pierre SS, he showed well in the GCL with some tools and he was only 17?
Posted by Joe | December 6, 2009 at 10:35 pm | ShortcutHow can you honestly rank the Indians ahead of the padres? Much less have the padres ranked 22nd? Castro, Decker,Tate, Darnell, Forsythe, Liriano, Williams, Luebke, Rincon, Poreada, Carter, Pelzer, Portillo, Sampson, Sullivan, Sogard, Kullbaki, Cumberland, Durango, Galvez, and Zadwazski give the padres a deep pool to select from. With so much talent I would expect them to be higher.
Posted by Isaac | December 7, 2009 at 7:40 am | ShortcutIn regards to the Pirates, every time they make a trade, most BA readers know they got little or nothing in return. They simply have no clue how to evaluate and acquire talent.
The Reds and Mariners also had to be close to joining the worst five in baseball. Ten years of poor farm system management puts them in the same class as the hapless Pirates and hopeless Astros.
But don’t blame the Nationals for being ranked where they are. We can still blame Bud Selig for that. He should still be thrown out of office for allowing the trading of players like Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee, and Brandon Phillips while the Expos were under his care.
I think Jesse Ventura should investigate Selig on his new conspiracy theory show.
Posted by Phil Case | December 7, 2009 at 10:57 am | ShortcutDo the Tigers additions in the Granderson-Jackson blockbuster improve them on this list?
Posted by Nick | December 14, 2009 at 10:39 am | ShortcutWe’ll actually do our org rankings in the Handbook, which goes to press at the end of the week, so you’ll find out soon. Austin Jackson is the only player who counts as a “prospect” though, and he doesn’t revitalize a system singlehandedly.
Posted by John Manuel | December 15, 2009 at 12:01 am | Shortcut