‘Tis Better To Receive . . .



I was flipping through a magazine the other day when an advertisement caught my attention.

The ad was for a product that promised me the ability to be able to slam dunk a basketball. All I had to do was I follow this company’s training program designed to increase my vertical jump and buy its specialized sneakers designed to build strength in my calves, presumably growing them into full-blown cows. 

Now, I’m about 5-foot-10. The only hoop I’m ever dunking on is one that says "PlaySkool" on the backboard. I might add a couple of inches to my vertical leap if I worked at it, but my physical limitations mean I’ll never Be Like Mike.

Even some of the best athletes in the world have their limitations to how much they can improve, and in baseball that might be especially true at a position as physically demanding as catcher. Certain aspects of catching—agility, footwork, hands, body control—can improve to various degrees, but scouts say that there’s a limit to how much room for growth they feel comfortable projecting a player in different areas. A 19-year-old catcher with a 40 arm on the 20-80 scouting scale might be able to improve his arm strength a tick or two, but he’ll almost never develop a 70 arm. A big, lumbering young catcher might be able to make some strides with his lateral mobility, but he probably won’t get much more agile with age.

"Mobility behind the plate, hand-eye coordination is pretty tough," said Diamondbacks farm director A.J. Hinch, who spent seven years catching in the big leagues. "Catching the baseball, you can soften someone’s hands a little bit, but I don’t think you’re gonna turn him into a Gold Glover if he’s got a couple of rocks on his hands."

General managers, farm directors, catching instructors and scouts talk about the importance of finding a catcher who not only has physical skills but who also possesses certain mental characteristics that they value at the position. That doesn’t mean a catcher needs to be able to understand mathematical physics or be able to explain the process of protein synthesis in the human body, but he should have the capacity to manage more tasks than a center fielder would. It takes intelligence—along with coordination and quickness—to understand how to block different types of pitches. A fastball in the dirt will bounce differently than a slider in the dirt, and the spin on a curveball from a righthander will make the ball bounce in a different direction than a curve from a lefty.

"They do not have to be fast down the line, but most good catchers are light on their feet and they move pretty well behind the plate as far as shifting to block balls," said Rangers farm director Scott Servais, who caught 11 seasons in the big leagues.

Among the official fielding statistics available for catchers is the passed ball. Like RBIs, passed balls are a teammate-dependent statistic, a function of a catcher’s individual skills, the opportunities given to him by his pitchers and the official scorer’s judgment. Passed balls happen when runners are on base, so if a catcher is on a team that doesn’t allow many baserunners, that reduces his opportunities to commit a passed ball.

In the major leagues in 2008, there was also a positive correlation between a pitching staff’s walks allowed and its catchers’ passed balls, even stronger than the correlation between baserunners allowed and passed balls. The correlation is partly because more walks means more baserunners (and thus more passed ball opportunities), but it might also be that pitchers with better control are less likely to miss their targets and create opportunities for the catcher to commit a passed ball. The most glaring example is a knuckleball pitcher like Tim Wakefield, who comes with his own catching caddy. So it’s no surprise that Charlotte and Pawtucket, which got 170-plus innings out of knuckleballers Charlie Haeger (White Sox) and Charlie Zink (Red Sox), ranked first and second in the Triple-A International League in passed balls.

It’s up to the official scorer to either penalize the pitcher with a wild pitch or ding the catcher with a passed ball, and one man’s passed ball might be another’s wild pitch. It’s especially difficult for minor league scorers, who often don’t have the benefit of instant replay, so we’re left with the uncertainty surrounding the discretion of the official scorer.

While pitchers and official scorers throw noise into the data, the catchers themselves might even muddy things up by creating a selection bias. If a catcher is excellent at blocking balls in the dirt, his pitchers might feel more comfortable throwing more pitches with downward action low and perhaps even beneath the strike zone with runners on base. But if a pitcher knows his catcher isn’t the most adept at blocking, maybe he doesn’t throw as many of those pitches with men on, giving the worse defensive catcher fewer opportunities to commit a passed ball.

