Comments on: Brett Jackson’s Strikeout Rate Reaches Historic Level http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2013/01/brett-jacksons-strikeout-rate-reaches-historic-level/ Tue, 26 Mar 2013 14:43:54 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Jes Beard http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2013/01/brett-jacksons-strikeout-rate-reaches-historic-level/comment-page-1/#comment-407182 Jes Beard Thu, 10 Jan 2013 11:51:42 +0000 http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=18704#comment-407182 <span>And while the article emphasizes Jackson's high K rate, it didn't both to try to address the issue of improvement in K rates.  Dave Duncan, the one player the article mentioned who had a higher K higher than Jackson in 100 or more AB, did that in his rookie season, improved considerably over his career.  By age 26 Duncan's K's had fallen to a rate of 68 in 403 AB, or 16.8%, and over the course of his entire career his K rate was 23.4%.</span> <span>No one has really even begun to contend that Jackson can succeed in the majors if he continues striking out at his current rate.  The real question is whether he can bring it down and if so by how much.</span> <span>Duncan -- the player the article mentioned because he was the only one with a K rate higher than Jackson -- did not have anything close to Jackson's eye at the plate, walking well less than half as many times as he K'd over his entire major league career, and yet he reduced his K's dramatically.</span> <span>Is there anyone who doubts whether Jackson could succeed in the majors if he cut his K rate as much as Duncan did, getting it down into the 17-24% range?</span> And while the article emphasizes Jackson's high K rate, it didn't both to try to address the issue of improvement in K rates.  Dave Duncan, the one player the article mentioned who had a higher K higher than Jackson in 100 or more AB, did that in his rookie season, improved considerably over his career.  By age 26 Duncan's K's had fallen to a rate of 68 in 403 AB, or 16.8%, and over the course of his entire career his K rate was 23.4%.

No one has really even begun to contend that Jackson can succeed in the majors if he continues striking out at his current rate.  The real question is whether he can bring it down and if so by how much.

Duncan — the player the article mentioned because he was the only one with a K rate higher than Jackson — did not have anything close to Jackson's eye at the plate, walking well less than half as many times as he K'd over his entire major league career, and yet he reduced his K's dramatically.

Is there anyone who doubts whether Jackson could succeed in the majors if he cut his K rate as much as Duncan did, getting it down into the 17-24% range?

]]> By: Brian http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2013/01/brett-jacksons-strikeout-rate-reaches-historic-level/comment-page-1/#comment-406702 Brian Thu, 10 Jan 2013 02:47:08 +0000 http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=18704#comment-406702 I agree with Jake. Comparing Ks to plate appearances would make more sense. Walks and sacrifices are actually hurting their K-Rate as they take away recorded at-bats. Also, an interesting measure would be to compare Ks to total outs. I agree with Jake. Comparing Ks to plate appearances would make more sense. Walks and sacrifices are actually hurting their K-Rate as they take away recorded at-bats. Also, an interesting measure would be to compare Ks to total outs.

]]> By: Jake http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2013/01/brett-jacksons-strikeout-rate-reaches-historic-level/comment-page-1/#comment-405961 Jake Wed, 09 Jan 2013 13:57:37 +0000 http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=18704#comment-405961 Thank you for a very interesting and informative piece.  I'm just curious why at bats were used over plate appearances?  If using a rate based at bats vs. plate appearances is more indicative of future success/failure, I'm all for it, just curious. Thank you for a very interesting and informative piece.  I'm just curious why at bats were used over plate appearances?  If using a rate based at bats vs. plate appearances is more indicative of future success/failure, I'm all for it, just curious.

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