Escobar Excites With D In Venezuela



Milwaukee’s Double-A Huntsville club was a nightmare for Southern League pitchers in 2008.

Huntsville routinely rolled out a prospect-heavy lineup, mixing in Matt LaPorta, Mat Gamel, Angel Salome, Michael Brantley, Lorenzo Cain and Cole Gillespie throughout the season. The final product was an offense that led the league with 733 runs scored in 140 games, outscoring the league’s second-highest scoring team by 52 runs.

With all the young talent and the huge offensive years from LaPorta and Gamel, scouts and managers who watched Huntsville last season often came away saying the same thing: the team’s best prospect is Alcides Escobar.

Playing for Cardenales de Lara this winter in his native Venezuela, Escobar batted just .224/.289/.302 in 128 plate appearances, though he maintained a solid 11-13 BB-K mark. Even though the hits weren’t falling for Escobar, that didn’t stop scouts who watched him from gushing over his defense at shortstop.

"He can do it all in the field," said one scout. "He could play in the major leagues right now at shortstop if given the chance. He’s got that looseness where everything comes easy for him at shortstop."

Any way you measure it, Escobar’s defense is impressive, be it seeing him make acrobatic plays firsthand or laying it out on paper. Among shortstop prospects who appear in the 2009 Prospect Handbook and spent 2008 in a full-season league, Escobar ranked No. 1 in range factor, which measures how many plays a fielder successfully converts into outs, calculated as (assists + putouts) / innings played  x 9.

RANGE FACTOR BY SHORTSTOP PROSPECTS
PLAYER PCT G IP PO A E TC DP RF
1. Alcides Escobar (MIL) .971 125 1091.2 231 429 20 680 94 5.44
2. Brian Friday (PIT) .962 80 687.2 120 288 16 424 54 5.34
3. Danny Worth (DET) .955 79 664.1 141 241 18 400 65 5.18
4. Hainley Statia (LAA) .976 59 507.1 99 189 7 295 38 5.11
5. Elvis Andrus (TEX) .947 108 951.1 179 359 30 568 79 5.09

That’s a relatively crude way to measure defense, but Escobar has the glowing scouting reports back it up. The Brewers’ top prospect, Escobar should immediately become one of the game’s best defensive shortstops in baseball once he establishes himself as a starter in Milwaukee. His hands, range, anticipation, instincts, first-step and arm are all outstanding, and there are few in the game who can match his defensive tools.

As a 21-year-old last year, Escobar hit .328/.363/.438 in 131 games with Hunstville. His offensive performance in 2008 was heavily driven by his batting average, which ranked third in the Southern League thanks to his speed, his ability to cover the plate and, perhaps, a bit of good fortune. Escobar is an aggressive hitter and, though he added some strength, his power is still below-average.

That combination could lead to some initial offensive struggles in the big leagues, but if he can merely tread water offensively, his fielding could save enough runs to provide substantial value at shortstop, even with an OBP in the low .300s.

"I don’t know how he’s going to react hitting, but guys can struggle in their first year and then come around," said the scout. "He’s going to be a .250-.260 hitter and, as he matures and understands the strike zone, he’ll get better. He’s not going to have any power to start, but he’s going to put the barrel of the bat on the ball. Most of the Latin ballplayers have to go through this process. They learn, they understand what their strengths are and they become better hitters afterwards."



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Ben, do you see Escobar ever learning enough patience to become a high OBP player, or is he limited in that regard?

Probably not. I think he’ll develop a little more patience as he ages, but I wouldn’t forecast dramatic improvement; I imagine most of his OBP will be fueled by his BA.

A great deal of Escobar’s value will come from his defense. I think he’s capable of being worth 10 to 15 runs above average annually in the field, which means he just needs to keep his OPS around .700 or so to be an average player, and he has enough offensive upside to surpass that in time.

What do you see the Brewers doing with JJ in the future?


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