In the major leagues, few players play a full 162-game season. Since 1999, the most games caught by a catcher was Brad Ausmus’ 150 games caught for the Tigers in 2000, though Russell Martin and Jason Kendall came close to that mark by catching 149 games each in 2008. In that same 10-year span, there have been 19 instances of a catcher catching at least 140 games, and a remarkable seven of those seasons come from Kendall alone.

So let’s use 75 percent playing time, which adds up to around 120 games, to look at the passed ball rate at each level of full-season baseball the last three seasons.

PASSED BALLS PER 120 GAMES
LEVEL 2008 2007 2006 2006-08
Low-A 19 19 22 20
High-A 20 19 20 20
AA 14 12 13 13
AAA 12 12 13 12
MLB 7 8 8 8

Those numbers are remarkably consistent and could serve as an indicator of league difficulty, as the industry consensus seems to be that the biggest jumps for players are from A-ball to Double-A and from Triple-A to the big leagues.

Catchers out of high school aren’t used to catching pitchers with 90-plus mph fastballs, breaking balls that break, sinkers with sink or changeups that even exist. By the time these high school catchers start their first year of full-season ball, they have probably gained experience catching professional pitchers the previous year in rookie ball, in instructional league and again in spring training, but it’s still an adjustment and one that must be made over the grind of their first 140-game minor league season.

"One of the things that comes for the youngest catchers is their strength isn’t probably where it’s going to be, obviously," Hinch said. "When you get into 17, 18, 19-year-old catchers, the strength to withstand the physical requirements of the position—and also arm strength and hand strength—their bodies aren’t at maturation yet, so you just want to get them a good base. You want to make sure they have the foundations, stances, ability to receive pitches well, footwork, all the basics. But it’s really simplified for the catchers due to their lack of strength. As they mature and as their bodies get involved, they can take on more and more work."

There appears to be no discernible difference between the quality of catchers’ blocking skills in low Class A compared to high Class A. There is, however, a reduction of six passed balls per 120 games upon the jump from A-ball to Double-A, which is probably a mix of catching and pitching skill. Compared to high Class A, Double-A is filled with more veteran catchers, players who might not be prospects but who can stick around and handle young pitchers. While the catchers are better in Double-A, the pitchers are also better and generally have better control as well.

There might be a slight difference between Double-A and Triple-A catchers, but the difference appears to be small, if there even is one. The two main jumps appear to be from A-ball to the high minors and from the high minors to the majors. Again, it’s probably a mixture of catching skill and a reflection on the control of the best pitchers in the United States. The passed balls per 120 games in Major League baseball broken down by team ranges from 3 (the Twins, led by Joe Mauer) to 13 (the Red Sox, which had knuckleballer Tim Wakefield throw 181 innings in 2008, and the Reds, who mostly used Paul Bako and David Ross).

Now that we know the baseline to compare players to relative to their level of play, let’s look at the catchers in the 2008 version of the Prospect Handbook—with a few other names sprinkled in—to see how they did this year. I should note that the PB/120 G column is not really passed balls per 120 games, but passed balls per nine innings multiplied by 120.

