Rookie Heights



A long list of the game’s brightest young stars—including Justin Verlander, Ryan Howard, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Zimmerman, Scott Kazmir, Jonathan Papelbon, Matt Cain, Prince Fielder and Russell Martin—made both 2005 and 2006 the Years of the Rookies.

So it surprised us when the rookie class of 2007 was on par with, and perhaps superior to, the two that had come before. What makes this year’s group especially noteworthy is . . . well, read on to find out.

As always, * denotes a lefthanded batter or pitcher, while # denotes a switch-hitter.

POWERFUL AND SWIFT

20 HOMER-20 STEAL ROOKIES
PLAYER, TEAM YEAR AGE HR SB
Chris Young, Diamondbacks 2007 23 32 27
Carlos Beltran, Royals# 1999 22 22 27
Nomar Garciaparra, Red Sox 1997 23 30 20
Marty Cordova, Twins 1995 25 24 20
Devon White, Angels# 1987 24 24 32
Ellis Burks, Red Sox 1987 22 20 27
Mitchell Page, Athletics* 1977 25 21 42
Tommie Agee, White Sox 1966 23 22 44

Young narrowly missed becoming baseball’s first 30-30 rookie, falling three stolen bases short. Note that six of the eight 20-20 rookies did it in eras of high offense—in 1987 when everybody was hitting homers or post-1994 when run-scoring climbed to near historic heights.

All in all it’s distinguished company Young has joined; only Cordova and Page did not go on to bigger and better things. Both were essentially done as above-average players after their sophomore seasons. Agee was all over the map during his 12-year career, but he had four well above-average seasons and played center field for the World Series-winning 1969 Mets.

PLUS POWER

ROOKIE HOME RUN LEADERS
NO. PLAYER, TEAM YEAR AGE HR
1. Mark McGwire, Athletics 1987 23 49
2. Wally Berger, Braves 1930 24 38
  Frank Robinson, Reds 1956 20 38
4. Al Rosen, Indians 1950 26 37
  Albert Pujols, Cardinals 2001 21 37
6. Hal Trosky, Indians* 1934 21 35
  Rudy York, Tigers 1937 23 35
  Ron Kittle, White Sox 1983 25 35
  Mike Piazza, Dodgers 1993 24 35
10. Ryan Braun, Brewers 2007 23 34
  Walt Dropo, Red Sox 1950 27 34
12. Jimmie Hall, Twins* 1963 25 33
  Earl Williams, Braves 1971 22 33
  Jose Canseco, Athletics 1986 21 33
15. Chris Young, Diamondbacks 2007 23 32
  Tony Oliva, Twins* 1964 25 32
  Matt Nokes, Tigers* 1987 23 32

It’s hard to believe with the great rookie classes we’ve seen recently, but Braun and Young became just the second and third rookies to swat 30 or more homers in a season since 1987, when both McGwire and Nokes did. Pujols was the first.

McGwire and Robinson went on  to hit 580-something career home runs, while Piazza established a home-run benchmark for catchers, with 396 of his 427 longalls coming as a backstop.

Pujols has hit 282 home runs after seven seasons. Canseco hit 462. Berger, an overlooked star of the ’30s, smacked 282 homers. Oliva finished with 220, at a time (’60s and ’70s) when home runs were not as easy to come by.

SWING-AND-MISS STUFF

200-STRIKEOUT ROOKIES, SINCE 1946
NO. PITCHER, TEAM YEAR AGE SO
1. Dwight Gooden, Mets 1984 20 276
2. Herb Score, Indians* 1955 22 245
3. Hideo Nomo, Dodgers 1995 26 236
4. Kerry Wood, Cubs 1998 21 233
5. John Montefusco, Giants 1975 25 215
6. Don Sutton, Dodgers 1966 21 209
7. Gary Nolan, Reds 1967 19 206
  Bob Johnson, Royals 1970 27 206
9. Mark Langston, Mariners* 1984 23 204
10. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox 2007 26 201
11. Tom Griffin, Astros 1969 21 200

Though Matsuzaka’s season seemed like a mild disappointment because he went just 5-6, 5.19 in the second half, he became the 11th rookie since 1946 to strike out 200 batters in a season.

Three things immediately jump out. First, just one Hall of Famer (Sutton) in the past 61 years managed to strike out 200 or more batters as a rookie. Not remembered today as a power pitcher, Sutton notched just four other 200-K seasons in a 23-year career.

Secondly, where are the active pitchers? The only post-1984 pitchers on this list were either, 1) 26-year-old Japanese imports (Nomo, Matsuzaka), or 2) Kerry Wood. And Wood’s case almost perfectly illustrates why teams no longer allow young hurlers amass the innings needed to compile 200 strikeouts. As a rookie, Wood threw just 166 2/3 innings, but figure in 233 strikeouts (including 20 in one game) and 85 walks, and that’s a lot of mileage for a 21-year-old arm.

