Comments on: John Manuel’s Personal Top 20 Prospects List

By: drew

drew — Sun, 31 Jan 2010 01:30:38 +0000

Joey Caraccio 6'4" 175 ish 16 y/o RHP/SS is a follows athlete out of Michigan WILL BE DRAFTED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL

By: Jamey Feuer

Jamey Feuer — Sat, 09 Jan 2010 02:05:02 +0000

Solid list and good information.
To a large degree, ranking the prospects is a subjective thing- the player's ultimate upside contrasted with his ability to play sooner rather than later.
Other guys come to mind, Michael Inoa and Jarrod Parker (though he's shelved till '11 following Tommy John surgery), but this is a comprehensive and well-thought out list.
Thanks!

By: ben witt

ben witt — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 15:17:07 +0000

Can you tell me anything about Christian Friedrich? I noticed that the Sept. 10, 2009 Hot Sheet has him ranked #8 one spot in front of Bumgarner. Thanks!

By: Ranger

Ranger — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 19:11:57 +0000

For whatever reason, Chris Davis does have a "good defender" label but John's correct, he's actually more bad than good. Among other 1B in 2009, his UZR/150 was -5.1, between Texeira and Berkman, no where near the leaders.

By: Ryan K

Ryan K — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 13:58:45 +0000

Do you think Chris Carter will be a starter for Oakland this season with the addition of Jake Fox?

By: gabeQ

gabeQ — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 09:28:49 +0000

I thought Chris Carter of Oakland mashed his way into all top 20 lists last year…

By: Tony

Tony — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 13:33:08 +0000

Where do you rank Starlin Castro as of now? Callis had him 13th in a chat, I think, and KLaw has him quite high. Goldstein seems to be pushing back with all his might on this. Churchill tweeted 70 speed and 70 arm.

Just curious. As a Cubs fan, I’m quite high on him (although the 70/70 stuff, I don’t know if I buy that), but still a bit flabbergasted at how high he’s risen, which seems partly due to what happened in AFL. Would’ve loved to know more specifics on what people saw there (beyond what’s been written).

By: John Manuel

John Manuel — Wed, 30 Dec 2009 16:27:14 +0000

Jason W., I believe you are mistaken about Chris Davis’ defense. Two scouting reports that I can find describe his defense as somewhere between “adequate” and “poor.” He’s also striking out at such a rate that I don’t believe he’ll block Smoak. As for Wallace, he definitely loses a bit of value now that there’s no shot that he will play any 3B. He’s not far from the top 20.

RE: Tabata, he’s a tough case for me, I believe in his bat but he has a long history now of not hitting for power. Ackley’s ceiling seems much higher; I think he’ll hit for more power and he’s also a better runner, plus a better pure hitter. He went from college to the AFL, essentially; Tabata has Double-A and Triple-A experience. Pretty big difference.

I like Freddie Freeman but his struggles in his short time at Double-A just tempered my enthusiasm for him enough to leave him out of the 20. He’s not far off, just 20 guys I liked better.

By: Andrew

Andrew — Tue, 29 Dec 2009 17:12:38 +0000

No more Brett Wallace in the top 20? Is this primarily due to him moving to first base? His bat is definitely a top level bat, just wondering why the no show

By: Jason W.

Jason W. — Tue, 29 Dec 2009 16:31:57 +0000

You said, “With Hank Blalock out of the picture, the first-base job is open in Texas. ” Chris Davis is holding first-base in Texas, who is a much better defender than Smoak. I see Smoak being used primarily as a DH.

By: Derek

Derek — Tue, 29 Dec 2009 15:46:00 +0000

Tabata has zero power.

By: Larry Meininger

Larry Meininger — Tue, 29 Dec 2009 06:20:10 +0000

You praised Ackeley for batting .315 in the AFL. How about a little love for Jose Tabata of the Pirates. All he did was bat .392 and lead the AFL in hits.

By: Michael

Michael — Tue, 29 Dec 2009 03:29:29 +0000

What about Freddie Freeman?