PASSED BALLS PER 120 GAMES
# CATCHER PCT G INN E PB PB/9 Level PB/120 G
1 Wilson, Bobby 0.995 62 504 2 1 0.02 AAA 2
2 Wieters, Matt 0.989 93 790.2 9 3 0.03 HiA/AA 4
3 Teagarden, Taylor 0.996 67 574.1 2 3 0.05 AAA/AA 6
4 Tatum, Craig 0.991 89 764.2 7 4 0.05 AA/AAA 6
5 Ashley, Nevin 0.986 82 679.1 9 4 0.05 HiA 6
6 Hundley, Nick 0.990 57 498 5 3 0.05 AAA 7
7 Davis, Lars 0.990 75 656.1 7 5 0.07 LoA 8
8 Ramos, Wilson 0.987 80 651 8 5 0.07 HiA 8
9 Toregas, Wyatt 0.995 93 774 4 6 0.07 AAA/AA 8
10 Jeroloman, Brian 0.990 88 739.2 6 6 0.07 AA/AAA 9
11 Marson, Lou 0.985 88 736.1 9 6 0.07 AA 9
12 Hernandez, Francisco 0.993 74 603.1 4 5 0.07 HiA 9
13 Clevenger, Steve 0.990 61 478 4 4 0.08 HiA/AA 9
14 Santangelo, Lou 0.990 107 937 8 8 0.08 AA/AAA 9
15 Sandoval, Pablo 0.986 83 701 9 6 0.08 HiA/AA 9
16 Jaramillo, Jason 0.984 113 976.1 16 9 0.08 AAA 10
17 Derba, Nick 0.992 65 532.1 4 5 0.08 HiA 10
18 Jaso, John 0.984 98 825.2 12 8 0.09 AA/AAA 10
19 Exposito, Luis 0.991 77 683.2 6 11 0.14 HiA/LoA 17
20 Jansen, Kenley 0.980 78 650.1 14 7 0.10 LoA 12
21 Ramirez, Max 0.976 51 427 8 5 0.11 AA/AAA 13
22 Thole, Josh 0.994 75 593.2 3 7 0.11 HiA 13
23 McKenry, Michael 0.986 97 846 11 10 0.11 HiA 13
24 Thigpen, Curtis 0.996 60 496 2 6 0.11 AAA 13
25 Lucroy, Jonathan 0.990 97 825 8 10 0.11 HiA/LoA 13
26 Powell, Landon 0.987 86 754 9 10 0.12 AAA 14
27 Anderson, Bryan 0.986 85 730 10 10 0.12 AAA/AA 15
28 Britton, Phillip 0.993 58 477.1 3 7 0.13 HiA 16
29 Flowers, Tyler 0.984 86 745 12 11 0.13 HiA 16
30 Santana, Carlos 0.978 105 880.2 19 14 0.14 HiA 17
31 Walker, Andrew 0.994 50 434.2 2 7 0.15 LoA 17
32 Arencibia, J.P. 0.987 103 885 10 15 0.15 HiA/AA 18
33 Skelton, James 0.984 77 676.1 9 12 0.16 HiA/AA 19
34 McCormick, Michael 0.985 99 836 11 15 0.16 LoA 19
35 Montero, Jesus 0.993 71 611.2 4 11 0.16 LoA 19
36 Wagner, Mark 0.997 84 713.1 2 13 0.16 AA 20
37 Salome, Angel 0.995 78 665 3 13 0.18 AA 21
38 Sapp, Maxwell 0.991 54 458.2 4 9 0.18 LoA 21
39 Recker, Anthony 0.986 115 1014.1 13 20 0.18 AA 21
40 Sammons, Clint 0.986 80 671.1 9 14 0.19 AAA 23
41 Donaldson, Josh 0.979 94 828.1 17 18 0.20 LoA/HiA 23
42 Canham, Mitch 0.988 107 918.1 9 21 0.21 HiA 25
43 Williams, Jackson 0.981 96 807.2 16 19 0.21 LoA/HiA 25
44 Mesoraco, Devin 0.985 72 622 9 15 0.22 LoA 26
45 Moore, Adam 0.990 107 914 8 23 0.23 AA 27
46 De La Cruz, Luis 0.989 33 278 3 7 0.23 LoA 27
47 De Los Santos, Anel 0.981 69 592.2 10 15 0.23 LoA/AA 27
48 Johnson, Rob 0.986 90 787.1 9 21 0.24 AAA 29
49 Easley, Ed 0.984 94 815.1 12 23 0.25 HiA 30
50 May, Lucas 0.989 96 831 8 24 0.26 AA 31
51 Castillo, Welington 0.986 79 663.1 8 21 0.29 AA/HiA 34
52 Pena, Francisco 0.991 92 801 7 28 0.31 LoA 38
53 Romine, Austin 0.988 54 449.1 6 18 0.36 LoA 43
54 Clemens, Koby 0.984 76 668 8 31 0.42 HiA 50


The Good

Matt Wieters: Wieters is good at everything. He hits, he walks, he hits for power, he controls the running game and he keeps the ball in front of him. There really isn’t much more to add about the Baseball America Player of the Year. He is awesome.