Whether teams have it right or not on the pitch-count issue is debatable, but with the money invested in players today — not just pitchers, but players — one can understand their caution. Injuries can decimate a team’s playoff chances. And anecdotally speaking, all the post-WW II 200-strikeout rookies, except Sutton and Langston, dominated for relatively brief periods of time. To be fair, Nolan did re-emerge as a frontline pitcher for the World Series-winning ’75 and ’76 Reds, but not before overcoming serious arm injuries.

Thirdly, where are the lefties? Score was even better in his second season, whiffing 263 batters, but he was never the same after being struck in the face by a Gil McDougald line drive in 1957. Langston actually led the AL in whiffs as a rookie, and led again in ’86 and ’87 — with 262. He finished a 16-year career with 179-158, 3.97 numbers.

The year 1946 is used as a cutoff because without it, pitchers like Pete Alexander (1911) and Christy Mathewson (1901) enter the picture, and they threw 367 and 336 innings as rookies.

"The SABR Baseball LIst & Record Book" was invaluable in putting together the rookie home run and strikeout lists above.

DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN?

Chris Young and Alfonso Soriano led off for the Diamondbacks and Cubs, respectively, in the teams’ NL Division Series matchup this season. Each is a righthanded batter who possesses a power-speed combo that has tempted his manager to use him in the leadoff spot.

But the similarities don’t end there. At 6-foot-2, 180 pounds, Young is deceptively strong, as is Soriano, who is listed at 6-foot-1, 180 pounds. Soriano finished third in 2001 AL Rookie of the Year voting — behind Ichiro Suzuki and C.C. Sabathia — and we now know Soriano at the time was actually two years older than his listed age of 23. He also was playing in Yankee Stadium, historically a difficult park for righthanded hitters.

Young was 23 in 2007. Just for fun, a statistical comparison of Young and Soriano as rookies:

CHRIS YOUNG AND ALFONSO SORIANO, AS ROOKIES
PLAYER, POS., TEAM YEAR AGE PA AVG OBP SLG HR SB CT ISO SPD
Chris Young, cf, D’backs 2007 23 623 .237 .295 .467 32 27 75% .230 6.1
Alfonso Soriano, 2b, Yanks 2001 25 611 .268 .304 .432 18 43 78% .164 6.4

CT = contact rate. ISO = isolated power. SPD = speed score.

Young struck out more than Soriano did, but he balanced that by hitting for more power and playing an excellent center field. Plus, he was two years younger.

LEATHER, LIMITED

Through much of 2007, it was an open question. Which total would be higher, Ryan Braun’s home runs or his errors at third base?

He finished with 34 homers in 451 at-bats, and 26 errors in 248 total chances, for an .895 fielding percentage. Obviously that’s a very low mark, but how low exactly?

As many as six rookie third basemen figure to get ROY votes this year, so let’s first compare them.

FIELDING STATS FOR ROOKIE THIRD BASEMEN, 2007
PLAYER, TEAM YEAR AGE G PO A E DP FP lgFP RF lgRF
Ryan Braun, Brewers 2007 23 112 61 161 26 12 .895 .954 1.98 2.25
Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres 2007 25 136 91 209 22 12 .932 .954 2.21 2.25
Mark Reynolds, D’backs 2007 23 104 55 157 11 21 .951 .954 2.04 2.25
Josh Fields, White Sox 2007 24 79 47 159 9 13 .958 .957 2.61 2.34
Alex Gordon, Royals 2007 23 137 99 247 14 22 .961 .957 2.53 2.34
Akinori Iwamura, D-Rays 2007 28 120 79 197 7 17 .975 .957 2.30 2.34

FP = fielding percentage. RF = range factor (A + PO / G). lg = league average.

Fielding percentage is not the end-all defensive stat, of course, because to commit an error, a player first has to get to a ball. But Braun also failed to record an average number of plays per game, meaning he posted both the lowest fielding percentage and the lowest range factor among everyday rookie third basemen.

Two things conspired against Braun’s range factor mark, however. First, he was often lifted for a defensive replacement late in close games, limiting his opportunities. Even looking at Braun’s range factor per nine innings, though, he was last with 2.11. And second, the Brewers had the third-most fly ball-oriented staff in the NL. Milwaukee pitchers allowed .94 groundouts for every fly out, a figure that trailed just Washington (.87) and Cincinnati (.91). Again this meant fewer opportunities for Braun and other Brewers infielders.

It would be dangerous to draw conclusions — other than Braun had a poor defensive season — from the above data. Let’s expand our sample to include all rookie third basemen since 1990 to receive at least one ROY vote. Note that Wright has been added because, while he didn’t receive a ROY vote in 2004, he did play more games at third than Cabrera, Fryman or Pujols.

Players are ranked by their difference from the league range factor.

