We posted our Top 100 Prospects list on Feb. 20. Today we'll be rolling out a few other Top 100 tidbits that we discussed while pulling together the list.
First basemen or corner outfielders who do not hit for above-average power are typically excluded from Top 100 Prospects consideration, yet third basemen are not always held to the same standard. Maybe it's because they offer Gold Glove potential or because scouts are confident about the player's hit tool.
Regardless, third basemen who do not hit for power in the big leagues typically do not last long as regulars, at least not on good teams. Some recent examples of elite prospects with profile power for third base (whatever their other flaws): Mike Moustakas (No. 9, 2011), Pedro Alvarez (8, 2010), Chase Headley (32, 2008), Evan Longoria (7, 2007) and Ryan Zimmerman (15, 2006).
The average regular at third base in today's game hits about .270 with a .435 slugging percentage and 17-20 homers. The Top 100 Prospect this year who faces the most questions about his power output is the Rockies' Nolan Arenado (No. 52), who hit .285/.337/.428 with 12 homers in 516 at-bats for Double-A Tulsa. Though he's an excellent contact hitter, Arenado doesn't supplement his average with walks, nor does he hit for more than average power. His isolated slugging on contact (.162) hovered near the Texas League average, and despite his home park playing as slightly favorable for home runs he didn't approach even 15 long balls.
Arenado has time on his side, but without a little more thump he might join the ranks of other third-base prospects who have fallen short to date, such as Zack Cox (No. 88, 2012), Matt Dominguez (81, 2011) and Brent Morel (85, 2011).
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Separate from Arenado, why does a third baseman need to have power? Certainly, third basemen need to have contribute more offensively than those higher on the defensive spectrum, but Chone Figgins and Placido Polanco are two recent examples of better than average major leaguers with almost no power. The same idea applies to corner outfielders. We've seen Brett Gardner and Ben Revere be successful left fielders with no power. Now, clearly, it takes a lot of other things to be a quality major leaguer with the power of those four, but if guys can hit 10-15 home runs while doing other things well, I don't feel like we should be talking about how they need more power.
Posted by Ben | February 20, 2013 at 3:01 pm | ShortcutMajor league teams have demonstrated that they value power at third base and the other three corner positions. As a group, major league first basemen had the highest slugging percentage (.442) last season, followed by right fielders (.434), left fielders (.431), DHes (.428) and third basemen (.427) all clustered together.
Sampling the data 10 and 20 years ago, center fielders ranked slightly ahead of third basemen in terms of slugging, but teams today seem to value power at third base and speed/range in center fielder.
With power apparently harder to find at up-the-middle positions, the demands on third basemen will probably hold steady or possibly increase.
Posted by Matt Eddy | February 20, 2013 at 3:41 pm | ShortcutAs a postscript to the above comment: The unique set of skills that top-end major league third basemen must possess makes them underappreciated in the grand scheme of things, in my opinion.
They must hit for power along the lines of a corner outfielder, while having the arm strength and body control of a middle infielder.
Posted by Matt Eddy | February 21, 2013 at 11:56 am | Shortcut