Taylor Teagarden: Voted the best defensive catcher in the both the Double-A Texas League and Triple-A Pacific Coast League, Teagarden has a solid case as the best defensive catcher in the minor leagues. He rarely allowed a passed ball and committed only two errors in the minors. He has all the tools scouts look for in a top-flight defensive catcher: an outstanding arm, quick pop times, good hands, athleticism and strong blocking skills.

Bobby Wilson: Wilson doesn’t stand out with any outstanding defensive tools, but his dedication to his craft, preparation and feel for the position make him a good defensive catcher. He’s a slow runner but he moves around well behind the plate. He gets good reviews for having a strong understanding of his pitching staff, enabling him to position himself well and keep balls in the dirt in front of him with his instincts and soft hands. His arm strength is average, but he got rid of the ball quickly enough to erase 43 percent of base stealers. Wilson has put up solid numbers throughout the minor leagues, though like all Angels prospects he’s had the benefit of hospitable hitting environments since leaving the low Class A Midwest League. At 25, his room for offensive growth might be relatively limited, but he could be at least a solid backup with the potential for a bit more.

Craig Tatum: Despite succumbing to Tommy John surgery three years ago, Tatum is now one of the best defensive catchers in the minor leagues. The Reds farmhand has good catching mechanics, records average pop times of 2.0 seconds and delivers throws to second base with a good throwing action, enabling him to nab 38 percent of base stealers in 2008. He controls the running game well, but he’s even better at keeping the ball in front of him, as he does a good job blocking and receiving and shows a knack for the finer points of catching like framing and calling pitches. One AL scout who saw Tatum this year projected him as a future regular, though he’ll have to improve his OBP after hitting .244/.297/.377 in Double-A this season. At 25, Tatum’s offensive projection is limited, but he has the defensive skills to at least get an opportunity as a backup.

Brian Jeroloman: Jeroloman signed with the Blue Jays as a sixth-round pick out of Florida in 2006. He’s a very slow runner—he has one career triple and has never even attempted a stolen base—but he moves well behind the plate with good footwork and agility. His hands work well and help make him a strong receiver. He’s formidable in all aspects of defense, getting out of the crouch quickly to complement his strong arm with a quick release to throw out 37 percent of runners this year. Jeroloman made his full-season debut in 2007 in the high Class A Florida State League, where he led the league with 85 walks and was second with a .421 OBP. He followed that performance by hitting a combined .252/.374/.369 with 58 walks and 64 strikeouts between Double-A New Hampshire and Triple-A Syracuse. Jeroloman made the Eastern League all-star game, but he is 23 and has shown little power in his career.

BRIAN JEROLOMAN
YEAR PA HR ISO
2007 382 3 .079
2008 366 6 .122

The defense is there for Jeroloman, but the power needs to take a step forward or the walks he draws because of his plate discipline will erode against more advanced pitching.

Pablo Sandoval: You’re going to have to forgive me. Last time I wrote that I’d go more in-depth about Sandoval here, but I’m going to save Sandoval for his own blog post early next week. Between his outstanding regular season—both offensively and defensively—and his monster winter ball campaign, there’s just too much to cram into this post. But as you can see, even though the Giants appear to be moving him from catcher to a corner infield position, not only was he serviceable and preventing passed balls, he was above-average in that department. 