FIELDING STATS FOR ROOKIE THIRD BASEMEN, 1990-2006 
PLAYER, TEAM YEAR AGE G PO A E DP FP lgFP RF lgRF
Scott Rolen, Phillies 1997 22 155 144 291 24 30 .948 .946 2.81 2.19
Albert Pujols, Cardinals 2001 21 55 40 111 10 17 .938 .950 2.75 2.17
Kevin Orie, Cubs 1997 24 112 91 212 9 15 .971 .946 2.71 2.19
Chipper Jones, Braves 1995 23 123 81 254 25 19 .931 .946 2.72 2.33
Ty Wigginton, Mets 2003 25 155 117 293 16 27 .962 .955 2.65 2.36
Robin Ventura, White Sox 1990 22 147 116 268 25 32 .939 .944 2.61 2.32
Ryan Zimmerman, Nats 2006 21 157 152 260 15 30 .965 .954 2.62 2.37
David Wright, Mets 2004 21 69 39 140 11 10 .942 .956 2.59 2.35
Travis Fryman, Tigers 1990 21 48 23 95 11 12 .915 .944 2.46 2.32
Garrett Atkins, Rockies 2005 25 136 78 262 18 23 .950 .958 2.50 2.39
Leo Gomez, Orioles 1991 25 105 62 184 7 20 .972 .955 2.34 2.33
Eric Hinske, Blue Jays 2002 24 148 103 246 20 14 .946 .951 2.36 2.40
Ryan Bruan, Brewers 2007 23 112 61 161 26 12 .895 .954 1.98 2.25
Miguel Cabrera, Marlins 2003 20 34 17 53 1 2 .986 .955 2.06 2.36

Most revelatory here is Leo Gomez, who had a few productive seasons before fading into oblivion. Otherwise, the lesson is, if a player hits (Hinske in ’02, Cabrera every year), he stays at third base.

But Braun isn’t alone here. Even though they’re not shown in the chart above, Kouzmanoff and Iwamura rated even with Hinske, and Reynolds was mere range-factor points ahead of Braun, leaving Fields and Gordon as the only two above-average third-base defenders in the ’07 rookie class.

The indispensable Baseball-Reference.com was used for historical and fielding data.



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7 Comments

Troy Tulowitzki is the ROY…not Ryan Braun. There is no holes in Troy’s game, and, even as a rookie, is seen as one of the best shortstops in MLB. The Rockies would never have won without him. Ryan Braun is a butcher in the field..he’s one-dimensional.

I’ll take a “one-dimensional” player that hits 34 bombs with a .324 average, .370 OBP, and .634 slugging percentage anytime. My god, the guy’s slugging percentage was higher than Albert Pujol’s lifetime slugging percentage! And oh by the way, he did it all without the benefit of calling Coors field his home stadium. Tulowitzki hit .256 with only 9 bombs away from Coors field. You’ve got to be crazy if you think he’s more deserving of the ROY than Braun.

Agreed. But winning the ROY trophy itself doesnt mean anything. Look at Eric Hinske. Im sure Tulo would rather win the World Series than ROY anyways.

Nah. The difference between Tulowitki’s bat and the average shortstop vs. Braun’s bat and the average 3b, plus great vs. awful defence means that Tulo should be the ROY. And what’s the Coors field thing all about – 1) he’s going to be there for the next 5 or more years, 2) humidor effect has dappened it.

The point is if you look at Tulo’s splits and compare his Coors field production to his away from Coors field production it becomes apparent that away from Coors field he is basically average offensively. I’ll give you that Braun’s defense has a way to go, but he just completed one of the best offensive years for a rookie, EVER! Let’s also take into account that he only played 112 games. If you project Braun’s stats over a whole season you’re looking at 45 bombs, 130 RBI, and 20 steals (to go with a .320 BA, .370 OBP, and .634 SLG). Again, Braun is hands-down the ROY.

One way to approach Tulo’s home-road splits is to double his road output to “project” how he’d perform in a neutral environment. Coors certainly is not neutral, but most hitters do perform better at home.

Doubling Tulo’s road output we get a .256/.327/.393 line with 18 HR, 22 2B, 78 RBIs, 100 R and 10-for-10 SB. Pretty good for a rookie shortstop, but a shade worse than the average NL shortstop, who hit .279/.337/.420.

Braun’s road numbers times two: .322/.356/.610 with 34 HR, 22 2B, 96 RBIs, 88 R and 14-for-16 SB — or pretty close to Braun’s actual production. As you’d surmise, this is quite a bit better than the average NL third baseman, who hit .280/.348/.456.

Tulowitzki gets a defensive edge, definitely, and even though it’s sizable, it’s his only edge.

An average or above defensive shortstop is much more vital to team success than a third baseman of the same quality. Consider, a shortstop makes twice as many plays — four or five per game, on average — than a third baseman, who makes two or three.

Maybe I didn’t read closely enough, but I think you missed a category, “Rookies who threw no-hitters.” Clay Buchholz. How many other rookies have pitched no hitters?


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