By: John Manuel

John Manuel — Mon, 28 Dec 2009 20:24:57 +0000

Ryan, I didn’t rank Chapman because he’s a free agent. When someone signs him, we’ll rank him. Also, I’m tempering some of my expectations for him. Incredible talent, but I think it’s prudent not to go ga-ga for Cuban defectors anymore. I’ve been guilty of that before. Trying not to be guilty again. Hellickson>Davis, for me, based on fastball command. Ackley has never played 2b, and is such a good hitter that if the OF part doesn’t take, he’ll hit enough to stick at 1B. He doesn’t “profile” there but he’s played a lot more 1B than 2B. I do think the OF move will take, though, and wrote a column about it in May (subscribers can read it here: http://www.baseballamerica.com.....68092.html)

By: John Manuel

John Manuel — Mon, 28 Dec 2009 20:18:57 +0000

Yes on Kelly v. Westmoreland and Jim & I just disagreeing. In my top 50, which is in the Handbook, those two are ranked pretty close together. I understand Jim’s argument of Westmoreland’s high ceiling, but to me Kelly has No. 1 starter potential. Love the mix of athletic ability, quality stuff, command and makeup.

By: MJ

MJ — Sun, 27 Dec 2009 16:12:44 +0000

totally agree about Casey Kelly being on here! top-50, maybe…must be that East-coast bias thing…

By: terry graham

terry graham — Sun, 27 Dec 2009 07:31:15 +0000

You can project Mike Stanton, Pedro Alvarez and Justin Smoak all you want but the best power hitting prospect is Juan Francisco!

By: Hal W.

Hal W. — Sun, 27 Dec 2009 05:32:59 +0000

No, sorry. Pedro Alvarez has to be considered the #1 prospect,especially now that he’s in great shape.

How come the Orioles should be thanking the Pirates for bypassing Wieters but the Pirates shouldn’t be thanking the Rays for bypassing Alvarez?

By: Ryan Kelley

Ryan Kelley — Sun, 27 Dec 2009 03:58:24 +0000

Is Chapman not on here because he’s still a free agent?

Kelly is a personal favorite of mine, but I’m not sure he has the track record or ceiling to be in the top 20 just yet, and both Escobar and Brown are seriously overrated in my opinion.

A few guys to consider: 1. Ryan Westmoreland (if Kelly is on here then Westmoreland should be too)– his ceiling is sky high and he has all of the tools and personality to become Grady Sizemore

2. Wade Davis- Some people like Hellickson more, but I think Davis’ size, fastball and stuff will anchor the Rays rotation sooner rather than later. His skill set and build is something every team covets.

3. Aroldis Chapman- Overrated, but any young lefty with a mid-to-high 90s fastball deserves some hype.

Also, is it even putting “1B” as one of Ackley’s possible positions? His skill set couldn’t be farther from a first baseman’s…How about OF/2B?

And to whomever said that Chris Carter’s defense has improved– he remains one of the most unskilled defenders out of the top 100 prospects despite his strong arm, and will definitely find a home at DH.

By: Charles

Charles — Sat, 26 Dec 2009 23:15:04 +0000

No Chapman?

By: TH

TH — Sat, 26 Dec 2009 13:49:07 +0000

I’m puzzled by Casey Kelly’s presence on this list just based on the small sample size he has provided to date and particularly considering all at “A”. ball.

He certainly doesn’t belong in the top 20 of all prospects in my opinion.

By: JB

JB — Fri, 25 Dec 2009 14:21:24 +0000

How is Hellickson ranked above Wade Davis? I realize Hellickson had a great season in AAA last year, but Davis has a longer track record and has already shown success in his short stint in MLB. Davis has to be a top 20 prospect, as he has as much upside as these guys and is the closest to actually reaching that potential.

By: steve abbas

steve abbas — Fri, 25 Dec 2009 12:13:43 +0000

Chris Carter? Oakland A’s. he crushes the ball and defense at first has greatly improved.

By: MJ

MJ — Fri, 25 Dec 2009 04:21:51 +0000

Curious to see that Casey Kelly ranked #14 on this list, yet was #2 to Ryan Westmoreland (not ranked here) on the Red Sox top-10. Is this just differing of opinions between you and Jim Callis?

By: Luke Gude

Luke Gude — Fri, 25 Dec 2009 04:06:47 +0000

Nice work, John. It’s interesting to get different perspectives on ranking the elite prospects.