The Bad

Adam Moore: From an offensive standpoint, Moore is one of the better catchers in the minor leagues. The 24-year-old Mariners farmhand hit .319/.396/.506 in 119 games with Double-A West Tenn this season—his second straight year with an OPS above .900—showing a short swing, solid power and a balanced stance that helps him stay back on offspeed stuff. He threw out 36 percent of runners with a strong, accurate arm and a quick release, but his footwork, blocking and receiving have been a constant work-in-progress and he’s not too agile behind the plate. And at 6-foot-3, 220 pounds, Moore is bigger than most catchers, though A.J. Pierzynski and Javy Lopez have had lengthy careers behind the plate at similar sizes.

Austin Romine: Jesus Montero is the frequent target when it comes to talking about Yankees catching prospects that might have to change positions, but Romine has some work to do himself to become an adequate defender. While Romine has an excellent arm, he is not a good receiver—at least not yet. He’s athletic, but his footwork is a work in progress. Romine’s sample size of 450 innings as a 19-year-old is small because he split time behind the plate at low Class A Charleston with Montero. Ideally, Montero and Romine would be split up next year so each player could maximize his games behind the plate, but that scenario might not be possible.

Welington Castillo: The 21-year-old Castillo batted a composite .287/.337/.383, mostly split between high Class A Daytona and Double-A Tennessee. Castillo has good defensive tools, most notably a plus arm. His blocking and receiving tools are solid, but they don’t show up with enough frequency yet, as it’s one of the many phases of the game in which Castillo is still relatively raw. With Geovany Soto still under the Cubs’ control for five more seasons, there’s little need to rush Castillo.

Koby Clemens:
The Astros drafted Clemens out of high school with an eighth-round pick in 2005, the same year his father Roger was helping lead the Astros to the World Series. But after spending his draft year in rookie ball and two years with low Class A Lexington, Clemens had a modest .251/.341/.398 line next to his name in 1,005 plate plate appearances. Clemens was struggling defensively, too, committing 29 errors in 99 games at third base, prompting the Astros to convert him to catcher for the 2008 season. Though he was learning a new position and moving up a level, Clemens responded admirably by batting .268/.369/.423 in 109 games for high Class A Salem. A 21-year-old catcher who just outhit the Carolina League average OPS by 65 points is impressive, but Clemens has a ways to go on defense. The same lateral mobility and body control issues that plagued Clemens at third base hamper his defense behind the plate. He threw out 35 percent runners, but teams ran on him frequently because his pop times are below-average and his footwork needs improvement.



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15 Comments

This is interesting. The stats don’t match the scouting reports at all for Pablo Sandoval and Austin Romine. Lou Marson and Wilson Ramos are two of the better prospects that did stand out positively, though.

With all of the stats that are kept in baseball, why don’t teams keep track of ball blocked in the dirt? Instead of only passed balls, seeing how many pitches were actually blocked might be a better way to telling the effectiveness of a catcher. Some pitching staffs are much harder to catch due to control issues. Using only number of passed balls without comparing it to number blocked only tells part of the story.

I’m happy to see Francisco Hernandez is listed in the top 15. What is the future for him with the White Sox. Is he ready to jump to AA next year? Since he’s a switch hitting catcher, does he have a chance at cracking the major league roster in 2-3 years?

The best behind the plate that I’ve ever seen in person is Frank Cervelli of the Yanks org. I saw him in Staten Island and Trenton and I’ve never seen a ball get by him. He boxes up well sort of like a Mike Scoscia… Keep your eye on him.

Alan de San Miguel can’t hit a lick, but he can pick it behind the plate.

I’m surprised Texas’ Manny Pina didn’t get a mention here. I personally didn’t get to see him too much while he was here in Bakersfield, but he seemed to play well when I saw him and every report I’ve seen says he projects as a very solid back up for years to come, similar to Wilson and Tatum.

