Peavy Possibilities



Reports from the GM meetings are that talks with the Padres for Jake Peavy are heating up. 

The Astros, Cubs, Cardinals and Dodgers have been mentioned as possible suitors for Peavy, but David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes that the Braves might be the favorites to land Peavy. O’Brien writes that shortstop Yunel Escobar (entering his final season before he becomes arbitration-eligible) seems likely to be part of any proposed deal, but that righthander Tommy Hanson is likely off the table for the Braves, as is right fielder Jason Heyward.
 
According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Peavy is set to make:
 
2009: $11 million
2010: $15 million
2011: $16 million
2012: $17 million
2013: $22 million club option (with $4 million buyout)
 
Peavy has been one of the best pitchers in baseball the last three years. But the team that acquires Peavy is on the hook for another $59 million, plus a $4 million buyout if it doesn’t pick up his $22 million option in 2013. So the team that acquires Peavy has essentially $63 million of payments left on the righthander for his age 28-31 seasons.
 
With that in mind, what would you consider a fair trade for Peavy, either for the Braves or any of the other teams rumored to be involved in the Peavy sweepstakes? Or would the Braves be better off spending that $63 million elsewhere and keeping their prospects? If you were the Padres, which prospects would you target from these teams, both as centerpieces and as complementary players?


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4 Comments

It makes more sense for the Padres to let the market play out for CC Sabathia, Derek Lowe, and AJ Burnett than to trade Peavy now. He won’t be any less valuable in two months than he is now, and teams tend to get a little more antsy as the season approaches.

From the Braves perspective, it’s always hard giving up prospects, but you have to give something to get something. With all that being said, does Jake Peavy make them a contender for a playoff spot? Probably not, not while the Mets and Phillies are still in their division, along with the upstart Marlins.

The best trade partner for the Padres may well be the Dodgers, who have a very deep farm system and have the talent the Padres are seeking. Maybe they could offer up a package including Matt Kemp and either Chad Billingsley or Clayton Kershaw. It would be a steep price for the Dodgers, but they will need an ace who can anchor that rotation. For the Padres, it would be difficult to part with Peavy within the division, but let’s face it, they are still 3-4 years away from being competitive again. By then, Peavy will be getting close to the end of his contract, and Kemp and Kershaw could well have the advantage over him.

One team not to rule out in this whole mess is the Yankees. It’s possible they could package up Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, Austin Jackson, and one or two of their young bullpen arms in a deal. If they miss on Sabathia and the Braves/Dodgers continue to balk at offering quality prospects, the Padres could opt for quantity. It could be the best possible fit for Hughes and Kennedy, as they go to cavernous Petco Park and could become the anchors for the rotation in about 2 years.

If the Astros are willing to move Hunter Pence, I think they should get involved in the Peavy sweepstakes. Of course, the Padres wouldn’t have too much interest in Pence. Rather, I think the Astros should explore shipping Pence to the Rays for one elite prospect (Hellickson, Brignac, or Jennings) and one good player/prospect (Sonnanstine, Niemann, or Barnese). Then they Astros could ship those guys, along with Bud Norris (or someone similar) and Brian Bugosevic (or someone similar) to the Padres for Peavy.

I don’t think the Padres should ship Peavy to the Braves without Hanson as part of the deal. The Dodgers would be out of their mind to send Kershaw or Billingsley for Pence because they are both major league-ready and future #1 starters. Kemp maybe, but you’d have to add Scott Elbert and at least 2 other prospects. I like the Pence idea, but the Astros have no need to move a productive player so young and cheap. My guess is that Peavy will go to the Cardinals (Todd, Ransom, Ankiel, Jones) or Angels (Santana, Saunders, Kendrick), but if he breaks down and accepts a trade to the Yankees, the Padres would be crazy not to give him up for a package based around Hughes and Jackson. The Yankees have such a deep farm system that they can basically pick and choose who they’d want from the system and New York would be happy to give it up.

I would like to see Peavy in a Braves uniform, but I question giving up Escobar and other top prospects for him. I still wonder exactly how good Peavy is. Another Schilling or more of a Tim Hudson type. His numbers at Petco are great, but just a little over average elsewhere. I would rather see the Braves find a younger solution, like Grienke, for less money and then find a big bat for leftfield and another free agent starter. I don’t know why people don’t think the Braves could compete with those additions. A lineup of Escobar, Prado, Chipper, LF, McCann, a resurgent Frenchy, Kotchman and Schaefer in center. A rotation of grienke, lowe or dempster, juurjens, hanson, campillo or hampton. A healthy bullpen. I like that team as much as the Phils or Mets to compete in the east.


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