You may want to offer some drills to young catchers to work on in order to improve their ability to block pitches. With my students I use wiffle balls and tennis balls to minmize the impact on exposed arms and wrists. Fastballs are the easiest. We work on adjusting to the kick-back effect that a curve ball has when it hits the dirt. Back bowed, shoulders forward and glove between the knees is the standard to insure the ball lands within the catcher’s grasp.

What are the components and metrics of the 20-80 Arm Rating the scouts use for a catcher? I have used “pop-time” and jugs readings at 10 feet to reate catcher’s arms.

I like the comment about tracking blocking balls in the dirt, but that may be tough to get. How about correlating wild pitches, some, if not most, being balls in the dirt? That might be a good proxy.

I am curious as to where catcher Cole Armstrong fits into this breakdown. He is in the White Sox TOP TEN PROSPECTS list and was rated as the best defensive catcher by AA Southern League managers. Did he not have enough Inn’s or games caught to be considered for this?

Thanks,

Michelle
White Sox Fan

Michelle, I didn’t include Armstrong originally because he was not in the 2008 Prospect Handbook, but he’s a good defensive catcher and merits a look. In Double-A, he committed one passed ball in 469.2 innings (59 games). In Triple-A, he committed eight passed balls in 308 innings (35 games), giving him a total of nine passed balls in 777.2 innings (94 games), averaging 0.10 PB/9 and 13 PB/120 games.

However, I would just ignore Armstrong’s Triple-A numbers, mostly because he had to catch Charlie Haeger, a knuckleballer. The first time Armstrong caught Haeger on July 1, he committed three passed balls (and Haeger walked six batters in six innings). Charlotte used Paul Phillips to catch Haeger the rest of the season until Sept. 1, when Armstrong caught a complete-game, one-run gem from Haeger (with no passed balls).

Armstrong also had another game (of the non-Haeger variety) on Aug. 24 in which he committed two passed balls, but the Knights also walked 10 batters that game. Between that and the initial game in which he had to catch Haeger, it looks like there’s a lot of noise in Armstrong’s numbers.

All the scouting reports on his defense are positive, which is what really matters here.

Dennis, you’re right. Unfortunately our data only tracks passed balls for catchers, not wild pitches, otherwise I would have presented (PB + WP)/9.

Skip, I know some scouts measure arm strength with a radar gun at the amateur level, especially since some catchers also serve as their teams’ closers in high school or college. Obviously pro scouts don’t really have that option.

Pop times can be an indicator of arm strength, but they are inextricably linked to how quickly a catcher releases the ball. Angel Salome would be one example of a player I saw this year who does have above-average arm strength but always had below-average pop times (and below-average CS rate) because he doesn’t get rid of the ball quickly.

Most scouts have been around long enough to grade a player’s arm strength from observation and how it compares to an average arm (a 50 on the 20-80 scale). They look for the carry on the throw, whether the ball stays on a line (the trajectory) and the power of the throw. When you see a guy with a plus-plus arm, like Taylor Teagarden, it sticks out with ease. You can get a feel for a guy’s arm strength during games on stolen base attempts, but it also helps to get to the park earlier to watch a guy warm up down the outfield line. You get to see a lot more throws that way.

Interesting analysis of passed balls, though I think one major source for passed balls, especially at the lower levels of the minors, was overlooked. . I am an official scorer in minor-league ball. I’ve worked games in the Southern League, the Florida State League and the Gulf Coast League.
You talked about pitchers being more willing to challenge an adept catcher’s blocking ability by throwing more pitches in the dirt, but thoe pitches that go to the backstop in those cases are most likely ruled wild pitches.
The cause of many passed bballs, in my opinion, is catchers getting crossed up by the pitcher, usually because either the pitcher or catcher became confused about the signs. I believe thiese occurances happen more at lower levels off pro ball, but cannot be documented. Still, I would suggest that the relative frequency of passed balls resulting from mixed-up signals is consistent with the numbers you show for A-ball, Double-A and Triple-A and the majors.

Excellent point, Paul. I agree completely.


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